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1、Flash Economics 24 January 2018 - 96 Patrick Artus Tel. (33 1) 58 55 15 00 PatrickArtus The “Germans laziness“ It is surprising to see that despite companies significant modernisation of their capital, labour productivity has stagnated in Germany since 2007, economy-wide and in manufacturing indust
2、ry. Also, it has been announced that IG Metall (the metal industry union) is demanding major wage increases and a transition to a 28-hour work week. Is this not a sign of the “Germans laziness“, a decline in German employees taste for work and in their work effort given the sense of prosperity, whic
3、h therefore makes it pointless to go the extra mile? The weak productivity gains - and even the decline in per capita productivity if the working time was reduced - negatively affects Germanys cost competitiveness and its potential growth in a situation of full employment and political pressure to r
4、educe immigration. Distribution of this report in the United States. See important disclosures at the end of this report. Flash Economics 2 Weak productivity gains in Germany The modernisation of capital is significant in Germany (Table 1), yet productivity gains have been weak, economy-wide and in
5、industry since 2007 (Charts 1A and B and 2A and B). Table 1: Stock of industrial robots (per 100 jobs in the manufacturing sector) Year United States United Kingdom Germany France Spain Italy Japan Sweden 1998 0.40 0.26 0.94 0.46 0.32 0.68 2.92 0.72 1999 0.46 0.29 1.05 0.52 0.37 0.76 2.96 0.76 2000
6、0.52 0.32 1.16 0.59 0.46 0.86 2.95 0.85 2001 0.61 0.37 1.26 0.65 0.57 0.96 2.78 0.89 2002 0.69 0.40 1.37 0.70 0.64 1.02 2.77 0.94 2003 0.78 0.43 1.50 0.77 0.70 1.08 2.90 0.98 2004 0.86 0.45 1.64 0.86 0.76 1.16 3.03 1.08 2005 0.98 0.50 1.74 0.94 0.84 1.24 3.25 1.19 2006 1.07 0.52 1.85 1.02 0.92 1.29
7、3.08 1.24 2007 1.16 0.54 1.93 1.07 0.99 1.34 3.06 1.29 2008 1.29 0.55 1.94 1.12 1.04 1.39 3.04 1.38 2009 1.43 0.54 1.98 1.16 1.20 1.44 2.89 1.52 2010 1.50 0.54 2.08 1.23 1.25 1.50 2.84 1.55 2011 1.54 0.55 2.16 1.24 1.35 1.51 2.90 1.59 2012 1.59 0.61 2.18 1.24 1.40 1.50 2.96 1.63 2013 1.69 0.63 2.25
8、1.20 1.43 1.50 2.94 1.72 2014 1.80 0.68 2.35 1.20 1.43 1.55 2.84 1.84 2015 1.90 0.70 2.43 1.21 1.49 1.60 2.75 2.12 2016 2.03 0.74 2.51 1.27 1.51 1.61 2.76 2.29 2017* - - 2.66 1.26 1.56 1.67 - - (*) Estimate Sources: IFR International Federation of Robotics, Natixis -10-505101590951001051101159800020
9、406081012141618Chart 1A Germany: Per capita productivity1998:1 = 100 (LHS)Y/Y as % (RHS)Sources: Datastream, Destatis, Natixis -6-4-2024670809010011012013098000204060810121416Chart 1B Germany: Hourly productivity1998:1 = 100 (LHS)Y/Y as % (RHS)Sources: Datastream, Eurostat, NatixisFlash Economics 3
10、-20-10010203060801001201401609800020406081012141618Chart 2A Germany: Per capita productivity in the manufacturing sector1998:1 = 100 (LHS)Y/Y as % (RHS)Sources: Eurostat, Natixis-20-10010203050751001251501759800020406081012141618Chart 2B Germany: Hourly productivity in the manufacturing sector1998:1
11、 = 100 (LHS)Y/Y as % (RHS)Sources: Datastream, Eurostat, NatixisThe theory of the “Germans laziness“ Labour productivity therefore has stagnated in Germany since 2007 despite the modernisation of capital. Moreover, it has been announced that the IG Metall union is demanding major wage increases in i
12、ndustry (Chart 3) and a transition to a 28-hour work week (Chart 4). -4-20246-4-202469800020406081012141618Chart 3 Germany: Nominal per capita wage (Y/Y as %)Economy as a wholeManufacturing industrySources: Eurostat, Natixis3435363738393435363738399800020406081012141618Chart 4 Germany: Number of hou
13、rs worked per weekEconomy as a wholeManufacturing industrySources: Eurostat, NatixisIt is easy to think that the incentives for work effort are disappearing in Germany, which we call the “Germans laziness“. This development is probably linked to: - The sense of prosperity (full employment, quite str
14、ong growth, Chart 5A; external surplus, Chart 5B); Flash Economics 4 -8-6-4-2024681012-8-6-4-2024681012989900010203040506070809101112131415161718Chart 5A Germany: Real GDP growth and unemployment rateReal GDP (Y/Y as %)Unemployment rate (national sources, as %)Sources: Datastream, Destatis, Natixis-
15、4-20246810-4-202468109800020406081012141618Chart 5B Germany: Current-account balance (as % of nominal GDP)Sources: Datastream, Natixis- The idea that German companies have benefited greatly from the labour market deregulation that was undertaken after the turn of the century (Charts 6A and B). 92961
16、0010410811211692961001041081121169800020406081012141618Chart 6A Germany: Per capita real wage and productivity (1998:1 = 100)(1) Real per capita wage (deflated by GDP deflator)(2) Per capita productivity(3) Ratio (1) / (2)Sources: Datastream, Destatis, Natixis78910111213147891011121314989900010203040506070809101112131415161718Chart 6B Germany: Profits after tax, interest and dividends (as
