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1、15 January 2018PlatinumSA PlatinumPlatinumRecommendation ChangeSub-Saharan Africa South AfricaIndustrySA PlatinumDate 15 January 2018Deutsche BankMarkets Research1Q18 SA Platinum: looking for platinum demand to stabilise in 2018Stronger Rand forecasts increase our USD-price forecasts, Rand-basket un
2、changed Our Rand/USD forecasts, based on the forward curve, are for a stronger-than- previously-forecast Rand by 10%/9%,8%/6% for 2018/2019/2020/2021 and by 4% stronger thereafter. We are now using a Rand of R12.75/USD for 2018E. We set our Rand-basket price at the marginal cost of production in a w
3、ell-balanced market (which we forecast persisting for the medium term) and thus the stronger- rand forecasts have led to an upgrade to our USD-metal price forecasts. We increase our forecast palladium price by 14% and platinum by 6% owing tostronger fundamentals (a deficit market) for palladium but
4、leave our Rand-basket price unchanged. As a result, we have made only minor changes to valuations and our recommendations, except for Lonmin, which we upgrade to a Hold recommendation and set our price target at 0.967x Sibanye-Stillwaters 12m forward price target less a 3% discount (market discount
5、since deal announced).Given the Sibanye-Stillwater offer in December 2017, we believe Lonmin will trade as a proxy for its value in Sibanye-Stillwater shares assuming completion of the acquisition. We are neutral overall on the sector as under DB forecast prices(which ramp-up in 2020/2021 on higher
6、deficits), the sector looks relatively fairly valued at 0.7-1x P:NPV. Amplats (Buy, R410ps) is best suited to cope in a marginal costing environment. It features favourably on the lower end of the cost curve and 50% of its business is earning a processing margin on purchased concentrate.Platinum dem
7、and to stabilise in 2018E after 2 years of declines We forecast Platinum demand to stabilise in 2018E after two years of c.3% declines in both 2016 and 2017, as diesel vehicles have continued to lose marketshare. We forecast these losses to be offset by gains in other components of demand. This leav
8、es the platinum market largely balanced for the medium-term,in our view. Palladium remains in a significant, albeit declining deficit, as gasoline vehicles gain market share from diesel. We believe 2018 could mark the peak palladium price in the short-term, after a strong run in 2017, as the palladi
9、umdeficits begin to moderate. Rhodium demand growth remains strong owing to heightened focus on NOx emissions control; however the market remains well- supplied.DCF-based valuations, 1x NPV, Sector risks include commodity, FX forecasts Changes to price targets, forecasts and recommendations are summ
10、arised inFigure 3. Company-specific risks and detailed changes to estimates are available per company within the report.Patrick Mann, CFAResearch Analyst+27-11-775-7282Key Changes CompanyTarget PriceRatingLONJ.J4.90 to 14.60Sell to HoldAMSJ.J420.00 to 410.00-LMI.L27.00 to 85.00Sell to HoldNHMJ.J56.0
11、0 to 58.00-RBPJ.J36.00 to 35.00-Source: Deutsche BankTop picksAmplats (AMSJ.J),ZAR376.01BuySource: Deutsche BankCompanies featuredLonmin Plc (LONJ.J),ZAR15.01HoldAmplats (AMSJ.J),ZAR376.01BuyImpala Platinum (IMPJ.J),ZAR33.50HoldLonmin Plc (LMI.L),GBP87.85HoldNortham (NHMJ.J),ZAR55.26HoldRBPlat (RBPJ
12、.J),ZAR30.00HoldSource: Deutsche BankDeutsche Securities (Pty) LtdDeutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should beaware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors shoul
13、d consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017.Distributed on: 15/01/2018 04:48:09 GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa15 January 2018PlatinumSA PlatinumChanges to estimatesCommodity, currency a
14、nd summary company changesWe have left our Rand-basket price forecasts essentially unchanged over ourforecast period. We set our Rand-PGM prices based offthe cost of production and thus mechanically our USD-price forecasts have increased in response to our stronger forecast Rand (leaving the Rand-ba
15、sket unchanged).We have increased our platinum price forecasts by between 5.7% and 7.6% over the period 2018E-2020E but by a greater amount in Palladium and Rhodium, where the demand fundamentals remain more favourable.For Palladium, we have increased our forecasts by 13.5%,11,7% and 7.4% in 2018E,
16、2019E and 2020E respectively.For Rhodium, we have increased our forecasts by 29%,22% and 13% in 2018E, 2019E and 2020E respectively.Figure 1: Summary changes to Rand and PGM forecasts, 2018E-2026EDeutsche Bank PGM and ZAR/USD price forecasts2016A2017Spot1Q18e2Q18e3Q18e4Q18e2018e2019e2020e2021e2022e2023e2024e2025e2026e Rand basket price (4E)*ZAR/oz12,536 12,583 13,539 13,448 14,415 15,273 16,168 14,815 15,530 17,085 18,209 19,687 21,190
