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1、Asia PerspectivesMACRO MATTERS7 December 2004SummaryASIAWinner LeeWeekly regional funds flowsNet foreign equity funds flows into the Asia-6 improved slightly to US$106.4m last week from US$98.0m the week before.Page 3PHILIPPINESMun Hon ThamInflation hits year high at 7.6%November consumer prices ros
2、e at the fastest pace so far this year, up 7.6% y-y. The central bank has only recently shown greater inclination towards raising its policy rate. Expect further upside pressure on the 91-MARKET UPDATEday T-bill rate.Page 5THAILANDKasem PrunratanamalaThe rally has begunWe noted earlier that the Thai
3、 stock market generally performs well three months before general elections. The rally has started, and we believe it will continue until after the election in mid-February. Our picks areCHINABBL, JAS, PSL, SHIN, SCC, TISCO, and TAC.Page 6TELECOMMUNICATIONSMarvin LoChina Mobile (941 HK)New CEO, same
4、 advantages. Outperform HK$30.00Wang Jianzhou is a bonus for China Mobile (CM) in terms of its battle with China Unicoms CDMA. CMs competitive advantages, such as its high quality subscriber base and its ability to raise dividend payouts, areHONG KONGunchanged.Page 8CONSUMER/HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTSMohan
5、SinghTechtronic (669 HK)Selling like hotcakes. Outperform HK$22.50US magazine Consumer Reports named the Ryobi power tool kit as its best buy in this segment again. This will add impetus to sales during the gift-giving season. Launched in October, The Ryobi One+ System is definitely a best seller.Pa
6、ge 10PROPERTYAdrian NganCheung Kong (1 HK)Sturdy foundations. Market perform HK$82.19The recent surge in Hutchisons share price and higher valuation of its residential land bank prompts us to raise Cheung Kongs price target. Hutchison will continue to be the stocks principal share price driver.KOREA
7、Market perform intact.Page 12TECHNOLOGYSimon LeeDaejin DMP (065690 KS)Poised for colourful growth.SECs aggressive strategy in the laser printer segment combined with Daejin DMPs expanded China production facilities positions the company for both top-line growth and cost structure improvements. Page
8、16(Please refer to the important notice on the back page)7 December 2004INDONESIABANKSTjandra LienandjajaBank NISP (NISP IJ)Limited upside. Market perform Rp875OCBCs entry into NISP in March and a more recent plan to raise its stake to 51% through a tender offer has resulted in an 82% price rise. Th
9、at said, we adopt a more cautious stance despite positive sentiment. We cutPHILIPPINESour rating to Market perform.Page 18CONSUMER STAPLE/FB BloombergAnalystWinner Lee BNP Paribas Peregrine Securities Ltd (852) 2825 1253 3ASIA PERSPECTIVES7 December 2004Further analysisNet weekly domestic funds flow
10、s(US$ m)TaiwanDomesticKoreaInstitutionalKoreaRetailThailandInstitutionalThailandRetailIndiaMututal fundsJapanAll fin20041923 July2630 July26 August913 August1620 August2327 August30 August3 September610 September1317 September2024 September27 September1 October48 October1115 October1822 October2529
11、October15 November812 November1519 November2226 November29 November 3 December(9.7)75.993.231.1222.366.430.995.330.1148.7(24.3)93.4(160.1)(67.1)(72.9)108.9(8.7)26.8(44.0)(31.5)(55.3)33.9(62.0)158.3229.212.7(149.8)(571.4)139.3(110.6)122.243.0(335.9)57.6(143.5)300.5245.0(180.4)(93.7)255.9(307.3)(344.8
12、)(283.6)(681.9)(228.2)(308.0)(64.3)(176.7)(522.4)(21.4)(94.5)(819.3)890.1148.6(15.1)(566.0)(431.2)(12.0)137.6(56.1)(2.1)(3.0)10.110.0(3.6)29.7(30.7)3.8(103.6)(88.5)(22.2)(4.1)(57.2)(7.8)(35.8)93.0(0.7)(19.2)(95.8)(32.5)98.742.457.179.7(44.9)(66.6)(46.6)(80.1)(116.8)(40.4)(69.8)(154.4)170.6(26.9)195.
13、7(67.3)(53.4)(190.1)(97.6)(127.7)(39.7)(61.7)(38.4)(25.8)20.59.149.03.9(27.0)(21.5)(31.4)(72.6)(63.6)(25.5)60.931.0(50.8)(53.4)(49.9)(65.2)(87.5)(119.4)(442.6)(327.5)(110.2)(579.0)(1,953.0)(2,007.6)(815.4)(349.1)(1,041.2)(629.9)(769.1)(784.0)260.4(3,017.5)(1,271.5)(720.6)214.2naNote: Japans foreign
14、and domestic funds flows weekly data is only up to 26 November 2004 (source: Bloomberg). Indias foreign fund flows and domestic mutual fund flows data up to 1 December 2004 (source: CEIC). Sources: CEIC; BloombergWeekly index changesChange (%)TaiwanTWIKoreaKOSPIThailandSETIndonesiaJCIPhilippinesPSEI
15、ndiaBSEAsia x JPMSCIJapanNikkei 225200423 July30 July6 August13 August20 August27 August3 September10 September17 September24 September1 October8 October15 October22 October29 October5 November12 November19 November26 November3 December(2.3)0.9(0.4)(0.2)4.33.1(0.6)1.5(0.5)1.30.92.6(4.6)(0.8)(2.1)4.9
16、(0.2)1.8(4.1)2.0(0.3)(0.3)(0.2)5.71.52.91.31.91.4(1.9)1.74.2(4.5)(1.6)0.93.01.9(1.1)(1.0)2.80.4(1.8)(4.0)(3.6)1.63.61.41.84.4(2.1)1.02.3(4.1)1.6(4.9)1.30.71.8(0.4)2.31.4(1.2)(0.4)0.3(0.7)(0.5)5.31.42.10.62.02.40.2(0.8)1.53.54.50.03.31.70.51.6(0.5)0.9(0.5)(0.1)2.97.6(4.0)4.91.42.8(3.0)(1.1)3.2(0.1)(4.1)3.01.00.22.51.90.5(1.8)(0.7)1.02.02.93.6(0.6)2.71.8(1.6)(0.8)1.13.31.10.11.24.80.10.00.20.01.62.51.11.71.9(1.3)1.22.2(3.2
