《亚洲人口结构大转变背后的投资机会：老龄化、空巢青年和女性的未来》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《亚洲人口结构大转变背后的投资机会：老龄化、空巢青年和女性的未来（60页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、 Disclosures Indias population should grow bigger than China, while Chinas is set to shrink Meanwhile, Asians are living longer, residing in smaller households, flocking to mid-tier cities, and saving more We identify some big picture implications: empty-nesters trading up, a female future, and risi
2、ng spending on health We build on our previous research on Asias demographics with a new series. This report focuses on long-term investment themes shaped by demographics, while in the accompanying notes we work with fundamental analysts to highlight stock opportunities, starting with the consumer s
3、ector: Asia Demographics Tectonic shifts ahead for the consumer sector, 4 August 2020. Big changes are not only around the corner. Before the end of this decade, India is expected to surpass China as the worlds most populous country, which should swiftly be followed by Chinas population declining. M
4、arkets will start to consider the implications well before this happens. For instance, companies need to position themselves for slower volume growth, and instead work on their ability to raise prices possibly by offering better quality products. they are also happening now: Asians are getting older
5、, living longer, and flocking to mid-tier cities. Theyre also residing in smaller households while women are having fewer children and working more. All this impacts consumer spending. While COVID- 19 continues to cast a shadow over the regions economy, it is also accelerating some long-term trends
6、that were already underway like more online shopping. An academic view: We also interviewed Dr. Stuart Gietel-Basten, Professor of Social Science and Public Policy at HKUST. He stated that it is possible for very low fertility rates to become more common in the region. Further, he suggested that it
7、would be prudent to start planning for a time when families in Asia are not able or willing to care for their older members, and to start thinking about new types of insurance, care, and financial products to deal with this. Opportunities: (1) We expect Chinese empty-nesters to buy more premium prod
8、ucts better quality at higher prices on almost everything from food and clothing to home furnishings. (2) More women in the workforce, which contributes to higher household income and how it is spent. (3) New forms of urbanisation are unfolding too with growth higher in mid-tier cities, especially i
9、n ASEAN and India. (4) Increased health awareness and rising risks from some diseases, particularly diabetes, mean more business for pharmaceutical companies, hospitals, and sellers of health equipment. (5) Asians are living and working longer, which allows for a greater accumulation of wealth to fi
10、nance an extended period of retirement. 4 August 2020 Herald van der Linde*, CFA Head of Equity Strategy, Asia Pacific The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk +852 2996 6575 Barak Hurvitz* Associate, Equity Strategy The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited .hk +852 299
11、6 6941 Prerna Garg* Associate Bangalore * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations. Asia Demographics Equity Strategy Asia Large shifts are coming soon Equity Strategy Asia 4 August 2020 2 Asia demographic snapshot 3
12、Facts and figures 4 The big picture 5 Executive summary 6 Investment themes 9 Empty-nesters and trading up 10 The future is female 13 Rising mid-tier cities 16 Health and wellness 20 Asset accumulation 27 Demographic trends 31 Urbanisation 32 Education 36 Ageing 39 More elderly workers 42 Women work
13、 46 Fewer children, smaller households 49 Chinese empty-nesters 54 Disclosure appendix 57 Disclaimer 59 Contents 3 Equity Strategy Asia 4 August 2020 Asia demographic snapshot Source: McKinsey Global Institute Cityscape database, PISA 2018 Database, PISA at the OECD, Ministry of Education and Traini
14、ng (Vietnam), UN Household Size and Composition Around the World 2017, World Urbanization Prospectus 2018, United Nations, HSBC PISA is the OECDs Programme for International Student Assessment. Education Mainland Chinese students score well in reading tests, as do those in Singapore and Hong Kong wi
15、th Vietnams score on a similar level with the US (mean PISA score) Smaller households and Chinas empty-nesters Fertility rates are falling, as are the number of marriages lowering the average size of households and impacting saving and spending across Asia (single-person households, as a % total) 18
16、% Demographic shifts driving these investment themes Asset accumulation is a growth industry across the region More women in Asia are working and increasing household income Diabetes is a theme c42% of diabetics in the world are in India or China There is more growth in mid-tier cities across Asia than in mega cities The Chinese empty-nester the biggest demographic change globally of urban population lives i
