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1、Justin Yifu LinSenior Vice President and Chief EconomistThe World BankToronto, November 23, 20101I.The Global Crisis and Challenge AheadII.The Emergence of Multiple Growth PolesIII.The Multipolar Growth World and Global Recovery 23The global financial crisis erupted in September 2008.The initial sho
2、cks to global equity markets, trade, and industrial production were more serious than the initial shocks of the Great Depression.The danger of another depression on a global scale was immense.4The governments learned lessons from the past, quickly held the G20 meeting in Washington and adopted coord
3、inated policy responses. Major policies included:Financial rescuesFree tradeThese two policies helped avoid the worst-case scenario.Monetary easingFiscal stimuliThe two policies above increased demand.With the inventory cycle, the recovery is stronger than initially expected. The global economy is l
4、ikely to grow from a contraction of 2.1 percent in 2009 to a positive rate of around 3.3 percent in 2010.5Industrial production volumes, index, January 2008=1001271009088Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects GroupExcess capacity repressed domestic demandsLow consumption demand due to high unemployment a
5、nd job insecurityLow incentives for private investmentSlower growthA weakening domestic financial systemWorsening sovereign debts7Dilemma of fiscal stimulus:Dilemma of fiscal stimulus:Continuing fiscal stimulus Effectiveness? (Ricardian Equivalence)Sustainability? (Rapid accumulation of public debts
6、)Exiting from fiscal stimulusLikelihood of a double dipIncreasing unemploymentPublic debts may also increase due to lower fiscal revenues and higher social spending.Dilemma of monetary policy:Dilemma of monetary policy:Stimulus may have reached its limits.Stimulus can lead to currency tension.Soluti
7、on: Solution: Productivity-enhancing type investment-led growth, Productivity-enhancing type investment-led growth, domestically and or globallydomestically and or globallySuch opportunity is limited in developed countries but abounds in developing countries89After the Industrial Revolution, the wor
8、ld was polarized.Growth in industrialized countries accelerated.Before the 2000, only a few developing economies were able to accelerate growth and caught up with industrialized countries. Most other developing countries failed to have sustainable growth.10Share of global GNI (USD)Share of global GN
9、I (USD)Share of global GNI (PPP)Share of global GNI (PPP)11Source: World Development Indicators, available at data.worldbank.org12Share of global GNI (USD)Share of global GNI (USD)Share of global GNI (PPP)Share of global GNI (PPP)13The world is more interconnected via trade and financeSource: World
10、Development Indicators, available at data.worldbank.org14Real GDP growth rates in percentSource: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2010: Crisis, finance, and growthWorldWorldHigh-incomeHigh-incomeMiddle IncomeMiddle IncomeThe Growth Report identified 13 economies that had an average 7 percent or
11、 higher growth rate for 25 years or more in the post-WWII period. The conditions for those economies to achieve that remarkable rate were:OpennessMacro stabilityHigh rates of savings and investmentMarket mechanismCommitted, credible, facilitating stateIn 2000-08, 29 economies achieved that outstandi
12、ng rate, including 11 from Sub-Saharan Africa.1617The main challenge for a sustained global recovery is the existence of large, underutilised capacity in the capital goods sector in HICs. A continuation of fiscal stimulus faces problem of Ricardian Equivalence and public debt accumulation Developing
13、 countries possess abundant, profitable investment opportunity for industrial upgrading and bottleneck-releasing infrastructure projects.Need for growth-lifting rather than growth-shifting policiesThe dynamic growth in developing countries is a win-win, contributing to:A sustainable recovery in the
14、world.The achievement of MDGs in developing countries and narrowing the income gaps with the high-income countries. 18Many developing countries also face fiscal stress in the crisis and about one-third of them has already been constrained by their external accounts. External assistance is required f
15、or those developing countries to implement countercyclical investments:Recent capital increase in the IFIs are welcomeMore financial innovations for supporting investments in developing countries are desirable Internal conditions must be improved in developing countries for new growth poles to take
16、root. Developing countries should adopt policies along the recommendation of the Growth Report to improve the function of markets and the government, so as to help mobilize domestic financial resources, attract foreign direct investment, and tap into the potential advantage of backwardness. 19The global recovery is stronger than expected but the foundation is fragileThe world is moving toward multipolar growthThe multipolar growth world provides a favorable condition for sustainable global recovery. 20Thank you 21
