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1、,Ann Arbor Buenos Aires Christchurch Frankfurt Kuala Lampur London Madrid Melbourne Milan Paris Porto Alegre Stockholm Zurich,National Customer Satisfaction Indices by Claes FornellDonald C. Cook Professor andDirector, National Quality Research CenterUniversity of Michigan Business School,“An econom
2、y cannot be described by adding up how many tons of rebar it makes, how many passenger miles of air travel it logs, how much wood its woodchucks chuck per hour. All these things count (and we count them), but in the final analysis what matters is how well an economy satisfies its customers ” (Thomas
3、 Stewart, Fortune, 1995),The Measured Economy Includes ,Pig-iron production Coal production Railroad operating income Rail freight Etc. ,The Economy Is Changing,How We Measure Performance isAlso Changing,The Old World,The New World,Mass production and consumption of commodities,Increasingly customiz
4、ed goods, services and information,Productivity,ProductivityandCustomerSatisfaction,Implications for Companies,Customer Asset Management isBuilt on the Following Principles,Satisfied customers are an economic asset that yields future cash flows These cash flows can be calculated as discounted presen
5、t value Costs to grow the customer asset baseare investments Skillful management of the customer asset is essential for long-term profitability,Customer Asset Value in Global Markets,ECSI (Europe),KCSI (Korea),MCSI (Malaysia),ACSI (Australia),ACSI (Argentina),BCSI (Brazil),MCSI (Mexico),CCSI (Canada
6、),ACSI, Global Competition The Role of Intangibles,Major Reasons for a National Index of Customer Satisfaction,Quality of economic output is essential toliving standards Customer satisfaction is a leading indicator of company economic performance Customer satisfaction contributes to economic growth
7、and job creation Necessary measure for CPI, productivity, and ultimately, GDP,Some Important Economic Indicators and a NEW One!,National Economy, Sectors and Industries*,$665 B,$582 B,$472 B,$392 B,$277 B,$106 B,$62 B,* The size of each of the seven sectors is shown above as the percent of the total
8、 1994 gross domestic product. Sales figures reflect the total sales for the selected U.S. firms. The total sales of the selected firms are 51% of the GDP for these seven sectors and 38% of the national GDP.,Coverage,Seven sectors Forty industries Two Hundred+ companies and agencies $2.7 trillion sal
9、es (U.S. companies),The Respondents,Approximately one million sampled randomly,Screened: Recent experience as a customer of the selected companies,Approximately 250,000 completed interviews,Customer Expectations,ACSI Model,Perceived Service Quality,Satisfaction Comparison w/ Ideal Confirm/Disconfirm
10、 Expectations,Perceived Overall Quality,Perceived Value,Customer Complaints,Customer Loyalty,Repurchase Likelihood Price Tolerance (Reservation Price),Overall Customization Reliability,Overall Customization Reliability,Price Given Quality Quality Given Price,Perceived Product Quality,Reliability Cus
11、tomization Overall,Reliability Customization Overall,Complaint Behavior,Customer Satisfaction (ACSI),ACSI Companies Included ,Changes in National ACSI,Customer Satisfaction and Economic Performance: The Evidence to Date,ROI or ROAPositive and significant relationship(U.S. and Swedish data) Ricardian
12、 RentsPositive and significant relationship(Tobins Q)(U.S. data) Market ValueOne point ACSI = $647 Million Market To BookPositive and significant relationship(U.S. data) Risk MeasuresNegative and significant relationship(with loyalty variable not ACSI) Stock Price ReturnsHigh ACSI and SCSB firms out
13、 perform the market(U.S. and Swedish portfolios) Stock Market ReactionStatistically significant reaction followingpublic release of ACSI results (U.S.) Economic Value AddedPositive and significant relationship with MVA,Ricardian Rents,Ricardian Rents,State-Dependent Specification,A Simple Valuation
14、Model Using the ACSI,Customer Satisfaction as anEconomic Asset,An asset must have a relevant attribute that can be measured in monetary terms with sufficient reliability. (FASB) “One clear driver of wealth production is customer satisfaction.” (Commissioner Steven Wallman, Securities and Exchange Co
15、mmission, 1997) If true, there should be a relationship between changes in the expected discounted present value of the future income stream that customer satisfaction will generate and changes in the ACSI.,Market Value Added (MVA) ,A measure of the wealth a company has created for its investors. It
16、 is calculated as the difference between what investors put in and what they can take out.,*Significant at .05 level * Significant at .01 level,ACSI (1994),MVA (1995),ACSI (1996),.24*,Correlations:,.33*,Decrease inshort-term earningsandRising Customer Satisfaction,Earnings PowerEnhanced,Increase inshort-term earningsanddecline incustomer satisfaction,Earnings powereroded,ACSI and Dow Jones: Percent Changes 1995 - 1998 (April),Dow Jones Moving Average,ACSI
