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1、HOLT%upside6040ImperialTiger Brands30 January 2013EEMEA/South AfricaEquity ResearchInvestment StrategyEEMEA Equity StrategyResearch AnalystsAlexander Redman44 20 7883 6896alex.redmancredit-Arun Sai44 20 7883 0002arun.saicredit-STRATEGYSouth Africa consumer versus resources:Has the trade reached its
2、conclusion?Figure 1: South African resources and consumer sectors HOLT upside versusmarket implied five-year forward CFROI less five-year median delivered CFROI100HOLT warrantedGoldMarket implied FY5 CFROI less 5-year delivered median CFROIupside with un-80 demanding marketimplied CFROIFields Aquari
3、usPlatinumSasolLewis GroupAnglogold Ashanti-4ResourcesAnglo AmericanRichemont-25Consumer20BHPSteinhoffJD GroupFoschini0-20NaspersExxaroPioneer FoodImpala Platinum ShopriteSpar Group BAT TruworthsAnglo AmericanPlatinumAVIOceanaSABmillerMr. PriceWoolworths-40-60MassmartPick N PayHOLT warranted downsid
4、e withdemanding market implied CFROI-8-6-4-202468101214Source: Credit Suisse HOLT, Credit Suisse research We believe the two key current issues for investors in South African equitiesare firstly, if the rand has further to weaken, and secondly, whether the long-running consumer versus resources trad
5、e has finally reached its conclusion. Consumer relative to resources in South Africa has been one of the longest-running successful sector pair trades within the emerging EMEA region inrecent years, yielding 378% of relative price performance since the summerof 2008. However, this pair trade has giv
6、en back 3ppt of performance infavour of resources year to date. We believe the trade continues to unwind. We set out seven reasons which support a continued reversal of this trade:(i) emerging market cyclicals appear ripe for a bounce relative to defensives;(ii) the Chinese growth reacceleration is
7、supportive for net commodityexporters; (iii) the strength of South African consumer fundamentals hasdeteriorated; (iv) the market is implying very demanding growth expectationsfor the SA consumer sector; (v) relative valuations for the SA consumerversus resources appear very stretched; (vi) consumer
8、 sector earnings areshowing signs of disappointing; and (vii) resource names appear attractivelypositioned relative to consumers on Credit Suisse HOLT metrics. Within the resource space our top picks include AngloGold Ashanti, ExxaroResources and Lonmin. We continue to recommend only selected SAcons
9、umer plays: Steinhoff, Foschini Group, Pick n Pay and Lewis Group.DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON US ANALYSTS. FOROTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, visit www.credit- or call +1 (877) 291-2683 USDisclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companie
10、s covered in its research reports. As a result,investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investorsshould consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH
11、& ANALYTICSBEYOND INFORMATIONClient-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access230 January 2013SA consumer versus resources: Hasthe trade reached its conclusion?We believe the two key issues for investors in South African equities to tackle in early2013 are firstly, if the rand has further to weaken, and
12、 secondly, whether the long-runningconsumer versus resources trade has finally reached its conclusion.For the first issue, calling the rand correctly is critical for three key reasons: (i) the randcontributes more to changes in dollar total return than the equity market; (ii) randmovements dictate s
13、ector selection within a South African equities portfolio; and (iii) thecurrency is reflected (strength for strength) in domestic consumer sentiment. We set outour case for continued vulnerability for the South African currency in our 2013 EmergingEMEA Equities Outlook, dated 13 December 2012.For th
14、e second issue we note that the South African consumer relative to resources hasbeen one of the longest-running successful sector pair trades within the emerging EMEAregion in recent years, yielding 378% of relative price performance since the onset of theglobal financial crisis in the summer of 200
15、8. This has proved the most profitableconsumer relative to resources pair trade in any of the larger emerging markets over theduration.However, year to date this pair trade has given back 3ppt in relative performance in favourof resources.We set out seven reasons which support a continued reversal o
16、f this trade:1. Emerging market cyclicals appear ripe for a bounce relative to defensives2. The Chinese growth reacceleration is supportive for net commodity exporters3. The strength of South African consumer fundamentals has deteriorated4. Market implying very demanding growth expectations for the
17、SA consumer sector5. Relative valuations for the SA consumer versus resources appear very stretched6. Consumer sector earnings are showing signs of disappointing7. Resource names appear attractively positioned relative to consumers on HOLTFigure 2: Market relative performance of larger SouthAfrican
18、sectors260Figure 3: Consumer* relative to Resources US$ indexperformance for the relevant major emerging markets240220200Cons DiscretionCons Staples500400S AfricaBrazil180160300India140120100FinancialsTelcoms200ChileS KoreaMexico8060Other IndustrialsEnergy100RussiaChina40Jul 08Jul 09Jul 10Jul 11Jul
19、12Materials0Jul 08Jul 09Jul 10Jul 11Jul 12Source: MSCI, Credit Suisse researchNote: * Staples and Discretionary. Materials and EnergySource: MSCI, Credit Suisse researchEEMEA Equity StrategyCreditSuisseestimates8.020-2.5330 January 20131. Emerging market cyclicals appear ripe for a bounce relative t
20、o defensivesGiven our view that 1.4% in late July 2012 did mark the record low in US 10-year treasuryyields, it appears that the trade for defensives outperformance relative to the MSCIemerging markets benchmark is therefore looking stretched (Credit Suisse forecastsaverage 1Q13 UST yields of 2.25%
21、versus the current 1.95%). Furthermore, cyclicalsremain close to the ex-global financial crisis record price book discount of 23% (theDecember 2008 trough discount was 30%).Figure 4: Emerging market defensives relativeperformance versus US 10-year treasury yieldFigure 5: Emerging market cyclicals re
22、lative to defensivesperformance versus price to book (+/-1s.d.)2000.01201.80180R-squared = 0.761.31101.651001.501602.7901.351401201004.05.36.7807060501.201.050.900.7580Jan 95Jan 98 Jan 01 Jan 04 Jan 07 Jan 10 Jan 13MSCI EMF Defensives/EMF (US$, rebased to 100 on 1/1/95)40Jan 96Jan 99 Jan 02 Jan 05 J
23、an 08 Jan 11MSCI EMF Cyclicals/Defensives (US$, LHS)0.60Jan 14US 10Y bond yield (%, inverted, RHS)Defensives: Consumer Staples, Healthcare, UtilitiesSource: MSCI, Credit Suisse researchMSCI EMF Cyclicals/Defensives PBR (x, RHS)Cyclicals: Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, IT, Materials.Defensives:
24、 Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Utilities.Source: MSCI, Credit Suisse researchMoreover, a recovery to trend (circa 5%) global IP growth on Credit Suisse estimates isconsistent with a recovery in cyclicals relative performance versus defensives and risingglobal excess liquidity is supportive of materi
25、als forward earnings multiple expansion.Figure 6: Global industrial production growth versusemerging markets cyclicals relative to defensives year-on-year performanceFigure 7: Global excess liquidity* versus emergingmarkets materials relative to market PE ratio110EM cyclicals rel defensives, yoy %12
26、.518200Global IP yoy %, rhs1518010010.0121609080706050Jan 97 Jan 99 Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 137.55.02.50.09630-3-6-9Jan 96Global excess liquidity (%, pushed forward 10m)EMF materials relative to market PE ratio (%, rhs)Jan 99 Jan 02 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 11 Jan 14140120100806040Cyc
27、licals: Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, IT, Materials.Defensives: Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Utilities.Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimatesEEMEA Equity Strategy*Note: excess liquidity defined by narrow money supply growth lessnominal industrial production growthSource: MSCI
28、, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse researchCreditSuisseforecast68430 January 20132. The Chinese growth reacceleration is supportive for net commodity exportersThe recovery in Chinese electricity generation growth and continued uptick in the latestDecember manufacturing PMI Output survey are both indic
29、ative of a mild reacceleration inChinese GDP. Credit Suisse is forecasting 2013E and 2014E GDP growth in China of8.0% and 8.2%, respectively, following 7.7% in 2012.Figure 8: China electricity production versus GDP growthChina real GDP growth (LHS)Figure 9: China manufacturing PMI output versus GDPg
30、rowthChina real GDP growth (LHS)16%14%12%10%8%6%China electricity production, yoy %, 3mma33%26%20%13%6%0%16%14%12%10%8%6%China manufacturing PMI: Output (3m lead)63585348434%Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-7%4%Jan Jan05 06Jan07J
31、an Jan08 09Jan10Jan Jan11 12Jan13Jan Jan14 1538Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Oxford Economics, CreditSource: Markit Economics, Credit Suisse estimatesSuisse researchThe reacceleration in Chinese fixed asset investment new projects started over the pasttwelve months to 37% year-on-year is co
32、nsistent with a pick up and subsequentstabilisation in monthly new society wide financing to a level averaging RMB1.3trn over thepast ten months. Momentum in EMEA metals and mining relative performance versusregional equities has turned positive and we think has much further to run beforerecoupling
33、with its eight year historical association with Chinese commercial propertytransactions which are now at their highest year-on-year growth rate since October 2011.Figure 10: China fixed asset investment new projectsstarted versus society wide financing (3-month movingaverage)Figure 11: China commerc
34、ial property transactionsversus MSCI EMEA Metals & Mining relative to MSCIEMEA100806040200-2024002000160012008004000100806040200-20-40544230186-6-18-30-40-400Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13China society wide financ
35、ing (RMB bn, 3mma, RHS)Fixed inv: projects started (yoy%chg 3mma, lagged by 3m, LHS)Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Peoples Bank ofChina, Credit Suisse researchEEMEA Equity StrategyChina: Commercial property transactions (msq floor space, yoy %chg, 3mma, pushed forward 2 months, LHS)
36、MSCI EMEA Metals & Mining / MSCI EMEA (US$, yoy % chg, RHS)Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, MSCI, Credit Suisseresearch530 January 2013Chinese steel production year-on-year growth (now the strongest since September 2011)has risen in conjunction with residential real estate new developmen
37、t floor space sold.Also supportive of emerging markets metals and mining sector relative performance is theCredit Suisse forecast for stability in Chinese house pricesup by 5% in 1H2013 in thelarge cities (see China Property Sector: Sales momentum versus housing price risk,Jinsong Du, 21 January 201
38、3).Figure 12: China: residential new floor space sold versussteel productionFigure 13: Real China house prices versus MSCI EMFmetals & mining relative to MSCI EMF60%50%40%30%20%10%0%China real estate dev. floor space sold (12mmav, yoy % chg)China steel production (yoy % chg)1221201181161141121101081
39、06188180172164156148140132124-10%104102China: House prices (real, indexrebased, LHS)MSCI EMF Metals & Mining /116108-20%Jan02Jan03Jan04Jan05Jan06Jan07Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Jan12Jan13MSCI EMF (US$, rebased, RHS)100Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12100Source: China National Bureau o
40、f Statistics, World Steel Association,Credit Suisse researchSource: China National Bureau of Statistics, MSCI, Credit SuisseresearchSupportive of the energy space within resources are Chinese crude oil imports at5.6mmbbl/day (as of December) running above the long-run trend and close to the recordhi
41、gh. China now accounts for the single largest share of global oil demand growthof the0.60mmbbl/day additional global oil demand in 2011, China accounted for 0.51mmbbl/dayin demand growth.However, the above supports have yet to be reflected in any material boost to SouthAfrican mining volumes which h
42、ave been dampened by industrial action throughout 2012.Figure 14: China crude oil imports (3mma) versus Brentspot crude oil priceFigure 15: South Africa mining production versus US ISMmanufacturing9China crude oil imports (mmbbl/day, 3mav., LHS)1621265Brent crude oil price (US$/bbl, RHS)8Linear (Chi
43、na oil imports (mmbbl/day, 3mav., LHS)1448607126654310890725440-4-85550454021036180-12-16SA mining production (volindex, 3mma yoy%chg)US ISM manufacturing3530Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, Thomson Reuters, CreditSuisse resea
44、rchEEMEA Equity StrategyJan 92 Jan 95 Jan 98 Jan 01 Jan 04 Jan 07 Jan 10 Jan 13Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates70206696630 January 20133. The strength of South African consumer fundamentals has deterioratedThe following ten key issues have eroded the consumer outlook in South Africa:(i)
45、 The PMI manufacturing output survey is indicating a somewhat worrisome profile formomentum of overall South African economic activity: a level of 45.5 (the three monthmoving averagesmoothed owing to the volatile series) is consistent with GDP growth ofjust 1% versus the Credit Suisse forecast for 2
46、013E of 3.1%. On 24 January the SouthAfrican Reserve Bank lowered their 2013E GDP growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.9%.Similarly, the latest December headline manufacturing PMI survey is consistent with year-on-year industrial production growth in negative territory, i.e. closer to -3% than theNovember
47、 reported +3%.Figure 16: South Africa real GDP yoy versusmanufacturing PMI output indexFigure 17: South Africa industrial production versusmanufacturing PMISouth Africa manufacturing PMI output Index (3mma)South Africa real GDP, yoy % chg (RHS)9%South Africa industrial production (yoy % chg, LHS)Sou
48、th Africa Manufacturing PMI (RHS)65605550454035307%6%4%3%1%-1%-2%-4%151050-5-10-15-20Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan6258545046423834Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14Source: Markit, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse research99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
49、 08 09 10 11 12 13 14Source: Markit, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse research(ii) According to the quarterly IFO World Economic Survey, South African lack ofconfidence in their governments economic policy has deteriorated steadily since the latteryears of the Mbeki administration, now reaching the lo
50、west point since de Klerk.Figure 18: IFO World Economic Survey South Africa: Lack of confidence in governmenteconomic policyLow confidence87South Africa: Lack of confidencein government economic policy5432de KlerkMandelaMbekiZuma1High confidence0Jan 91Jan 94Jan 97Jan 00Jan 03Jan 06Jan 09Jan 12Source
51、: IFO World Economic Survey, Credit Suisse research(iii) The official unemployment rate remains stubbornly high at 25.5%. Furthermore, theBureau for Economic Research/OECD business tendency surveys for future employmentEEMEA Equity Strategy7654730 January 2013in the manufacturing and construction in
52、dustries have trended further into negativeterritory over the past two quarters; the outlook for the retail trade sector alone remainspositive (as of 4Q2012).Figure 19: South Africa unemployment rate26Figure 20: SA business tendency survey: futureemployment (retail trade, manufacturing, construction
53、and composite)40302520242322100-10-20-30Retail TradeCompositeManufacturingConstruction2120Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q32008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012Source: Statistics South Africa, Credit Suisse research-40-50-60Jan 98 Jan 01 Jan 04 Jan 07 Jan 10 Jan 13Source: Bureau for Economic
54、 Research, Credit Suisse research(iv) The rate of growth in per capita real disposable income for South Africa has continuedto slow to 2.8% from 4.6% a year ago.(v) Moreover, we believe it is unlikely that discretionary consumption will benefit from anyfurther decline in the household debt financing
55、 cost to income ratio. In our view the 50bpsSARB rate cut on 20 July 2012 (which lowered the household debt financing cost toincome ratio to 6.5%, a 25-year low) was the final step in easing policy and our SouthAfrican economist, Carlos Teixeira, forecasts the next move is tightening by 100bps in201
56、4. On 24 January the monetary policy committee reiterated that the risks to inflationwere on the upside and revised their average headline CPI inflation forecast for 2013Ehigher to 5.8% (towards the upper end of the inflation target band) from 5.5% previously.Figure 21: SA: real disposable income gr
57、owth (rand, %)Figure 22: South Africa: household savings ratio versushousehold debt financing cost to income ratio (%)3,2503,0002,7502,5002,2502,0001,7501,5001,2501,0007505002500Average monthly disposable income(per capita, rand, nominal, LHS)Per capita real disposable incomegrowth (yoy % chg, RHS)1
58、4121086420-2-4-6-83210-1-2South Africa: Householdsavings ratio (%, LHS)South Africa: Householddebt financing cost toincome ratio (%, RHS)1514131211109876Jan 90 Jan 93 Jan 96 Jan 99 Jan 02 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 11Source: Statistics South Africa, Credit Suisse researchEEMEA Equity StrategyJan 90 Jan 93 Ja
59、n 96 Jan 99 Jan 02 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 11Source: Statistics South Africa, Credit Suisse research830 January 2013(vi) Patterns in rand strength and weakness (we use the real effective exchange rate) aregenerally reflected in the consumer mood in South Africaour view on the EEMEA EquityStrategy team is
60、for prolonged rand weakness (see our 2013 Emerging EMEA EquitiesOutlook, dated 13 December 2012). A lower consumer confidence survey in turn suggestsmore modest year-on-year performance for the staples and discretionary sectors.Figure 23: South Africa REER versus consumerconfidenceFigure 24: South A
61、frica consumer staples anddiscretionary performance versus consumer confidence110100908070601031021011009998150%125%100%75%50%25%0%-25%-50%103.8103.0102.3101.5100.8100.099.398.597.850South Africa REER (LHS)97-75%Jan 96Jan 99 Jan 02 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 1197.0South Africa Consumer Confidence (RHS)SA con
62、sumer staples (yoy % chg, LHS)4096SA consumer discretionary (yoy % chg, LHS)Jan 95Jan 98Jan 01Jan 04Jan 07Jan 10Jan 13SA Consumer Confidence (RHS)Source: OECD, Credit Suisse Global Strategy researchSource: MSCI, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse research(vii) The South African household net wealth to d
63、isposable income ratio has fallen back tolevels equivalent to the trough during the global financial crisis in 2Q2009 and before thatin 4Q2005.(viii) Impaired credit records as measured by the National Credit Regulator remainstubbornly high at 47%not best positioned for a credit-led recovery in cons
64、umption.Figure 25: South Africa household net wealth todisposable income (%)Figure 26: South Africa: Consumers with impaired creditrecords3603409.59.0Impaired records (m, LHS)Impaired records (%, RHS)5048South Africa household net320300280260wealth to disposable income (%)8.58.07.57.06.5464442403824
65、0Jan 91 Jan 94 Jan 97 Jan 00 Jan 03 Jan 06 Jan 09 Jan 126.0Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 1236Source: South African Reserve Bank, Credit Suisse researchImpaired record: A record on which any of the accounts are eitherclassified as three or more payments in a
66、rrears, or has an “adverselisting”, or that reflects a judgment or administration order.Adverse listing: Accounts with adverse classifications such as slowpaying, absconded, default, handed over and/or write-off.Source: National Credit Regulator, Credit Suisse researchEEMEA Equity StrategyPolandThai
67、landTaiwanKoreaIndiaChileUAEMalaysiaIndonesiaS.ArabiaHungaryRussiaCzechChinaS.AfricaMexicoBrazilTurkeyIsraelKazakh.4015930 January 2013(ix) Real private sector credit growth for South Africa has recovered to 4.6% year-on-year(10.1% in nominal terms), the highest level since 4Q2008 although on our Cr
68、edit Suisseemerging market banks sector analysts forecasts, South Africa will deliver close to thelowest credit growth in emerging markets in 2013 of just 0.4% in real terms, with onlyHungary forecast to deliver a weaker outturn.Figure 27: South Africa household debt/disposableincome versus non-fina
69、ncial sector loan and depositgrowth and loans to GDP (%)Figure 28: Emerging market real private sector creditgrowth: current versus 2013 forecast and post-2000 range(lc, yoy % chg)2520151050-5-10Jan 93Jan 96 Jan 99 Jan 02 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 11Real deposit growth (excl. banks, ZAR, yoy%)Real loan grow
70、th (non-financial sector, ZAR, yoy%)Household debt to disposable income ratio (RHS, %)Loans/GDP (RHS, %)9084787266605448100806040200-20Current2013E ForecastSource: South Africa Reserve Bank, Credit Suisse researchSource: Central bank data, Credit Suisse estimates(x) Finally, year-on-year house price
71、 appreciation in South Africa has, on average,remained negative in real terms since January 2008 with the exception of the first eightmonths of 2010.In our view the above ten issues contributed to the decline in year-on-year growth in realretail sales by October 2012 to just 1.2% (November saw a sli
72、ght bounce to 2.7%) versusthe last ten years average of 5.5%, and will continue to constrain the outlook for retailsales growth through 2013.Figure 29: South Africa ABSA house price indexABSA house price index - All houses(yoy % chg, real terms)30Figure 30: South Africa real retail salesSA real reta
73、il sales (yoy % chg)102051000-10-20-30Jan 68 Jan 73 Jan 78 Jan 83 Jan 88 Jan 93 Jan 98 Jan 03 Jan 08 Jan 13Source: ABSA, Credit Suisse researchEEMEA Equity Strategy-5-10-15Jan 80 Jan 84 Jan 88 Jan 92 Jan 96 Jan 00 Jan 04 Jan 08 Jan 12Source: Statistics South Africa, Credit Suisse researchMSCI-5%30 J
74、anuary 20134. Market implying very demanding growth expectations for the SA consumer sectorWe have modelled time series for market implied medium-term (3-5 year) EPS growth forSouth African sectors using our three-stage dividend discount model methodology, i.e. forjust beyond the immediate time hori
75、zon of sell-side analyst EPS growth estimates whichtypically extend for no more than 24 months forward.We are then able to contrast the long-run delivered EPS CAGR and short-term (up to 24-month) consensus expectations (which should already be broadly priced into equities) withthe implied market exp
76、ectations for each sector over the medium term.Figure 31: South Africa & GEM sector delivered versus forecast EPS growth (12-24 month forward and 3-5 year implied)MSCISouth AfricaGEMS. Africa Delivered 12m-24m ST3-5Y MT implied EPSDelivered 12m-24m ST 3-5Y MT implied EPSweightLT EPS EPS growth:growt
77、h:LT EPS EPS growth:growth:Sector(%) CAGR (%)latest (%) latest (%) LT average (%) CAGR (%)latest (%) latest (%) LT average (%)FinancialsResourcesIndustrials ex ConsCons DiscretionaryCons Staples26.7%26.4%21.8%17.6%7.6%9.112.515.716.415.413.310.210.719.218.010.75.913.718.223.85.68.58.09.811.713.414.5
78、4.811.89.511.35.811.314.016.06.14.713.08.223.59.65.611.410.315.8Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesIn line with intuition, we find the most depressed medium-term market implied EPS growth(MTIG) outlook is for the resource space at 5.9% versus a 12-24m consensus growthforecast of 10.2% and
79、a delivered 17-year EPS CAGR of 12.5%. This appears consistentwith the outlook for GEM resources with the exception of 12-24m consensus estimateswhich are more robust for South Africa: 10.2% versus 5.8% for the GEM sector. From2005 through 2007 the materials sector underwent a period of sustained ma
80、rket-impliedmedium-term growth expectations close to or inline with what sell-side analysts wereforecasting over the shorter 12 to 24 month forward time horizon, coinciding with threeyears of double-digit urbanisation and WTO ascension related GDP growth in China.However, the current South African r
81、esources sector MTIG of 5.9% is at a significantdiscount to the 8.5% long-run average, i.e. the sector appears to be currently priced by themarket for very modest growth expectations versus history, even accounting for the rate ofChinese urbanisation having crossed the 50% threshold earlier this yea
82、r and Chinasettling at around 8% GDP growth for 2012E-14E on Credit Suisse forecasts.Figure 32: South Africa resources delivered 17-year EPSCAGR (% log scale, ZAR terms)Figure 33: SA resources short-term (12-24m) consensusvs medium term (3-5y) market-implied EPS growth rate4.57.040%4.017.1 year CAGR
83、 12.5%6.535%30%3.53.02.56.05.55.025%20%15%10%12-24m2.01.54.54.05%0%3-5y imp.Jan 96Jan 99Jan 02Jan 05Jan 08Jan 11MSCI SA Resources eps (log scale, +/-1 sd, US$, LHS)MSCI SA Resources index (log scale, US$, RHS)Source: MSCI, I/B/E/S, Credit Suisse researchEEMEA Equity StrategyJan 96 Jan 99 Jan 02 Jan
84、05 Jan 08 Jan 11Source: MSCI, I/B/E/S, Credit Suisse research10-5%-5%30 January 2013The market is pricing in a record high (since 1996) medium-term implied EPS growth ratefor South African consumer staples of 23.8% versus long-run average expectations(11.7%), versus the shorter-term 12-24 month cons
85、ensus EPS growth forecast (18.0%)and versus what has been delivered over the past 17 years (EPS CAGR of 15.4%). Thisappears overly demanding, in our view. However, we note that growth expectations for theGEM consumer staples sector are equally elevated with an EPS MTIG of 23.5% versusthe long-term a
86、verage 15.8%.Figure 34: South Africa consumer staples delivered17-year EPS CAGR (% log scale, ZAR terms)Figure 35: SA consumer staples short-term (12-24m)consensus versus medium term (3-5y) market-impliedEPS growth rate (%, ZAR terms)9.517.1 year CAGR 15.4%7.525%3-5y imp.9.08.58.07.57.06.56.07.06.56
87、.05.55.04.54.020%15%10%5%0%12-24mJan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12MSCI SA Cons Staples eps (log scale, +/- 1 s.d. band, LHS)MSCI SA Cons Staples index (log scale, RHS)Source: MSCI, I/B/E/S, Credit Suisse researchJan 96 Jan 99 Jan 02 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 11Source: MSCI, I/B/
88、E/S, Credit Suisse researchFor the first time in 15 years, the market is pricing in a medium-term EPS implied growthrate for South Africa consumer discretionary equivalent to that of consensus estimates forthe next 12-24 month period of 18%. However, sustaining this growth rate appearsoptimistic giv
89、en that the 17-year EPS CAGR for the sector is a more modest 16%.Furthermore, the South Africa sector EPS MTIG appears high relative to the GEM sectoron a less demanding 8.2% versus its respective long-run delivered EPS CAGR of 11.8%.Figure 36: South Africa consumer discretionary delivered17-year EP
90、S CAGR (% log scale, ZAR terms)Figure 37: SA consumer discretionary short-term(12-24m) consensus versus medium term (3-5y)market-implied EPS growth rate (%, ZAR terms)10.09.59.08.517.1 year CAGR 16.4%8.07.57.06.540%35%30%25%8.06.020%12-24m7.57.06.56.05.5Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan
91、08 Jan 10 Jan 12MSCI SA Cons Disc eps (log scale, +/- 1 s.d. band, LHS)MSCI SA Cons Disc index (log scale, RHS)Source: MSCI, I/B/E/S, Credit Suisse researchEEMEA Equity Strategy5.55.04.54.03.515%10%5%0%Jan 96 Jan 99 Jan 02 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 11Source: MSCI, I/B/E/S, Credit Suisse research3-5y imp.113
92、0 January 2013We include the charts for financials and industrials (excluding consumer) as Appendix I.5. Relative valuations for the SA consumer versus resources appear very stretchedOn a number of valuation metrics the South African consumer space appears extremelyexpensive relative to resources ve
93、rsus a 16-year history. On I/B/E/S consensus 12-monthforward P/E both the staples and discretionary sectors appear more than one standarddeviation expensive to resources versus their long-run average relative valuation.Figure 38: South Africa consumer discretionary relative toresources 12m forward I
94、/B/E/S consensus P/E (x)2.2Consumer Discretionary Rel. Resources - 12m fwd PE (x)2.01.8Figure 39: South Africa consumer staples relative toresources 12m forward I/B/E/S consensus P/E (x)2.4Consumer Staples Rel. Resources - 12m fwd PE (x)2.22.01.81.61.61.41.41.21.21.00.80.6Jan 97 Jan 99 Jan 01 Jan 03
95、 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 13Source: MSCI, I/B/E/S, Credit Suisse research1.00.80.6Jan 97 Jan 99 Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 13Source: MSCI, I/B/E/S, Credit Suisse researchSimilarly, consumer discretionary is at an extreme price book multiple relative toresources2.5 times, or
96、 two standard deviations expensive versus the 16-year relativehistorical average.Dividend yield for the consumer staples sector is 30% lower than that for resources,equivalent to one standard deviation below the long-run historical relative average.Figure 40: South Africa consumer discretionary rela
97、tive toresources 12m trailing price to book (x)3.02.52.01.51.00.5Consumer Discretionary Rel. Resources - Price to Book (x)0.0Jan 97 Jan 99 Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 13Source: MSCI, Credit Suisse researchEEMEA Equity StrategyFigure 41: South Africa consumer staples relative toreso
98、urces 12m trailing dividend yield (x)1.61.41.21.00.80.6Consumer Staples Rel. Resources - Dividend Yield (%)0.4Jan 97 Jan 99 Jan 01 Jan 03 Jan 05 Jan 07 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 13Source: MSCI, Credit Suisse research1230 January 20136. Consumer sector earnings are showing signs of disappointingFrom feedback
99、 during our current roadshow we learnt that international (non-domestic SA)investors who have structurally overweighted the South African consumer sector for yearswould typically only seek to reduce exposure once the sectors (for the most part)immaculate multi-year track record of delivering stable
100、margins, high return on equity andearnings inline or superior to consensus expectations falters.Significantly, January trading statements by South African retailers point towards anoverall mixed performance. Massmart, Shoprite and Mr Price consecutively announceddisappointing seasonal sales volumes
101、versus market expectations, while higher-endretailers such as Woolworths and Truworths broadly traded stronger.However, Credit Suisse South Africa retail analyst Dean Ginsberg continues to expect topline growth above inflation, a continuation of the recent trend of margin expansion andhence earnings
102、 growth in excess of revenue growth for clothing and food producers. Also,despite the recent pull-back in real wages on the back of food inflation, which he expectsto dissipate, Dean notes that consumer credit continues to be granted, driving consumerspend further.In the view of our EEMEA telecoms a
103、nalyst Richard Barker, the main drivers of marginand returns progression of Naspers have little to do with South Africa, hence we haveexcluded the stock from our ROE and margin charts for the South African consumer(Figure 42 and Figure 43).Figure 42: South Africa* versus GEM consumer sectorROE (%)35
104、%South Africa*Figure 43: South Africa* versus GEM consumer sectorEBIT margin12%30%Emerging markets11%10%25%9%20%8%South Africa*15%10%7%6%Emerging marketsJan 03Jan 05Jan 07Jan 09Jan 11Jan 13Jan 03Jan 05Jan 07Jan 09Jan 11Jan 13*Note: excluding Naspers; discretionary and staplesSource: Thomson Reuters,
105、 Worldscope, Credit Suisse researchEEMEA Equity Strategy*Note: excluding Naspers; discretionary and staplesSource: Thomson Reuters, Worldscope, Credit Suisse research1330 January 2013Our analysis of earnings surprises shows a decline in the South African consumer staplesstandardised unexpected earni
106、ngs metric for FY2012 to the lowest level since 2007 andthat 75% of full year FY2012 earnings releases negatively surprised (more than 1% belowconsensus expectations).Figure 44: South Africa consumer staples: percentage of stocks with positive ornegative surprises for full year EPS relative to avera
107、ge analyst estimates (inline is +/- 1%of average forecast) versus average standardised unexpected earnings* (SUE)43210-1-2-3-4% negative surprises% inline% positive surprisesAverage SUE, lhs100%88%75%63%50%38%25%13%0%1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Note: Mas
108、smart, Pick n Pay, Shoprite, Spar, Tiger brands*Note: percentage of earnings surprise versus mean analyst estimate adjusted for standard deviation ofhistorical earnings surprisesSource: I/B/E/S, FactSet, Credit Suisse researchHowever, for the discretionary sector the track record of typically positi
109、ve to inline earningssurprises through FY2012 remained intact.Figure 45: South Africa consumer discretionary: percentage of stocks with positive ornegative surprises for full year EPS relative to average analyst estimates (inline is +/- 1%of average forecast) versus average standardised unexpected e
110、arnings* (SUE)43210-1-2-3-4% negative surprises% inline% positive surprisesAverage SUE, lhs100%88%75%63%50%38%25%13%0%1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Note: Imperial, Mr Price, Naspers, Steinhoff, Foschini, Truworths, Woolworths*Note: percentage of earnings s
111、urprise versus mean analyst estimate adjusted for standard deviation ofhistorical earnings surprisesSource: I/B/E/S, FactSet, Credit Suisse researchEEMEA Equity Strategy14HOLT%upside6040ImperialTiger Brands30 January 2013Finally, we note that earnings revisions for the resources and consumer discret
112、ionarysector relative to the market have both recently moved through inflexion points and havenow established contrasting positive and negative momentum, respectively.Figure 46: South Africa resources relative to marketearnings revisions breadth30%Resources Rel. Market - Earnings revisions breadth20
113、%10%0%-10%-20%-30%Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12Source: MSCI, I/B/E/S, Credit Suisse researchFigure 47: South Africa consumer discretionary relative tomarket earnings revisions breadth30%20%10%0%-10%-20%Consumer Discretionary Rel. Market - Earnings revisions breadth-3
114、0%Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12Source: MSCI, I/B/E/S, Credit Suisse research7. Resource names appear attractively positioned relative to consumers on HOLTOn our scatter chart of Credit Suisse HOLT upside to best warranted price versus marketimplied five-year forward
115、CFROI less the five-year median delivered CFROI for stockswithin the South African resources and consumer sectors, we find that most resourcenames are generally favourably positioned with potential upside and undemanding marketimplied CFROI expectations in contrast to the majority of consumer names.
116、Figure 48: South African resources and consumer sectors HOLT upside potential to bestwarranted price versus market implied five-year forward CFROI less five-year mediandelivered CFROI100HOLT warrantedGoldMarket implied FY5 CFROI less 5-year delivered median CFROIupside with un-80 demanding marketimp
117、lied CFROIFields AquariusPlatinumSasolLewis GroupAnglogold Ashanti-4ResourcesAnglo AmericanRichemont-25Consumer20BHPSteinhoffJD GroupFoschini0-20NaspersExxaroPioneer FoodImpala Platinum ShopriteSpar Group BAT TruworthsAnglo AmericanPlatinumAVIOceanaSABmillerMr. PriceWoolworths-40-60MassmartPick N Pa
118、yHOLT warranted downside withdemanding market implied CFROI-8-6-4-202468101214Source: Credit Suisse HOLT, Credit Suisse researchEEMEA Equity Strategy15-10%-10%30 January 2013Appendix I: Other SA sector MTIGMarket implied medium-term EPS growth for South African financials and industrials.Figure 49:
119、South Africa financials delivered 17-year EPSCAGR (% log scale, ZAR terms)Figure 50: SA financials short-term (12-24m) consensusversus medium term (3-5y) market-implied EPS growthrate (%, ZAR terms)8.46.235%8.17.87.517.1 year CAGR 9.1%5.95.65.330%25%20%7.26.96.66.36.0Jan 96 Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan
120、04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 125.04.74.44.13.815%10%5%0%-5%12-24m3-5y imp.MSCI SA Financials eps (log scale, +/- 1 s.d. band, LHS)MSCI SA Financials index (log scale, RHS)Source: MSCI, I/B/E/S, Credit Suisse researchFigure 51: South Africa industrials (excluding consumer)delivered 17-year EPS CAGR (%
121、 log scale, ZAR terms)Jan 96 Jan 99 Jan 02 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 11Source: MSCI, I/B/E/S, Credit Suisse researchFigure 52: SA industrials (excluding consumer) short-term (12-24m) consensus versus medium term (3-5y)market-implied EPS growth rate (%, ZAR terms)4.57.040%4.017.1 year CAGR 15.7%6.535%30%3.53
122、.06.05.525%20%2.52.05.04.515%10%3-5y imp.12-24m5%1.54.00%1.0Jan 96Jan 99Jan 02Jan 05Jan 08Jan 113.5-5%MSCI SA Industrials ex Cons eps (log scale, +/-1 sd, US$, LHS)MSCI SA Industrials ex Cons index (log scale, US$, RHS)Source: MSCI, I/B/E/S, Credit Suisse researchEEMEA Equity StrategyJan 96 Jan 99 J
123、an 02 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 11Source: MSCI, I/B/E/S, Credit Suisse research1630 January 2013Appendix II: Sector stock coverageWithin the resource space our top picks include AngloGold Ashanti, Exxaro and Lonmin.We continue to recommend only selected consumer plays: Steinhoff, Foschini Group,Pick n Pay a
124、nd Lewis Group.Figure 53: Credit Suisse South African resource and consumer sector stock coverage (top picks in bold)TickerCompanyMcap CurrentTarget Upside EPS growthP/EP/BDYCredit SuisseUS$pricepricetoRatingbntarget 2013E 2014E2013E2014E2013E2013EpriceResourcesBLT.LAAL.LSOLJ.JKIOJ.JAMSJ.JIMPJ.JANGJ
125、.JBHP BillitonAnglo AmericanSasol LimitedKumba Iron OreAnglo American PlatinumImpala Holdings LimitedAngloGold Ashanti194.4 p2,111.5 p2,400.041.1 p1,872.5 p2,100.027.4 R379.7 R339.021.0 R587.0 R410.012.8 R439.9 R390.011.2 R165.4 R165.010.6 R248.1 R389.014%12%-11%-30%-11%0%55%-24.4% 9.7%28.3% 24.0%7.
126、7% 21.1%-7.3% -34.4%n/a 204.1%-2.3% 46.5%22.1% 11.0%12.514.89.415.748.824.55.811.312.07.724.016.016.85.22.41.01.710.02.01.81.53.5%2.9%3.5%5.4%1.1%1.2%2.3%NeutralNeutralNeutralUnderperformUnderperformNeutralOutperformGFIJ.JGold Fields8.7R107.2n/an/an/an/an/an/an/an/aRestrictedEXXJ.JExxaro Resources6.
127、7R171.0R182.06% 11.6%9.6%9.89.01.73.4%OutperformHARJ.JHarmony Gold3.0R62.1R82.032% 15.9% 18.8%9.07.50.71.4%UnderperformLMI.LACLJ.JLonmin PlcArcelorMittal SA2.91.6P325.6R35.3P320.0R34.0-2%-4%n/a 782.9%n/a -56.7%146.435.116.681.20.80.60.0%0.9%OutperformNeutralAQP.LAquarius Platinum Ltd0.5p68.3p60.0-12
128、%n/an/an/a19.70.80.0%Neutral330.28.5% -11.4% 13.2%12.611.11.93.3%ConsumerBATS.LSAB.LCFR.VXNPNJn.JSHPJ.JTBSJ.JBATSABMillerRichemontNaspersShoprite HoldingsTiger Brands Ltd99.1 p3,256.0 p3,380.077.4 p3,076.5 p3,300.043.3 SFr76.9 SFr85.025.2 R565.1 R500.011.5 R180.0 R142.06.4 R300.0 R251.04%7%11%-12%-2
129、1%-16%8.3%14.4%14.9%43.4%19.2%13.3%9.5%12.7%9.5%39.8%16.0%9.1%14.519.917.831.425.616.013.217.716.322.522.114.77.42.83.44.16.43.14.5%2.1%1.0%0.7%2.0%3.2%OutperformOutperformOutperformOutperformUnderperformUnderperformWHLJ.JSHFJ.JTRUJ.JMSMJ.JMPCJ.JTFGJ.JPIKJ.JSPPJ.JAVIJ.JPFGJ.JJDGJ.JOCEJ.JLEWJ.JWoolwo
130、rths HoldingsSteinhoffTruworthsMassMart HoldingMr. PriceThe Foschini GroupPick n PaySpar GroupAVI LimitedPioneer FoodsJD Group LtdOceana LtdLewis Group6.15.65.44.53.53.32.52.31.91.71.00.90.8R64.9R27.1R104.8R185.6R125.0R123.0R46.7R120.8R55.0R65.7R42.3R68.0R69.8R72.5R40.0R109.0R175.0R136.0R158.0R49.0R
131、132.0R50.5R67.5R58.0R68.5R90.012%47%4%-6%9%28%5%9%-8%3%37%1%29%29.2%14.4%16.7%22.1%21.9%17.9%0.4%23.3%16.3%15.3%n/a13.6%9.3%14.8%25.1%13.7%51.2%19.6%20.5%78.3%13.7%13.9%20.4%13.0%11.2%12.3%19.57.517.226.322.113.532.517.115.413.57.713.67.317.06.015.117.418.511.218.215.013.511.36.812.36.57.21.16.68.56
132、.63.48.47.04.61.51.04.11.13.9%3.9%3.6%2.5%3.2%4.3%2.3%4.4%4.5%2.4%6.5%4.9%6.9%NeutralOutperformNeutralNeutralNeutralOutperformOutperformNeutralNeutralOutperformOutperformOutperformOutperform302.34.5% 17.9% 13.7%17.115.13.92.9%Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesOn 22 January Credit Suisse S
133、outh Africa strategist Ashok Bhundia highlighted BHPBilliton, Lonmin and Exxaro as his preferred overweight positions in his model portfolio andfurther reduced his exposure to Shoprite and Mr Price (see South Africa Equity Strategy:Resources over retail).EEMEA Equity Strategy1730 January 2013Compani
134、es Mentioned (Price as of 28-Jan-2013)Anglo American Plc (AAL.L, 1872.5p)ArcelorMittal South Africa (ACLJ.J, R35.3)Anglo American Platinum Ltd (AMSJ.J, R439.94)AngloGold Ashanti (ANGJ.J, R248.09)Aquarius Platinum Ltd (AQP.L, 68.25p)AVI Limited (AVIJ.J, R55.0)British American Tobacco (BATS.L, 3256.0p
135、)BHP Billiton (BLT.L, 2111.5p)Compagnie Financiere Richemont SA (CFR.VX, SFr76.9)Exxaro Resources (EXXJ.J, R171.0)Gold Fields (GFIJ.J, R107.19)Harmony Gold (HARJ.J, R62.14)Impala Holdings Limited (IMPJ.J, R165.44)Imperial Holding Limited (IPLJ.J, R200.47)JD Group Ltd (JDGJ.J, R42.3)Kumba Iron Ore (K
136、IOJ.J, R587.0)Lewis Group (LEWJ.J, R69.75)Lonmin Plc (LMI.L, 325.0p)Mr. Price (MPCJ.J, R125.0)MassMart Holding (MSMJ.J, R185.57)Naspers (NPNJn.J, R565.09)Oceana Ltd (OCEJ.J, R68.0)Pioneer Foods (PFGJ.J, R65.7)Pick n Pay (PIKJ.J, R46.7)SABMiller (SAB.L, 3076.5p)Steinhoff International Holdings (SHFJ.
137、J, R27.12)Shoprite Holdings Limited (SHPJ.J, R180.0)Sasol Limited (SOLJ.J, R379.66)Spar Group (SPPJ.J, R120.79)Tiger Brands Ltd (TBSJ.J, R300.0)The Foschini Group (TFGJ.J, R123.0)Truworths International Limited (TRUJ.J, R104.75)Woolworths Holdings Limited (WHLJ.J, R64.9)Disclosure AppendixImportant
138、Global DisclosuresThe analysts identified in this report each certify, with respect to the companies or securities that the individual analyzes, that (1) the viewsexpressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part o
139、f his or hercompensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received Compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suissestotal revenues,
140、a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisses investment banking activitiesAs of December 10, 2012 Analysts stock rating are defined as follows:Outperform (O) : The stocks total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark*over the next 12 months.Neutral (N) : The stocks total return
141、 is expected to be in line with the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.Underperform (U) : The stocks total return is expected to underperform the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.*Relevant benchmark by region: As of 10th December 2012, Japanese ratings are based on a stocks total
142、 return relative to the analysts coverage universe whichconsists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, andUnderperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. As of 2nd October 2012
143、, U.S. and Canadian as well as European ra tings are based on a stocks totalreturn relative to the analysts coverage universe which consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector, with Outperforms representing themost attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underpe
144、rforms the least attractive investment opportunities. For Latin American and non-Japan Asia stocks, ratingsare based on a stocks total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional benchmark; Austr alia, New Zealand are, and prior to 2ndOctober 2012 U.S. and Canadia
145、n ratings were based on (1) a stocks absolute total return potential to its current share price and (2) the relative attractiveness of astocks total return potential within an analysts coverage universe. For Australian and New Zealand stocks, 12-month rolling yield is incorporated in the absolute to
146、talreturn calculation and a 15% and a 7.5% threshold replace the 10-15% level in the Outperform and Underperform stock rating definitions, respectively. The 15% and7.5% thresholds replace the +10-15% and -10-15% levels in the Neutral stock rating definition, respectively. Prior to 10th December 2012
147、, Japanese ratings werebased on a stocks total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country or regional ben chmark.Restricted (R) : In certain circumstances, Credit Suisse policy and/or applicable law and regulations preclude certain types of communications,including an invest
148、ment recommendation, during the course of Credit Suisses engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain othercircumstances.Volatility Indicator V : A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has moved up or down by 20% or more in a month in at least 8 of the past 24months or t
149、he analyst expects significant volatility going forward.Analysts sector weightings are distinct from analysts stock ratings and are based on the analysts expectations for the fundamentals and/orvaluation of the sector* relative to the groups historic fundamentals and/or valuation:EEMEA Equity Strate
150、gy1816%30 January 2013Overweight : The analysts expectation for the sectors fundamentals and/or valuation is favorable over the next 12 months.Market Weight : The analysts expectation for the sectors fundamentals and/or valuation is neutral over the next 12 months.Underweight : The analysts expectat
151、ion for the sectors fundamentals and/or valuation is cautious over the next 12 months.*An analysts coverage sector consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector. An analyst may cov er multiple sectors.Credit Suisses distribution of stock ratings (and banking clients) is
152、:Global Ratings DistributionRatingOutperform/Buy*Neutral/Hold*Versus universe (%)43%38%Of which banking clients (%)(53% banking clients)(47% banking clients)Underperform/Sell*Restricted3%(41% banking clients)*For purposes of the NYSE and NASD ratings distribution disclosure requirements, our stock r
153、atings of Outperform, Neutral, an d Underperform most closelycorrespond to Buy, Hold, and Sell, respectively; however, the meanings are not the same, as our stock ratings are determined on a relative basis. (Please refer todefinitions above.) An investors decision to buy or sell a security should be
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157、it- for the definitions of abbreviations typically used in thetarget price method and risk sections.See the Companies Mentioned section for full company namesThe subject company (AAL.L, ACLJ.J, AMSJ.J, ANGJ.J, BLT.L, BATS.L, EXXJ.J, TRUJ.J, CFR.VX, JDGJ.J, LEWJ.J, NPNJn.J, SAB.L, SHFJ.J,WHLJ.J) curr
158、ently is, or was during the 12-month period preceding the date of distribution of this report, a client of Credit Suisse.Credit Suisse provided investment banking services to the subject company (ANGJ.J, EXXJ.J, SAB.L) within the past 12 months.Credit Suisse provided non-investment banking services
159、to the subject company (AAL.L, ACLJ.J, AMSJ.J, BLT.L, BATS.L, CFR.VX, JDGJ.J,WHLJ.J) within the past 12 monthsCredit Suisse has received investment banking related compensation from the subject company (ANGJ.J, EXXJ.J, SAB.L) within the past 12 monthsCredit Suisse expects to receive or intends to se
160、ek investment banking related compensation from the subject company (ANGJ.J, BLT.L, HARJ.J,AVIJ.J, BATS.L, EXXJ.J, TRUJ.J, CFR.VX, GFIJ.J, JDGJ.J, LEWJ.J, NPNJn.J, SAB.L, SHFJ.J, TBSJ.J, LMI.L) within the next 3 months.Credit Suisse has received compensation for products and services other than inve
161、stment banking services from the subject company (AAL.L,ACLJ.J, AMSJ.J, BLT.L, BATS.L, CFR.VX, JDGJ.J, WHLJ.J) within the past 12 monthsAs of the end of the preceding month, Credit Suisse beneficially own 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of (CFR.VX, SHFJ.J).Credit Suisse has a mater
162、ial conflict of interest with the subject company (GFIJ.J). Credit Suisse is acting as co-financial advisor on Gold Fieldsunbundling and subsequent listing of Sibanye Gold Limited, previously known as GFI Mining South Africa Proprietary LimitedImportant Regional DisclosuresSingapore recipients shoul
163、d contact Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch for any matters arising from this research report.The analyst(s) involved in the preparation of this report have not visited the material operations of the subject company (AAL.L, ACLJ.J, AMSJ.J,ANGJ.J, BLT.L, HARJ.J, SPPJ.J, AQP.L, AVIJ.J, BATS.L, EXXJ.J
164、, IPLJ.J, KIOJ.J, MSMJ.J, TRUJ.J, CFR.VX, GFIJ.J, IMPJ.J, JDGJ.J, LEWJ.J,MPCJ.J, NPNJn.J, PFGJ.J, PIKJ.J, SAB.L, SHFJ.J, SHPJ.J, SOLJ.J, TBSJ.J, TFGJ.J, WHLJ.J, LMI.L, OCEJ.J) within the past 12 monthsRestrictions on certain Canadian securities are indicated by the following abbreviations: NVS-Non-V
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175、 Credit Suisse HOLT DisclosuresWith respect to the analysis in this report based on the Credit Suisse HOLT methodology, Credit Suisse certifies that (1) the views expressed in thisreport accurately reflect the Credit Suisse HOLT methodology and (2) no part of the Firms compensation was, is, or will
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