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1、中国科学技术大学 硕士学位论文 人员疏散中个体和群体行为的实验和计算机模拟研究 姓名：刘少博 申请学位级别：硕士 专业：安全技术及工程 指导教师：杨立中 20100501 摘 要 I 摘摘 要要 当发生火灾或踩踏事故时，人员疏散困难问题往往成为威胁人们生命安全 的重要因素， 进行紧急情况下人员行为和人员疏散规律的研究对保障社会公共安 全水平意义重大。但由于灾难性事故的危险性和不可重复性，人们能够获取到的 真实事故资料非常有限， 因此各国的研究者较多地是通过小规模的疏散演习或实 验来获得人员疏散过程的经验数据， 然后利用计算机技术对人员行为和疏散过程 进行模拟研究。 本文首先开展了一组在布满桌椅
2、的教室内进行的在报警声音指导下的人员 疏散实验。 实验中我们通过让被试者戴上不透明的眼罩来模仿火灾等事故中由于 烟气或断电而造成的人员视野受限的情况，并与不戴眼罩的情况进行了对比。通 过对出口流量， 个体疏散时间， 人员行走路线等的统计和分析， 我们从报警声音、 人员视野和出口宽度三个角度阐述了这三个因素对疏散过程和人员行为的影响。 通过观察实验录像，我们还发现了疏散中的“速度变化”、“性别差异”、“依 附行为”以及“潜意识环境认识及其衰退”等特殊现象。在这些实验结果的基础 上，我们用元胞自动机模型进行了一系列模拟研究。 通过分析实验中人员对出口的选择和观察录像，我们发现除了与出口之间 的距离
3、外，出口处的人流密度也是影响人员出口选择的因素之一。人们往往更加 倾向于选择人少的出口，尽管这些出口距离自己更远些。因此，我们在一个元胞 自动机模型中引入了出口区域人流密度因子来模拟人员对出口区域内人流密度 的认识和判断行为。模拟结果和实验结果的对比研究表明，对人员的出口选择行 为来讲，除了距离出口的远近以外，出口处人流密度也是不可忽视的。在模型中 引入出口处人流密度因子可以使模拟结果与真实情况更接近。 实验中我们还观察到了人员对环境信息的潜意识认识行为，即人员对环境 比较熟悉时会在大脑中产生对环境的潜意识认识， 即使失去了视觉也能够依靠潜 意识的指导合理地进行疏散，但这种潜意识认识会随时间的
4、推移而逐渐消退。我 们根据这一实验结果，在对比分析“地场”元胞自动机模型几种不同基本模拟规 则的基础上提出了考虑人员视野受限情况下对环境的潜意识认识行为及其消退 的模拟模型，并对实验进行了模拟研究，结果表明声音信息在人员视野受限时比 不受限时发挥了更大的作用，但却不是决定性的作用，因为人员的潜意识环境认 识行为使得在视野受限时环境信息并没有完全被忽略。 模拟结果与实验结果比较 符合。 最后，我们探讨了人员疏散中的男女性别差异和人员之间的信息传递行为。 摘 要 II 通过观察实验录像和分析实验中不同性别的人的疏散时间、速度以及行为特征， 我们发现男性比女性平均速度要高出 0.20.3m/s，并且
5、同一实验条件下，同一位 置的不同性别学生所需的疏散时间是不同的，总体上女性所需的时间比男性长。 然后， 我们在元胞自动机模型的基础上建立了考虑男女性别差异的计算机模拟模 型，研究了人员疏散过程中的性别差异及其对疏散结果的影响。另外，本文还结 合实验中观察到的人与人之间的信息传递现象，采用“多层信息地图”的元胞自 动机模拟方法实现了对出口堵塞和存在隐蔽出口等特殊疏散场景下人员之间信 息传递现象的模拟。 结果表明这种多层信息地图模拟可以有效表达人群的各向异 性。 关键词关键词：人员疏散； 实验； 元胞自动机； 人员行为； 出口区域人流密 度； 潜意识环境认识； 男女性别差异； ABSTRACT I
6、II ABSTRACT Since life safety closely relies on an efficient evacuation under fire condition or stampede, to implement the research of human behavior and evacuation dynamics under emergency conditions becomes very meaningful for our public safety. But due to the dangerousness and unrepeatable proper
7、ty of these catastrophic disasters, there are very limited data can be retrieved from real calamitous events. The most commonly used methods for the research of evacuation dynamics should be evacuation drills, lab-scale evacuation experiments and the simulation of evacuation process and human behavi
8、or using computer technologies. In this thesis, a group of evacuation experiments under the guidance of alarm signal have been carried out in a classroom with ordered desks. During part of the experiments, the participants were asked to wear opaque masks to mimic the condition of restricted visibili
9、ty because of fire smoke or power failure and this was compared with the normal condition. By investigating and analyzing the exit outflow, the individual evacuation time and the route choice behavior etc., we studied the influence of the alarm signal, the sight condition of participant and the exit
10、 width on the evacuation process and human behaviors. Several special phenomena, namely “speed varying”, “gender discrepancy”, “touch-and-attach behavior”, and “Subconscious environmental information perceiving behavior and its attenuation”, were observed in the video record. Corresponding simulatio
11、n research has also been conducted based on these experimental results. Through the analysis of the participants exit choice behaviors, we found that except the distance from the exits, the density of people near exits may also accounts for which exit people will choose. It seems that people are pro
12、ne to choose the less crowded exit, although they may be a little further. A Cellular Automaton model was revised by considering the exit area population density to simulate evacuees perceiving and judging of the population density of the exit area. The simulation and experiment results have shown t
13、hat the exit area population density cannot be ignored and the simulation result can be more realistic by considering this parameter. The phenomenon of “subconscious environmental information perceiving behavior and its attenuation” has also been observed in the experiment. People can build a cognit
14、ive virtual map of the environment in their brain when they are familiar ABSTRACT IV with it and use the “map” to look for a reasonable escape route or choose the right exit when they cannot see. But this subconscious may be attenuated with the time elapsed. According to this phenomenon, a simulatio
15、n model considering this behavior was developed based on the detailed comparisons of several basic rules used in the “Floor Field” Cellular Automaton model. The simulation result under the same condition of the experiment showed that although the influence of the sound information in the “blind” env
16、ironment was more significant than that in the normal condition, the sound was not the only decisive factor, because the environmental information was not totally unknown in the “blind” condition due to the subconscious information perceiving behavior. At last, we studied the gender discrepancies and the information communication behaviors in evacuation. We found that the average speed of male participants was 0.203m/s larger than that of the female participants and with the same experime
