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1、Flash Economics 23 January 2018 - 92 Patrick Artus Tel. (33 1) 58 55 15 00 PatrickArtus “In the long run we are all dead” Over the past 10 years, governments and central banks in OECD countries appear to have been guided by this famous quote from John Maynard Keynes: The considerable increase in pu
2、blic debt ratios will force OECD countries to continuously conduct restrictive fiscal policies in the future or will force central banks to continuously ensure fiscal solvency (to yield to fiscal dominance). Governments seem to be oblivious to these long-term costs;The considerable expansion in the
3、quantity of money implemented by central banks, given that it is unlikely to be significantly corrected, leads to a permanent risk of financial instability: asset- price bubbles, high variability in asset prices and exchange rates, abnormal squeezing of risk premia. The risk of financial instability
4、 in the long term does not seem to have been taken into consideration by central banks;The fact that central banks have kept interest rates abnormally low for a long period of time reduces yields on savings and the income from financial assets accumulated by households, which will reduce the incomes
5、 of future pensioners for a long time. This cost of low-interest-rate policies is seldom discussed.The long-term consequences of the unconventional fiscal and monetary policies conducted over the past 10 years do not seem to be seriously taken into consideration. It is as if the long run did not exi
6、st. Distribution of this report in the United States. See important disclosures at the end of this report. Flash Economics 2 Has the long run been forgotten? According to Keynes famous quote (“In the long run we are all dead”), policymakers should not refrain from stabilising the economy in the shor
7、t term because of the long-term effects of the policies employed to this end. But should the long-term consequences of countercyclical economic policies be completely ignored? We think that governments and central banks over the past 10 years seem to have adhered excessively to Keynes view and have
8、turned a blind eye to the long run. The long-term effects of very high public debt ratios Over the past 10 years, governments in OECD countries (to simplify, we define the OECD as United States + United Kingdom + euro zone + Japan) have increased their public debt ratios considerably (Chart 1). 6070
9、8090100110120607080901001101209800020406081012141618Chart 1 OECD*: Public debt (as % of nominal GDP)Sources: Datastream, Natixis forecasts(*) United States + United Kingdom + euro zone + JapanWhat are the long-term effects of very high public debt ratios? - Either governments in OECD countries will
10、have to forever keep fiscal policy restrictive. It is well known that: Under normalised monetary policies, the long-term interest rate is usually higher than the growth rate (which is not at all the case at present, Chart 2), and a higher public debt ratio requires a larger primary fiscal surplus; P
11、rimary fiscal surplus that ensures fiscal solvency=Public debt ratioXLong-term interest rate-Growth rateFlash Economics 3 -6-4-202468-6-4-2024689800020406081012141618Chart 2 OECD*: Nominal GDP, central bank key interest rate and interest rate on 10-year government bondsNominal GDP (Y/Y as %)Central
12、bank key interest rate10-year govt. interest rate (as %)Sources: Datastream, central banks, Natixis(*) United States + United Kingdom + euro zone + Japan- Or, to circumvent restrictive fiscal policies, central banks are forced to forever keep monetary policy highly expansionary, resulting in abnorma
13、lly low long-term interest rates relative to the growth rate (resulting in “fiscal dominance”). The long-term effects of the considerable expansion in the quantity of money The central bank money supply (the monetary base) has increased considerably over the past 10 years in OECD countries (Chart 3)
14、. In contemporary economies, this very rapid growth in the money supply no longer has any effect on inflation - even, it seems, in the long term (Chart 4). 510152025303551015202530359800020406081012141618Chart 3 OECD*: Monetary base (as % of nominal GDP)Sources: Datastream, central banks, Natixis(*)
15、 United States + United Kingdom + euro zone + Japan01002003004005006007008009001,00001002003004005006007008009001,0009800020406081012141618Chart 4 OECD*: Monetary base and inflation (1998:1 = 100)Monetary baseCPISources: Datastream, BLS, ONS, Eurostat, MIAC, National banks, Natixis(*) United States
16、+ United Kingdom + euro zone + JapanBut the considerable quantity of available central bank money is giving rise to financial imbalances: - Asset-price bubbles (Charts 5A and B); - Due to liquiditys ability to move from one asset class to another and from one currency to another, high variability in asset prices (Chart 5A) and exchange rates (Charts 6A and B); - Due to the resulting low level of risk-free in
