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1、第07讲 知名技术分析师简介,张增伟 南开大学经济学院金融学系 ,南开大学金融学科技术分析课程（2013年春季）,本PPT的版权仅为南开大学经济学院金融学系教师张增伟本人所有，仅供学术交流之用。未经本人书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、刊登、发表或引用。本PPT中的信息均源自公开资讯，本人对这些资讯的准确性、完整性、及时性不作任何保证。任何声称依据本PPT中的信息或观点所从事的证券投资活动，其损益均与本人无关。,版权及免责声明,版权人张增伟联络方式 ,CONTENTS,目 录,4,3,2,1,5,Ralph Nelson Elliott Joseph E. Granville
2、Gerald Appel Tom Aspray George C. Lane J. Welles Wilder Larry R. Williams John Bollinger,6,7,8,1 Ralph Nelson Elliott,By EWI This article was excerpted from a detailed 64-page biography in R.N. Elliotts Masterworks (New Classics Library, 1994). This book contains all of R.N. Elliotts books and artic
3、les, plus highlights from his market letters.,Ralph Nelson Elliott was of that rarest of breeds, a true scholar in the practical world of finance. Financial analyst Hamilton Bolton accurately described the enormity of Elliotts feat when he said that he developed his principle into a rational method
4、of stock market analysis on a scale never before attempted. Brilliant and persistent, Elliott reached his ultimate achievement late in life by a circuitous route that included fortune in the disguise of disaster.,Elliott was born on July 28, 1871 in Marysville, Kansas, and later moved to San Antonio
5、, Texas. Around 1896, he entered the accounting field, and for twenty-five years held executive positions primarily with railroad companies in Mexico and Central America. By rescuing numerous companies from financial difficulty, Elliott earned a reputation as an expert business organizer. Finally, i
6、n early 1920, he moved to New York City. Elliotts specialty made him the perfect choice for one of the U.S. governments international projects. In 1924, the U.S. State Department chose him to become the Chief Accountant for Nicaragua, which was under the control of the U.S. Marines at the time. In F
7、ebruary 1925, Elliott began applying his experience in corporate reorganization to reorganizing the finances of an entire country.,When the U.S. extricated itself from Nicaragua, Elliott moved to Guatemala City to assume another corporate executive position: general auditor of the International Rail
8、way of Central America. During this time, Elliott wrote two books: Tea Room and Cafeteria Management, published in August 1926 by Little, Brown & Company, and The Future of Latin America, an analysis of the economic and social problems of Latin America and a proposal for creating economic stability
9、and lasting prosperity in the region. With one book sold and the second one under consideration, Elliott decided to return to the United States to set up an independent management consulting business. It was around this time that he began to feel the symptoms of an alimentary tract illness caused by
10、 the organism amoeba histolytica that he contracted Central America.,Elliotts reputation, built upon a distinguished career, his new book, and a long list of references, was soaring. Book reviews were favorable, he was in demand as a speaker, and his consulting business was beginning to grow. Just w
11、hen Elliotts future appeared its brightest, however, his illness suddenly worsened. By 1929, it had developed into a debilitating case of pernicious anemia, leaving him bedridden. The adventurous and productive R.N. Elliott was forced into an unwanted retirement at the age of 58. Several times over
12、the next five years, he came extremely close to death. Elliott needed something to occupy his mind while recuperating between the worst attacks of his illness. It was around this time that he turned his full attention to studying the behavior of the stock market.,Investigating the possibility of for
13、m in the marketplace, Elliott examined yearly, monthly, weekly, daily, hourly and half-hourly charts of the various indexes covering 75 years of stock market behavior. In doing so, he was fulfilling a mission that he had enunciated for all responsible men in his manuscript on Latin America: There is
14、 a reason for everything, and it is ones duty to try to discover it.” In May 1934, two months after his final brush with death, Elliotts observations of stock market behavior began coming together into a general set of principles that applied to all degrees of wave movement in the stock price averag
15、es. Todays scientific term for a large part of Elliotts observation about markets is that they are fractal, coming under the umbrella of chaos science, although he went further in actually describing the component patterns and how they linked together. The former expert organizer of businesses had u
16、ncovered, through meticulous study, the organizational principle behind the movement of markets. As he got more proficient in the application of his principles and corrected initial errors in their formulation, their accuracy began to amaze him.,By November 1934, R.N. Elliotts confidence in his ideas had developed to the point that he decided to present them to at least one member of the financial community: Charles J. Collins of Investment Counsel, Inc. in Detroit. Collins had traditionally put
