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1、气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍 Presentation on Physical Impacts Work,Yinlong XU （许 吟隆） Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) Beijing, China 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所 Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Tel comprehensively analyze the experience of past ada
2、pting to extreme drought and floods 目标3：气候变化对未来水资源的可能影响评估 Objective 3：Assess the potential impact of climate change on future water resources over China 目标4：水利适应气候变化的国家战略和对策 Objective 4: Address national adaptation strategy of water industry to climate change.,地方层面工作计划 Province-level work plan,宁夏 Ni
3、ngxia 农业 Agriculture 水资源 Water Resources 适应技术示范 Adaptation case study 内蒙 Inner Mongolia 草地畜牧业 Grassland-livestock 水资源 Water resources 适应案例研究 Adaptation case study,省份1：内蒙古 Province 1： Inner Mongolia, ：草地畜牧业（内蒙古农业大学） ：Grassland-livestock (IM Agricultural University),目标1：气候变化对内蒙古草地畜牧业的影响评价 Objective 1
4、Climate change impacts risk assessment for whole Inner Mongolia grassland-livestock 目标2：未来气候变化情景下内蒙古草地畜牧业的影响预估 Objective 2 Assess the CC risk impact on grassland-livestock for whole Inner Mongolia grassland under the future climate scenarios, ：水资源（内蒙古水利局） ： Water Resources (Hydrological Bureau of In
5、ner Mongolia),目标1：气候变化对内蒙古水资源的影响评估 Objective 1 Detection of climatic change impacts on Inner Mongolia water resource 目标2：气候变化对未来水资源的可能影响评估 Objective 2 Future risk assessment 目标3：不同草原类型区适应案例研究 Objective 3 Case study of different grassland type region about water resources, ：适应案例研究 ： Typical Case Stud
6、y for Adaptation Recommendations,目标1：典型草原草地畜牧业区锡林浩特 Objective 1 Typical steppe grassland and animal husbandry area Xilinhaote 目标2：浑善达克沙地草地农业区多伦 Objective 2 Sandy grassland agricultural area - Doron 目标3：荒漠草原农牧交错带四子王旗 Objective 3 Ecotone of desert and grassland - Siziwangqi,省份2：宁夏 Province 2： Ningxia,
7、 ：农业（宁夏气象研究所） ： Agriculture (Ningxia Meteorological Research Institute),目标1：历史气候变化对宁夏农业影响的检测 Objective 1 Analyze the impact of present climate change on agriculture in Ningxia 目标2：未来影响的评估。评估未来气候变化条件下对宁夏农业生产的可能影响和脆弱性，考虑极端气候事件（侧重在干旱、高温等）的影响，进行农业综合适应气候变化措施的示范和效果评估，从农业气象灾害的角度提出对农业生产有指导意义的适应对策建议。 Objecti
8、ve 2 Assess the future agricultural production risk of climate change. Assess the possible impact and vulnerability of climate change on agricultural production in Ningxia, in terms of extreme climate events, especially drought and hot temperature events.; demonstrate and evaluate the comprehensive
9、technologies to adapt to climate change; provide indicative suggestion in adapting to agro-meteorological hazards. 目标3：气候变化综合对策分析 Objective 3 Comprehensive agricultural adaptation recommendations to climate change, ：水资源（宁夏水利局） ： Water Resources (Hydrological Bureau of Ningxia),目标1：构建全国层面的分布式气候变化对水资源
10、影响评估模型 Objective 1 Build distributed assessment model in Ningxia 目标2：气候变化对历史水资源的影响检测 Objective 2 Risk assessments for the main rivers in NX 目标3：气候变化对未来水资源的可能影响评估 Objective 3 Water balance assessment for case study area and policy recommendations, ：适应案例研究 ： Typical Case Study for Adaptation Recommend
11、ations,目标1：主要研究气候变暖条件下推行冬小麦复种牧草、实现“一年两季”、提高冷凉山区农业生产效益的可行性 Objective 1 Under the condition of climate warming, Mainly to study the implementation of revaccination of winter wheat and pasture, to achieve one-year two seasons, and promote the feasibility of agricultural production efficiency in cold mo
12、untain areas. 目标2：主要进行气候变暖条件下中晚熟玉米新品种引进与示范栽培 Objective 2 Under the condition of climate warming, mainly to introduce and cultivate new varieties of late-maturing maize 目标3：主要进行适应气候变暖条件下中晚熟马铃薯新品种引进与示范栽培 Objective 3 Under the condition of adaptation to climate warming, mainly to introduce and cultivat
13、e new varieties of late-maturing potatoes. 目标4：主要进行豆科牧草（紫花苜蓿、红豆草）丰产及养畜利用技术示范研究 Objective 4 Mainly to study the high yield of leguminous forage (alfalfa, Onobrychis) and usage of technology in livestock,Whats new relative to the former projects,Policy-oriented Question-based From runoff to hydrology
14、concentration and routing Typical regions highlighted More practical for case study Combination for the method of top-down and bottom-up Less dependence on models,Provincial-level Risk Assessment,National-level Risk Assessment,Case Study Areas,National-level Policy Recommendations,Provincial-level P
15、olicy Recommendations,Local Adaptation Policy Recommendations,Shortcomings and the next-step work,Still in draft Lack of requirements from stakeholders Data monopoly for water resources The interaction between agriculture/grassland and water resources not highlighted Detailed task assignments Dialogues with the local authorities,谢谢！,Thank you!,
