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1、 Camping along the Big Long RiverAbstract Understanding the impacts of human recreation on natural resources is of critical importance in constructing effective management strategies. The Grand Canyon River Trip Simulator is a computer program that modelscomplex, dynamic humanenvironment interaction
2、s in the river corridor of the Grand Canyon National Park. The system consists of a database and simulator engine. The database contains 487 trip diaries that report all stops for activities and camping along the 447 km Colorado River corridor within the purview of the National Park Service.The comp
3、uter simulation employs statistics and artificial intelligence in creating an individual-based modeling system. This simulation system successfully models the recreational rafting behavior and captures the decision making of rafting parties as they responsively seek to optimize their experience. The
4、 model allows the Park managers to assess the likely impact of various alternative management scenarios for rafting trips on the Colorado River. The Grand Canyon River Trip Simulator advances our abilities to model complex systems in the context of humanenvironment interactions. It may serve as a su
5、itable template for modeling a suite of other complex adaptive systems including ecosystems.Keywords: Agent-based modeling; Individual-based models; Simulation; Grand Canyon National Park; Recreation; Humanenvironment interactions1. IntroductionThe Grand Canyon in the western United States is well k
6、nown as one of the natural wonders worldwide. Besides viewing the spectacular canyon landscape, an extremely attractive recreational activity in the Grand Canyon National Park is river rafting on the Colorado River. The park allocates use through special licenses to 16 commercial river outfitting co
7、mpanies, and maintains a waiting list for noncommercial (private)permits. Trips range from 3 to 22 days. Some trips include an exchange, where passengers hike or take a helicopter ride in or out of the canyon(only possible at two locales). Boats enter the river at Lees Ferry and proceed up to 447 km
8、 to their take-out location, which can be either Diamond Creek or Pearce Ferry (in Lake Mead).Along the way, boaters can choose from many different activities and campsite locations, whichmay include hiking, swimming or archeological cultural sites. River trips are governed by launch schedules, whic
9、h control the day trips begin, thenature of any passenger exchanges that occur, and the day and location where the trip ends. Implicit in the launch schedule are the number of user days that are affiliated with each individual trip. A user day is one person on the river for 1 day, which is used by t
10、he park to control the number of people allowed on the river. While the allocation of user days to the various rafting outfitters is fixed by contract, the managers of the Grand Canyon National Park can modify launch schedules to influence the patterns of rafting traffic on the Colorado River, and t
11、hus to optimize the flow patterns on the river. Some 22 000 recreational users raft the river annually. This number does not include the crew on commercial trips, the administrative use, or the science trips that also spend time on the river. To get a sense of the popularity of river rafting in the
12、Grand Canyon, the current waiting list for private river permits is about 12 years long, whereas commercial trips need to be reserved 1 or 2 years in advance. With the increase in the demand for access to the Grand Canyon for rafting activities, there is a concern that a higher volume use of the riv
13、er could result in either a negative impact on the natural resource or a decline in the wildernessexperience desired by the users. Moreover, the long waiting list clearly indicates an increasingly severe problem of accessibility. Ideas for resolving these issues vary greatly. There are several const
14、ituent groups passionately involved in the political issues surrounding recreationaluse of the Colorado River within the Grand Canyon National Park. While some groups demand increased access to the river, others request reducing the impact of human use. While some groups support the use of motorized
15、watercraft, others are against it. The issues of access and impact are complex, and the Grand Canyon National Park has conducted numerousscientific studies to help aid decision making (for example, see Brian and Thomas, 1984; Hall and Shelby, 2000; Kearsley and Quartaroli, 1997;OBrien and Roberts, 2
16、000). The Colorado River Management Plan (Colorado River Management Plan, 1989) is the guiding document that sets limits on recreational use within the park. A key component of the 1989 CRMP included the suggestion that a computer model be designed that could directly assist park managers. The belief was that a computer model could offer insight into the dynamics of humanenvironment interactions that could inform the management
