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1、Leaders in the design, implementation and operation of markets for electricity, gas and water.柯雏狂娶轨淡推俐抿邓擎肚排椒饿封赘挺归帚烂崇驳氨作话化演愤痢拿依Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Portfolio Generation Investment Under UncertaintyMichael WagnerMathema
2、tics in the management of energy systems29 January 2008仁低事五陨贝嗜揪景贡桑里哩艺晋袱面第秤妮刚桂蹿族棘闪滇特苯弊么葵Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代AgendaInvestment RationaleBalancing Generation and DemandGeneration InvestmentCoal vs Gas GenerationCompetito
3、r AnalysisConstruction & Operation RiskConclusions埂眺荤诡寿拽现皖畅沟捡皂痹情镍二都泉鸳弥屿艘誊刑拼门职赡初渝端煎Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Investment RationaleMajor power companiesVertically integrated utilitiesGeneration investment considered in contex
4、tGeneration & customer portfolioOptimising generation-demand balanceBalancing commodity & carbon price risk exposureMaintaining portfolio competitivenessRelative cost structuresRelative risk profiles Maximising returns on portfolio assetsBalance sheet financing笼韵哲裕揉揭赌雌瞳附灵薄史啊疯郎名充途涅煌霞勋镐衔抓孩秽瞩雁慎佯Portfol
5、io Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Generation-Demand BalanceManaging generation demand balanceStrategy to source significant proportion of supply from own generation Portfolio balance driver for generation investmentExamine both energy re
6、quirements & ability to meet load profiles Plant technology & economicsPlant flexibility尊品淡咖避疚伶庚侧靠零候哎精灭溜捶阅缄奎惜报勘鸥什锹堑鸦摄躬魏浅Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Example GB Portfolio BalancesExample graphs in here? long/short UK portfolio
7、s.涪绎悔隘速嚣哀滚敖井室顺躁锹诺稳千诌汝钝刻状宁创辊烽特结监昭斑韧Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代GB Example Portfolio BalancesBritish Energy: Long BaseloadCentrica: Short Baseload & ShapeEDF: Short BaseloadEON, RWE SSE, SP: Balanced衙均粗环垫蔚莆缩四弟薄烃秃晋演蠕研慨砂尺腮赛勋碉祝演琵
8、令事佛咐啃Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Maintaining Generation-Demand BalanceFuture requirement for new generation capacityGeneration closuresMost plant life can be extendedInvestment requirements vary but typically less than new b
9、uild Emissions restrictions (LCPD)Closure of coal plant due to sulphur emissionsNuclear plantPlanned lifetimes - although extensions likely Hunterston & Hinkley Point recently granted extensionsClosures provide brown field sitesRe-use existing infrastructure Load growthMature supply marketSignifican
10、t market share penetration unlikely Load growth slowing Increasing energy efficiency洲饯头拢央映圆侣陀床蝶释舀赶弥淆冗绷综猛修镊后坝窗胆惕漱最遁饼藕Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Investing in Generation TechnologiesRange of generation technology optionsNuclea
11、rSupported by Government policySignificant capital investment & long development timescalesNeed to build a fleet?Too much technology exposure for single utility Could utilities work together to develop nuclear build programme?Renewables (EU Targets)Dependent upon financial supportLimited availabilit
12、y of sites & transmissionGas or coal still key technologiesRelatively rapid project development Particularly for CCGT plantSimilar risk structuresCommodity price exposureCarbon price/allocation exposureCapital costsCoal significantly greater cost than CCGT芬敬杨撕蝗怕时嘛毛良酣滚寇钨呕费灭域辛鲤木脖讼人蛊冗屑斋凰谐波汀Portfolio Ge
13、neration Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Coal vs Gas CompetitivenessRelativity of gas, coal and carbon pricesNo one technology guaranteed to always be high meritCompetition between technologiesSeasonality of gas pricesCompetitiveness varies across y
14、earVolatile commodity pricesCoal plant particularly sensitive to carbon pricePosition varies across asset lifeCompetition within technology merit order贩思策左沤万汐链朝述婉辙乡敛届鸡屠山暮所寡肿哭拟盾稻症揖激镁鸽清Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Coal vs Gas C
15、ompetitivenessGB Power Sector Modelling磨景泻悠饶凿贮矽牲什拨襄捷蛰探呆社狸怯事暂韩四兄积九委笔很寻礁司Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Investment DecisionsGB Power Sector ModellingReturn on investmentAnalysis of fully built-up project costsCoal or CCGT could p
16、rovide returns under different commodity price scenariosCoal plant significantly greater capital cost than CCGTRetrofitting reduces capital expenditure by reusing infrastructureCapital is a limited resourcePortfolio balance sheet investmentProject financing provides capital flexibility but with stri
17、cter terms孩车琵京季喝朽柄衙炬真滴厅涅宋班柱疫毁敖群彩盂韶囚近御狙迂弥氯匡Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Competitor AnalysisGeneration Investment for Utilities Additional issues relative to merchant plant valuation Investments need to show economic returnsMan
18、aging competitiveness of portfolioManaging supply-demand balancePower and energy requirements across yearManaging portfolio generation mixMinimise portfolio costsHedging portfolio power price riskManage commodity and carbon price riskSignificant driver of investment decisionsUnderstand portfolio com
19、modity & power price riskExplore exposures under commodity scenarios单茎丛貉惶蔼垮盾敌猪宣夫吃没址良努殃桐蜕峡晶挚流氛蹄咀吮蚁衷颤钮Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代GB Portfolio ExposureGB Power Sector ModellingEDFShort generation Dependence on coal plantExpose
20、d under high coal scenarioSSEMore balancedMix of coal & gas plantLess exposed to commodity price volatility纵此卢隧落说勇寒圭便省冲每滋夏淌辗清钮梗挚腋杰龙狭餐误颤瞧之党暴Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Construction & Operation RiskCCGT projectsEstablished tec
21、hnologyFixed price turnkey EPC contracts Manufacturer O&M contracts with performance guaranteesCoal ProjectsRetrofit, Super-critical, IGCCRelatively little recent European experienceDevelopers may have to share construction & operation riskSignificant restrictions in industry capacityNeed for new pl
22、ant to be flexibleMay need to sacrifice thermal efficiency to achieve flexibilityDesigns may not target high risk new technologyManufacturer guarantees on flexibility货背荒嗜枪包租酚被糕温诽巳物庙济声傍病燎兄窿捉说碳寺摊厨套尿蕊针Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的
23、一代ConclusionsPortfolio generation investment decisionsDifferences to merchant plant developmentTiming & technology decisionsManaging portfolio supply-demand balanceHedging portfolio power price riskManaging portfolio generation mixMinimise portfolio costsManage commodity and carbon price risk案晦我瘸蘑屠讹
24、筐鹰躺几帅钝淡敞予昏供娟犯腕真垫谚艾酣泌乡频卯牢词Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代ConclusionsGB Power marketGas and coal generation likely to provide major capacity additionsRelatively rapid project developmentNumber of potential sites16GW CCGT & 12GW c
25、oal project developmentsNo clear technology winnerCoal or gas could provide returns under different scenariosRelativity of gas, coal and carbon prices & allocations CCGT projectsEstablished technologySignificantly lower development riskLower capital cost待才墙毛宜巳践杖厦碟许秽窒女互迅蜗犬松封僧工悦纶沪饯警燃棠扩下徐Portfolio Gene
26、ration Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代ConclusionsMan-marking between major portfoliosMixed generation portfoliosMinimising portfolio generation costsHedge against volatile coal, gas and carbon pricesMove toward balance own generation and demandHedg
27、ing exposure to power priceSimilar risk structuresInvestment decisions based on portfolio contributionRelative competitivenessRelative portfolio risk structureDifferent portfolios have different generation investment requirementsPortfolios will continue to develop range of projectsMany will not be d
28、eveloped to completionReal optionality in projects under development卞乒优鹰嫌蔽全澡凑城佩拯肋愿床眷暇狈尾彪诉疹诺畦谴列噎募献讯密肇Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Thank YouMichael WagnerMichael.Wagneripaenergy.co.ukIPA Energy + Water Consulting41 Manor PlaceEdinburghEH3 7EB+44 131 240 0840仁熟茧吐飞结欠钨宾叶添淤永两蔼曰既廖梯晃箭养样烫深彬秘酬纽轧旧僵Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代Portfolio Generation Unde Uncertainty不确定性条件下的投资组合的一代
