高盛中国石油估价模型(excel)

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1、Rmb deval2002E2002EChange (%)Rmb/USD83.309.1310Income from Operations (EBIT)Exploration & Production46,831.85553,180.11313.555Refining & Marketing3,860.8715,917.71653.274Chemicals4,034.9114,556.86412.936Natural gas-66.141-66.1410Other-2,900-2,9000Total51,761.49760,688.55217.247Financing cost

2、sNet exchange gain/(loss)0-3,387.520Interest income186.26162.5920Interest expense-4,611.79-4,796.2624Total-4,425.531-8,021.1981.248Income from equity affiliates2002000Pretax income47,535.96652,867.36211.215Income taxes-15,686.869-18,512.07418.01Income before minority interests31,849.09734,355.2887.8

3、69(Income)/loss applicable tominority interests-20-200Net Income31,829.09734,335.2887.874Cash flow75,764.47181,277.8617.277EBITDA83,454.49792,381.55210.697EBIDA78,729.57773,869.478-6.173Paul D. Bernard:from 2000 onwards roughly flat 2075, with difference being made up by depreciation.shumin: assumin

4、g 40% foreign debt, 60% rmb debtearnings break-up1999E2000Echange2001Echange2002Echange2003Echange2004EchangePetroChinaEBIT41,253.43659,947.89618,694.46148,389.882-11,558.01451,761.4973,371.61552,840.3211,078.82452,185.587-654.734Total17,758.763-11,543.1693,430.838883.456-785.682Difference935.698-14

5、.845-59.223195.368130.948E&P48,459.02860,837.24312,378.21545,785.785-15,051.45946,831.8551,046.07147,150.723318.86846,779.157-371.567VolumeCrude (m bbl)743.242730.681-12.561703.07-27.611694.078-8.993684.491-9.587678.667-5.824Natural Gas (bcf)399459605448568113781513488368Total (m BOE)809.742807.

6、181-2.561793.737-13.444807.57813.841820.32412.747825.8345.51Earnings impact-815.962-2,893.661970.298843.988298.596PriceCrude16.74718.51.75316-2.5160160160Natural Gas1.8671.9080.041.904-0.0041.90401.899-0.0041.8990Earnings impact10,784.943-14,607.8620-28.6970CostsLifting-4.787-4.7030.084-4.3810.322-4

7、.1560.225-4.0390.116-4.0090.031DD&A-2.019-2.175-0.156-2.296-0.121-2.375-0.079-2.444-0.069-2.498-0.054Others-2.276-1.8730.403-1.850.023-1.8390.011-1.8290.01-1.848-0.019Total unit cost-9.082-8.7510.331-8.5270.224-8.370.157-8.3130.057-8.355-0.042Earnings impact2,409.2342,450.06475.773-496.423-670.1

8、63Total12,378.215-15,051.4591,046.071318.868-371.567Difference-00-00-01999E2000Echange2001Echange2002Echange2003Echange2004EchangeR&MEBIT-2,071.0241,342.6513,413.6752,462.1571,119.5063,860.8711,398.7144,711.221850.3495,584.103872.883Refining-751.924515.4611,267.384803.987288.5271,111.802307.8141

9、,510.669398.8672,145.7468635.077Volume67,202.43370,2153,012.56772,0361,82173,7101,67475,1501,44077,4302,280Earnings impact810.159513.726470.202401.826636.224Refining margins (US$/bbl)4.3854.60.2154.58-0.024.55-0.034.5504.550Earnings impact925.832-88.357-135.61600Processing costs (Rmb/tonne)147.40414

10、4.28-3.125140.859-3.421136.998-3.861133.246-3.752129.599-3.647Earnings impact-224.676-16.31548.77984.704-21.426SG&A (Rmb/tonne)52.87849.597-3.28146.893-2.70444.682-2.21142.73-1.95240.435-2.295Earnings impact0-3.0380.2390.30DD&A5,3655,680-3155,905-2256,065-1606,235-1706,295-60Total1,196.31418

11、1.016223.604316.829554.797Difference71.07107.5184.2182.03880.279Marketing-1,534.1553.7272,087.8271,353.175799.4492,423.1751,0702,834.375411.23,028.504194.129Volume (m)43.644.81.246.11.347.31.248.61.350.41.8Earnings impact225.1272.074284.402327.471466.808Avg. marketing margins135.915187.58351.668209.

12、28821.705237.00227.714251.90114.899259.3387.437Earnings impact2,314.7281,000.591,310.854724.098374.818Avg. operating costs158.486162.2773.791164.7512.474167.6962.945172.845.144176.7683.929Earnings impact-360-325-337-468-509.11DD&A550580-30700-120855-1551,008-1531,133-125Total2,149.828827.6651,10

13、3.256430.569207.516Difference-62.002-28.216-33.256-19.369-13.386Pipeline215273.46458.464304.99531.531325.89520.9366.17740.282409.85343.676Total3,404.6071,040.2121,347.761787.68805.99Difference9.06879.29450.95462.66966.8931999E2000Echange2001Echange2002Echange2003Echange2004EchangeNatural Gas-435.235-411.01124.224-51.36359.651-66.141-14.781369.425435.566559.719190.294Volume35

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