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1、1 Intermediate Macroeconomics Lecture 11 2 The Macroeconomic Policy Debate lWilliam McChesney Martin The fed s job is to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going 联储的工作是在宴会进行时拿走盛满酒的酒杯 The economy is inherently unstable 3 The Macroeconomic Policy Debate lMilton Friedman 我们需要的不是把经济之车的方向盘一直
2、调整到 不可预期的无规则之路上的高超货币司机 The economy is naturally stable 4 The Macroeconomic Policy Debate 1 Active or passive 2 Free to use discretion or fixed policy rule 5 Should Policy Be Active or Passive lActive In the absence of an active government role in the economy events like the Great Depression could oc
3、cur regularly fight shocks by fiscal monetary policy 6 Should Policy Be Active or Passive lPassive Lags in implementation unemployment insurance Martin Weitzman profit sharing 7 Should Policy Be Active or Passive lPassive Economic forecasting is difficult index of leading indicators economic models
4、8 Should Policy Be Active or Passive e g 制造业工人平均生产周数 平均每周州失业保障首次申请 发放的新建筑许可证 敏感原料的价格变动 股票价格指数 根据通货膨胀调整的货币供给 消费者预期指数 9 Should Policy Be Active or Passive lIgnorance expectations the Lucas Critique Robert Lucas Expectations play a crucial role in the economy Expectations depend on policies Estimating
5、the effect of a policy change requires knowing how people s expectations will respond Traditional methods of policy evaluation do not adequately take into account this impact of policy on expectations 10 The Historical Record lStill cannot settle the debate because it is not easy to identify the sou
6、rces of economic fluctuations Multiple interpretations are reasonable lWe did better Or the data did Is the stabilization of the economy a figment of the data Christina Romer 11 Should Policy be Conducted by Rule or by Discretion The debate over rules v s discretion is distinct from the debate over
7、passive v s active policy e g MS will grow steadily at 3 per year MS will grow at 3 u 6 12 Should Policy be Conducted by Rule or by Discretion 1 Why not by discretion 2 Possible policy rules 13 Why Not by Discretion 1 Distrust of policy makers the political process Incompetence political process is
8、erratic reflects shifting power of special interest groups economy is complicated while politicians often do not have sufficient knowledge charlatans propose appealing but incorrect solutions 14 Why Not by Discretion 1 Distrust of policy makers the political process Opportunism Macroeconomic policy
9、used as electoral ends political business cycle 15 Why Not by Discretion Real GDP growth Democratic Truman 0 88 97 63 7 Kennedy Johnson 2 36 14 35 8 Johnson6 46 52 54 7 Carter4 75 42 8 0 3 Clinton I2 33 52 33 4 Clinton II3 94 24 53 7 Average3 15 843 5 16 Why Not by Discretion Eisenhower I4 6 0 77 12
10、 0 Eisenhower II1 9 1 07 42 4 Nixon3 00 13 35 5 Nixon Ford5 8 0 6 0 45 4 Reagan I2 3 2 14 07 0 Reagan II3 63 12 93 8 G H W Bush 3 41 2 0 92 7 G W Bush0 52 23 1 Average3 10 33 34 1 17 Why Not by Discretion 2 Time inconsistency of discretionary policy Policy makers tend to announce policy change in ad
11、vance to influence the expectations If private decision makers really have acted on the basis of their expectations policymakers has an incentive to renege 18 Rules for Monetary Policy lMoney supply grow at a steady rate lNominal GDP target lPrice level target All 3 are nominal variables nobody know
12、s exactly what the real levels are 19 Rules for Fiscal Policy lBalanced budget rule Budget deficit or surplus can help stabilize the economy be used to minimize the distortion of incentives caused by the tax system be used to shift tax burdens between different generations 20 Conclusions lLucas As a
13、n advice giving profession we are in way over our heads There is no simple and compelling case for any particular view of macroeconomic policy lWeigh the various arguments lCannot sit back and wait till knowledge has been perfected lBe cautious when making advice 知识回顾知识回顾 Knowledge Knowledge ReviewReview
