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1、2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,1,基于战略的报表分析新思维第一讲报表分析逻辑切入点,黄世忠 教授 厦门国家会计学院副院长 电话：0592-2578003 13906016965 电子邮件： 单位网址: ,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,2,研讨要点与目的,阐述报表分析的逻辑切入点 基于M公司与GFC公司的案例分析 案例分析 德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗? 中石油应否“海归”？ 电信业“春天的故事”还能唱响多久? 本讲旨在阐明报表分析的常见误区，把握报表分析的逻辑体系,20
2、20/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,3,从一道考倒全世界顶级MBA的难题 看财务报表分析的逻辑切入点,三大核心问题 问题1 M公司与GFC公司孰优孰劣？孰强孰弱？ 问题2 M公司与GFC公司股票市值的反差原因何在？ 问题3 如何评价M公司与GFC公司的业绩？,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,5,经营规模-TA: M公司 v.s GFC公司,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,6,经营规模-Sales: M公司 v.s
3、 GFC公司,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,7,现金流量(CFFOA)：M公司v.s GFC公司,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,8,股票市值：M公司v.s GFC公司,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,9,财务实力-NA：M公司v.s GFC公司,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,10,经营绩效-NI：M公司v.s GFC公司,2020/8/
4、6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,11,新经济与旧经济的强烈反差,财务数据：GFC v.s M (2002),2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,12,新经济与旧经济的强烈反差,财务数据：GFC v.s M (2003),2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,13,收入质量(Quality of Revenue),2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,14,收入质量(Qua
5、lity of Revenue),2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,15,利润质量(Quality of Profit)GM: -89; 995;-146; Ford: -1057; -1153; -8857,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,16,利润质量(Quality of Profit),2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,17,毛利率(Gross Profit Margin) (2003),2020/8
6、/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,18,资产质量(Quality of Assets) (2002),2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,19,资产质量(Quality of Assets) (2003),2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,20,财务风险(Debt Ratio),2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,21,现金流量趋势: G (12 v.s 73),2
7、020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,22,CFFOA v.s Free Cash Flow,EBITDA （扣除利息、税收、折旧和摊销前的利润）,- Depreciation and amortization (折旧和摊销）,- Taxes（税收）,= Net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) (税后经营利润）,- Capital expenditures (资本性支出）,- Changes in the WCR (营运资本变动需要）,= Free cash Flow (自由现金流量）,2020/8/
8、6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,23,现金流量趋势: F( 69 v.s 63),2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,24,现金流量趋势: C (12 v.s 73),2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,25,现金流量趋势: M,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,26,财务报表分析的逻辑切入点,权责发生 制会计 管理当局 动机,盈利质量,现金流量 分析,资产负债 质
9、量,核心盈利 可持续性、成长 性、现金流量,调整与调节 应计制向现金 流动制的转换,确认和计量 资产、负债、 股东权益,决 策 财务契约设计 估值与投资 信贷分析 财务风险评估 审计风险评估,差错,歪曲,报表失真问题,报表分析纬度,报表分析用途,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,27,德隆是被郎咸平搞跨的吗？,三大报表的功能区分 资产负债表 利润表 现金流量表 从“德隆系”的垮台看证券监管的误区 基于新疆屯河的案例分析,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,28,中石油（08
10、57.HK）股价周线图,巴菲特撤退,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,29,中石油（0857.HK）股价月线图,EPS: 0.59; PE: 8.47,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,30,中石油业绩因何突出？Operating Performance Perspective,雇员人数: 24.73万人，雇员薪金成本223.1，其中养老金24.7,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,31,中石油业绩因何突出？O
11、perating Performance Perspective,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,32,中石油业绩因何突出？-Financial Position Perspective,2004年末, 油气资产2358, 占FA50.3%, 机器设备1373, 占FA29.3%,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,33,中石油业绩因何突出？-Financial Position Perspective,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial State
12、ment Analysis,34,中石油业绩因何突出？-Cash Flow Perspective,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,35,中石油业绩因何突出？-Cash Flow Perspective,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,36,中石油业绩因何突出？-管理层自白,中国石油 2004年度业绩报告,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,37,PetroChina v.s ExxonMobil,2020/
13、8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,38,PetroChina v.s ExxonMobilPC: 总股本1758亿股, 国有股90%, 外资股10%, 4月8日收盘价约HK$5.00, 总市值约HK$8790亿,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,39,PetroChina v.s ExxonMobil,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,40,移动通讯案例分析市场占有率,2020/8/6,Logics of Financi
14、al Statement Analysis,41,中移动（0941.HK)股价周线图,PE: 12.84,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,42,中国联通（0761.HK)股价周线图,PE: 19.14,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,43,移动通讯案例分析营业收入趋势图(watch for comparability),2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,44,移动通讯案例分析EBIDTA,2020/8/6,
15、Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,45,移动通讯案例分析Net Income,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,46,移动通讯案例分析ROE,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,47,移动通讯案例分析财务状况,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,48,资产结构 (Impact of 3G?）,移动：电信设施2180.63，占FA的87；联通：电信设施933.08，占FA的
16、78,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,49,现金流量结构,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,50,美国电信公司概览-AT&T,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,51,美国电信公司概览-MCI (Former WorldCom),2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,52,美国电信公司概览-Sprint,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,53,美国电信公司概览-SBC,2020/8/6,Logics of Financial Statement Analysis,54,美国电信公司概览-Verizon,
