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1、1 SMALLFORCES Microtrends TheSmallForcesBehindTomorrow sBigChanges MarkPenn NY HatchetBookGroup 2007 ISBN 0 446 58096 1 2 Whilemostfuturisticgurushavelookedtothelargechangeagents Penntakesanunusualapproach Helooksattheworldofsmallchangesthatmaynotevenbenoticedbymostpeople 3 youcan tunderstandtheworl
2、danymoreonlyintermsofmegatrends oruniversalexperiences p xx Intoday ssplinteredsocieties youhavetounderstandtheintenseidentitygroups themicrotrends 4 LatelytherehasbeensomethingofacottageindustryofmarketersandsociologistswhowilltellyoutheTenorFifteenThingsYouMustKnowtogetthroughthenexttwoorfiveorten
3、years p xx What Heslammedsociologists 5 Thesepeoplewhoaretryingtomarketthemselves defineandrefinetheworldaroundthemwithevercuterandcleverernamesfortheconsumer cultural andpersonalchangesgoingoninsociety p xx Penniscriticalofsomeofthemacrochangeanalysiswithcutepackaging 6 Pennfindsnewperspectiveinmic
4、rotrends Hisbookidentifies75categoriesofpeoplewhichhesaysrepresentimportantmicrotrends 7 SAMPLESOFMICROTRENDGROUPS InternetmarriedWorkingretiredInterracialfamilies 8 OldnewdadsMilitantillegalsShymillionaires 9 UptowntattooedXXXmenAmericashomeschooledEducatedterrorists 10 Theseareasamplingofthecatego
5、riesofpeoplewhoareviewedbyPennasrepresentingmicrotrendsthatarechangingpartsoftheworld Therearesomany 75inthebookbuthundredsmore thatonlythissamplingwillbementionedhere 11 ThemajorpointisthatPennisturningthemacroforcesapproachonitshead Pennacceptstheimportanceofmacroforces butcontendsthatanotherpiece
6、ofrealityexplainingchangeinourworldismicroforces 12 Thisisaninterestingandsensiblepoint However thisideaseemstomakeunderstandingchangeevenmoredifficult wearecalledontoweavetogethertheinterplayofmacroandmicroforces 13 Understandingonlymacroforcesandtheirimpactondifferenttypesofculturescanbeamonumenta
7、ltask 14 Tounderstandthemacroforcesalongwithhundredsofmicroforcesastheyinterrelateandinfluencedifferenttypesofculturesmaybebeyondamonumentaltask Butlet sseewhatelsePennsaysaboutmicrotrends 15 SOCIETALATOMS Penncallsthesesmalltrendssocietalatoms Mostpeopledon tseethesetrendsbecausetheyperceiveholisti
8、cally 16 Datacollectionandanalysisthroughtheuseofstatisticsisthewaytobecomeawareofthesemicrotrends Wemayknowamarriedcouplewhometontheinternet buthowwidespreadisthistrend Dataanalysiscananswerthatquestion 17 Thesamepointcanbemadeforretiredpeoplewhoareworkinginadifferentjob Wemayknowsomeretireeswhoare
9、working butisthisjustanisolatedbehaviororisitasocietaltrend Datacollectionandanalysiscanprovidetheanswer 18 TheveryinterestingpointPennismakingisthatsimplybylivingourlives wecan tseethesemicrotrends Wecanseeisolatedbehaviorsbutnotknowhowwidespreadthebehaviorsarewithoutresearch 19 PennsaystheU S isch
10、anginginwaysfewpeopleareunderstandingorappreciating Therateoffelonscomingoutofprisonistripling Ifwedon thelpthesereleasedfelonsfitintosociety crimewillgoup 20 Illegalimmigrantswhousedtohideintheshadowsareflexingtheirpoliticalmuscles Unlessweaddressthem theymayplayaroleinU S politics 21 Increasingnum
11、bersofpeoplearegoingintothenonprofitsectoroftheeconomy notseekingwealthbutwantingtomakeadifference Ifthiscontinues thedefinitionof success maychange 22 Thepotentialforpersonalsatisfactionduetoindividualchoiceandfreedomisatitshighestlevelever 23 Factionsareemergingbasedonpersonalchoice Newcommunities
12、 sometimesonlinecommunities areemerging 24 SocietiesliketheU S arebeingsplinteredbythesenewfactionsthatformcommunities Pennseessomenegativesandsomepositivesfromthissplintering 25 Thesenseof community withinanationorcitywilldecrease butPennsaysduetotheexplosionofindividualexpression autocratic dictat
13、orialgovernmentswilldecreasearoundtheworld 26 Pennsuggeststhatweshouldbewatchingmicrotrendsaswellasmacrotrendsifweseektounderstandourchangingworld 27 Thevalueofthisbookinthiscourseisforustoberemindedthatchangecomesfromavarietyofsources andsometimessmallforcesshapeanation andaworld 28 Thisisthelastvideopresentation Wehavealottothinkabout Wehavealottoapplytothenationsweshallstudyintheremainderofthiscourse 29 Enjoy Think Emailorcallmewhenyouhaveaquestion
