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1、Dynamic Carbon Emission Permit Prices and Emission Trade Peter Russ Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Sevilla, Spain Draft - not to be quoted without permission of the author Abstract The evaluation of the cost of reduction for the di
2、fferent region and the resulting emission permit prices is a typical model application. The usual approach to analyze emission trading is to obtain marginal emission reduction cost curves from the models and subsequently carry out a static, ex- post analysis of emission trading based on these cost c
3、urves. The drawback of this approach is that effects resulting from the introduction of different carbon constraints (change in prices, demands, etc) are not taken into account and ambiguity remains surrounding the timing of emission reductions and the introduction of shadow carbon values or permit
4、prices. These drawbacks can be overcome by endogenizing the permit prices. The equilibrium emission permit price is being calculated within the model for each point in time (ie each year) for the given constraints. The results are time profiles for permit prices which in themselves are analytically
5、significant. This dynamic permit prices approach opens the way for analysis involving permit banking and enables discounting in the calculation of both emission reduction costs and the value of permit sales/purchases. Introduction Discussions on the future energy systems today mainly a centered arou
6、nd the climate change issue. The threat of climate change was big enough to bring about the Kyoto protocol. A major issue within the negotiations after Kyoto is emission trading. Trading emissions is offering attractive advantages, however, for the realization of the concept quantitative analysis is
7、 necessary to supply policy makers with the cost, advantages and drawbacks of different schemes. The evaluation of the cost of reduction for the different region and the resulting emission permit prices is a typical model application. POLES (Prospective Outlook for Long-term Energy Systems) of the E
8、uropean Commission is a simulation model for the development of long-term (2030) energy supply and demand scenarios for the different regions of the world (currently 38 regions) 1,2. The POLES model recently has been extensively used to carry out analyses of CO2 reduction strategies and emission tra
9、ding 3. The usual approach to analyze emission trading is to obtain marginal emission reduction cost curves from the models and subsequently carry out a static, ex-post analysis of emission trading based on these cost curves. The drawback of this approach is that effects resulting from the introduct
10、ion of different carbon constraints (change in prices, demands, etc) are not taken into account and ambiguity remains surrounding the timing of emission reductions and the introduction of shadow carbon values or permit prices. Also for the analyses carried out using the POLES model 3, the issues of
11、the Marginal Abatement Costs and of the International Carbon Value derived from international flexibility P. Russ- Dynamic Carbon Emission Permit Prices and Emission Trade - 2 - system were dealt with in a comparative statics approach. The methodology used can be described as follows: entitlements a
12、re exogenously given for one benchmark year (2010 for the analysis of Kyoto protocol, scenarios for other benchmark years); Marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves for the countries under concern are derived by the introduction of different levels of a shadow carbon tax or carbon value, introduced at t
13、he beginning of the solution period in order to allow for as complete accounting of long term impacts as possible, with emissions obtained as an output; finally the impacts of flexibility systems are analyzed outside of the model as trade opportunities arising from differences in marginal abatement
14、costs. The market clearance is done for the defined target year (usually 2010 for Kyoto analyses). This methodology provides a consistent framework for a static comparison of abatement costs among countries or regions and for the analysis of solutions involving international flexibility namely emiss
15、ion trading. Since the analysis of the trade is done outside of the model effects resulting from the introduction of different carbon constraints (change in prices, demands, etc) are not taken into account. Another drawback of this approach is, that this methodology doesnt provide a framework for an
16、 intertemporal analysis of the carbon value associated to emission paths with different targets (e.g. 2010, 2020, 2030). Intertemporal or “When” flexibility issues like emission trading at several points in time can not be analyzed. A trade with market clearing (demand equals supply at the permit price) can only be looked at for the target year. Only for this year emission targets and hence a demand
