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1、Classified Index: CODE: 10075 U.D.C: NO: 20101440 A Dissertation for the Degree of Economic Research on Chinese Government Debt Risk and Managerial Countermeasures Candidate： Zhao Rui Supervisor： Prof. Wang Yanjie Academic Degree Applied for： Master of Economics Specialty： Public Finance University：
2、 Hebei University Date of Oral Examination： May， 2013 摘 要 I摘 要 公债作为政府筹资的手段之一，在财政系统中有着举足轻重的地位。在中国改革开放以来，政府债务为经济发展提供了必要的资金，发挥了重要的作用。但是随着政府债务的累积，政府债务违约的可能性与日俱增。特别是1998年东南亚金融危机和2008年美国金融危机爆发以后，我国政府债务规模增长迅速。加之我国政府债务本身所具有的信息不透明，操作不规范等缺陷，我国政府债务问题不容忽视。合理评估我国政府债务规模，并对其形成原因进行分析，将有助于控制我国政府债务规模，化解我国政府债务风险。 本文分析
3、研究的重点是我国政府债务的现状、成因和今后的防范措施。在借鉴国内对我国政府债务研究成果的基础上，本文从我国政府债务范围界定上入手，较为全面地考察了我国政府债务规模，得出结论：我国政府债务规模总体可控。接着结合我国政府债务现状，认为我国的分税制不彻底、我国现行的政治激励机制不健全、政府职能转换不到位、政府财务信息披露机制不完善、预算制度不健全以及经济政策是导致我国政府债务规模不断扩大的原因。在对比国际上其他国家控制政府债务的经验以及政府债务失控的教训的基础上，最后分别从健全分税制、加快政府职能转变、改善政府预算管理、完善监管框架、加强预算立法、建立债务风险预警机制和强化政府债务管理等方面提出了防
4、范和化解我国政府债务风险的措施。 关键词 政府债务 预警机制 财政体制 经济政策 Abstract IIAbstract As a means of financing by the government, debt has a pivotal position in the financial system. Government debt plays an important role in China since the reform and opening up, who provides necessary funds for economic development. Howeve
5、r, with the accumulation of government debt, the default risk is increasing. Especially after the outbreak of Southeast Asian financial crisis in 1998 and the American financial crisis in 2008, the government debt scale of China has a rapid growth. Coupled with the Information of Chinese t debt is n
6、ot open and the operation is not standardized defects, the debt problems cannot be ignored. Reasonable assessment of the scale of the government debt and analysis its causes will contribute to control the scale of the government debt and defuse government debt risk. The target that this article stud
7、ies on is the debt risk of our country at present，the cause of the debt risk and the guarding measures. On the basis of the domestic research about our government debt, the author defines the scope of our government debt first, then analyzes the scale of the government debt and draw a conclusion tha
8、t Chinese debt is within the security boundary. Then analyses the status of our government debt and think that those are the reasons of our government debt expansion that the system of tax distribution is not complete, political incentive mechanism not perfect, the transformation of government funct
9、ions not in place, the mechanism of financial information not open, the budget system not perfect, and the economic policy used too much. On the basis of contrasting the experiences and lesions of other countries controlling the government debt, author thinks that the government should establish the
10、 sound tax distribution fiscal system, speed up the change of government function, improve the government budget management and regulatory framework, strengthen the budget legislation, establish debt risk early warning mechanism, strengthen the management of government debt. Keywords Government Debt
11、 Warning Mechanism for Government Debt the System of Financial Economic Policy目 录 III目 录 第 1 章 导 论 . 11.1 研究背景和意义 . 11.1.1 研究背景 . 11.1.2 研究意义 . 11.2 国内外研究现状 . 21.2.1 国外研究现状 . 21.2.2 国内研究现状 . 41.3 研究内容、研究方法和创新点 . 51.3.1 主要研究内容 . 51.3.2 研究方法 . 61.3.3 创新点 . 7第 2 章 我国政府债务风险的主要表现 . 82.1 我国政府债务范围的界定 . 82.2 我国政府债务的规模分析 . 102.3 我国政府债务风险分析 . 12第 3 章 我国政府债务风险形成原因分析 .
