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1、2018 Hong Kong Banking O McSheaffreyPartner, Head of Banking & Capital Markets, Hong KongKPMG ChinaOverviewWelcome to our outlook for 2018, where our Banking team forecasts the key developments and trends in Hong Kong for the next year.With the market environment starting to stabilise in 2017, there
2、 are a number of positive developments and opportunities in the year ahead for banks in Hong Kong to increase their profitability. We are seeing increasing signs that US interest rates will continue to rise, which is likely to benefit Hong Kong as liquidity in the citys system is pulled out to inves
3、t elsewhere. This may lead to better yields and increases in revenue for Hong Kong banks in 2018.We also expect to see credit losses remain within their existing levels, with Chinas financial deleveraging proceeding at its current controlled pace without any large shocks that could cause potential l
4、osses for banks in Hong Kong. Furthermore, we believe that 2018 will be the year where fintech goes mainstream in Hong Kong. We appear to have reached a tipping point where the adoption of fintech and other technologies across all aspects of banking has become a priority issue on the boardroom and e
5、xecutive committee agenda. This trend is likely to drive the industry towards making a step change in the adoption of fintech in the next 12 months. However, it is important that banks bear in mind that technology changes are always more successful when they are business-led, rather than technology-
6、led. Encouragingly, we are seeing that the industry is now recognising this, with banks increasingly ensuring that they first identify the problems they are facing before seeking out the best available technology to effectively solve the issues.Certainly, for banks in Hong Kong, there is no shortage
7、 of problems regulatory and compliance costs, conduct and culture risk, anti-money laundering issues and banks will increasingly apply technology to tackle these issues, manage costs more effectively and maximise revenue generating opportunities. Hong Kongs position as a key international financial
8、centre cannot be ignored, and the city will continue to play a pivotal role in propelling Chinas growing influence and power on the world stage. In 2018, we expect mainland China to continue to use external investment as a soft power vehicle, as well as look to build new trading blocs and forge new
9、alliances. One significant way to facilitate this is through the Belt and Road initiative. We therefore expect to see a major step change in Belt and Road financing that is arranged or facilitated through Hong Kong in the year ahead.We believe that with these positive developments, Hong Kongs role o
10、f bringing together investors and investees, and facilitating inbound and outbound investment will be stronger than ever in the short-term. Exciting possibilities ahead as fintech goes mainstream 2017 KPMG, a Hong Kong partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms aff
11、iliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.32018 Hong Kong Banking OutlookJohn ShelleySenior AdvisorKPMG ChinaMacro trends affecting bankingA decade after the global financial crisis (GFC), the financial services industry worldwide is now
12、nearing the end of the cycle of regulators and governments recouping money from banks through fines and other forms of redress. In the US alone, banks have paid USD 150 billion in fines since the GFC. The associated investigations and remediation activities have held back the level of investment and
13、 management time that could have been spent on innovation. Going into 2018, there are a number of significant external factors that banks need to monitor and prepare for. Banks cannot ignore the geopolitical tensions and the more nationalistic and protectionist tone being taken by some leaders. Ongo
14、ing developments around Brexit continue to impact many international financial institutions, with several banks considering moving key business and staff out of the UK due to a lack of clarity over the path Brexit will take. We are also seeing similar reported issues around Catalonias possible seces
15、sion from Spain. Banks will also continue to closely monitor the actions of the US in respect of regulation. While there is continued discussion about rolling back aspects of US regulation, the less reported area of concern is that the US appears to be stepping back from implementing Basel 3, which
16、has been hammered out between the leading economic powers. As a result, some leading European nations have said that they will also not implement aspects of the regulation, as they only agreed to do so on the basis that the US would as well. The Basel framework has been an important mechanism for international cooperation in the post-GFC world, and its demise would leave a worrying vacuum.One consequence of the increased capital requirements for banks h
