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1、Source:Document Type:Subject Terms:Abstract:Discusses the common features associated with banking crises and whether distress signals may be identified before serious problems arise. Link between episode of banking distress and depositor runs on banks or closure or merger of financial institutions;
2、Reasons for banks vulnerability to adverse shocks.摘要：讨论了银行业危机的共同特征和查明导致危机的信号，银行和银行之间以及银行和存款人之间的关系恶化，在银行或金融机构合并，这些都会给银行造成负面冲击。Persistent link to this record (Permalink):atabase: EARLY WARNING INDICATORS OF BANKING SECTOR DISTRESS 银行业风险预警指标Contents1. 频繁的银行业危机2. 为什么银行业更易受到攻击？3. 早期预警指标4. 制度特色5. 避免银行危机6.
3、 参考文献The financial crises in Japan and East Asia have been costly; they disrupted credit金融危机在日本和东亚频繁;他们不仅在这些国家破坏信贷渠道和减少经济活动而且在世界的其他地方也是如此。channels and curtailed economic activity not only in those countries but in other parts of the world as well. Such high costs make it desirable to have some form
4、of early 这就增加银行成本，如此高的成本，使得建立一个银行业风险预警系统迫在眉梢。warning system of impending banking sector distress. If policymakers could identify 如果政策的制定者能一个考虑到更多导致银行危机因素的预警系统，那么银行业才有可能采取措施，来避免一些风险。 the factors that lead to a higher likelihood of banking problems, they might be able to take steps to avert them. Of c
5、ourse, each banking crisis usually has idiosyncratic 当然，每个银行的危机都有自己的特点。但是同样我们也可以看到在很多国家和个别案例中，银行各部门的危机具有共同的特征。features. But there may also be common features associated with episodes of banking sector distress identifiable across a large number of countries and cases. This 把这些导致银行陷入危机的共同特点联系在一起，查明这些
6、信号是否可以作为银行陷入危机前的会出现的状况。 Economic Letter discusses the common features associated with banking crises and whether distress signals may be identified before serious problems arise. An episode of banking distress may be associated with depositor runs on banks, the 一个银行业的危机的产生可能涉及到储户在银行的运作，关闭或者合并金融机构,或大
7、规模地延长政府补助。closure or merger of financial institutions, or the extension of large-scale government assistance. Typical characteristics of a financial system under stress include a 不良资产和有限的基础资本的重要投资组合会压迫金融系统的典型特征。significant portfolio of nonperforming assets and a limited capital base. Using these mea
8、sures, Glick and Hutchison (1999) find more than 94 episodes of 在20世纪70年代中期使用这些措施以来，格里克和哈奇森（1999）发现超过94组银行业陷入危机是那些工业化和发展中的国家。banking sector distress in industrial and developing economies since the mid-1970s. And they find the frequency is rising-nine crises were marked in 1975-80, 34 during 在34年间，他
9、们又发现频繁地发生了九次银行业危机，特别是1975-1980年，1991-1995，到了1997年出现了7种新的危机还有29中旧的危机仍在延续。1991-95 and, by 1997, there were seven new and 29 continuing episodes. Banking crises are commonplace regardless of development status, but they occur with somewhat greater frequency in developing or emerging market economies th
10、an in industrialized economies. 不管一国的经济发展状况如何，都有银行业危机的发生的可能，但是在一些发展中国家或者一些新兴市场就可能频繁的发生。Banking crises generally impose significant costs on the economy. One cost is the loss of output.银行业危机通常会带来重大经济成本，造成很大一笔损失费流出。The great majority of countries have suffered recessions following episodes of banking
11、sector distress, with the cumulative output loss associated with periods of banking sector distress averaging about 10% of GDP (Hutchison and McDill 1999). 绝大部分的国家遭受到的经济衰退是伴随着银行业危机，随着费用流失的大量积累，银行业危机造成的损失平均约为国内生产总值的10%（哈奇森和摩纳哥戴尔 1999）These costs range widely across countries, of course.这些成本的涉及到了不同国家，
12、当然，像智利和泰国等国家早在20世纪80年代初就遭受了严重的输出损失，总计超过好几年的国内生产总值的25%。最近经验显示，东亚金融危机造成的最终损失也是相当惨重的。 Countries such as Chile and Thailand in the early 1980s suffered severe output losses, amounting to over 25% of GDP over several years. Recent experience indicates that the ultimate costs of the East Asia financial cr
13、ises also will likely be very large. Another cost is the fiscal cost associated with government efforts to solve the problems in the financial system. 而政府努力解决金融体系出现的问题，又关系到了另一种费用的支出即财政费用。Direct government funds to recapitalize banks, shore up deposit insurance funds, and so on, amounted to a signifi
14、cant portion of output and a huge commitment of government budget resources-usually somewhere between 6-10% of GDP. 政府用基金来调整银行资本，支持存款保险基金等。相当于用政府的预算资金（通常介于6-10%的国内生产总值）去做一个巨大的承诺。Again, the range in fiscal costs is large. Estimates of the resolution costs of Argentinas and Chiles banking crises in th
15、e 1980s were over 40% of GDP (Caprio and Klingebiel 1996).在20世纪80年代，阿根廷、智利的银行危机的解决花费的成本超过了国内生产总值的40%，所以说解决银行危机的成本是巨大的（(Caprio and Klingebiel 1996)。 This same study puts the cost of resolution cost of the U.S. thrift industry bailout in the 1980s at just over 3% of GDP. 同样的一个例子，在20世纪八十年代花费了超过国内生产总值的3%来紧急救助储蓄业。The commitment of additional funds by the Japanese Diet in 1998 to shore up the deposit insurance fund and recapitalize problem banks brings the cumulative fiscal cost to date (after seven years of banking problems) t
