《美国兰德公司__Domestic_Trends_in_the_United_States,_China,_and_Iran》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《美国兰德公司__Domestic_Trends_in_the_United_States,_China,_and_Iran（234页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RA
2、ND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions.Limited Electronic Distribution RightsVisit RAND at ww
3、w.rand.org Explore the RAND National DefenseResearch InstituteView document detailsFor More InformationThis PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND Corporation.6Jump down to documentTHE ARTSCHILD POLICYCIVIL JUSTICEEDUCATIONENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTHEALTH AND H
4、EALTH CAREINTERNATIONAL AFFAIRSNATIONAL SECURITYPOPULATION AND AGINGPUBLIC SAFETYSCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGYSUBSTANCE ABUSETERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITYTRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTUREWORKFORCE AND WORKPLACEThe RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effe
5、ctive solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world.Purchase this documentBrowse Books distribution unlimitedNATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTEJohn Gordon IV, Robert W. Button, Karla J. Cunningham, Toy I. Reid, Irv Blickstein, Peter A. Wilson, Andreas
6、GoldthauImplications for U.S. Navy Strategic PlanningDomestic Trends in the United States, China, and IranThe RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world.
7、 RANDs publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R is a registered trademark. Copyright 2008 RAND CorporationAll rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recordi
8、ng, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND.Published 2008 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: ht
9、tp:/www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: orderrand.orgLibrary of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication DataHow domestic trends in the U.S., China, and Iran could influence U.S. Nav
10、y strategic planning / John Gordon IV . et al.p. cm.Includes bibliographical references.ISBN 978-0-8330-4562-1 (pbk. : alk. paper)1. United States. NavyPlanning. 2. Strategic planningUnited States. 3. Social predictionUnited States. 4. Economic forecastingUnited States. 5. Social predictionChina. 6.
11、 Economic forecastingChina. 7. Social predictionIran. 8. Economic forecastingIran. I. Gordon, John, 1956VA58.4.H69 2008359.030973dc22 2008044846Cover Photo Credits: AP Images/Greg Baker; AP/Vahid Salemi Cover Design by Carol EarnestThe research described in this report was prepared for the U.S. Navy
12、s Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, Assessment Division (N81). The research was conducted in the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, t
13、he Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002.iiiPrefaceThis book examines the future of the United States, the Peoples Repub-lic of China, and Iran. Specifically, it reviews how important domes- tic trendssu
14、ch as changes in the economy, demographics, and the environmentmay influence the priorities of these three nations in the future. This research is the second in a series of strategic studies the RAND Corporation conducted for the U.S. Navys Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, Assessment Divisio
15、n (N81). The initial research was conducted in the summer and fall of 2006. Entitled “Evolving Strategic Trends, Implications for the U.S. Navy,” that first study was intended for a select Navy audience. It identified likely major global strategic trends in the next decade and how they might influen
16、ce Navy planning. Although the present book focuses primarily on domes- tic trends, it also explores how events in the so-called near abroad of each nation may influence how the three principal nations view their strategic situation. Based on the insights gained during their research, the authors provide conclusions and recommendations that will be of interest not only to the studys sponsor, the U.S. Navy, but also to a w
