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1、IEA China NEET Workshop-Energy Technology Collaboration Chinese Future Energy Trend and Way Out 中国未来能源趋势和出路 李政 教授李政 教授 / Prof. LI Zheng 清华大学清华大学/ Tsinghua University Beijing Friendship Hotel，Beijing，1 2 November 2007 北京友谊宾馆，2007年11月1-2日 中国能源的整体特征：大而且快速增长总量，石油，煤炭中国能源的整体特征：大而且快速增长总量，石油，煤炭 Character of
2、 Chinese Energy：huge amount and fast increasing 1990-2005中国一次能源1990-2005中国一次能源 - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 19901995200020051990199520002005 年份 一次能源消费量/亿吨一次能源消费量/亿吨 coalcoaloiloilNGNGhydelhydelnuclearnuclear 中国2005年一次能源消费构成中国2005年一次能源消费构成 Oil 21.06% Natural Gas 2.72% Coal 69.62% Nuclear Energy 0.76% Hy
3、dro electric 5.84% OilNatural GasCoalNuclear EnergyHydro electric Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2006 Energy Consumption in China (Except Coal) 0 100 200 300 400 500 1990199520002005 Year M illio n to e PetroleumNGHydroNuclear 2 1 Coal Consumption in ChinaCoal Consumption in Chin
4、a 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 19941996199820002002200420062008 Year coal assumption / Mt 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 19941996199820002002200420062008 Year coal assumption / Mt 中国能源的未来发展趋势中国能源的未来发展趋势 Chinas future energy trend ?未来能源需求还会继续增长2.46btce2006 Chinas future
5、energy demand will certainly increase ?2020 4.0btce; 20305.0btce, 20506.0btce ?未来能源消耗的变数在于应对能源安全和气候变化 的意愿和行动力度 Variation of energy demand mainly depends on the willing and efforts in addressing energy security and climate change ?To decrease oil import dependency will increase both energy demand and
6、 carbon emission dramatically. ?Deployment of CCS in coal power generation may cause higher coal consumption. Should be the last measure. 中国能源的困局：降低能源需求与能源安全及二氧化碳减排中国能源的困局：降低能源需求与能源安全及二氧化碳减排 China Energy dilemma: lowering demand vs. energy security & CO2 1.替代石油进口引起化石能源消耗和 二氧化碳排放增加 替代石油进口引起化石能源消耗和 二氧
7、化碳排放增加 OID decrease causes higher fossil fuel use and carbon emission 2. 发展非化石能源有助于减少化石能 源使用并减少二氧化碳排放 发展非化石能源有助于减少化石能 源使用并减少二氧化碳排放 More Non-fossil fuel use could decrease fossil fuel use and carbon emission 3. 碳埋存有助于减少二氧化碳，但会 消耗更多的化石燃料 碳埋存有助于减少二氧化碳，但会 消耗更多的化石燃料 CCS can further decrease carbon emissi
8、on but cause more fossil fuel use 人为控制石油进口依存度的代价有多大？人为控制石油进口依存度的代价有多大？ Whats the cost for limiting oil import dependency (OID)? 极端的例子 an extreme example极端的例子 an extreme example 假定石油需求11亿吨，自产1.8亿吨， 对外依存度为83.6%，欲控制在60% 假定石油需求11亿吨，自产1.8亿吨， 对外依存度为83.6%，欲控制在60% Assuming oil demand as 1100Mt and OID as 83
9、.6%. Limit OID to 60% Assuming oil demand as 1100Mt and OID as 83.6%. Limit OID to 60% 需煤代油6.5亿吨，消耗煤炭21.6亿吨 标准煤，多排放的二氧化碳为39.4亿吨 需煤代油6.5亿吨，消耗煤炭21.6亿吨 标准煤，多排放的二氧化碳为39.4亿吨 650Mt CTL，which needs 2.16btc coal and causes 3.94bt CO2 650Mt CTL，which needs 2.16btc coal and causes 3.94bt CO2 我国2005一次能源消费量22.2
10、4亿吨我国2005一次能源消费量22.24亿吨 China primary energy consumption at 2005 was 2.224btce China primary energy consumption at 2005 was 2.224btce 从能源系统演变角度看应对二氧化碳问题的策略从能源系统演变角度看应对二氧化碳问题的策略 Look at CO2reduction from energy system evolution Coal CCS Chain Coal conversion plant /anthropological CO2sources Direct c
11、oal firing PP IGCC / Poly-generation Coal-chemical plant Oxy-fuel/chemical looping Coal resources Coal transportation CO2sink EOR Aquifer other CO2 transportation Natural CO2 resources GOAL CO2 Reduction Alternative energy & energy saving Energy saving Nuclear Hydropower renewable Expensive uncertai
12、nty Expensive reliable 中国能源的长远出路：改善在役主力能源的同时，大力发展方向性替代能源中国能源的长远出路：改善在役主力能源的同时，大力发展方向性替代能源 Long term way-out：improving incumbent energy and develop desirable alternative energy Transport ation Power cellulosic ethanol FT-biodiesel Electrical vehicle Plug-in hybrid vehicle Hydrogen FCV No-conventional
13、 oil CTL Coal methanol / DME First gen. biofuel Hybrid vehicle 石油基燃料石油基燃料 Petroleum Hydropower Nuclear power Wind power Solar photovoltaic Solar thermal other renewable power Coal hydrogen power Post combustion carbon capture coal power 煤炭火力发电煤炭火力发电 Coal fired power 方向性替代方向性替代 Desirable alternative
14、权宜性替代权宜性替代 Expedient alternative 在役主力能源在役主力能源 Incumbent major energy 替代能源替代能源 Alternative energy 常规能源常规能源 Norm energy 中国能源的出路节能优先中国能源的出路节能优先 Energy way-out prioritize conservation China Energy intensity: international practice Peak: lowing down with time proceeding Shape: “” tending to “” Energy int
15、ensity: Chinese practice In general: lowing down dramatically Recent: rebound recently 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 19491956196319701977198419911998200520122019 China Energy intensity （ Tce/104RMB,2000 Price ） 中国能源的出路发展低碳电力中国能源的出路发展低碳电力 Energy way-outlow carbon power 中国能源的出路发展低碳电力中国能源的出
16、路发展低碳电力 Energy way-outlow carbon power 中国能源的出路权衡和优化替代燃料发展的最优规模中国能源的出路权衡和优化替代燃料发展的最优规模 Energy way-out optimize alternative fuel amount By establishing strategic petroleum reserve, the optimal amount of alternative fuel can be decreased. Optimal amount of alternative fuel New energy security theory should be adopted. Incorporate into and help the stability of global oil market Measures such as diversification and SPR be prioritized to AF acti
