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1、EVOLUTION OF WIRELESS DATA PRICINGJanuary2001Materials for Discussion with Service Providers- 1 -WirelessPricing-1feb-tor-athv1.ppt“WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE?”Launched in September 20015th most popular WAP destination in Canada by December 2001Yet priced like a 5 minute call- 2 -WirelessPricing-
2、1feb-tor-athv1.pptPRECIPITOUS DECLINE IN WIRELESS DATA PRICES WITH INCREASE IN BANDWIDTH(1) Mid-pointofrolloutdatesacrosscountriesSource: Serviceproviderplanpricinginformation,November152001Mobitex819882G+14.41999 2G+28.8 2000 2.5G5620013G3842002 Network Generation Kbps Network Rollout Date(1) 2G 9.
3、61994Current price per MB indexed to first generation network (Mobitex)91%Comparable to 10-year drop in wireline data prices (95% decline)Actual Prices on 15 Nov 2001Methodology5 major markets surveyedCanada, US, UK, Germany, JapanCurrent average price per MB calculated for each network generationAv
4、erage price per MB indexed to first generation network (Mobitex)- 3 -WirelessPricing-1feb-tor-athv1.pptWITH CURRENT PRICING, SIGNIFICANT 3G REVENUE SHORTFALL PREDICTED IN U.S.2000-2010 Cumulative U.S. 3G Cash Flow(1)CurrentNTTDoCoMoaverage-use3Gpriceis$3.21/MBSources:MerrillLynch,DeutscheBank,Legg&M
5、ason,Nokia,UMTSForumreports;BCGanalysis$64-82BOpEx40% of revenue(Merrill Lynch)CapEx High estimate: independent networks(Deutsche Bank)License fees (FCC)Trend line voice ARPU (Merrill Lynch) x 3G user base (UMTS Forum)Projected data throughput volume (Merrill Lynch) x current 3G per MB price(1) (DoC
6、oMo)Low estimate: shared networks (Nokia)2x increase in price per MB required to fill gapCostRevenue$13B$25BVoice $14BData $30B$20-38BShortfall$26B$44B- 4 -WirelessPricing-1feb-tor-athv1.pptOPERATOR IMPERATIVES FOR MITIGATING 3G REVENUE SHORTFALLMigrate to pricing based on application value to end-u
7、serUse low-margin services as loss-leaders to drive adoptionWork with application developers to accelerate application time-to-marketDevelop proprietary applications to maximize revenue captureDevelop product bundles to drive package revenuesGenerate Additional Revenues From Data Applications1Minimi
8、ze CapexShare networksReuse legacy infrastructure: -e.g., analog, 2G base stationsExercise price pressure on infrastructure suppliersRenegotiate license costs with governmentsSeek regulatory suspensionof population coverage clauses to permit limited 3G rollout2Manage Migration to 3GMaximize asset pr
9、oductivity on existing network through managed migrationOptions:-Increase 2G prices to migrate users to 3G-Lower 2G prices to stop attracting application development for 2G phones-Increase 3G prices to migrate users back to 2G 3- 5 -WirelessPricing-1feb-tor-athv1.pptCheck flight statusCheck bank bal
10、ancePlaying “Millionaire” gameEmail + joke attachmentEmail + project updateNewspaperLook up dataPlace grocery orderUrgent VM NoticeFlight status messageWeather updatePersonal emailBusiness emailSynchronizeCalendarEmail + press clippingWireless Email on PCWireless Internet Access on PCWAPSMSRIM pager
11、$.38$.32$.18$.09$.55Estimated Value of ApplicationHighLowCURRENT PRICING BASED ON APPLICATION TYPE, NOT VALUE TO USERNote: AverageUSpriceperserviceSource: USoperatorpriceplans,November2001Value-based pricingUser Perception of Wireless Application ValueCurrentprice/use(US$)MobilityEase of use Urgency
12、 of dataSynchronization with wireline applicationsValue DriversLost Revenue OpportunitiesBusiness user may be willing to pay more to synchronize all calendar devices than to read a personal emailTeenager may be willing to pay more to play the “Millionaire” game than to check bank balance- 6 -Wireles
13、sPricing-1feb-tor-athv1.pptCURRENT PRICING BASED ON APPLICATION TYPE, NOT VALUE TO USERNote: AverageUSpriceperserviceSource:USoperatorpriceplans,November2001Value-based pricingBusiness User Perception of Wireless Application ValueValue of ApplicationHighLowCheck flight statusPlay “Millionaire” gameP
14、ay billsEmail + joke attachmentEmail + data updateReadNewspaperLook up dataPlace grocery orderUrgent VM noticeFlight status messageReceiveweather updateDaily e-newsletterEmail from colleagueCalendar SynchronizationSynchronization with wireline applicationsMobilityUrgency of dataEase of useValue Driv
15、ersEmail +press clippingPrice/Use (US$)$.38$.32$.18$.09$.55Application typeWireless Internet on PCWAP browserSMS messageRIM pagerWireless Email on PC- 7 -WirelessPricing-1feb-tor-athv1.pptEXPLORE POTENTIAL TO PRICE BASED ON APPLICATION VALUE TO END-USER TO DRIVE GREATER REVENUE CAPTURE(1) Assume$.25
16、basedonaverageUSper-minutecallprices+1minuteuploadtime(2)Assume$3.21/MB,basedoncurrentFOMA/3GperMBpricinginJapan(3)Assumepricingat50%discounttosubstitutestoencourageusermigrationSource: BCGanalysisExample: Send 24 digital photos from wireless-enabled camera$/minute pricing(1)$/MB pricing(2)Value-bas
17、ed pricing$.25$3.21Cost of developing and sending 24 photos by regular mailOpportunity for value-based pricing(3)$6.00Value-based pricing$12.00- 8 -WirelessPricing-1feb-tor-athv1.pptSUMMARYExponential increases in wireless data bandwidth coupled with continuedper minute pricing has reduced revenue p
18、er MB deliveredEssential to mitigate potential 3G revenue shortfallsAlthough operators are moving to per MB pricing, market is quickly establishing data price point below “fair value” of application/data service deliveredOperators must quickly move to re-set data service pricing model in order to re
19、verse price and revenue declinesOptimized 3G data pricing combined with cost reductions and new revenue source identification critical to operator success - 9 -WirelessPricing-1feb-tor-athv1.pptTWO POTENTIAL OPTIONS FOR BCG MOVING FORWARD WITH MATERIALSIncorporate with existing Toronto client workan
20、dDistribute to TCPA O/M and add to KM as Innovation Note/DeckPreferredOption1Pressure test numbers and develop thought piece for TCPA2- 10 -WirelessPricing-1feb-tor-athv1.pptBACK-UP- 11 -WirelessPricing-1feb-tor-athv1.pptMETHODOLOGY: PRICE PER MB ACROSS NETWORK SPEEDSKbps89.614.428.856384Country Sam
21、pleCA, US, UK, DE, JPCA, US, UK, DE, JPCA, US, DEUK, JPCA, US, UK, DEJP Network ServicesRIM pagingText pagingWAPWireless webSMSWAPWireless webCalculation of $/MBData limits($/month)/(MB/month)Flat fee plan($/month)/(2.4MB/month)WAP and data services charged per minute as voice ($/minute)/MbpsSMS cha
22、rged per message($/SMS)/(MB/SMS) Services charged by volume$/MBPlanTypeServiceTypeNetwork GenerationMobitex 2G2G+2G+2.5G3GBack-up- 12 -WirelessPricing-1feb-tor-athv1.pptPRICING OF WIRELESS DATA ACROSS GENERATIONSCountry & ProvidersNetwork GenerationAvg. Price/MB Local $Avg. Price/MB US$Mobitex8kbps2
23、G9.6kbps2.25G14.4kbps2.5G56kbpsMobitex 8kbps2G9.6kbps2.25G14.4kbps2.5G56kbps Mobitex 8kbps2G9.6kbps2.25G28.8kbps2.5G56kbpsMobitex 8kbps2G9.6kbps2.25G14.4kbps2.5G56kbpsMobitex8kbps2G 9.6kpbs2.25G28.8kbps3G384kbpsMobitex8kbps2G9.6kbps2.25G14.4kbps2.25G28.8kbps2.5G56kbps3G384kbpsPrice Change Index$26.9
24、4$26.70$17.77$10.77$22.89$17.72$15.82$13.2157.4933.6926.125.92208.33DM49.96DM56.32DM40.86DM7812.502343.751692.71722.66$16.92$16.77$11.16$6.77$22.89$17.72$15.82$13.21$82.91$48.58$37.66$8.54$94.08$22.56$25.43$18.45$64.25$19.28$13.92$5.94Back-up10099-.88%66-34%40-60%10077-23%69-31%58-42%10059-41%45-55%
25、10-90%10024-76%27-73%20-80%10030-70%22-78%9-91%10058-42%-46%40-38%77-68%9-71%Canada-Bell Mobility-Fido-Rogers AT&T -TelusUS-Verizon-SprintPCS-Cingular-Voicestream-Nextel-Earthlink (RIM Only)-Aether (RIM Only)UK-BT Cellnet-One2One-Vodafone-OrangeGermany-T-D1 (Deutsche Telekom)-D2 Mannesmann/Vodafone-
26、Viag Interkom-e-plusJapan-NTT DoCoMoGlobal(Average of all country data)- 13 -WirelessPricing-1feb-tor-athv1.pptWIRELINE DATA PRICES DRAMATICALLY DECREASEDCurrent Price per MB Indexed to First Generation (9.6 Kbps Dial-Up Connection)9Mbps2000DSL3Mbps1999Cable ModemDial-Up ModemNote:U.S.internetaccess
27、pricing,2001Source:VeronisSuhler,CommunicationsIndustryReportJuly2001;Qualcomm,eMarketer99.34%82%66%9.6Kbps199028.8Kbps199556Kbps199799.68%Connection SpeedRollout DateAccess MethodBack-up- 14 -WirelessPricing-1feb-tor-athv1.pptU.S. PRICE DROP CONSISTENT FOR NORTH AMERICA.Note:US$valuesasof15Nov.2001
28、Source: ServiceproviderplanpricinginformationCanada Current Price per MB Indexed to First Generation (Mobitex)Network Gen.Kbps RolloutMobitex81988 2G9.61994 2G+14.4 1999 3G3842001 2G+28.820002.5G562001 Current Price per MB Indexed to First Generation (Mobitex)Network Gen.Kbps RolloutMobitex81988 2G9
29、.61994 2G+14.4 1999 3G3842001 2G+28.820002.5G562001 Back-up- 15 -WirelessPricing-1feb-tor-athv1.pptUnited Kingdom Germany .AND REST OF WORLD Note:US$valuesasof15Nov.2001Source: ServiceproviderplanpricinginformationCurrent Price per MB Indexed to First Generation (Mobitex)Current Price per MB Indexed
30、 to First Generation (Mobitex)Japan Current Price per MB Indexed to First Generation (Mobitex)EuropeAsiaNetwork Gen.Kbps Rollout Mobitex81988 2G9.6 1994 2G+14.41999 3G38420012G+28.8 2000 2.5G56 2001 Network Gen.Kbps Rollout Mobitex81988 2G9.6 1994 2G+14.41999 3G38420012.5G56 2001 2G+28.8 2000 Networ
31、k Gen.Kbps Rollout Mobitex81988 2G9.6 1994 2G+14.41999 3G38420012.5G56 2001 2G+28.8 2000 Back-up- 16 -WirelessPricing-1feb-tor-athv1.pptWIRELESS DATA APPLICATIONS FALL INTO DISTINCT END-USER VALUE CATEGORIESRationaleInconvenient to accessInconvenient to accessLow-urgency informationEasy, synchronize
32、d; low average urgencyEasy, synchronized, urgentEasy; costly, not urgentEasy, convenient; medium average urgencyEasy, synchronized, urgentConvenient; costlyEasy; slow to use, medium average urgencyEasy, quick, medium-to-high urgencyInconvenient to access, slowConvenient service; inconvenient to acce
33、ssHigh average urgencyMedium average urgencyHigh average urgencyWireless ApplicationPersonal emailBusiness email Personal emailBusiness emailCalendar synchronizationWeather updateFlight status update Urgent VM noticeMovie listings Bank balance Flight status enquiryRead newspaperPlace grocery orderCh
34、eck information sitePersonal email + digital photoBusiness email + analyst report(1)AveragepriceinUS$peruseofapplication,averagedacrossa5-countrysample.Pricesaccurateat15November2001(2)ValuationsbasedonBCGuserestimationsValue(2)LowMediumLowMediumHighLowMediumHighLowMediumHighLowMediumHighMediumHighC
35、urrent Price(1)$.05$.05$.09$.09$.09$.18$.18$.18$.32$.32$.32$.38$.38$.38$.55$.55Delivery ModeWireless modemWireless modemRIM pagerRIM pagerRIM pagerSMSSMSSMSWAPWAPWAPWireless modemWireless modemWireless modemWireless modemWireless modemBack-Up- 17 -WirelessPricing-1feb-tor-athv1.pptPRICE OF EXISTING
36、SUBSTITUTES CAN BE USED TO ESTABLISH NEW APPLICATIONS VALUE-BASED PRICING Wireless ApplicationsExisting Consumer SubstitutesDevelop and send 24 photos by regular mailPlay group games on computer or television deviceListen to MP3 files on portable MP3 playerTraditional$12 Developing & postage$40-50/m
37、o Assuming 1 new game each month$.01 Per MP3 downloaded into playerPriceWirelineSend 24 digital photos as email attachmentPlay group games via wireline connectionListen to MP3 files on computer$.02 2Mb attachment$10/mo sub. fee$.01 per MP3 downloadedPrice(1)AllpricesinUS$;assume10%wirelesspricedisco
38、untovertraditionalsubstituterequiredtomigrateusers(2)At$.07/MBover3Gnetwork(Qualcommestimate)Sources:Websites;BCGsurveysBack-up: ConsumerPersonalContactsMusicGaming3G SubstituteSend 24 digital photos immediately from camera via mobile phone (2Mb)Play group games via wireless web connectionListen to
39、MP3 files from web host on mobile phoneUser Valuation(1)$10-11 Per photo roll$20-25/mo Sub. fee$.01 Per MP3 downloadedOperator Cost(2)MB x $.07 = Cost.$.14(2MB)$7 Assuming 1 hour of play/mo. over 28.8kbps stream (100MB)$.02 Per MP3 downloaded(400KB)OpportunityValue= High potential value= Limited pot
40、ential value- 18 -WirelessPricing-1feb-tor-athv1.pptPRICE OF EXISTING SUBSTITUTES CAN BE USED TO ESTABLISH NEW APPLICATION VALUE-BASED PRICING Traditional$5 Data entry cost$75 20 minutes, at $.50/minradio network cost + $65 for doctors time$300 Send specialist to repair site for 2 hoursPriceWireline
41、Complete order forms in field and submit via wireline connection at officen/an/a$5 Data entry costn/an/aPrice(1)AllpricesinUS$;assume10%wirelesspricediscountovertraditionalsubstituterequiredtomigrateusers(2)At$.07/MBover3Gnetwork(Qualcommestimate)Sources:Websites;BCGsurveysBack-up: Enterprise3G Subs
42、tituteComplete and submit orders from field siteAccess medical records and submit diagnostic data directly from intranet emergency record management systemContact specialist by mobile phone aided by video streamUser Valuation(1)$4.50 Per order$68 Per emergency call$250 Specialist advice by phoneOper
43、ator Cost(2)MB X $.07 = Cost$.03 20-page order form (500KB)$10 Per 20 minute emergency call 128 kbps stream (153MB)$65 Per repair, with 128 kbps video stream (900MB)OpportunityValueComplete order forms in field and submit via phone or fax at officeAccess medical records and submit diagnostic data via radio or telephoneSend repair specialist to customer site= High potential valueField OrdersRepair ServicesRemote Emergency ServicesWireless ApplicationsExisting Enterprise Substitutes- 19 -WirelessPricing-1feb-tor-athv1.ppt青苹果出品青苹果出品 必属精品必属精品http:/
