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1、上海交通大学硕士学位论文上海世博会人员流动均衡管理的研究姓名：方颖申请学位级别：硕士专业：公共管理指导教师：周汉民20070617上海交通大学 MPA 论文 上海世博会人员流动均衡管理的研 究上海世博会人员流动均衡管理的研究摘 要中国行将在三年后举办注册类世界博览会中国 2010 年上海世博会。这是世博会首次在发展中国家举行。预计上海世博会的参展国家和国际组织将达到 200 个，国内外参观人次达到 7000 万，举办规模和参观人数将是历届之最。如何在上海世博会 184 天的举办期间，在 5.28 平方公里的世博园区对高强度的人流实行高效率的管理和高质量的服务，对于做好世博会的筹办工作具有不可忽
2、视的重要意义。虽然近年来上海的经济持续快速地发展，但在城市基础设施、国民综合素质、管理理念创新等方面，距世界大型博览会的要求还有相当大的差距。作为首次举办注册类世博会的国家，学习和研究特大型社会活动的管理模式，借鉴以往世博会的相关经验，对于上海世博会人流的均衡管理至关重要。组织者必须预先开展园区人员流动的管理研究，建立人员流动问题的防范体系，解决人员流动所引起的问题，确保各类参与人员流动的安全、便捷和高效，达到举办一届成功、精彩和难忘的世博会的目标。基于以上认识，本文将以一个更加理性和客观的角度，通过大型社会活动人流管理的综合分析，借鉴近期举办过的世博会，在上海世博会预测的人员流量和分布特征基
3、础上，进行人流的时间引导和空间引导设计，尝试构建人员流动均衡管理的模式，提出人流引导的预防、应对和控制措施，实现世博会微观系统运营效果的优化。本文的创新之处在于：一方面，将公共危机管理理论中“事前、事中、事后”的“三阶段论”引入本文的研究，并结合大型社会活动的人流管理模式加以归纳创新，形成一定的理论基础，借此指导上海世博会人员流动的管理思路；另一方面，通过对近期举办过的具有代表性的世博会进行案例分析，总结提炼出较为成功的经验，力求对上海世博会人流管理措施的制定提供一些有益的建议。关键词：上海世博会，人员流动，均衡，对策上海交通大学 MPA 论文 上海世博会人员流动均衡管理的研 究RESEARC
4、H ON THE BALANCED MANAGEMENT OFVISITORS FLOW DURING THE SHANGHAI EXPOABSTRACTChina is going to hold a registered World Expo, Expo 2010 Shanghai China, in threeyears. It is the first time for a developing country to host a universal world expo. TheShanghai Expo is expected to have 200 participating c
5、ountries and internationalorganizations as well as 70 million visitors from home and abroad, which will hit a newrecord in the history of world expo. Therefore, it is of great importance to ensure highlyefficient management and high quality service for such a large number of visitors to the Exposite
6、 of 5.28 km2 during 184 days.Although Shanghai enjoys continuing fast economic development in recent years, theCity still lags far behind the needs of the world large-scale expositions in the respects ofinfrastructure, national quality and innovation of management theory. Since China for thefirst ti
7、me is to host a registered world expo, it is very important to learn the existingmanagement approaches to super-large-scale social events and refer to the past world exposfor the balanced management of visitors flow in the Shanghai Expo. Hence, the organizershould conduct pre-research on the managem
8、ent of on-site visitors flow and establish anefficient risk preventing system so as to solve the corresponding problems out of largenumber of visitors, accordingly ensuring safety, convenience and efficiency for everyone inthe Shanghai Expo. This is the essential key to a successful, wonderful and m
9、emorable worldexpo.Therefore, by analyzing visitors flow of large-scale events and referring to the previous上海交通大学 MPA 论文 上海世博会人员流动均衡管理的研 究 world expos, based on predicted visitors flow and visitors distribution in the Shanghai Expo,this thesis is devoted to, in a rational and objective way, designi
10、ng the time and spaceallocation of visitors, trying to set up a well-balanced management model of visitors flowand proposing solutions and countermeasures so as to optimize the micro system operationof the Shanghai Expo.The thesis features two innovations. On one hand, the Three Stages Theory of the
11、 PublicCrisis Management Theory, i.e. before, during and after, has been studied in the thesis. Themanagement approaches to the visitors flow in large-scale social events have been integratedand innovated. Accordingly, a new theory is tailored for the Shanghai Expo to guide themanagement approaches
12、to visitors flow. On the other hand, representative cases of therecent world expos have been analyzed and successful experiences summarized in the hopeof providing helpful suggestions on working out management approaches to visits flowduring the Shanghai Expo.KEYWORDS: the Shanghai Expo, visitors flow, balanced management, countermeasures上海交通大学 MPA 论文 上海世博会人员流动均衡管理的研 究图表目录图表目录表 11 历届世博会主题. 2图 11 上海世博会规划红线范围示意图. 4图 21 大型社会活动人员流动管理模型. 16图 31 爱知世博会场地规划图. 21图 32 爱知世博会参观频次图. 22图 33 爱知世博会海外参观者来源构成图. 22图 34 爱知世博会日本参观者来源构成图. 23表 31 爱知世博会参观人次最高十天表. 23图 35 爱知世博会参观人次推移图. 24图 36 爱知世博会参观人次周波动指数图.
