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1、 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. This document is Cisco Public. Page 1 of 14 White Paper Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast and Methodology, 20152020 June 6, 2016 This forecast is part of the Cisco Visual Networking Index (Cisco VNI), an ongoing initiative to track and fo
2、recast the impact of visual networking applications. This document presents the details of the Cisco VNI global IP traffic forecast and the methodology behind it. For a more analytical look at the implications of the data presented in this paper, refer to the companion document, The Zettabyte EraTre
3、nds and Analysis, or the VNI Forecast Highlights tool. Executive Summary Annual global IP traffic will surpass the zettabyte (ZB; 1000 exabytes EB) threshold in 2016, and will reach 2.3 ZB by 2020. Global IP traffic will reach 1.1 ZB per year or 88.7 EB (one billion gigabytes GB) per month in 2016.
4、By 2020, global IP traffic will reach 2.3 ZB per year, or 194 EB per month. Global IP traffic will increase nearly threefold over the next 5 years, and will have increased nearly 100-fold from 2005 to 2020. Overall, IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22 percent from 2015
5、 to 2020. Busy-hour Internet traffic is growing more rapidly than average Internet traffic. Busy-hour (or the busiest 60-minute period in a day) Internet traffic increased 51 percent in 2015, compared with 29-percent growth in average traffic. Busy-hour Internet traffic will increase by a factor of
6、4.6 between 2015 and 2020, while average Internet traffic will increase twofold. 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. This document is Cisco Public. Page 2 of 14 Smartphone traffic will exceed PC traffic by 2020. In 2015, PCs accounted for 53 percent of total IP traffic, but by 202
7、0 PCs will account for only 29 percent of traffic. Smartphones will account for 30 percent of total IP traffic in 2020, up from 8 percent in 2015. PC-originated traffic will grow at a CAGR of 8 percent, while TVs, tablets, smartphones, and machine-to-machine (M2M) modules will have traffic growth ra
8、tes of 17 percent, 39 percent, 58 percent, and 44 percent, respectively. Traffic from wireless and mobile devices will account for two-thirds of total IP traffic by 2020. By 2020, wired devices will account for 34 percent of IP traffic, while Wi-Fi and mobile devices will account for 66 percent of I
9、P traffic. In 2015, wired devices accounted for the majority of IP traffic at 52 percent. Global Internet traffic in 2020 will be equivalent to 95 times the volume of the entire global Internet in 2005. Globally, Internet traffic will reach 21 GB per capita by 2020, up from 7 GB per capita in 2015.
10、The number of devices connected to IP networks will be three times as high as the global population in 2020. There will be 3.4 networked devices per capita by 2020, up from 2.2 networked devices per capita in 2015. Accelerated in part by the increase in devices and the capabilities of those devices,
11、 IP traffic per capita will reach 25 GB per capita by 2020, up from 10 GB per capita in 2015. Broadband speeds will nearly double by 2020. By 2020, global fixed broadband speeds will reach 47.7 Mbps, up from 24.7 Mbps in 2015. Video Highlights It would take an individual more than 5 million years to
12、 watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks each month in 2020. Every second, nearly a million minutes of video content will cross the network by 2020. Globally, IP video traffic will be 82 percent of all consumer Internet traffic by 2020, up from 70 percent in 2015. Global IP vide
13、o traffic will grow threefold from 2015 to 2020, a CAGR of 26 percent. Internet video traffic will grow fourfold from 2015 to 2020, a CAGR of 31 percent. Internet video surveillance traffic nearly doubled in 2015, from 272 petabytes (PB) per month at the end of 2014 to 516 PB per month in 2015. Inte
14、rnet video surveillance traffic will increase tenfold between 2015 and 2020. Globally, 3.9 percent of all Internet video traffic will be due to video surveillance in 2020, up from 1.5 percent in 2015. Virtual reality traffic quadrupled in 2015, from 4.2 PB per month in 2014 to 17.9 PB per month in 2
15、015. Globally, virtual reality traffic will increase 61-fold between 2015 and 2020, a CAGR of 127 percent. Internet video to TV grew 50 percent in 2015. Internet video to TV will continue to grow at a rapid pace, increasing 3.6-fold by 2020. Internet video-to-TV traffic will be 26 percent of consume
16、r Internet video traffic by 2020, up from 24 percent in 2015. Consumer VoD traffic will nearly double by 2020. Ultra-high-definition (UHD) will be 20.7 percent of IP video-on- demand (VoD) traffic in 2020, up from 1.6 percent in 2015. Content delivery network (CDN) traffic will carry nearly two-thirds of all internet video traffic by 2020. By 2020, 64 percent of all Internet video traffic will cross CDNs, up from 45 percent in 2015. 2016 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights re
