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1、江南大学 博士学位论文 农户可持续农业生产行为理论与实证研究 姓名：刘梅 申请学位级别：博士 专业：食品贸易与文化 指导教师：王咏红;张灏;高瑛 2011-07 摘 要 I 摘 要 摘 要 可持续发展是人类共同的目标。走农业可持续发展之路保障粮食安全、食品安全与 农业生态安全是我国现阶段和未来农业发展的根本战略。 在我国， 农户是可持续农业的生产主体。 本文深入分析农户可持续的农业生产行为， 旨在为优化农户行为，推动我国实现农业可持续发展提供政策的理论依据与现实依据。 基于这一研究目标，本文在对相关文献与理论基础进行回顾、梳理的基础上，首先分析 我国目前农业发展中的生态环境问题现状并实证分析我
2、国农业发展与农业生态环境污 染的关系。进而分析农业生态环境问题的经济学成因。接下来，分析农户可持续的农业 生产行为，这构成了本文的核心研究内容。在这一研究阶段，首先利用博弈论分析工具 分析农户可持续农业生产的博弈抉择。然后，沿着认知意向实践这一农户生产行为 的动态过程，构建农户可持续生产行为分析框架，建立了农户农业生态环境降级问题认 知模型、农户可持续农业生产认知模型、农户可持续农业生产意愿模型、农户可持续农 业生产实践模型四个计量模型，并利用山东省农户的调研数据，对农户的可持续农业生 产现状及影响农户可持续农业生产行为的深层次因素进行分析。最后，在上述研究的基 础上，提炼研究结论，提出政策建
3、议。 本文的研究表明： （1）我国目前的农业生态环境问题严重，农业发展与农业生态环 境污染之间存在倒 U 型曲线关系，且我国目前的农业增长尚在倒 U 型曲线的左侧，农 业增长离转折点仍有较大距离，在不采取措施的情况下，农业发展过程将会伴随着更多 的农业生态环境污染。 （2）通过农户可持续农业生产的博弈抉择分析得出，促进我国农 户生产方式转向可持续需要技术创新和建立起可持续生产的生态环境友好农产品的消 费市场。利用日照消费者的调研数据，建立 logit 模型，探讨建立可持续生产的生态环 境友好农产品消费市场的可行性， 以及影响消费者对生态环境友好农产品需求意愿的因 素， 得出， 建立可持续生产的
4、生态环境友好农产品消费市场是可行的。 除了价格因素外， 受教育程度和对农业生态环境问题的认知也是影响消费者生态环境友好农产品购买意 愿的显著因素。 （3）在基于“认知意向实践”动态过程建立起的包含四个计量模型 的农户可持续生产行为研究框架下，分析农户可持续生产行为得出，农户对农业生态环 境降级问题认知程度不高， 农户对可持续农业生产重要性的认知程度和可持续农业生产 意愿较高，但是并没有导致农户较高的可持续农业生产实践。受教育程度、农业信息的 获取显著且正向影响着农户农业生态环境降级问题的认知、 农户可持续农业生产重要性 的认知和农户可持续农业生产意愿。 受教育程度和农户的组织化生产显著且正向影
5、响着 农户的可持续农业生产实践程度。 基于以上研究结论，提出相应的政策建议：（1）我国农业可持续发展需要技术创 新作为支撑。（2）建立并完善生态环境友好农产品的消费市场。（3）政府应更好地为 农户提供可持续农业技术信息服务。（4）加大对农户可持续农业生产措施和技术相关 知识的教育和培训力度。（5）提高农户的农业组织化生产水平。（6）健全和完善农业 可持续发展的法制建设。（7）奖励或补贴以及惩罚作为辅助性措施。 摘 要 II 本文的主要创新就在于以农户行为作为研究的切入点，研究视角新颖并创造性地构 建了农户可持续农业生产行为的分析框架。建立了农户农业生态环境降级问题认知模 型、农户可持续农业生产
6、认知模型、农户可持续农业生产意愿模型、农户可持续农业生 产实践模型四个计量模型，并利用山东省农户的调研数据，对农户的可持续农业生产现 状及影响农户可持续农业生产行为的深层次因素进行分析， 揭示了农户的可持续农业生 产行为的动态过程。 引入博弈论分析农户可持续农业生产的博弈抉择。 通过农户与政府、 农户与农户之间的博弈分析， 探讨了建立可持续生产的生态环境友好农产品消费市场的 可行性。 关键词：关键词：农业可持续,农户,行为 Abstract III Abstract Abstract Sustainable development is the common target of human b
7、eings. Taking the road of sustainable agricultural development to ensure food security, food safety and agro-ecological security is the fundamental strategy of Chinas present and future agricultural development. In China, farmer is the main body of sustainable agricultural production. In this paper,
8、 the farmers sustainable agricultural production behavior was analyzed in depth for the purpose of providing theoretical and practical basis for the policy making to optimize farmers agricultural production behavior and promote the sustainable development of agriculture in China. For this research o
9、bjective, based on a review of the previous literatures and relevant theories, firstly, the current situation of the agro-ecological environmental problems resulting from the agricultural production were stated and the relationship between agricultural development and agro-ecological environmental p
10、ollution from agricultural production were empirically analyzed; secondly, the analysis of the economic reasons for agro-ecological environmental problems were made; thirdly, farmers sustainable agricultural production behavior was analyzed, which constitutes the core of this research. In this part,
11、 at first, game theory was used to analyze farmers choice of sustainable agricultural production; then, along the farmers dynamic agricultural production behavior process of perceptionintention practice, a study framework for farmers sustainable agricultural production behavior was constructed, unde
12、r which four econometric models-farmers awareness of environmental degradation, farmers perception of the importance of sustainable agricultural production, farmers willingness of sustainable agricultural production and farmers practice of sustainable agricultural production, were established to emp
13、irically analyze the current situation of farmers sustainable agricultural production and the factors influencing the farmers sustainable agricultural production behavior based on the survey data of Shandong Province, China. Lastly, policy recommendations were provided according to these study resul
14、ts. The results showed that: (1) China faces serious agro-ecological environmental degradation problems. The relationship between agricultural development and agro-ecological environmental pollution was shown by an inverted U-curve. Chinas current agricultural growth was still at the left of inverte
15、d U-curve far from the turning point. The process of agricultural development would be accompanied by more agricultural environmental pollution without active measures. (2) Through game analysis for farmers choice of sustainable agricultural production, technology innovation and establishment of con
16、sumer market for the eco-friendly agricultural products under sustainable production were needed to promote farmers transition to sustainable agricultural production. The feasibility of establishing consumer market for eco-friendly agricultural products and the main factors influencing consumers purchase willingness of eco-friendly agricultural products were studied based on the survey data of the consumers in Rizhao city, Shandong province, China by logit model. The resu
