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1、GLOBAL ENERGY OUTLOOK OIL UPSIDE RISING CAPEXRESEARCH COMMODITIES, CREDIT AND EQUITY VIEWS1 March 2012GLOBAL ENERGY OUTLOOKOIL UPSIDE, RISING CAPEXBarclays Capital does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware thatthe firm may ha
2、ve a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qua
3、lified asequity research analysts with FINRA.FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S), PLEASE SEE PAGE 149.FOR IMPORTANT FIXED INCOME RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 149.FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 151.Barclays Capital | Global Energy Outlook OVERVIEW Tight oil and LNG, upst
4、ream bias, rising capex Tim Whittaker Exposure to oil and LNG markets, and a bias to upstream growth and rising capex are the +44 (0)20 3134 6696 main global energy investment themes we see across commodities, credit and equities. tim.whittakerbarcap4 Oil has very little spare production capacity gl
5、obally well below 2% and demand, even in Barclays Capital, London a weak global economy, still outstrips supply, based on our analysis. We also believe Asian oil demand is growing at a faster pace than markets are currently pricing in. Our Brent price forecast for 2012 is $115/bl, rising to $135/bl
6、in 2015, with the balance of risk to the upside. New LNG markets, robust prices Global LNG trade expanded significantly in 2011, led by strong Asian demand in the aftermath of the Tohoku earthquake. Liquefaction capacity additions will slow sharply in 2012-13, with regasification capacity outpacing
7、supply additions by a factor of 4:1. This will provide a significant number of new potential destinations for cargoes and we expect LNG prices to remain strong. Prefer equities with oil bias, In equities, the upstream has consistently been the highest return segment and we expect it growth and explo
8、ration upside to remain so. We recommend integrated companies with an upstream and growth bias, and US, Canadian and European E&Ps that are leveraged to oil prices, growth and exploration. Strongly rising capex supports Strongly rising capex is a consequence of tight oil markets and higher price
9、s. We see multi-oil services year industry capex growth of >10%, with mid-teens growth in 2012. We recommend oil service equities, and highlight oil service opportunities in credit where cash flows are robust. US HY energy credit no longer at Also in credit, we no longer see the value discount of
10、 high yield to high grade that we a discount, prefer HY highlighted in our last Global Energy Outlook six months ago. Subsequent performance has closed this gap. We are now overweight the US HG sectors, notably pipelines and oil field services, as well as oil refiners and electric utilities. In Euro
11、pe, we are Overweight HG integrated energy and in Asia we are Underweight HY coal. Negative on US natural gas, coal, The energy markets where we are less positive are US natural gas, coal, power utilities and power and carbon carbon. We do not yet see an upturn in US natural gas prices, and advise i
12、nvestors to stay short. US thermal coal prices have been dragged down by gas displacement, and we forecast an extended period of oversupply. In China, coal infrastructure investment has eased domestic supply constraints, and we also expect improved output from South Africa and Australia, all of whic
13、h suggest more supply in the Atlantic and Pacific seabourne coal markets. Power and power utilities in all regions will continue to experience what we believe will be weak markets, dampening our enthusiasm in commodities and equities, although in the US the defensive high yield credits are attractiv
14、e. We prefer more defensive regulated utilities in the US and Europe to power price leveraged names. Renewables economic In the volatile sectors of oil products/refining and renewable energy, we expect ongoing challenges price swings and we would trade selectively. We still like US refining equities
15、, but see structural challenges globally as a wall of refining capacity comes onstream over the next few years. In renewables, we expect significant new solar and wind capacity, and the economics are challenging. We prefer opportunities in electric cars and battery recycling. Overall, we continue to
16、 believe there is value in comparing investments across the energy spectrum, and in the following pages we set out the views and investment ideas of all of our analysts in commodities, credit and equities. A complete list of our energy research analysts is provided on page 160. Our library of published energy research, plus additional analytical tools, is available on our award winning Barclays Capital Live website, at live.barcap. 1 March 2012 1 Barclays Capital | Glob
