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1、毕 业 设 计（论 文）外 文 参 考 资 料 及 译 文译文题目：汇率和东亚贸易平衡：存在 J曲线效应吗？Exchange rate and trade balance in east Asia: is there a Jcurve? 学生姓名： 张秋晨 学 号： 0721110415 专业： 金融学 所在学院： 龙蟠学院 指导教师： 吴敏 职称： 讲师 年 月 日说明：要求学生结合毕业设计（论文）课题参阅一篇以上的外文资料，并翻译至少一万印刷符（或译出 3千汉字）以上的译文。译文原则上要求打印（如手写，一律用 400字方格稿纸书写） ，连同学校提供的统一封面及英文原文装订，于毕业设计（论文
2、）工作开始后 2周内完成，作为成绩考核的一部分。Exchange rate and trade balance in east asia: is there a Jcurve?OLUGBENGA ONAFOWORASUSQUEHANNA UNIVERSITYAbstractThis paper examines the short run and long run effects of real exchange rate changes on the real trade balance of three ASEAN countries in their bilateral trade to
3、 the US and Japan within a cointegrating vector error correction model (VECM). Generalized impulse response funtions are estimated to investigate the response to shocks. VECM estimates suggest one longrun steadystate cointegrating relationship among real trade balance, real exchange rate, real domes
4、tic and foreign income in each country. Although considerable variations exist in the results, overall the generalized impulse response functions suggest that the MarshallLerner condition holds in the longrun with varying degree of Jcurve effects in the shortrun.1. IntroductionMany empirical analyse
5、s, both multi-country panel regressions and econometric models applied to individual countries, have been conducted into how exchange rate changes affect the trade balance of developing and developed countries1. Despite the plethora of theoretical and empirical research into how exchange rate change
6、s affect trade balance, there is still considerable disagreement concerning the relationships between these economic variables and the effectiveness of currency devaluation as a tool for increasing a countrys balance of trade. Consequently, the effect of exchange rate changes on trade balance must b
7、e considered an open question from both analytical and empirical perspectives. The premise that there is no clear resolution - neither analytical nor empirical- regarding the effectiveness of currency devaluationas a tool for increasing a countrys trade balance calls for a fresh look at the issue us
8、ing recent advancements in the field of time series econometrics.The large exchange rate depreciations registered in a number of East Asian countries since mid-1990s offers an excellent opportunity for the question whether devaluations in by themselves have a significant impact on trade flows, and w
9、hether the Marshall-Lerner (ML) conditions hold. The aim of this paper is to examine the relationships between the real trade balance and real exchange rate for three ASEAN countries - Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesiain their bilateral trade to the US and Japan over the quarterly period 1980:1 to 2
10、001:4 using cointegration analysis and a vector error correction model (VECM) framework which treats all variables in the model as potentially endogenous. We further investigate the dynamics of the trade balance by estimating generalized impulse response functions as introduced by Pesaran and Shin (
11、1998) to investigate the effects of shocks and trace out potential J-1 See for example, Wilson, 2001, on Malaysia, Korea and Singapore; Akbostanci, 2002, for Turkey; Hsing and Savvides, 1996, on Korea and Taiwan; Bahmani-Oskooee, 1996, for Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Greece and S. Afric
12、a; Bahmani-Oskooee, 1985, for India, Korea, Thailand and Greece; Himarios, 1989, for 15 LDCs; Edwards, 1986, for 12 LDCs, and Miles, 1979, for 14 LDCs including the Philippines and Sri Lanka;Leonard and Stockman, 2001, Bahmani-Oskooee and Brooks, 1999, Rose, 1990 and 1991, Krugman and Baldwin,1987,
13、and Rose and Yellen, 1989, for the US; Marwah and Klein, 1996, for the US and Canada; Lal and Lowinger,2001, Guptar-Kapoor and Ramakrishnan, 1999, and Noland, 1989, for Japan; Boyd, Caporale, and Smith, 2001, and Bayoumi, 1999 for various industrial countries.curve effects in the data.Evidence from
14、the Johansen (1988) maximum likelihood tests for cointegration among bilateral real trade balance, bilateral real exchange rate, and real domestic and real foreign income in the sampled countries suggest that the variables are causally related in the long run with one cointegrating vector in the mod
15、el for each country. Parameter stability tests based on the CUSUM of squares test developed by Brown, Durbin and Evans (1975) confirm that the long-run coefficients of the real trade balance equations are fairly stable, suggesting that the models can be used for policy simulation. Although considera
16、ble variations exist in the results, overall generalized impulse response analysis suggest that the ML condition holds in the long run with some degree of J-curve effects in the short run.The rest of the paper is organized as follows. In Section 2 we present the basic model, explain the estimation technique
