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1、aNew Risk Assessment Tools for Improved Hazard Risk ManagementPresentation to theWorld BankJuly 26, 2005aOverviewnWho we are.nWhat is the need.nThe U.S. response.nHow developing countries and the WB can benefit from the U.S. experience.nHow NIBS & the MAE Center can support making it happen.aWho We
2、ArenNational Institute of Building ScienceslA non-profit, non-governmental organization authorized by the U.S. Congress.lDevelops risk assessment and decision support tools, such as HAZUS, and conducts related studies and research. nMid-America Earthquake CenterlFunded by the National Science Founda
3、tion (NSF) and partner universities.lDevelops computer based decision support tools on a shared network system. lResearches earthquakes and risk reduction methods.aOur MissionCollaborating to bring together resources from academia, government and the private sector to put useful tools in the hands o
4、f practitioners worldwide for the purpose of reducing the human and economic costs of natural disasters.aNatural disasters are extremely costly in human and economic terms. aEl Salvador Earthquakes January and February 2001January and February 2001Photo: Brent Woodworth, IBMaCasualties (Deaths)nWorl
5、dwide (1992 2001) 77,756nIndian Ocean lTsunamis (2004) 273,636lTropical Cyclone Gorky, Bangladesh (1990) 138,000nCentral America/Caribbean BasinlEl Salvador Earthquakes (2001) 1,159lHurricane Mitch (1998) 20,000lHurricane Georges (1998) - 600lManagua Earthquake, Nicaragua (1972) 20,000nMiddle EastlB
6、am Earthquake, Iran (2003) 26,000lKocaeli Earthquakes, Turkey (1999) 9,500aEconomic Losses (in Billions of $)(in Billions of $)nWorldwide (1992 2001) - $238nIndian OceanlTsunamis (2004) - $20lTropical Cyclone Gorky, Bangladesh (1990) - $.003nCentral America/Caribbean BasinlEl Salvador Earthquakes (2
7、001) - $3lManagua Earthquake, Nicaragua (1972) - $1nMiddle EastlKocaeliaWhat Are the Costs to the Developing World?nBillions of dollars in direct and secondary economic losses, now and in the future.nSet backs to local and national economies that may last for decades.nGreater percentages of GDP used
8、 to pay for damage and loss.nDestabilized communities.nSerious and long-lasting effects that contribute to continuing poverty.aBam, Iran Earthquake December 2003December 2003Photo: Masoud ZadehaKocaeli, Turkey Earthquake August 1999August 1999Photo: Charles ScawthornaWhat are the Costs to Internatio
9、nal Lenders?nDegraded sustainability of infrastructure projects.nReduced economic value of projects.nReduced value of loan portfolios.aGrand Cayman HurricaneSeptember 2004September 2004Photo: Brent Woodworth, IBMaYala, Sri Lanka Tsunami December 2004December 2004Photo: USGSaKocaeli, Turkey Earthquak
10、e August 1999August 1999Photo: Charles ScawthornaRisk Management as a ResponsenImproves structural resistance to the effects of natural hazards.nSaves lives and preserves economic resources.nStabilizes and secures communities.nEnables more effective response and relief following disasters.aHow Risk
11、Management WorksnIdentifies vulnerabilities and the potential effects of natural hazards.nDevelops and assesses loss reduction strategies.nProvides guidance for allocating response resources before disasters.nIdentifies areas of vulnerability during disaster events.nProvides information for decision
12、-makers.aHow Risk Management WorksResidential damage:HAZUS Hurricane Model% Complete DamageaHow Risk Management WorksResidential damagewith mitigation:HAZUS Hurricane Model% CompleteDamageaOverview of Risk Assessment Tools Used in the U.S.aRisk Assessment ToolsnPC-based tools are central to effectiv
13、e hazard risk management.nIn the U.S., these types of tools were developed in response to costly disasters in the early 1990s Hurricane Andrew, the Mississippi floods and the Northridge Earthquake.nHAZUS and MAEviz are primary examples.aHAZUSnA natural hazards assessment tool that simulates potentia
14、l earthquakes, floods and hurricanes and their physical, economic and social consequences.nBased on advanced engineering and science.nPC and GIS based.n13-year program sponsored by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).aMAEviznEstimates potential earthquake damage, including effects on tran
15、sportation networks and socio-economic systems.nA decision support tool, using 3D virtual reality to help users review intervention options and evaluate loss reduction scenarios.nBuilt on the Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES) grid, a system that links earthquake researchers and pr
16、actitioners worldwide.aUse of a Risk Management ToolsCasualties and Hospitals HAZUS Earthquake Model% HospitalizedaApplications of HAZUS and MAEvizaUse of Risk Assessment Tools in the U.S.nNational annualized loss studies.nRapid response applications.nStatewide loss studies.nFederal mitigation progr
17、ams.nLocal studies.nLifeline (transportation & utility) studies.aFEMA UsesnNationwide annualized loss studies to compare hazard risk nationwide for earthquake, hurricane and flood hazards.nFuture benefits of mitigation study, as required by House Appropriations Committee and by the Disaster Mitigati
18、on Act of 2000.nStudy to evaluate effectiveness of NFIP metrics.nRequired for state hazard mitigation plans under the Disaster Mitigation Act (DMA) of 2000.aStatewide StudiesnMany states are performing statewide risk studies on a county by county basis, e.g., Maryland, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, India
19、na, Arkansas and Connecticut.nThese studies point to areas with greatest vulnerabilities within the states.nResults are being used to allocate resources and for preparedness planning.aSt. Johns County, FL - BeforeaAfter a HAZUS Flood Model 500-year EventaRegional and Local StudiesnStudy of earthquak
20、e risks and mitigation for the tri-state New York City metropolitan area. nUsed by Kansas National Guard Civilian Support Team incident commanders during emergencies.nCharlotte-Mecklenburg flood studies for rezoning.nAsh fall study for a Yellowstone supervolcano event.aApplications in Relief and Rap
21、id Response nFour Florida hurricanes (2004): Charlie, Jeanne, Frances and Ivan.nSan Simeon Earthquake, California (2003).nNisqually Earthquake, Washington (2001).aApplication in Rapid ResponseTree Debris:HAZUS Hurricane ModelTree Debris in TonsaAmerican Red Cross UsesnRelief operations support.nDete
22、rmining hardest hit areas. nEstimates for:lNumber and location of people in need of shelter, food, water, sanitationlNumbers of case workers neededlWhere to obtain relief supplieslWhere to locate facilities and sheltersnEstimates for relief effort costs based on affected populations for fund raising
23、 efforts.aEstablishing Building CodesnHAZUS used in a building code study for manufactured housing construction and safety standards.nVerified that the homes built under new 1994 code perform significantly better than the old code.nDemonstrated the benefits of building more manufactured housing to t
24、he higher standards, even when not required by the code.nDemonstrated the benefits of improved wind speed mapping in HAZUS.aLifeline Studies MAEviz applied to Memphis gas pipeline network earthquake loss assessment and asset managementDiameter DischargeColor - DamageaLifeline Studies (contd)(contd)S
25、outh Carolina DoT study of Traffic Carrying CapacityTCC(90%)(70%)(40%)(0%)aLifeline Studies (contd)(contd)MAEviz applied to prioritize projects to strengthen bridges to optimize network efficiencyaBenefits of International Risk Assessment ToolsaRisk Assessment in Developing CountriesnReduce loss of
26、life and property.nImprove emergency response.nIncrease stability and economic security.nSupport programs in mitigation, emergency management and response and recovery.nEstimate potential losses to enable better planning and improved construction practices.aUse of Risk Management ToolsShelter Needs:
27、HAZUS Earthquake ModelDisplaced HouseholdsaRisk Assessment and the World BanknAssist client countries in incorporating hazard management.nImprove client countries risk reduction strategies and decision-making in the U.S., $4 are saved for every $1 spent on disaster loss reduction projects.nIncorpora
28、te hazard management into World Bank project planning.nSupport lending programs that incorporate risk reduction.aRisk Assessment and Regional OrganizationsnMaintain regional stability and economic security.nSupport planning for response and recovery.nAssist countries that have diminished means for p
29、erforming hazard management.aOverview of New International Risk Assessment ToolsaProposed International ApplicationnBased on HAZUS and MAEviz technology.nUser-friendly software.nOperates on a standard PC.nGIS (geographical information systems) for mapping and data management.nAll risk assessment too
30、ls accessed remotely.aHazardsnEarthquakesnFloodsnHurricanes/Cyclones/TyphoonsnTsunamisnVolcanoesnLandslidesnWildfiresnOther hazardsaHazardsWind Speeds:HAZUS Hurricane ModelMax. Sustained Wind Speeds (mph)aRisk Assessment ComponentsnHazard characterizationnBuilding damagenEssential facilities damagen
31、Vehicle damagenAgricultural damagenLifelines damage nSecondary fire-following lossnDebrisnCasualtiesnShelternDirect economic lossnIndirect economic lossaEconomic Loss ComponentDirect Economic Loss:HAZUS Flood Model (Losses in thousands $) aDatabase SystemnAnalysis withlRemotely accessed datalUser-su
32、pplied data, models and technologynData collections toolsnRemote data storagelTableslMultiple resolutionsnMappinglLayering data for simultaneous viewinglThematic analysis and displaynEditingnImport-exportaManaging Data in HAZUSaDatabasesnPopulationnBuilding count & heights nLand covernBoundaries, ro
33、ads, contours, building characteristicsnProxy databasesaUsing the New Risk Assessment Tool InternationallyaImplementation on the NEESgridnImplemented as web services - users only need a PC and internet link to conduct risk assessment studies.nAccess privileges set for users and developers.nAll softw
34、are programs are run from the NEESgrid.nAll data is contained on the NEESgrid.nThe NEESgrid:lLinks remote sites, computers and servers.lProvides data screening, storage, preservation and sharing.lProvides uniform data and metadata (data about data) formats and protocols.aNEESgrid NetworkNEESgridaNEE
35、Sgrid and MAEvizMAEviz serves as the portal to NEESgrid by:lProviding access to new and existing risk assessment tools.lProviding access to new data as they become available anywhere in the world.lCombining the new risk assessment tools with the best existing models and data from different sources w
36、ithout necessarily downloading them.lUsing all available international resources to give decision-makers the best possible information.aNEESgrid and New Risk Assessment ToolNew International ToolsaHow we make use of risk data in MAEviznLarge amounts of hazard and exposure data existnThe new Risk Ass
37、essment tool will use D2KnD2K is Data-to-knowledge, a data discovery toolnCan be viewed as a very large tool boxnHas more than 1500 capabilities & functionsnFinds hidden trends & fits equationsnFinds relationships quicklynManages input-outputnPlotting relationsaFinal ThoughtsnThe state-of-the-art te
38、chnology of HAZUS and MAEviz can be used to develop effective new international risk assessment tools.nThe new tools can be accessed by users anywhere in the world through the NEESgrid/MAEviz web portal.nNew tools will support effective hazards risk management programs for the World Bank, developing
39、 countries, regional organizations, and communities.aWhy New Toolsn450,000+ lives have been lost since 1990 - save lives and protect people through improved construction and emergency response.n$250+ billion has been lost since 1990 - stabilize communities with strategies and actions that preserve infrastructure and communicate risk to citizens.nPreserve wealth and development gains through improved land use planning and construction practices $4 saved for every $1 spent on disaster loss reduction projects.
