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1、STRATEGYANDTHEINTERNET TRENDSANDPREDICTIONS RealTechConferencePeterStanger E COMMERCEISDEAD E CommerceIsDead LongLiveE Commerce TheIndustryStandard April2000 Going Going Gone Business to ConsumerSectorGoesBust F April2000 Canyoubuildabrandonlinesellingthird partygoods Theanswerisno eventhougheveryon
2、eusedtothinktheanswerwasyes BryanRutbert WarburgDillonRead Thelivingdeadhavegottenawaywithmurderbecausethepublicmarketshavefundedriskierventures LookatA ifcouldbethebiggestlivingdeadthepublicmarketshaveeverseen WarrenPackard DraperFisherJurvetson TOMSIEBELCEO SiebelSystems Ifyoucan tgenerateprofits
3、significantmarketshareandcustomersatisfaction youreoutofbusiness OntheB2Bexchangeside Idon tthinkanyonewillsurvive Theyareallgone THECAPITALMARKETSHADITALLWRONG ISTHEREVOLUTIONOVER July28 1794 THEBUMPYRIDEOFECONOMICREVOLUTIONS 1860 1890 1895 1925 FUNDAMENTALFORCESAREATWORK LONGDISTANCE Wholesale Net
4、work Design buildOperations maintenanceResale interconnection RetailSales marketingAccountmanagementBilling RetailSales marketingAccountmanagementBilling NetworkDesign buildOperations maintenanceResale interconnection Retail RetailNetworkintelligenceValueaddedservices WholesaleservicecreationNetwork
5、intelligenceValueaddedservices Networkmanagement dispatch Wholesale PHARMACEUTICALS Research Development Trials Registration Manufac turing Sales marketing IncreaseddevelopmentcostsRoleofblockbustersincreasingQualityoutsourcersavailableEasiercoordination 1980s 1990s Research Development Trials Regis
6、tration Manufac turing Sales marketing Academiclabs Biotechfirms Contractresearchorganizations Contractmfrs PBMs JVs licensing ELECTRICUTILITIES COMPUTERINDUSTRY AT T MCIandSprint fragmentedradically Microprocessors integratedcircuits memorychips Computers Operatingsystems Applicationssoftware Marke
7、ting sales anddistribution CommonstandardsTimebasedcompetition 1995 Intel Motorola AMD Compaq Dell Apple PackardBell IBM DOSandWindows UNIX MacOS OS 2 MicrosoftOffice WordPerfect Others Retail Superstores On line Mailorder NeXt IBM Digital 1997 Primaryfuel Powergeneration Trading Distribution Backwa
8、rdintegrationtoreduceriskForwardintegrationtoopensupplychannels Scalethroughfocusingonhugepowerplants Synergythroughbundlingcapabilitiesofgeneraltradingandenergybusiness Newservicesforthecustomer Ruhrkohle Mobil BP Shell NationalPower UK Electrobel Belgium RWE Germany NorskKraftmegling Norway Enron
9、UnitedUtilities UK South ernWater EasternElect ricity UK Stadt werkeMunch en Ger many 1990 1995 1985 1990 Statkraft Norway OsloEnergi Norway EVO Germany IVO Finland MANYINDUSTRIESEXPERIENCINGAREDEFINITIONOFCOMPETITIVEBOUNDARIES MASSIVEREDISTRIBUTIONOFTHEMARGINPOOLISOCCURINGDigitalPhotographyExample
10、Camera Film Equipment Paper chemicals Photo finisher Reprint enlarge Store display Sharewithothers Processing Analogvaluechain KodakandFujidominate Majorplayers 2000U S marketshare CanonNikonOlympusMinoltaKodakFuji Kodak 66 Fuji Kodak Qualex 40 FujiPhotohuts AlbummanufacturersFramemanufacturers Mail
11、services disposables EXPLOSIVEGROWTHINONLINERETAILINGCONTINUES 65 1 17 8 Source TheStateofOnlineRetailing2 0 3 0and4 0 Shop orgsurveysconductedbyTheBostonConsultingGroup SECfilings MediaMetrixandHarrisInteractivedata industryassociationreports analystreportsNote Excludesfinancialbrokerage 11 5 15 2
12、NorthAmericanBusiness to ConsumerRevenues B 20 6 132 66 46 26 7 44 5 Onlinechannel 10 shareinseveralcategories CATALOGUERSAREWINNING EBITMarginin ofRevenues 1999 2000 Source TheStateofOnlineRetailing2 0 3 0 4 0 Shop orgSurveysconductedbyTheBostonConsultingGroup ADVANTAGEINCUMBENTS OnlineRetailing Ds
13、MarketplacesCLECs CataloguersGE Big3ILECs IXCs B2B Telecom RENAISSANCEOFTHEFUNDAMENTALS THEVASTMAJORITYOFCHANGEANDTRANSFORMATIONLIESAHEAD Illustrativeviewoftransformingforces Circa2010 Technology Globalization Deregulation Electroniccommerce Source BCGanalysis Deregulationandglobalizationindex 1999
14、100 Technologyandelectroniccommerceindex 1999 100 APERSPECTIVEONOPPORTUNITIESINREALESTATE LEVERAGEYOURASSETS Assetturns sales assets Cashflowmarginin ofsales Retail ConstructionMachinery Automobile Chemicals Utilities RealEstate Airline Autoparts Aerospace Telecom Source BCGAnalysis APERSPECTIVEONOPPORTUNITIESINREALESTATE LEVERAGEYOURASSETS AccessFibreWirelessSatelliteAssetproductivityfocus e Procuremente SalesMarginfocus OpportunitySpace Source BCGAnalysis
