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1、南京财经大学 硕士学位论文 江苏省经济增长差异及趋同的实证研究 姓名：马娟 申请学位级别：硕士 专业：统计学 指导教师：杨益民 2008-01 I 摘 要 摘 要 区域经济差异有助于形成区域间你争我赶的局面， 最终推动一个地区乃至整 个国家的经济快速、高效发展。但这种差异的长期存在和过分拉大，将会成为威 胁社会和谐与协调发展的重大障碍之一。改革开放以来，江苏经济综合实力不断 增强，同时其内部差异也不断扩大。为了江苏经济能够持续、快速、健康、协调 发展，以及“两个率先”目标的顺利实现，我们应深入考虑以下几个问题：影响 江苏区域经济增长差异的主要原因是什么？这种差异是否有缩小的趋势即是否 存在趋同
2、趋势、影响其趋同的因素以及趋同的路径等等。在这一背景下，本文通 过对江苏区域经济增长差异及其趋同问题的研究，就上述问题进行了回答。 本文以经济增长理论为基础，运用加权标准差、加权变异系数来描述、分析 江苏地区经济增长的差异状况，并运用泰尔系数对这种差异进行分解，从而清晰 地表现出经济增长的差异状况以及差异的来源构成； 江苏经济增长的趋同性检验 及影响因素分析通过三部分来完成： 首先利用 Sala-I-Martin 等人所提出的检验模 型对江苏经济增长的三种趋同性进行检验， 接着采用计量经济模型分析了江苏经 济增长趋同的影响因素，然后通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解，比较经济增长的不 同影响因素在经济
3、增长中的贡献差异， 从而揭示了江苏地区经济增长差异形成的 主要原因； 通过对江苏不同区域主要宏观经济变量间因果关系的分析来探究江苏 经济增长的趋同路径。 基于以上分析和研究，本文得到以下主要结论：江苏区域经济增长差异总体 呈扩大、甚至持续扩大的趋势；区域间的差异始终是总体差异的决定因素；江苏 经济总体上不存在-趋同和明显的绝对-趋同，但引入地区变量滞后，便存在 条件-趋同，同时，不同地区在不同阶段也存在或长或短的俱乐部趋同现象； 在经济增长趋同的影响因素中，物质资本、初始人力资本、产业结构因素的推动 作用更显著些；物质资本对江苏经济增长的贡献率最大，其次是人力资本、第三 产业，且第三产业对经济
4、增长的贡献率有继续增长趋势；探究出江苏区域经济增 长趋同的一条路径；文章最后得出了一些政策启示，并指出在以后相关问题的研 究中有待进一步考虑及研究的问题。 关键词： 经济增长差异；影响因素；趋同性；趋同条件；趋同路径 II ABSTRACT Regional economic disparity is advantageous in forming the situation between the regions which you struggle me to catch up with, ultimately promotes a region and even the entire n
5、ational economy develop rapidly and efficiently. But this difference exist a longtime and enlarge excessively, which will be one of the significant barriers that threat to social harmony and coordination. Since reform and opening up, with the comprehensive economic strength has strengthened unceasin
6、gly in jiangsu, and its internal difference also expanded unceasingly. For economic sustained, rapid, healthy and coordinated development in jiangsu, as well as “the first two” goals to be realized smoothly, we should consider the following questions thoroughly: the primary reasons for this disparit
7、y; this disparity is whether there is a narrowing trend that is the existence of convergence trends; the factors affect its convergence; what kind of convergence path it will take, and so on. Under this background, the paper through the analysis of differences and convergence of jiangsu regional eco
8、nomic growth, studys the above questions. This paper bases on the theory of economic growth, uses the weighted standard deviation and the weighted coefficient of variation to describe and analyze the situation of Jiangsu regional economic growth differences, and use the Theil coefficient on economic
9、 growth in Jiangsu Province differences to break it down, thus clearly illustrates the situation of Jiangsu economic growth, as well as the source and constitution for it; Through three parts to analyze the convergence and the factors of jiangsu economic growth: first, use the model made by Sala - I
10、-Martin to test three kind of economic growth, and then use an econometric model of economic growth in analyzing the factors of Jiangsu economic growth convergence, and then through the impulse response function and variance decomposition, compare the contribution of factors affecting economic growt
11、h in various regions of Jiangsu Province, which reveals the main reason for differences; through the analysis of the main macroeconomic variables causal relationship in different regions of Jiangsu, study the path of Jiangsu economic growth convergence. Based on the above analysis and empirical stud
12、ies, the paper comes to the following main conclusions: Jiangsu regional economic growth differences have had III expanding overall, and even continued to widen; Inter-regional differences in the overall difference is always the determining factor; differences of economic growth there is no -converg
13、ence and obvious-convergence generally, but exist the condition -convergence, and exist either long or short club convergence in different areas or different stages; physical capital, the initial human capital, industrial structure factor, which impetus function are more remarkable in factors that i
14、mpact on economic growth; the material capital provides the largest contribution rate, followed by human capital, and the tertiary industry and the contribution rate of tertiary industry to the economic growth has continued to trend growth; the path of Jiangsu regional economic growth convergence .
15、Finally, the paper suggests some policy suggestion based on the above conclusion in order to advance the regional coordination development of Jiangsu Province. In the end, the paper points out some questions need to think about and further study in following studies on related issues. KEY WORDS: dis
16、parities of economic growth; factors; convergence; condition convergence; convergence path 学位论文独创性声明 学位论文独创性声明 本论文是本人在导师的指导下经认真研究所取得的成果。 论文中除了已经加 以标注和致谢的地方外，不包含其他人或其它机构已经发表或撰写过的研究成 果。其他个人或集体对本研究的启发和所做的贡献，均已在文中作了明确的声明 并表示了谢意。 作者签名： 日期： 学位论文使用授权声明 学位论文使用授权声明 本人完全了解南京财经大学有关保留、使用学位论文的规定，即：学校有权 保留送交论文的复印件，允许论文被查阅和借阅；学校可以公布论文的全部或部 分内容，可以采用影印、缩印或其它复制手段保存论文。保密的论文在解密后遵 守此规定。 作者签名： 导师签名： 日期： 南京财经大学硕士学位论文 1 第 1 章 导 言 第 1 章 导 言 1.1 选题背景及意义 选题背景及意义 改革开放以来，江苏省响应党的以经济建设为
