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1、 Sales Forecasting Sales Forecasting銷售預測銷售預測HengAn Consumer Products 恒安消费产品 Sales Training 销售培训1Sales ForecastingKey Concept 主要觀點 Sales forecasting is the process of organizing and analyzing information in a way that makes it possible to estimate future sales Sales forecasting is the responsibility
2、of the individual salesman Salesman are accountable for the accuracy of their forecast 銷售預測就是利用掌 握的信息來盡可能地 分析未來的銷售狀況 的過程 銷售預測需要每個銷 售人員獨立負責 銷售人員需确保預測 的准确性2Sales ForecastingWhy Do A Sales Forecast?為什么要做銷售預測呢? When done well it provides sales management with a management tool to review trends in the ma
3、rket, it helps track and report opportunities and ensures product availability 如果這項工作做好了它將成為銷售管理者用來展 望市場發展趨勢的有力工具而且可以幫助他們跟 蹤并發現市場机會從而确保公司的發展3Sales ForecastingBenefits of Sales Forecasting 銷售預測的好處 Factory Planning Becomes More Efficient Improves material planning and supplier relationships reduces le
4、ad time and material costs Improves management of Work in Process lower cost and lower inventory Better Control of Finished Goods Inventory Lower inventory level improves profitability High levels of obsolete products is a profit nightmare 工厂的計划變的更有效 改進原料計划改善 与供貨商的關系 縮短交貨期降低成本 改進管理的工作流程 低成本 低庫存 更好的控
5、制成品庫存 降低庫存增強盈利 大量的廢品成為你賺錢的 惡夢4Sales Forecasting More efficient utilization of workforce Lower manufacturing cost Provides Management an Early “Snapshot” of Business Performance Sales on plan? Enough business activity to recover costs and expenses? Improves Response Time and On Time Delivery Right pr
6、oducts in the right place at the right timeBenefits of Sales Forecasting 銷售預測的好處 更有效的提高生產線的利用 率 生产成本降低 它是銷售部門業績表現的前 期寫照，能让管理预先了解 銷售是否按計划照常進行 是否有足夠的業務量來保証 盈虧平衡 提高反饋時間和准时送貨率 所需的產品准時送到目的地5Sales ForecastingUse of Sales Forecasts 銷售預測的應用 Production production scheduling inventory control Purchasing deter
7、mination of procurement requirements scheduling of purchases to get favorable prices Marketing formulation of marketing strategies for products setting of sales quotas scheduling of advertising expenditures and sales promotions 生產 生產計划 庫存控制 采購 确定采購需求 編排采購計划以便 獲得更优惠的价格 營銷 制定公司的產品營銷 策略 設定銷售額 制定廣告費用計划和
8、 促銷計划6Sales Forecasting Personnel planning of manpower requirements Finance establishing of operating budgets cash flow planning,capital budget / expenditure decisions Top Management overall planning and control of operations of the companyUse of Sales Forecasts 銷售預測的應用 人事 編排人力資源計划 財務 制定運作費用 現金流計划 資
9、金 預決算方案 高层管理 綜合分析公司的所 有計划并負責公司 的營運7Sales ForecastingInfluences of Forecast Accuracy 影響預測准确性的因素 Factors that influence forecast accuracy: Quality of customer provided information Quality of salesman analysis of customer provided information Availability of product demand history 影響預測准确性的因素 客戶提供的信息的質量
10、 業務員分析客戶所提供的信息的質量 有可利用的產品需求歷史紀錄8Sales Forecasting Other available history (i.e., new products, design changes, changes in customer base, promotional actions, economic indicators) Including right group of people in forecast discussions: a team effort is required (Sales, Purchasing/Supply and Manufact
11、uring) Discussion: Other influences on forecast accuracyInfluences of Forecast Accuracy 影響預測准确性的因素 其它可利用的歷史數据 （諸如新產品 設 計變化 客戶群的變 化 促銷計划 經濟 指標） 還包括要有一組人在負 責此事需要一個團 隊努力去做（銷售 采購供應和制造 ） 討論還有其它因素 影響預測的准确性嗎?9Sales ForecastingComponents of Demand 需求的組成因素 Accuracy of each component of demand is essential to
12、 accurate sales forecasting Specific Product (type, size, color, etc) Quantity Required Delivery Date Accuracy can be improved by understanding factors of demand and removing uncertainty of demand 只有保証每個需求環節 的准确性才能确保銷 售預測的准确性 具体產品（形式 尺寸 顏色等） 數量 送貨時間 通過找出影響需求的因 素并消除需求的不确定 性提高預測的准确性10Sales Forecasting
13、Demand Factors 影響需求的因素 Trend growth or decline over an extended period of time Cyclical wavelike fluctuation around the trend Seasonal pattern of change that repeats itself year after year Random not accounted for by the other components (trend, cyclical, or seasonal). 趨勢 未來一段時間是否增 長還是衰退 周期性 在發展的趨勢中
14、出現 的波浪式的波動 季節性 年复一年不斷重复的 模式 隨机性 其它因素（除了以上提到 的因素）11Sales ForecastingDiscussion: Demand 討論: 需求問題 Is there a “Cyclical” factor in Sanitary Products sales? Discuss examples Is there a “Seasonal” pattern in Sanitary Products sales? Discuss examples Give some examples of “Random” factors in Sanitary Produ
15、cts sales 卫生产品的銷售是否 有周期性因素呢 討論并舉例說明 本公司的銷售是否受 到季節性因素的影響 呢 討論并舉例說明 大家來舉例說明本公 司的銷售是否有些隨 机性的因素12Sales ForecastingWays to Reduce Uncertainty 減少預測的不确定性的方法 Continuously ask your customer about demand requirements Ask probing, specific questions Talk with multiple sources Purchasing / Buyers Planning Sales 連續的調查清楚客戶 的需求 提出探究性的、具体 的問題 从多种渠道了解 采購買家 計划 銷售13Sales Forecasting Get to know the “customers customer” Analyze (an
