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1、,1,Regulatory Issues andChinas Auto Market政策法规对中国汽车产业的影响Wayne W.J. Xing Ph.DChina Business UpdateChina Automotive Review中国汽车要闻 邢文军,,2,The Auto Market Today中国的汽车市场Future Trend & Drivers未来市场的走向和影响因素Recent Policies & Regulations近期的相关政策和法规,,3,The Auto Market Today中国的汽车市场,,4,The Rise of Per-Capita GDP人均G
2、DP,Large Metropolis and Coastal Areas$3,000-$4,000 直辖市及沿海地区,,5,,6,Growth Rate of Automobile and Car Production 1993-2005汽车及轿车产量增幅(in million units) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Total 1.29 1.35 1.45 1.47 1.58 1.63 1.83 2.07 2.35 3.25 4.46 5.10 5.73% change 22.1 4.3
3、7.3 1.38 7.37 3.16 12.3 13.1 13.6 39.0 37.2 14.3 12.3Cars* 0.23 0.25 0.32 0.39 0.48 0.52 0.57 0.60 0.75 1.17 2.11 2.36 2.93% change 41.1 8.9 30.0 29.4 23.1 8.33 11.5 6.95 23.27 56.0 80.3 11.8 24.2* Includes sub-category cars and MPVs,,7,Adding One Million Units A Year年增百万辆First Million: 1953-1992 -
4、40 yearSecond Million: 1993-2000 - 8 yearsThird Million: 2001-2002- 2 yearsFourth Million: 2003 - 1 yearFifth Million: 2004 1 yearsSixth Million: 2005 over 1 yearSeventh Million: 2006 1 year,,8,GDP and Output Growth Rates GDP和汽车产量增幅,,9,Chinas auto market: myth and reality 中国的汽车市场的真实性,,10,,11,,12,,13
5、,Intensifying Competition 竞争激烈633?,,14,DF-Yueda-Kia,FAW Car,FAW-VW,SGM,SVW,Hainan-Mazda,GEELY,Tianjin-FAW-XialiTianjin- FAW- Toyota,Changan-Suzuki,Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citron,Chery,Guangzhou-Honda,D-Nissan,Brilliance-Jinbei,BJ-Hyundai,Changan-Ford,NJ-Fiat,Changhe-Suzuki,Hafei Auto,Guizhou-Skylark,Southe
6、ast,S-GM-Wuling,Sichuan-Toyota,3+?,Guangzhou-Toyota,Changan-Ford,D-Nissan,Guangzhou-Hyundai,Great Wall,Jianghuai,6+3,,15,63 Multinationals are all in 跨国公司全部进入Volkswagen: 大众 SAIC and FAW GM: 通用 SAIC-GM, Wuling, Dongyue, Jinbei Ford: 福特 Changan, Nanjing, JianglingDaimlerChrysler: 戴克 BAIC, Southeast To
7、yota: 丰田 FAW, GAICHonda: 本田 GAIC, Dongfeng Renault/Nissan: 雷诺-日产 Dongfeng BMW: 宝马 Brilliance JinbeiPSA: 标致雪铁龙 Dongfeng ; Fiat: 菲亚特 NanjingHyundai-Kia: 现代-起亚 BAIC, Dongfeng, GAIC Suzuki: 铃木 Changan, Changhe; Mitsubishi: 三菱 Southeast Isuzu: 五十铃 Qingling;,,16,3？: FAW, Dongfeng, SAIC “三大？”BAIC: 北汽 Daiml
8、erChrysler, Hyundai, MitsubishiGAIC: 广汽 Honda, Toyota, Dongfeng-Nissan PassengerChangan Group: 长安 Ford, SuzukiHafei/Changhe: 哈飞/昌河 Aviation Industry GroupJianghuai Auto Group 江淮Nanjing: 南汽 Fiat, MG RoverSoutheast (Fujian)：东南 Mitsubishi, China MotorsBrilliance: 华晨 BMW Qingling Motor Group：庆铃 Isuzu,,1
9、7,3？Domestic Investment 国内投资Chery: 奇瑞 R&D Center, Engine Plant, Export/JV Geely: 吉利 R&D Center, Engine plant, Export/JV BYD (Qinchuan): 比亚迪 HK$254 million/74% shares Great Wall: 长城 100,000 units car assembly plant Jianghuai: 江淮 light commercial, MPV, car Lifan: 力帆 1.6L car Zhongxing: 中兴 SUVs and pic
10、kups Gonow Auto: 吉奥 SUVs and pickups Loncin: 隆鑫 300 million, bus/suv,,18,Reality and Definition 如何定义Sedan 轿车Automobile 汽车Motor vehicle 机动车Consumers 消费者Family car 家庭轿车Price: 价格 100,000, 80,000, 40,000, 30,000Sedan vs hatchback 三箱, 两箱 (Citron ZX, Xiali),,19,Summary 结论: Eexisting and potential large ma
11、rket 现实和潜在大市场 Institutional and commercial 公、商务车市场 Consumer market: 消费者市场：摩托车、农用车、微车 Motorcycles, farm vehicles, mini-vehicles (not 100%) Sedans 轿车 Transition from a centralized to a market system计划经济向市场经济过渡,,20,Future Trend and Drivers未来市场的走向和影响因素,,21,Interaction of Three Forces 三股力量的博弈Government,
12、World Market, Domestic Market 政府、国际和国内市场 Streamlining of Central Bureaucracies精简政府机构 Protection of Private Property 公有制和私有制 WTO Impact 世贸组织 The Rise of a Consumer Market 消费者市场的兴起,,22,Declining Administrative Control行政干预逐渐弱化 Ministry of Machinery Industry 机械部 State Administration of Machinery Industry 机械局 China National Automotive Industry Corp. 中汽总 State Economic and Trade Commission 经贸委Federation of Machinery Industry 机械工业联合会CAAM/SAE 中国汽车工业协会/中国汽车工程学会,
