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1、1,Understanding Foreign Exchange 2 Payments Among Nations 3 The Foreign Exchange Market 4 Forward Exchange and International Financial Investment 5 What Determines Exchange Rates? 6 Government Policies Toward the Foreign Exchange Market 7 International Lending and Financial Crises,Part One,2,CHAPTER
2、 TWO,Payments among Nations 国际收支,3,This chapter examines the framework used to summarize a countrys international transactions.,5,Balance of Payments 国际收支,Balance of payments are the set of accounts recording all flows of value between a nations residents and the residents of the rest of the world d
3、uring a period of time. p13 国际收支：国际收支是指一国的居民在一定时期内（一年、一季度、一月）与他国居民之间的经济交易的系统记录。Balance of Payments Statement:国际收支平衡表 Figure 2.1,6,Accounting principles,A credit item (+): a country must be paid; payment by a foreigner into the country.,A debit item (-): a country must pay; payment by the country to
4、a foreigner.,Exports of goods Purchases by foreigners in this country Foreigners investing in the countrys bonds,Imports of goods Purchases from foreign countries Purchases by investors in this country from foreigners,7,A countrys balance of payments,Three major parts of a countrys balance of paymen
5、ts:,Current account（经常账户）,Financial account（金融账户）,Official international reserves（官方国际储备）,8,Current account 经常账户,The current account includes all debit and credit items that are exports and imports of goods and services, income receipts and income payments, and gifts.,9,Current account,goods and ser
6、vice,income,unilateral transfer单方面转移,Payments and receipts on foreign financial assets, like interest, dividends(股息) and other claims(债权).,Gifts the country makes and receives,Figure 2.1,Goods and service imports and exports,10,The net value of flows of goods, services, income, and unilateral transf
7、ers is the current account balance. Current account balance (CA) 经常账户差额 商品贸易差额、劳务差额加上收入净额和无偿转移收支净额之和。,Positive balance: Surplus (盈余) Negative balance: Deficit (赤字),11,Goods and service balance, often called trade balance(贸易差额), is the net value of exports and imports of goods and services. It is a i
8、mportant balance within the current account.,12,贸易逆差和顺差,贸易顺差 贸易的双方互相买卖各种货物，互相进口与出口，其中的差额，对甲方来说，就叫作贸易顺差，反之，对乙方来说，就叫贸易逆差。 一般就贸易双方的利益来讲，其中得到贸易顺差的一方是占便宜的一方，而得到贸易逆差的一方则是吃亏的一方。 贸易顺差越多并不一定好，过高的贸易顺差，意味着本国经济的增长比过去几年任何时候都更依赖于外部需求，对外依存度过高。,13,Contd,如中国，巨额的贸易顺差带来了外汇储备的膨胀，给人民币带来了更大的升值压力，也给国际上贸易保护主义势力以口实，认为巨额顺差反映
9、的是人民币被低估。这增加了人民币升值压力和金融风险，为人民币汇率机制改革增加了成本和难度。 贸易逆差 反映该国当年在对外贸易中处于不利地位。一国政府当局应当设法避免长期出现贸易逆差，因为大量逆差将致使国内资源外流，对外债务增加。这种状况同样会影响国民经济正常运行。,Note: we are not saying which one is good or bad,14,Reading,Chinas trade surplus with US misread 视频：中国贸易顺差总量收窄 对美升高 ,15,Financial account 金融账户,Financial account report
10、s the principal amounts only of assets traded (private capital flows). 指用于记录各机构单位（部门或经济总体）在一定时期所发生的各种金融交易的账户。,Please note: Any flows of earnings on foreign assets are reported in the current account.,16,Contd,Varieties of private capital flows,Direct investment 直接投资lending to, or purchases of owners
11、hip in,International portfolio investment国际证券投资purchases of bonds and stocks,Financial account,P15,Debit item? Credit item?,Capital outflow,Capital inflow,17,Financial account balance (FA)金融账户差额,The net value of flows of financial assets and similar claims (excluding official international reserve a
12、sset flows) is the private financial account balance（FA）.,Figure 2.1 p15,18,Official international reserves (OR) 官方国际储备,Official international reserves assets are money-like assets that are held by governments and that are recognized by governments as fully acceptable for payments between them.,Gold
13、,Foreign exchange assets, (e.g. U.S. Treasury bonds),Special drawing rights (SDRs) in IMF,Figure 2.1 p15,19,Add the three major parts of a countrys balance of payments together,According to double-entry bookkeeping, positive items + negative items = 0,20,三项之和不为零原因是统计误差和遗漏，经常是资本地下出逃。估计中国每年资金外逃6000亿RM
14、B（如贪官外逃所携带的资金），占GDP的6%，几乎吃掉中国经济的增长率。,21,Statistical Discrepancy 统计误差,It is a item created to make the accounts balance and to warn us that something was missed. Figure 2.1 note a p15,22,The CA has several meanings. 1. CA= If 经常帐户、金融帐户和官方国际储备之间的关系。 理论上三者之和为零。 则（CA=FAOR）,THE MACRO MEANING OF THE CURRE
15、NT ACCOUNT BALANCE,23,Financial account + Official international reserve,Net flows of international financial investment (private and official financial investment),Net foreign investment (If) 净国外投资,CA = If,Current account balance,Contd,24,Contd,CA = S Id A country can do two things with its nationa
16、l savings: S = Id + If so that, CA = S Id,25,Contd,CA = Y E A countrys current account balance also is linked to domestic production, income, and expenditure. Y = C + Id + G +(X M), 商品和劳务的生产= 消费+投资政府支出贸易差额 E = C + Id + G, 对商品和劳务总支出=消费+投资政府支出,National income,Expenditure,26,收入的四部门模型。四部门包括家庭、 企业、政府和国外部门。,居民户,企业,商品或劳务,货币（消费C）,提供生产要素,货币（工资或利息）,金融机构,储蓄S,投资I,政府,税收 T,支出G,国外部门,国外企业购买（出口）,向国外企业购买（进口）,27,Contd,
