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1、Please refer to page 14 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website INDIA Key data releases (Dec-17 vs Nov-17) Source: CEIC, GoI, Macquarie Research, January 2018 *IP current month is Nov-17 and previous is Oct-17 Rabi sowing current is for week of Jan 12th, previous is w
2、eek of Jan 5th #CAD current is for QE Sep-17, previous is QE Jun-17 Analyst(s) Upasana Chachra +91 22 6720 4355 18 January 2018 Macquarie Capital Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. India Economics Macro data round-up Growth recovery gathering pace In this monthly publication we endeavour to provide a one-
3、stop shop for all key macro data releases in the month, along with a chart pack of key macro indicators to track. Growth indicators: Cyclical recovery in domestic demand Domestic demand indicators: High frequency domestic demand indicators have shown a sustained improvement in Nov / Dec suggesting t
4、hat growth recovery is gaining momentum post the GST related disruption. IP growth for Nov came in at a two-year high, led by a pickup in manufacturing. PMI (manufacturing) for Dec rose to a 5-year high Auto sales remained robust - two wheelers rose to the highest since Oct- 2010, MHCV sales rose to
5、 the highest since Jun-2010 Cement production rose to the highest since Nov-2010. External demand remains healthy: Export growth normalised to 12.4%YoY in Dec from 30.5%YoY in Nov. Export growth in the last few months has been bumpy mainly due to the GST-related operational disruptions. On a full-ye
6、ar basis exports grew by 13.5% in 2017 vs. a decline of 1.1% in 2016.Macro stability: Widening at the margin, but in a manageable range CPI: Dec CPI accelerated to a 17-month high of 5.2% in Dec (largely in line with expectations) with both food and core segments increasing.WPI: December WPI inflati
7、on decelerated to 3.6% from 3.9% in November, lower than expectations. The deceleration in inflation was led by lower food inflation, while non-food inflation remained steady.Trade deficit: The trade deficit rose in Dec to US$14.9bn (9% of GDP annualised) compared to US$13.8bn (8.4% of GDP annualise
8、d) in Nov as imports rose faster than exports.Outlook Gradual recovery keeping macro stability in check: We expect the growth recovery to gradually gather pace, and we expect GDP growth at 7.2% in FY19e from 6.7% in FY18e. We expect consumption, public capex and exports to be the main drivers even a
9、s private capex remains in repair mode. Inflation is expected to edge higher until Jun-18 (4.7-5.5%) partly due to a low base. We expect the RBI to take into the account the idiosyncratic factors impacting inflation and a still nascent growth recovery, which should keep the central bank on hold. Wit
10、h incoming inflation data likely to remain above the 4% medium-term target, RBI could incrementally sound more hawkish. Pls see the following pages for a summary of key data releases and charts on growth and macro stability indicators. Macquarie Research India Economics 18 January 2018 2 Growth Indi
11、cators A. Industrial Production Trend in IP (YoY%, YoY% 3MMA) Industrial production rose to a 25-month high: Industrial production for November accelerated to 8.4% YoY in Nov from 2% in Oct. Moreover, the nominal IP growth (adjusted for non- food WPI) rose to a 41-month high. The acceleration was at
12、tributable to a sharp pick-up in manufacturing growth, which rose to the highest since April 2013 the start of the new IP series. Within the details, the trend in capital goods, infra goods, intermediate goods and consumer non-durables is improving. On a 3-month trailing basis, growth accelerated to
13、 4.8% in Nov vs. 3.6% for three months ending Oct. Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, January 2018 B. Export Growth Trend in export growth Export growth normalises in December: Export growth moderated to 12.4% YoY in Dec from 30.5% in Nov. In the last four months growth in exports has been volatile m
14、ainly due to the transitionary disruption caused by implementation of GST. However, on a 3-month average basis, the trend in export growth has clearly improved with export growth improving to 13.9% as of three months ending Dec vs. 4% as of July (the month of GST implementation). Within exports, gro
15、wth of commodity exports has been faring better helped by commodity price reflation, however non- commodity exports have steadily improved in the last four months reflecting better external demand conditions. The key export segments, which have contributed to export growth on a 3-month trailing basi
16、s, are: petroleum products, chemicals, engineering goods, gems Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd; Macquarie Capital Markets Canada Ltd; Macquarie Capital Markets North America Ltd; Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc; Macquarie Capital Limited and Macquarie Capital Limited, Taiwan Securities Branch; Macquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd; Macquarie Sec
