《《精编》麦肯锡中国移动总体战略(英文)》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《《精编》麦肯锡中国移动总体战略(英文)（75页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、CONFIDENTIAL China sMobileTelecomServicesIndustryOverview GCOPracticeDevelopment ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSANDREFERENCES MGMsandCSSinvolvedintherelevantstudiesincludethefollowing TonyPerkins BEI StefanAlbrecht BEI ChipperBoulas HKO PeterKenevan TOK PerchowJosephChang SHA AndrewWu HKO HaiWu BEI JaneXing HK YiF
2、eng BEI ShengFLi SHA YoshinobuTakanuki TOK GraemeHunter JOH JuliaYang BEI EricXu BEI JasonLiu BEI ShirleyChen BEI TheseriesofPDsincludethefollowing ChinaMacroeconomicEnvironment China sMobileTelecomServiceIndustryOverview China sInternetIndustryOverview ChinaTelecomEquipmentandServicesOverview China
3、 sMobileHandsetSectorOverview ChinaTelecomIndustryRegulatoryOverview KeySuccessFactorsandCaseStudiesofMNCsEntrytoChina KEYMESSAGES 1 China smobiletelecomservicemarketishugeandfastgrowing representingUS 21billionmarketsizein2001andUS 38billionin2005 Thismarketissupportedbytheworld slargestsubscriberb
4、aseat145million alreadycomprising15 oftheworld stotalin2001andgrowingtopotentially218millioninalowcaseor300millioninahighcaseby20052 Thecompetitivelandscapeformobileserviceshasevolvedfromasingleregulatorandoperatortotoday sduopolyofChinaUnicomandChinaMobile bothofwhomareunassociatedwiththeMinistryof
5、InformationIndustries AsecondbreakupofChinaTelecomisexpectedtoformtwolargetelecomoperators ChinaTelecomandChinaNetcomGroup whoarelikelytoreceivemobilelicenses Afifthtelecomoperator ChinaRailcom alsohasthepotentialofreceivingathirdgenerationlicenseandbuildingamobilebusiness Fornow ChinaMobiledominate
6、sthemarketwith82 valueshareand72 subscribershareandownsmuchofthehighvalueuserbase Howeverchurnisalreadyhighandisexpectedtoincreasewithcontinuingpricingpressuresandincreasedcompetition 3 WirelessdataservicesareexpectedtogrowquicklyinChinatoamarketofpotentiallyoverUS 4billionby2005 usedby43 ofallmobil
7、eusers Interestfromconsumersurveyshavebeenhighandoperatorsandotherplayersareactivelybuildingservicesinthemarket WhileearlyWAPserviceshavefailedtocatchon SMShasgrownexponentiallywithupto20billionSMSmessagesin2001 Theearlyadopterswillbemobileprofessionalsandmodernyouth whowillrequireservicesanddevices
8、tailoredtotheirneeds 4 Regulatorychangesloom particularlywiththeaccessionofChinatotheWTO WhileforeignerswillbeunlikelytosetupMVNOs WTOwillallowgreaterparticipationofforeignersinbasicandvalueaddedservices althoughgeographiclimitationswillexistthrough2004andChineseplayerswillberequiredtoownatleast50 o
9、ftelecomserviceventures 51 forbasicservices Regulatoryrisksremain withnomeanstoappealregulatordecisions unclearinterpretationofregulationincludingWTOcommitments andthegovernment strackrecordofintransparentandunpredictabledecisionmaking SeeseparateregulatoryPDfordetails AppendixPlayersprofiles3Gtechn
10、ologystandardschoices KEYMESSAGES 1 China smobiletelecomservicemarketishugeandfastgrowing representingUS 21billionmarketsizein2001andUS 38billionin2005 Thismarketissupportedbytheworld slargestsubscriberbaseat145million alreadycomprising15 oftheworld stotalin2001andgrowingtopotentially218millioninalo
11、wcaseor300millioninahighcaseby2005 1997 2001MOBILESERVICEREVENUEGROWTHOF30 CAGRHASOUTPACEDOTHERTELECOMSERVICESECTORSANDISPROJECTEDAT16 THROUGH2005 RevenuesUS Billions CAGRvs otherindustries 1997 2001 Percent Mobile Fixedline Paging CAGR30 CAGR16 Source DeutscheBank McKinseyanalysis Revenuesdonotequa
12、ltheproductofARPUassubscriberfiguresareprovidedforyearend notaveragesubscribersduringayear Detailedinformationonthetimingofnewsubscriptionsandchurnrequiredforthecalculationofaveragesubscribersduringagivenyearisnotavailable AllCAGRsarecalculatedontheannounceddataSource DeutscheBank JPMorgan MII EXTRA
13、ORDINARYSUBSCRIBERGROWTHISTHEPRIMARYDRIVEROFREVENUEEVOLUTION MORETHANMAKINGUPFORLARGEDECLINESINARPUDUETOSTIFFCOMPETITION Mobilerevenues Billions Numberofsubscribers lowcaseMillions CAGR30 CAGR16 CAGR83 ARPUUS month CAGR 24 CAGR 7 PenetrationinitiallylowGovernmentbackingforincreasingsubscribernumbers
14、RelativelylowfixedlinepenetrationLow endprepaidsubscriberincrease Drivers DeclineduetoincreasedprepaidandlowerspendingbylateentrantsTariffreductionascompetitionincreasesSlightlyoff setbyincreaseindatatrafficinlateryears CAGR19 208 235 263 291 17 16 15 15 Announced Effective 05forecastuselowcase nets
15、ubsafterinactiveandmulti sim cardreduction MajorEuropeancountriesinclude UK France Italy Germany Netherlands Spain SwedenSource JPMorgan WEFA WMM MII McKinseyanalysis Japan CHINAISTHEWORLD SLARGESTMARKETINTERMSOFSUBSCRIBERS HAVINGOVERTAKENTHEUSIN2001 US MajorEuropean countries CAGR 30 CAGR 14 CAGR 7
16、 NumberofmobilesubscribersMillions CAGR 13 China lowcase China highcase CAGR 22 CHINA SMOBILESUBSCRIBERBASEISGROWINGMORERAPIDLYTHANANYOTHERMAJORMARKET COMPRISING15 OFWORLDTOTALIN2001 Afirca EasternEurope MiddleEast Canada Forecastof02 05usethehighcase netsubsafterinactiveandmulti sim cardreductionSource JPMorgan Gartner2001 DeutscheBank MerrillLynch PiperJaffray 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001E 207 300 482 727 965 1 178 1 393 1 633 100 GlobalmobilesubscribersMillionsubscribers percent WesternEurope US
