《伯南克：美国经济正全面改善但就业复苏缓慢》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《伯南克：美国经济正全面改善但就业复苏缓慢（7页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、1伯南克：美国伯南克：美国经济经济正全面改善但就正全面改善但就业业复复苏缓苏缓慢慢2 月 9 日，美联储主席伯南克参加新国会的经济状况听证会时指出，美国经济正在全面改善，但就业市场回归正常可能需要 10 年的时间。现摘译如下：（一）（一）经济经济复复苏苏全面加全面加强强最近出现的迹象显示，美国经济经过近两年的复苏终于呈现全面走强的局面。伯南克说：“最近我们看到越来越多的证据显示，在消费者开支和企业开支方面，一个自我加强的复苏或许正在稳定下来。很明显，在去年第四季度，实际消费者开支，按年率计算，增幅超过4%。虽然这里面有很大一部分来自强劲的汽车销售，但新的消费者开支数据显示，增长基础看来相当广泛
2、。 ”伯南克还提到，企业在设备和软件方面的投资在去年大部分时间里保持了强劲的增长。除了建筑业还比较疲软之外，家庭、企业的信心得到了改善。再加上宽松的货币政策和有利的金融环境以及银行放贷意愿的加强，伯南克说，诸多因素显示，美国经济将在 2011 年以比 2010 年更快的步伐复苏。（二）失（二）失业业率要回落到率要回落到 5%需要需要 10 年年伯南克在谈到就业市场的复苏前景时显得信心不足。在过去的两个月，美国失业率从 9.8%下降到 9%非常令人鼓舞，但是在 2008 年和 2009 年的两年中，美国总共流失了近 900 万个工作，而去年新增工作数量只有 100 万多一点。按照目前的经济增速，
3、失业率要下降到25%或者 6%可能需要 10 年的时间。伯南克说：“要满足每年新增就业人口对工作的需求，经济增长速度需要达到 2.5%。如果经济增速达到 4.5%，那么，也需要 4、5 年的时间才能够把失业率降低到 5%左右。 ”美国经济去年第四季度增长了32%。如果按照这个速度，每年失业率可以下降 0.3 或者 0.4 个百分点，这样，要从 9%下降到 5%就需要有 10 年。失业率下降速度的快慢关键取决于经济增长的快慢。伯南克预计，今年经济增速会在 3.5%到 4%之间。超过 4%的可能性很小。（三）通（三）通胀胀水平水平过过低低众议院预算委员会主席保罗瑞安(PaulRyan)一向对美联储
4、持批评态度。瑞安在会上对美联储采取的极为宽松的货币政策可能引发通货膨胀快速上涨非常担心。他怀疑美联储及时发现通胀走向以及及时收回刺激措施的能力。伯南克的回应是，目前的通胀压力主要来自新兴经济体。近期的油价、食品价格和许多大宗商品价格的上涨主要是新兴市场需求强劲引起的。美国虽然也受到波及，但总的来看，通胀水平还比较低，通胀预期也比较稳定。去年的核心通胀，也就是排除了能源和食品价格之外的消费物价指数，只增加了 0.7%，远低于2007 年的 2.5%。（四）美（四）美联储联储量化量化宽宽松松货币货币政策的退出关政策的退出关键键是是时时机把握机把握伯南克表示，美联储有能力在通胀回升的时候及时执行“退
5、出”计划。伯南克说：“我们当然不能让极为宽松的货币政策永远持续下去。到某个时候，这个政策是会引起通胀的担忧的。我们需要撤出这些刺3激措施。怎么撤出，最困难的是选择最佳的撤出时机。 ”美联储一旦确定了退出的时机，就会把短期利率恢复到正常水平，同时提高银行存放在央行的剩余资金的利率，引导银行收缩放贷规模。此外，美联储还有其它一些减少流动性，回拢资金的工具。美联储有信心按步就班地执行退出计划。信息来源：http:/www.federalreserve.govChairman Ben S. Bernanke The Economic Outlook and Monetary and Fiscal Po
6、licy Before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, D.C. February 9, 2011Chairman Ryan, Ranking Member Van Hollen, and other members of the Committee, I am pleased to have this opportunity to offer my views on the economic outlook, monetary policy, and issues pertaini
7、ng to the federal budget. The Economic OutlookThe economic recovery that began in the middle of 2009 appears to have strengthened in the past few months, although the unemployment rate remains high. The initial phase of the recovery, which occurred in the second half of 2009 and in early 2010, was i
8、n large part attributable to the stabilization of the financial system, the effects of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, and the strong boost to production from businesses rebuilding their depleted inventories. But economic growth slowed significantly last spring and concerns about the dura
9、bility of the recovery intensified as the impetus from inventory building and fiscal stimulus diminished and as Europes fiscal and banking problems roiled global financial markets. More recently, however, we have seen increased evidence that a self-sustaining recovery in consumer and business spendi
10、ng may be taking hold. Notably, real consumer spending rose at an annual rate of more than 4 percent in the fourth quarter. Although strong sales of motor vehicles accounted for a significant portion of this pickup, the recent gains in consumer spending appear reasonably broad based. Business invest
11、ment in new equipment and software increased robustly throughout much of last year, as firms replaced aging equipment and as the demand for their products and services expanded. Construction remains weak, though, reflecting an overhang of vacant and foreclosed homes and continued poor fundamentals f
12、or most types of commercial real 4estate. Overall, improving household and business confidence, accommodative monetary policy, and more-supportive financial conditions, including an apparently increasing willingness of banks to lend, seem likely to result in a more rapid pace of economic recovery in
13、 2011 than we saw last year. While indicators of spending and production have been encouraging on balance, the job market has improved only slowly. Following the loss of about 8-3/4 million jobs from 2008 through 2009, private-sector employment expanded by a little more than 1 million in 2010. Howev
14、er, this gain was barely sufficient to accommodate the inflow of recent graduates and other new entrants to the labor force and, therefore, not enough to significantly erode the wide margin of slack that remains in our labor market. Notable declines in the unemployment rate in December and January,
15、together with improvement in indicators of job openings and firms hiring plans, do provide some grounds for optimism on the employment front. Even so, with output growth likely to be moderate for a while and with employers reportedly still reluctant to add to their payrolls, it will be several years
16、 before the unemployment rate has returned to a more normal level. Until we see a sustained period of stronger job creation, we cannot consider the recovery to be truly established. On the inflation front, we have recently seen increases in some highly visible prices, notably for gasoline. Indeed, prices of many industrial and agricultural commodities have risen lately, largely as a result of the very strong demand from fast-growing emerging market economies, coupled, in some cases, with c
