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1、房利美将上交 594亿美元股息Fannie Mae dividend payment of $59bn lifts hopes of taxpayer profit 英国金融时报 史蒂芬福利 纽约报道Fannie Mae, the US mortgage behemoth rescued during the 2008 financial crisis, will pay a $59.4bn dividend to the US Treasury, raising the prospect that taxpayers will soon receive a profit from the b
2、ailout.The company took $116.1bn in public funds to cover losses on trillions of dollars of mortgages it had purchased or guaranteed. The latest payout will take the total dividends it has paid to the Treasury to $95bn.Fannie Mae and rival Freddie Mac remain under government conservatorship as they
3、await political direction on how they should be wound down .Its results came a day after Freddie Mac posted the second-best quarterly profit in its history and said total dividends to the Treasury would reach $36.6bn by June, compared with its bailout of $71.3bn.The payouts could recast the politica
4、l calculus over Fannie and Freddies future as the Obama administration tries to install a new head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates the two groups. Mel Watt, who has long argued for government support for affordable housing, was nominated last week but is opposed by some Republ
5、ican lawmakers.Fannie Maes latest dividend payment resulted from changes to the accounting treatment of deferred taxes totalling $50.6bn.After recognising the tax benefit in its latest quarterly results, published yesterday, the companys net worth swelled to $62.4bn. Under revised bailout terms impo
6、sed last year, all but $3bn of Fannie and Freddies net worth must be handed to the US Treasury in the form of dividends.美国抵押贷款巨擘房利美(Fannie Mae)将向美国财政部支付 594亿美元的股息，这意味着在 2008年金融危机期间接受政府救助的该公司有望不久给纳税人带来利润。该公司当时接受了 1161亿美元的公共资金，以填补其购买或担保的数万亿美元抵押贷款的亏损。此次支付股息将使其已支付给财政部的全部股息达到 950亿美元。房利美和竞争对手房地美(Freddie M
7、ac)仍处于政府监护之下，它们正就如何被清盘等待政治指引。在房利美公布业绩的前一天，房地美公布了史上第二高的季度盈利，并表示到今年 6月其向财政部支付的全部股息将达到 366亿美元，政府提供给该公司的纾困资金为 713亿美元。这些股息可能会改变有关“两房”的政治考量，奥巴马政府正试图任命监管这两家公司的美国联邦住房金融局(Federal Housing Finance Agency)的新负责人。长期主张政府应支持价格适中住房的梅尔瓦特(Mel Watt)上周得到提名，但遭到一些共和党议员的反对。房利美最新股息支付源于对总额 506亿美元递延税收的会计处理的变化。在昨日公布的最新季度业绩中计入税
8、收优惠后，该公司的净值扩大至 624亿美元。根据去年执行的修订后的纾困条款，两房净值中超过 30亿美元的部分必须以股息的形式上交美国财政部。AT HONG KONG airport, a couple hold an animated discussion about whether to buy a $350 polo shirt from Hugo Boss. Their conversation, like many in luxury shops across the city, is in Mandarin, the language of mainland China, and n
9、ot the local variant, Cantonese. The mainland provides a third of the airports visitors and many of its most avid shoppers.香港机场内，一对情侣正叽叽喳喳地讨论着该不该花 350 美元买件雨果博斯（Hugo Boss）的衬衫。和香港大多数奢侈品店里一样，这对顾客说的是大陆人用的普通话，而非当地的方言粤语。在这座机场接待的旅客中，有三分之一是大陆人，而机场内疯狂购物的顾客们，也大多说着普通话。In 2012, according to estimates by Jonatha
10、n Garner and Helen Qiao of Morgan Stanley, a bank, the Chinese spent over 2.3 trillion yuan ($370 billion) on domestic tourism alone. And yet Chinas GDP statistics captured only a tiny part of that spending, they argue, as well as missing spending on financial services, health care and housing. As a
11、 result, official figures show private consumption languishing at around 35% of GDP. Morgan Stanleys “bottom-up” calculations, by contrast, imply that it has grown since 2008 to almost 46% of GDP (see chart). Mr Garner and Ms Qiao draw on company reports and industry studies to fill gaps in the offi
12、cial data, which, they say, undercounted consumption by $1.6 trillion in 2012, more than Australias entire GDP. Their calculations echo earlier studies, which also found that official statistics undercount consumption, albeit by a smaller margin.由投行摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的经济学家乔纳森 戈纳（Jonathan Garner）和乔
13、虹（ Helen Qiao）作出的一项分析称， 2012年，中国人光在国内旅游上就花了 2.3 万亿人民币（约合 3700 亿美元）。他们称，中国官方的 GDP 数据在统计时只计入了旅游支出的一小部分，而且还忽略了在金融服务、医疗服务以及住房方面的支出。这样一来，官方数据中私人消费占总 GDP 的比重便被压缩到了35%。但是，摩根士丹利的“基本面分析”却指出，中国消费占GDP 的比重自 2008 年来持续增长，现在已增至 46%（见上表）。戈纳和乔虹利用公司报表和行业研究报告，填补了官方统计范围的差漏。他们称，官方统计数据将中国 2012 年的消费总量低估了 1.6万亿这可比澳大利亚整整一年的
14、 GDP 还要多。与之对应，早先的研究也曾表明官方统计数据低估了消费总量，尽管其差额要比前者所估计的要小得多。As well as stuff bought offshore, spending online is also undercounted, the two economists argue. On a single weekend in November, Chinese consumers spent more than $3 billion on two websites, Taobao and Tmall (both part of Alibaba, an online gi
15、ant), in celebration of “singles day”, the bachelors equivalent of Valentines day. But official statistics have failed to keep pace with changing consumer habits, Ms Qiao argues, neglecting entire categories of e-spending. Online gaming, for example, is largely missing. Yet it amounted to 53 billion
16、 yuan ($8.5 billion) last year, according to Morgan Stanleys tally of revenues earned by online gaming firms.两人还称，境外消费和网络购物消费额在官方统计数据中 都被大大低估了。去年 11 月，为庆祝光棍们的双十一节，（电商巨头阿里巴巴旗下的）淘宝和天猫两大网站推出了促销活动。在短短一个周末的时间里，中国消费者就在这两个网站上花去了超过 30 亿美元。但官方统计数字却没能跟上消费者的脚步，完全忽略了网络消费的巨额数字，乔虹如是说道。比如，网络游戏消费就往往被忽略，而在对网络游戏商的财务报表进行分析后，摩根士丹利估计，仅去年一年的网游消费总额就达到了 530 亿人民币（约 85 亿美元）。Chinas statistics have long been viewed with scepticism or worse. Some economists worry that the
