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1、 Chapter 5: Household Saving and Investment Decisions Objective Financial decisions in an uncertain world; Human capital, permanent income decisions over life cycle 1 第五章: 居民户的储蓄和投资决策 Copyright Prentice Hall Inc. 2000. Author: Nick Bagley, bdellaSoft, Inc. 学习目的 不确定世界中的金融决策； 生命周期中人力资本、 永久性收入决策 2 Chap
2、ter 5 Contents 目录 5.1 A Life-Cycle Model of Savings 生命周期储蓄模型 5.2 Taking Account of Social Security 考查社会保障 5.3 Deferring Taxes through Voluntary Retirement Plans 通过自愿性退休计划延迟支付税收 5.4 Should you Invest in a Professional Degree? 你是否应当投资于一项专业学位？ 5.5 Should you Buy or Rent? 你应当购买还是租赁？ 3 Objectives 学习目的 Ho
3、w much to save for retirement Whether to defer taxes or pay them now Whether to get a professional degree Whether to buy or rent an apartment 为退休储蓄多少 延期纳税还是现在纳税 教育投资决策 购房还是租房 4 5.1 A Life-Cycle Model of Saving 生命周期储蓄模型 Assume that you are currently 35 years old, expect to retire in 30 years at 65, a
4、nd then live for 15 more years until 80 假定你现在35岁，预计30年后在65岁退休，然后再 生存15年直至80岁 Your real labor income is $30,000/year until age 65 你的实际收入在65岁之前都保持每年3万美元 Interest rates exceed inflation by 3%/ year 利率每年比通货膨胀率高3%，即实际利率3% 5 How Much Should I Save and Consume? 储蓄多少？消费多少？ Consider two approaches: Target re
5、placement rate of pre-retirement income Maintain the same level of consumption spending 有两种用来计算应当为退休储蓄多少的方法： （1）以盯住退休前收入的置换率为目标； （2）以退休前后保持相同消费支出水平为目标 6 1. Target replacement rate of pre-retirement income 方法一：盯住退休前收入的置换率 First compute the retirement income. 首先计算退休收入 Many experts recommend a rate of
6、75% of the pre- retirement income. 许多专家建议置换率等于退休前收入的75% $30,000*0.75 = $22,500/year 将退休基金看作普通年金计算现值，65岁时你需要 n=15, i = 3, PMT=22,500 - PV=268,604 7 Next compute how much you need to save each year 然后计算你每年需要储蓄多少钱 n=15, i = 3, FV= 268,604 - PMT=5,646 To obtain $22,500 you need to save $5,646 per year 为
7、了能在15年间每年取出22500美元的退休收益，你 需要在接下来的30年里(35-65岁)每年储蓄5646美元 1. Target replacement rate of pre-retirement income 方法一：盯住退休前收入的置换率 8 Target replacement rate Conclusion 盯住置换率方法的结论 You will have noticed that your pre-retirement consumption is $30,000 - $5,646 = $24,354; but the real retirement income is only
8、 $22,500 你会注意到，当你每年将3万美元中的5646美元储 蓄时，你退休前的消费是34354美元，但是在退休后 你的收入仅为22500美元。即70的置换率 The next method equates consumption 下一种方法使消费保持一致 9 2.Maintain the same level of consumption spending 方法2：保持消费支出的相同水平 Assume that your level of real consumption is C 假设你每年的消费水平是C 在接下来 80-35=45 年间的消费总额现值，必须等 于 65-35=30 年
9、间退休收益的现值 n = 30, i = 3, PMT = 3,000 - C=23,982 The savings are then $30,000 - $23,982 = $6,018 因此，在退休前每年需要储蓄6018美元 10 Human Capital and Permanent Income 人力资本和永久性收入 (P165) Human capital The present value of ones future labor income 人力资本：未来劳动收入的现值 Permanent income The constant level of (real) consumpt
10、ion spending that has a present value equal to ones human capital 永久性收入：现值等于人力资本的不变消费支出水平 11 收入 和 消费 12 人力资本 和 财富总量 13 The Inter-temporal Budget Constraint 跨期预算约束 P168 Ct = consumption spending in year t 第t年的消费支出 Yt = labor income in year t 第t年的劳动收入 i = interest rate 利率 R = number of years to retire
11、ment 直至退休的年数 T = number of years of remaining life 生存年数 W0 = initial wealth 初始财富价值 Bt = bequest made in year t 第t年的遗产 14 Note that any lifetime consumption spending plan that satisfies your budget constraint (i.e. equation 5.2) is a feasible plan. (P169) 注意，任何满足预算约束（即方程5.2）的终生消费 支出计划都是一项可行计划 The Int
12、er-temporal Budget Constraint 跨期预算约束 15 Omars Life-Cycle Savings Plan 奥马尔的生命周期储蓄计划 薪水 消费 储蓄 16 5.2 Taking Account of Social Security 考察社会保障 In many countries the government obliges citizens to participate in a mandatory retirement income system called social security 在许多国家，政府要求公民参加一种被称为社会保障 的法定退休收入体
13、系 Contributors pay a tax during their working years, and in return qualify for a lifetime annuity in old age 人们在工作期间支付税收，作为回报，在年老时有资 格获得终身年金 17 5.3 Deferring Taxes Through Voluntary Retirement Plans 通过自愿性退休计划延迟支付税收 Many countries encourage voluntary savings for retirement through provisions of the t
14、ax code. 许多国家通过提供税收法律鼓励为退休进行自愿储 蓄 In the US employees are permitted to set up Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) that defer payment of taxes until retirement 在美国，员工被允许开设个人退休帐户（IRAs） ，该账户可以延付税收直至退休 18 These plans are called tax deferred rather than tax exempt because any amounts withdrawn from the
15、 plan are taxed at the time of withdrawal. 这些计划之所以被称为税收延付而非税收豁免，是因 为任何从该计划里取出的金额在提取时是要被征税的 5.3 Deferring Taxes Through Voluntary Retirement Plans 通过自愿性退休计划延迟支付税收 19 The Advantage of Tax-Deferred Saving 税收延付的优势 20 The tax-deterred savings plan provides a larger after-tax benefit 税收延付型储蓄计划提供更大的税后收益 When your tax rate remains unchanged, the benefit of deferral can be summarized in the rule: 当税率保持不变时，税收延付的利益可以概括为下述原则： Deferral earns you the pretax rate of return after tax. 延付使你在缴税后还能赚取税前的收益率 (P174) 5.3 Deferring Taxes Through Voluntary Retirement Plans 通过自愿性退休计划延迟支付税收 21 5
