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1、Global Macro Meets Micro Covid 19 Impact What is the spillover impact on the US corporate sector M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H Global Morgan Stanley Howard Kao Industrial Kevin Luo Basic Materials Rachel Zhang M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H 10 Global Macro Meets Micro February
2、 20 2020 Spillovers into the US Four Channels of Impact The coronavirus outbreak could potentially affect US economic activity through four primary channels 1 Direct demand channel Reduced production and consumption activity in China will directly reduce demand for some US exports 2 Indirect supply
3、chain effects A sustained cut to production in China could limit the supply of inputs to US production which would cause disruptions in manufacturing activity in the US For US firms it helps that they are going into this with healthy inventory levels Particularly inventory sales ratios for US wholes
4、alers remain elevated in part because trade policy uncertainty led them to build up stocks of many Chinese imported goods over the last year creating a decent amount of space for wholesaler inventories to get drawn down before supply becomes tight 3 Tourism channel Reduced spending by Chinese touris
5、ts may be reflected in individual components of PCE and retail sales e g in categories like hotels and other luxury spending But aggregate consumption expenditures on a GDP basis would not be impacted by reduced tourism flows While spending in the US by nonresidents is taken out of PCE it is added b
6、ack to GDP as an export of travel services so the impact from reduced tourism would be felt in lower US exports 4 Financial conditions 12 reported that companies were exposed through supply chains and roughly one third of analysts reported that companies were exposed through both end demand and supp
7、ly chains 24 reported no exposure at all Industries Exposed Through End Demand 33 Industries Exposed Through Supply Chains 12 Software Gaming and secondly that the impact for Coty is going to be pretty small relative to competition since China represents only 3 of our sales ELEstee Lauder Companies
8、Inc 10Q2 6 2020Household we are not yet able to estimate and forecast the impact for the second quarter through fourth quarter With respect to the coronavirus our China business will be impacted by the actions of the Chinese authorities to address the outbreak and the protracted shortages of raw mat
9、erials and logistics on our supply chain IFFInternational Flavors largest impact is to oil gas demand which affects global pricing Thomas Allen Gaming Hong Kong 852 2848 5999 Latin America 1 718 754 5444 U S London 44 0 20 7425 8169 Singapore 65 6834 6860 Sydney 61 0 2 9770 1505 Tokyo 81 0 3 6836 90
10、00 Alternatively you may contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway Attention Research Management New York NY 10036 USA Analyst Certification The following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this repo
11、rt are accurately expressed and that they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report Matthew Harrison Michael J Wilson Sean Wu Unless otherwise stated the individuals listed on the cover page of t
12、his report are research analysts Global Research Conflict Management Policy Morgan Stanley Research has been published in accordance with our conflict management policy which is available at A Portuguese version of the policy can be found at br Important US Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companie
13、s The analyst or strategist or a household member identified below owns the following securities or related derivatives Matthew Harrison Analog Devices Inc common or preferred stock Apple Inc common or preferred stock Procter we correspond Equal weight and Not Rated to hold and Underweight to sell r
14、ecommendations respectively Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley received investment banking compensation in the last 12 months Due to rounding off of decimals the percentages provided in the of total column m
15、ay not add up to exactly 100 percent Analyst Stock Ratings Overweight O The stock s total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analyst s industry or industry team s coverage universe on a risk adjusted basis over the next 12 18 months Equal weight E The stock s total return i
16、s expected to be in line with the average total return of the analyst s industry or industry team s coverage universe on a risk adjusted basis over the next 12 18 months Not Rated NR Currently the analyst does not have adequate conviction about the stock s total return relative to the average total return of the analyst s industry or industry team s coverage universe on a risk adjusted basis over the next 12 18 months Underweight U The stock s total return is expected to be below the average tot
