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1、Tools and TechniquesHandbookAcknowledgment: During the first years of my professional career I had the pleasure of working with many excellent professionals at Arthur Andersen. It is because of their hard work and dedication of advancing knowledge that this document was prepared. So I feel it is som
2、ewhat ashamed to see this document go to waste. Therefore, I have decided to make it available for students enrolled in Module 2 of my Excellence in Financial Management Program. This document is made possible by the folks at Arthur Andersen and I do not take any credit for this Tools and Techniques
3、 Handbook. Matt H. Evans Key QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesPorters 5 ForcesWhat are the key market drivers ?SWOTWhat are the top-line factors affecting the issue at hand ? Growth Share (BCG) MatrixWhat industries or secto
4、rs should we be in ?Product Life CycleWhat stage of the product cycle are we at ?EOS : ROS RMSDoes size matter ?EOS : Learning CurveWhat are the benefits of scale or experience ?ROS / RONAHow well are we using our assets ? Value DisciplinesWhat type of possible strategies are there in this market ?H
5、appy LineWhere are we over-satisfying our customers ?Conversion WaterfallWhere do we lose potential customers ?SWOTWhat are the top-line factors affecting the issue at hand ? Pareto Curve (“80:20”)What matters ?Value Map (“Mekko”)What are the various segments and sub-segments ?.Value ChainWhere do o
6、ur core competencies reside ?Weighted Column MakerWhich are the most profitable competitors in absolute terms ?Share Gain LineWho has been gaining market share ?KPC CombsWhat are the main purchasing criteria, and how do we fare ?Harvey BallsWhat is the best way to display “soft” quantitative data ?Q
7、uotesWhat is the best way to display qualitative data ?LollipopsCan I come up with creative data displays of my own ?Channel MapsWhat is the relative importance of various routes to market ?Conceptual MapsHow can I simply structure a set of data before analysing it ?Forces at WorkWhat are the forces
8、 at work ?Crocodile ChartCan I come up with creative data displays of my own too ?ParfaitWhat is the easiest way to display market growth ?Logic TreeHow does one organise the research ?Process MapsWhat are the key steps ?Sanity ChecksDoes this number make sense ?Top-down EstimationHow can I estimate
9、 a sub-set ?One-Off InterviewsWhat are the main issues with one-off interviews ?Interview ProgrammesWhat are the main issues with interview programmes ?Focus GroupsWhat are the main issues with organising focus groups ?ClusteringHow can I group people by preferences ?Factorial AnalysisHow can I grou
10、p peoples preferences in broader sets ?Desk SourcesWhere can I find secondary data ?Usual AABC SourcesWhat are the usual AABC sources ?Table of Contents3.AnalysisTechniques1.StrategyConcepts2.KeyVisualTools4.SourcesKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining
11、 ModulesTools and TechniquesTable of Contents1. Strategy Concepts Key QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesPorters 5 ForcesWhatarethekeymarketdrivers?Porters model is a great check list when starting to describe an industry. It
12、helps you organise your research and, more importantly, provides a good framework in which to present your findings.Start with top-line list of the main players in each of the 5 boxes- key competitors- key suppliers- key customers- most likely entrants- most likely substitution Carry out lit. search
13、 on the names compiled above Gather all relevant articles in one binder “lift” most common comments into a word document Organize results into 5 boxes SummarizeKeep a good balance between words and data“Force quantification” of words. For example if you read “customer power is likely to continue gro
14、wing at broadly the same rate” try and find relevant data and write “customer power is likely to continue growing, keeping price hikes on historical level of 2%p.a.”Think about Newton and Archimedes (every proactive force creates its own reactive force) and try capturing both the net effect and the
15、2 opposing forcesGround model in the analytical process: what further research would be required to conclude on a given trend?Market-I Threat of New EntrantsPorters5forcesmap Threat of Substitution Bargaining power of Customers Bargaining power of Suppliers Rivalry among CompetitorsKey QuestionTypic
16、al ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesSWOTWhatarethetop-linefactorsaffectingtheissueathand?The SWOT box is a less formal , more intuitive version of Porters model . It provides a good framework in which to lay out initial findings - and can b
17、e used to start a Logic Tree (see below)Self-explanatoryMany issues are both an opportunity and a threat, or a strength and a weakness !Do not sit on the fence; you will revisit this analysis in due course but start by choosing a box for every phenomenon observed / anticipatedCompetitor-IStrengthsOp
18、portunitiesWeaknessesThreatsSWOTanalysisofChelseaFCExperienced playersKey real estate location“Cultured” football methods shared across the squadMidfield playLittle development opportunities for the youth teamsOld players more accident proneLow scoringInexperienced managerAttract further key interna
19、tional namesUmbrella branding (internationally recognized name)Still backed by private investorsMUFC and Arsenal keep getting biggerLeeds, Liverpool, etc back in contention for N 3 spotKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesLo
20、wHighGrowth Share (BCG) MatrixWhichindustriesorsectorsshouldwebein?The Share-Growth matrix is a simple matrix devised to visualise multiple investment alternatives. It helps you compares relative attractiveness of different shares vs. growth situations. It requires an Excel sheet and the Bubble func
21、tion in the Chart Menu.Compile competitor or division market shares in their relevant marketGather market growth rates for each industry or segmentPlotSplit chart in 4 quadrants : Dog; Question Mark; Star; and MilkDo not worry exceedingly about accuracy of positioning of a given data point in the ma
22、trix but focus rather on relative positioningEach quadrant of the matrix corresponds to a generic term, describing the strategic opportunities available to a company or division present there:-bottom-left quadrant, “dog”, small market share of a below par growth industry, little opportunity-top-left
23、 , “question mark”, small market share of an above par growth industry, good opportunity-top-right, “star”, big market share of above par growth industry, great opportunity-bottom-right, “cow”, big market share at below par growth, superb position but little opportunity , time to milk !Original BCG
24、had the x-axis with RMS (relative market share) and was plotted with leaders on the left rather than the rightMarket-IFishfoodservicesegments,Share&growth,1998SegmentFORECAST growth(%)Restaurants0102030405060%Fish & ChipsServicesClubsPubsHotelsEducationHealth Catering-2,0%0,0%2,0%4,0%6,0%8,0%10,0%12
25、,0%Segment share (% of market)HighLowKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesProduct Life CycleWhatstageofthecycleareweat?The Product Life Cycle is a concept devised to keep in mind that relative competitive advantages can ebb
26、and flow. It helps you position competitors or industries against one another and against a time line. Works better on a theoretical level rather than with lots of data Find start date of timeline (i.e. first recorded mention of the technology, the product, the industry, etc)Define a vertical axis (
27、i.e. sales, penetration levels, etc)Create Excel table with measurement records over timePlot Tip : it is usually quicker - and as illustrative to plot 3 or 4 milestones than it is plotting the whole lineMarket-IIMeasure or phenomenon(ie sales in , penetration in %, etc)Time line of phenomenon(in ye
28、ars, or months, or days, etc)ProductlifecyclecurveKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesThe ROS-RMS is a simple chart displaying together relative size of competitors and profitability levels. It requires an Excel table and t
29、he Bubble function in the Chart Menu. The parallel band lines need be added afterwardsEOS : ROS - RMSDefine list of competitors to be included, and order annual reportsCreate Excel table with last years sales + last 3 years profitsPlotAnnotate competitors with incomplete and / or misguiding data, su
30、ch as less than 3 years of profits; latest year of sales is not last year; finer data available includes other divisions, not just sales and profits of relevant segments, etcStrip down competitor sales to relevant segmentsEstimate comparative profitability of remaining segmentsOrder annual reports i
31、n advance : 2 weeks lead-time for foreign companiesDont forget 3 years average for ROS Start plotting data you have : partial is better than nothingDo not hesitate to call competitor directly - after clearance from case team manager - to gain idea of segment profitability (ie “higher than average of
32、 company”, etc)Doessizematter?0,010,101,0010,00ROS-RMSIndustryARMS (log)ROS (last 3 years, %)0,010,101,0010,00-20-15-10-505101520-2525%-20-15-10-505101520-2525%RMS (log)ROS (last 3 years, %)ROS-RMSIndustryBCompetitor-I&IIKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTr
33、aining ModulesTools and TechniquesThe Learning Curve is a very simple concept: it is the trend line of a set of data where the Y axis represents the cost/unit of the X axis. It requires an Excel table and the Scatter function in Chart MenuEOS : Learning CurveDefine the exact value chain dimension wh
34、ose learning curve you want to display (manufacturing, purchasing, etc) Choose the number of data points you need (5 will result in rather illustrative outcome, 10 - 12 will give more confidence)Gather data on cost/unit from client for relevant objects (eg: get exact capacity and cost/tonne for clie
35、nt in 4 plants)Interview competitors relevant director for missing data using smart approach (eg: by how much would your cost/unit drop if you doubled sizeCareful! There are 2 versions of the “learning curve”. One is really about learning, the other really about scaleIn the first case, the X axis re
36、presents the cumulative N of units produced to date and the Y axis the cost/unit over time (A typical example is plane production. Few units produced per year, and the cost of each unit keeps coming down as assemblers get better at it with experience)In the second case, the X axis represents the siz
37、e of a given process (eg. plant capacity) and the Y axis the cost/unit for this process in various plants.Tip: manufacturing directors are not often approached for market research and thus tend to talk a lotWhatarethebenefitsofscaleorexperience?Manufacturing Capacity (kTonnes, 1996, Log scale)Cost p
38、er Tonne (excl. materials, 1993, k/Tonne)Manufacturingscalecurve,Biscuitsindustry,1997A 10 times increase in scale represents a theoretical cost improvement of 275p.T. Some of this, however, would be offset by increased distribution and other costsR2=65%0,00,20,40,60,81,01,21 00010 000100 000 Broxbu
39、rn LinkopingDurangoLauragaisX1X2HattonAshbyGyorMaastrichtJyvas HyvaCarlisleDortmundGenoaTynesideCompetitor-IIKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesROS / RONAHowwellareweusingourassets?The ROS-RONA is a simple chart displaying
40、 together asset turn and profitability of a set of competitors. It requires an Excel table and the Bubble function in the Chart Menu. The RONA iso-curves need be added afterwardsCheck with manager the definition of net assets that will be usedDefine list of competitors to be included, and order annu
41、al reportsCreate Excel table with last years sales + last 3 years profits + last 3 years net assetsPlot, and create RONA iso-curvesAnnotate competitors with incomplete and / or misguiding data, such as different definition of net assets, less than 3 years of profits; finer data available includes ot
42、her divisions, not just sales and profits of relevant segments, etcStrip down competitor sales to relevant segmentsEstimate comparative profitability of remaining segmentsOrder annual reports in advance : 2 weeks lead-time for foreign companiesDont forget 3 years average for ROSStart plotting data y
43、ou have : partial is better than nothingLet manager know early if agreed definition of net assets creates data problem - there are many possible definitions and another one might make things easier for you without affecting usefulness of informationDo not hesitate to call competitor directly - after
44、 clearance from case team manager - to gain idea of segment profitability (ie “higher than average of company”, etc)MajorretailersROS-RONA,UK,1993-95 RONA (%)70%50%30%10%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%1,8%20%012345678910ROS (last 3 years, %)Asset TurnM & S Boots KingfisherJohn MenziesWH Smith House of Fraser
45、 Body Shop Competitor-I&IIKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesValue DisciplinesWhattypesofpossiblestrategiesarethereinthismarket?The Value Discipline model helps you position competitors or industries against one another ac
46、cording to 3 possible main generic strategies. Works better on a theoretical level rather than with lots of data If without data :Define list of competitors to be includedPosition each competitor on map based on available evidence (lit.search, annual reports, brokers reports, gutfeel, etc)If using d
47、ata :Create Excel table with score of each competitor against each of the 3 dimensionsPlot data using the Radar function in the Chart MenuCompetitor-IProduct LeadershipRollsDaewooOperational ExcellenceCustomer IntimacyBMWLadaVauxhallValuedisciplines,Carindustry,UK,1999Key QuestionTypical ProcessTric
48、ks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesCustomer “Happy Line”Whereareweover-satisfyingourcustomers?The Customer “Happy Line” is a complex, but powerful concept that helps illustrate the areas where we under-deliver on customers expectations and those where w
49、e over-deliver. It requires an Excel table and the Scatter function in the Chart Menu. The Line needs be added afterwardsCreate Excel table with outcome of customer interview programme : average score given to each criteria and score of each competitor against the criteriaPlot client score, with X a
50、xis as criteria scoreSet X axis so that Min and Max equal the scores of respectively the lowest and highest ranking customer purchasing criteriaReverse X axis so that Max is to the leftSet Y axis so that Min and Max equal respectively the lowest and highest scores obtained by one of the relevant com
51、petitors against any criteriaAdd Happy lineTip : set Y axis by choosing a relevant set of competitors for which to obtain lowest and highest scores (you do not want to benchmark the client against no-hopers in the industry)Happy Line goes from Top left of chart to the middle, and then horizontally t
52、o the rightCustomer-I456789104,555,566,577,588,59KPC Score (i.e. relative importance of criteria to Customers)GoodImportantSecondaryOur score against each KPC (1 to 10)AverageBadCriticalHappyLine,CompanyX,IndustyY,1999Key QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTrain
53、ing ModulesTools and TechniquesConversion WaterfallWheredowelosepotentialcustomers?The Conversion Waterfall is a concept that helps you summarise the findings of a customer interview programme along 6 major measures. It requires an Excel table and the Bar function in the Chart Menu. Can work as well
54、 on a preliminary, data-less levelCreate Excel table with outcome of customer interview programme : share of the sample population that meets the successive measuresPlotSelf-explanatoryCustomer-I0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%AwarenessKnowledgeLikingPreferenceVisitPurchaseFranceGermany% of populat
55、ionConversionwaterfall,RetailerX,France&Germany,1997Key QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesTable of Contents2. Key Visual Tools Key QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools
56、 and TechniquesPareto Curve (“80:20”)Whatmatters?The Pareto Curve is a simple and powerful concept : it posits that quite regularly 20% of a given population will account for 80% of this populations actions with a third party (ie sales, purchases, etc). It requires an Excel table and the Scatter fun
57、ction in the Chart Menu*Lets assume we are drawing a Pareto of a clients customersGather client total sales, and sales by customerRank customers in column by decreasing salesCalculate weight of each customer as a % of total clients salesSet-up column with cumulative share of customer salesPlot scatt
58、er of cumulative sales column* : instead of using the scatter function you can use the Bar function, Select Data series, and set Options / Gap to “0”Tip : do not despair if you only have sales of the Top 50 customers (or of the Top 50 suppliers) . Find out how many customers (or suppliers) make up t
59、he total list and posit that each of the smaller ones has the same - tiny - weight. You can now draw a pseudo-Pareto where the top right hand part of the curve will effectively be a near-flat straight lineCustomer-I&II0%20%40%60%80%100%0102030405060708090100Customers (Ranked by decreasing Sales)Cumu
60、lative % of Sales20% of a given population accounts for 80% of this populations actions (eg. 20% of a customer base account for 80% of sales)ParetoRuleCompanyX,CustomerPareto,1998Key QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesValue Ma
61、ps (“Mekko”)Whatarethevarioussegmentsandsub-segments?A Mekko is a visually simple but analytically complex tool that helps you display in one soleslide 2 successive cuts at a data set (eg market size by product category and by product, industry sales by sector and by competitor, etc). It requires a
62、special input tool; the “Mekko Maker”OtherPayment ProtectionGeneralinsurancemarket,UK,1998100%806040200020406080100%Commercial PropertyPersonal PropertyPrivate ComprehensivePrivate Non-ComprehensiveFleetCommercial VehiclesCorporateOtherEmployers LiabilityPublic/General LiabilityPersonal vs commercia
63、l split for sector Sector as per cent of UK marketProperty 8.2bnMotor 6.8bnAccident& Health 2.7bnPecuniary Loss2.3bn Liability 1.9bnTotal Market = 21.9bnPersonal= PIExtendedWarranty Consequential LossDomestic MortgageCreate Excel table formatted as follows : - one segment by column - rank segments b
64、y decreasing size - each sub-segment of a given segment in the successive rows of the relevant column - rank sub-segments by decreasing size Open “Mekko Maker”Copy Excel table into “Mekko Maker”Tip : use only absolute measure of size (ie ), not market shares or other relative measures / ratiosFor cl
65、arity of reading segments of size inferior to 5% of total market size should be grouped into an “other” segmentLikewise, all sub-segments of size inferior to 3% of total size of a given segment should be grouped into an “other” sub-segmentUse shading & patternsMarket-I&IIKey QuestionTypical ProcessT
66、ricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesValue ChainWheredoourcorecompetenciesreside?The Value Chain model helps you highlight for different competitors within a given industries the competencies each one has developed to succeed. Works better on a theoret
67、ical level rather than with lots of data FinanceHRTechnologyLogisticsManufingMarketingSalesPurchasingIdentify the main competencies in the industryCreate generic industry arrow with support functions and operating functionsGather from desk research (annual reports, articles, etc) and one-off intervi
68、ews the area of the value chain where each competitor chooses to focus (“core competencies”)Do not hesitate to alter the arrow aboveOnly principle to follow for visual : - horizontal division separate “support” functions from operating ones- key operating processes are split vertically This principl
69、e will justify treating different functions differently by industry (e.g. technology is a support competency in most industries, but a key operating one for a software company) Tip : an organisation chart is often a good starting point to understand emphasis attached to the competency Competitor-IVa
70、luechainKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesA Weighted Column chart is a simple tool that helps you display at once both competitor profitability level and overall industry profits. It requires a special input tool; the “We
71、ighted Column Maker”Weighted Column MakerShare of Market, by CompetitorROS(last 3 years,%)Industryprofitability,IndustryX,1995-98Weighted Average = 10.0%-10%-505101520%020406080100%Comp 1Comp 2Etc Define list of competitors to be included, and order annual reportsCreate Excel table with last years s
72、ales + last 3 years profitsPlotAnnotate competitors with incomplete and / or misguiding data, such as less than 3 years of profits; latest year of sales is not last year; finer data available includes other divisions, not just sales and profits of relevant segments, etcStrip down competitor sales to
73、 relevant segmentsEstimate comparative profitability of remaining segmentsOrder annual reports in advance : 2 weeks lead-time for foreign companiesDont forget 3 years average for ROSStart plotting data you have : partial is better than nothingDo not hesitate to call competitor directly - after clear
74、ance from case team manager - to gain idea of segment profitability (ie “higher than average of company”, etc)Plot Weighted Average industry profitability line based on information you have, but indicate what total % of industry sales you have profitability data forCompetitor-I&IIWhicharethemostprof
75、itablecompetitorsinabsoluteterms?Key QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesShare Gain LineWhohasbeengainingmarketshare?The Share Gain Line is a visually simple tool - if a bit difficult to grasp at first - that helps you display
76、relative share performance of competitors in the market context. It requires an Excel table and the Bubble function in the Chart Menu. The “Zero-gain” line needs be added afterwardsGather historical market data and compile market growth for each marketDefine list of competitors to be included by mar
77、ketGather historical competitors sales data and compile competitors sales growthCreate excel table with market size Year Zero (Yo), market size now (Yn), competitors sales Yo and competitor sales YnPlotDraw line bisecting the two axesAlways write meaning of bisecting line on the chart: above line =
78、gaining sharebelow line = losing shareTip : for multi-segments on one graph all the bubbles in a given market should be on the same vertical lineSharemovementsbycompetitor,Music,Cards&Videoretail,UK,1995-1999-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Total Market Growth Competitors Growth (% ov
79、er 4 years)VideoCardsMusicCompetitorsgaining shareCompetitorslosing shareWH SmithBlockbusterDisney StoreWoolworthsJ. MenziesDisney StorePaperchaseBootsWH SmithJ. MenziesWoolworthsOur PriceWH SmithCompetitor-I&IIKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining Mod
80、ulesTools and TechniquesKPC CombsWhatarethemainpurchasingcriteria,andhowdowefare?The KPC Combs is a visually simple tool - if a bit difficult to grasp at first - that helps you display jointly both the importance of customer purchasing criteria and the ranking of competitors against those criteria.
81、It requires an Excel table and the Bar + Line function in the Chart MenuCreate Excel table with outcome of customer interview programme : average score given to each criteria and score of each competitor against the criteriaPlotYou can plot both the Criteria and competitors score using the same scal
82、e : draw chart as a Line chart, select the Criteria line; go into Chart Options and select a Bar Do not forget to set minimum and maximum of Y axis to values of the range offered (eg from 1 to 10, not 0 to 10)Tip : for a large interview programme, the dispersion of the average scores will be minimal
83、. You can increase visibility of differences by setting Y values more finely on either side of the average (eg display from 3 to 8, or 4 to 7, instead of from 1 to 10)Customer-I&IICriteriaComp 1Comp 2Comp 3Client12345678910Score (1 to 10)Criteria 1Criteria 2Criteria 3Criteria 4Criteria 5Criteria 6Ke
84、y Purchasing CriteriaKeypurchasecriteria(KPC)comb,IndustryX,Germany,1999Key QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesHarvey BallsWhatisthebestwaytodisplay“soft”quantitativedata?Harvey Balls are a technique that helps you summarise t
85、he results of a benchmarking exercise where the item benchmarked obey different metrics. It needs to be hand drawn. Can work as well on a preliminary, data-less levelSupply chain efficiencyCustomer retention levelStaff utilisation levelEtc .CompetitorsKPIWH SmithJohn MenziesBootsWoolworthsetcCompeti
86、torbenchmarksummarytable,Mixedretailers,UK,1999Select dimensions to be included in tableWrite down a code for each dimension (ie what score justifies a full ball, what deserve half, what is a quarter, what is zero)If wanting a “Total” row, give a weighting to each dimension and calculate total for e
87、ach columnHand-drawTip : Write code before filling the table, as filling a Harvey Ball table usually throws open at least one implication that wasnt foreseen with just the base dataCompetitor-IKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and Tech
88、niquesQuotesWhatisthebestwaytodisplayqualitativedata?Quotes are a systematically under-used technique for displaying qualitative data in a powerful way.Create on an on-going basis a database / binder of comments with good quote value Write comprehensive notes during one-off interviewsManage a good f
89、iling system when carrying outlit. searchQuote value rests in the nature of comment heard or read and / or in the authority of the sourceFormat all quotes in a consistent manner, preferably as aboveTry and get a number in every other quote, ie :select the quotes on the basis of their number content
90、(ex-post)force interviewee to quantify qualitative statements (ex-ante)Customer-I“ There has bee a trend away from sport shoes and towards “work” boots worn as streetwear. This has been going on at the rate of 2-3% p.a. over the last 3 years, is getting stronger now, and is no longer just a teenage
91、fashion”- J. Swartz, CEO, Timberland“Consumer shift towards good value and cheaper shoes, together with the availability of imports from the Far East and economically weaker countries have intensified price pressure and competition in the market”- Euromonitor“Camel is the best selling boot in German
92、y, with in excess of 5% market share”- Marketing Director, Camel UKKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesLollipopsCanIcomeupwithcreativedatadisplaysofmyown?Lollipops are a technique that helps you display in one sole slide a
93、large number of detailed information across a large selection of objects (competitors, products, etc). It requires an Excel table and the Bubble function in the Chart MenuCreate Excel table with all the data required : one object / criteria per row (eg competitor) and one measure per box vertically
94、(eg plant capacity of competitors plant)PlotA Lollipop chart is simply a creative answer to a regular problem : how to display a large number of data points, the detail of which is necessary but less important that the overall picture it paintsA “Mekko” is another creative way to solve the problem d
95、escribed aboveAny solution you may come up with that solves your display issue has got to be a good one !Tip1 : always try creative solution on paper before launching into big Excel manipulationTip2 : remember that a nicely laid out Excel table is always a more powerful visual than a cumbersome grap
96、h .N/APlantsizes&totalcapacitybycompetitor,Storageproductsindustry,Europe,1998PolypalConstructorSchaeferDexionMecaluxNedconMetaFeralcoTixitGallerEsmenaStowApexMagistaTravhydroAremsaMauserArbitecPlant size (k tonnes),010203040506070kTotal Capacity(k tonnes) 60ktonnesUKEDDUKDDDUKBUKBENLNLDSFSNCompetit
97、orKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesChannel MapsEnd-CustomersProductsChannels22.3bn7.0bn4.6bn6.3bn4.4bn3.2bn7.3bn0.5bn0.8bn18.2bn15.3bn7.6bnConstruction Materials Manufacturers/ImportersBuilders MerchantsDirectDIY Stores,
98、 Superstores and Hardware shops, Garden Centres etcBuilders/ContractorsHome CustomersAdditional Products*Distributors/StockistsSpecialist Merchants/ Factors WholesalersGather on one page all the data you have about the industry sales (manufacturer sales, retail sales, wholesale sales), and organize
99、data into 3 tiers : products (or manufacturers), channels, and end-customers (or retailers)Firstly, draw the product and end-customer horizontal barsSecondly, draw the “direct” flow between these 2 bars (on the left of the above map), and infer from this a MSP to RSP ratioThirdly, split this ratio i
100、n two to “body double” the MSP to WSP and WSP to RSP ratios, and “convert” your whole data set in the relevant unit you are using Finally, draw a first map, and iterate. Be sure to use the same units throughout, 100 of manufacturer sales can be exactly the same as 200 of retailer sales if RSP (retai
101、l selling price) = 2xMSP (manufacturer selling price) in thi industry .Tip : when possible volumes are a better measure than values (as stay the same throughout the flow - normally)Market-IWhatistherelativeimportanceofvariousroutestomarket?Channel Maps are a technique that helps you display the comp
102、lexity of various routes to market whilst quantifying their relative importance. There isnt a software available to generate them : they need to be hand drawnChannelmap,Constructionmaterials,UK,1999Key QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and
103、 TechniquesConceptual MapsHowcanIsimplystructureasetofdatabeforeanalysingit?Conceptual Maps are basic techniques that help you breakdown complex issues into sub-sets so as to better either lay out the thinking, plan the research or map the results. They do not require intricate softwares; just a rul
104、er, a pencil, and an eraser .Conceptual Maps come in various shapes. The mother of all conceptual is the “2 x 2” Matrix, where various objects are plotted in 4 boxes : dimensions 1 & 2 with sub-sets “low” and “high”A Conceptual Cross provides another way to think about how objects can be classified
105、against 2 other dimensionsThe 2x2 Matrix is the most useful consulting tool ever The Conceptual Cross is marginally less helpful. It can come handy when you find that the objects you have plotted in a matrix all fall on the diagonal line : a 45 rotation of Matrix dimensions gives you a Cross mapCust
106、omer-IKeyconceptualmapsDimension 1Dimension 2998811LowHighLowHigh3 36 6“2x2”Matrix6 6998811Dimension 3Dimension 43 3ConceptualCrossKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesForces at WorkWhataretheforcesatwork?The Forces at Work
107、visual is simple version of Porters model . It highlights complexity rather than simplify / organise it in the way Porter and the SWOT box do.Self-explanatoryDo it either at the beginning of a case - or at the end to illustrate complexity of forces at workDuring case work, try and organize these for
108、ces either in Porters 5 Forces model, or in SWOT boxN/AThreat of cheap importsfrom AsiaShortening product lifecycles in fashionClothing manufacturersshifting production from West to East and SouthEuropePrice convergence between markets driven by the EuroConvergence in national tastesacross EuropeImp
109、rovements in thespeed and cost oflogistics across EuropeGrowth of international customers, e.g. Nike & BenettonCustomers demandingshorter lead timesClothing manufacturingshifting productionoverseasKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and
110、TechniquesCrocodile ChartCanIcomeupwithcreativedatadisplaysofmyowntoo?Crocodile Charts are a technique that helps you display in one sole slide how the issue you are studying narrows down to your specific area of focus. It requires an Excel table and the Bubble function in the Chart MenuCreate Excel
111、 table with all the data requiredPlot 4 barsAdd connecting linesTip : it is easier to add lines across all bars and delete unnecessary one upon finalizing the chart than the other way roundN/A0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%GlobalContinentalNationalRegionalLandUKNorthSouthEuropeSeaCrocodilechart,Oi
112、lreserves,1995Key QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesParfaitWhatistheeasiestwaytodisplaymarketgrowth?A Parfait is a visually simple tool that helps you display jointly both the relative size of market segments and their relati
113、ve growth. It requires an Excel table and the Area function in the Chart MenuCreate Excel table with all the data requiredPlotDo not forget to add growth data to the right of the chartN/AUKClothingMarket1994-98Marketsize(1998,m)5001 0001 5002 0002 5003 00019941995199619971998Annual Growth10%3%2%2%Wo
114、menswearMenswearSportswearChildrenswearKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesTable of Contents3. Analysis Techniques Key QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and Techn
115、iquesLogic TreeHowdoesoneorganisetheresearch?One half of Structured Thinking, the Logic Tree turns the initial client brief into a set of discrete questions. Each Logic Tree has a “twin” in the shape of the Research Tree. Once the key questions have been established it is usually clear which researc
116、h method is the most appropriateWrite “top of tree” as a positive statement answering the client questionCreate sub-branches by splitting the top of the tree into its natural components (writing a good Logic Tree is an art and a technique that one acquires with experience)The sub-branches should obe
117、y the MECE method (Mutually Exclusive Completely Exhaustive), i.e.all the sub-branches taken together must exhaustively support the branch above, and each sub-branch must deal with something different from the other sub-branchesThe MECE methods implies that - if one of the sub-branches is false then
118、 the top of the tree must be false - if all the sub-branches are true then the top of the tree must be trueA positive statement is more difficult than a negative statement, and thus gives client more confidence on strength of our answerTip : some first level “split” of the logic tree occur rather re
119、gularly. Typical first level branches are : - Sales, Margins and Costs - Customers, Competitors and CostTip : do the research tree only once finished with logic tree (on 80:20 basis). Indeed some research branches can address several branch of the logic tree at once N/AI gather data to informthe app
120、licabilityof each optionI can find a solutionto my sockless stateI can find another sock in the flat I can getan entirely new pairI can compensate forwhat I dont haveI can tracethe othersockI can traceanotherpairI can buy anew pairin timeI can haveonesentI can alterclothingto hidesocklessnessI canju
121、stifysocklessnessResearchinside the flatResearchoutside the flatInquire aboutsocklessnessCheckmy room (under the bed, otherdrawers)AskflatmatesChecklaundryroomCheckthere aresock shopson the wayCheckwho iscomingCall toget themto bringoneCheck withpartner thatsocks are neededAsk fora good jokeThinkof
122、how to turn it intoa statementResearchTreeLogicTreeKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesProcess MapsWhatarethekeysteps?Process Maps are a technique that helps you group a set of research and/or action points into broad seque
123、ntial stepsSelf-explanatoryTry to aim for 4 to 7 steps to keep the process map usefulN/ADeal OriginationBidding, Negotiation & ClosingOwningExit (Trade Sale or Flotation)Strategy developmentPost-acquisitiondisputesMarket Study / strategic due diligence-External validation-Ammunition for negotiations
124、-Black holes checkResolve competition and regulatory issuesValuation analysisBusiness planpreparationMarket study for potential prospectusOutside in view for potential buyers-Synergy valuation for negotiationsTarget identificationAssessment of potential post-deal synergiesKey QuestionTypical Process
125、Tricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesSanity Checks are basic techniques that help you assess the viability of a data point obtained through desk research or one-off interviews. This do not require anything else than careful consideration .Sanity Check
126、sDoesthisnumbermakesense?See above & Generic Research Most important test is materiality test, i.e. how different are the various estimates obtained ?Tip : choose a different color - red for examples - for the body doubles in an Excel worksheetConfidenceRangingFeel RightTestMaterialityTestImpactCrit
127、icalityTestBody DoublingNarrowing a variety of N fromdifferent sourcesdown to a rangewithin which you are fairly confidentthe true answer isto be found(“confidenceinterval”)MaindatasanitychecksConnecting dataobtained on esotericissues to moreeasilyunderstandabledimensions andassessingcredibilityof i
128、mplicationPutting in perspective thedifferences between the various estimatesobtained typicallyby expressingbiggest delta as %of average valueEstablish whether the differentestimates obtainedlead to the sameoutcome withregard to thequestionyou are reallyaddressingChoosing one unique data pointas the
129、 estimate you will go withpending further informationGenericResearchKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesTop - Down EstimationHowcanIestimateasub-set?The Top-Down estimation is a method that consists in shaving off parts of
130、something you know (eg. market size) until you are left with the rump (eg. a segment size) that you were trying to estimate in the first place Gather all the available data on the market you try to estimate as well as data on broader market setsMake a list of the “cuts” for which you have data (eg.
131、you have data by channel and by products but not by channel & product)Split the starting object into sub-set by applying the cut for which you have least data (eg. you know market share of products in retail but not in wholesale, thus share by channel beforeyou share by product)The outcome of a top-
132、down estimation is visually complex to illustrateThe best method is to create a set of 100% vertical bars and one by one turn to “no border & no area” the boxes that you dont want to see appearingThink Rubiks cube: you will probably have to try 2 or 3 different sequencing of the cuts before you arri
133、ve at a satisfactory outcome0200400600Total Fish MarketShare of RetailShare of FrozenShare of non-Ready MealsShare of Own LabelOur MarketOwn LabelNaturalCoatedReady MealsBrandedFrozenChilledFreshCannedRetailFood service8001 0001 2001 4001 6001 8002 000Market value (m, RSP, 1998)GenericResearchOwn-la
134、bel,non-readymeals,frozenfishmarkettopdownestimate,1998Key QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesOne-Off InterviewsWhatarethemainissueswithone-offinterviews?Check-list for One-Off Interviews. Use framework below before proceeding
135、 with interviewsSee above & Generic Research moduleBe clear exactly which questions needto be answered Choose the appropriate method Contact the correct peopleDefine your objectives for the meeting up frontEnsure you come out with the specific answers you requirePreparationContact & PersuasionExecut
136、ionInterpretation of ResultsWrapping Up Anticipation of AnswersBe prompt in delivering high quality feedbackRemember who has paid the bill!Be flexible but focused on the answerPrioritise questionsBe prepared for obstructive remarks from interviewees Write clear and comprehensive meeting notes Be pol
137、ite, especially to secretariesBe rigorous in using secretaries where possibleWrite a professional but deferential fax Donotlie!One-offInterviewsCheck-listGenericResearchGo through the check-list again & again !Tip : always keep in mind the ANSWERS you are expecting and particularly the different SO
138、WHAT that different answers will point toKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesInterview Programme Check-ListInterview ProgrammesWhatarethemainissueswithinterviewprogrammes?Check-list for Interview Programmes. Use framework b
139、elow before proceeding with interviewsSee above & Customer-I moduleGo through the check-list again & again !Tip : always keep in mind the ANSWERS you are expecting and particularly the different SO WHAT that different answers will point toCustomer-IChoose the appropriate method - on the phone - in t
140、he street - mixSelect the best sample - suitable proportion of market - hit rateCreate a questionnaire which is focused on testing the hypothesis - correct questions - questions asked in the correct wayPreparationContact & PersuasionExecutionInterpretation of ResultsWrapping Up Anticipation of Answe
141、rsKeep paper copies of questionnaires at hand ! Only appropriate analysis is carried out (80 : 20)Ensure process is managed effectivelySet-up database and maintain it throughoutTemp performance monitored and data inputed as rapidly as possibleEnsure interviewers are fully briefedPilot questionnaire
142、and re-draft ineffective questionsKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesFocus GroupsWhatarethemainissueswithorganisingfocusgroups?Check-list for Focus Group. Use framework below before proceeding with organising groupsSee Tri
143、cks & TipsIf possible, pre-select to ensure representative cross section by asking key questions on the phoneConfirm details in writing (by fax for speed)Invite up to double the candidates you want unless they are motivated to come - offer cash/other incentive as appropriate as sanctioned by the pro
144、ject manager Think through the timingDraft issues for debate of key questions beforehandStick to the agendaUse flip charts to document contributionsKeep travel to a minimumEnsure venue is appropriately comfortableKeep database as for interview programmes Be prepared!Customer-IVenue and travel arrang
145、ementsAgreeing the plan with the clientMaintaining recordsWhat to take(equipment, props,etc.) Selecting candidatesInvitationsHit rateIncentivesFocussingdebateLogisticsGetting theright peopleOrganising the dayManaging the debateKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output Fo
146、rmatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesClusteranalysis,Storageproductindustry,1998ClusteringHowcanIgrouppeoplebypreferences?Clusturing is a complex technique that helps you group object (eg customers) according to their similarity of preference between a set of dimensions (eg customer purchasing cr
147、iteria). It requires an Excel spreadsheet and a conjoint analysis software, such as SPSSCreate Excel table with detail of customer interview programme : score given to each criteria by each customer (one customer per row, one criteria per column)Import dataset into conjoint analysis software (SPSS o
148、r other)Run Classify Cluster function in Statistics menu of conjoint analysis softwareWrite down N of rows that fall in each clusterGo back to Excel spreadsheet, create Cluster N column to tag each row according to relevant clusterCalculate average criteria score by clusterSpend 3 or 4 hours reading
149、 the conjoint analysis software manual, and practicing on fictitious dataset !A Cluster analysis will start by giving you X clusters for your X customers (fair enough each one is different ). It will then start grouping the two customers with the most similar preferences into a single cluster, leavi
150、ng you with X-1 clusters, etc, until all is one big cluster. The real N of clusters in the population is usually obtained by trial and error, thus Tip : Never erase the content of a given Cluster N column when tagging rows in Excel a discarded solution usually turns out to be the correct one in the
151、end ! Customer-I&IIYClusterXZClusterClusterA lotLittleA lotAverage AverageAverage A lotSpeedofserviceExclusivityofoperationsAll-roundsupportKey QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesFactorial AnalysisKey QuestionTool DescriptionT
152、ypical Output FormatTraining ModulesHowcanIgrouppeoplespreferencesinbroadersets?Factorial Analysis is a complex technique that helps you group a large number of dimensions of choice (eg 14 customer purchasing criteria) into the relevant, fewer factors that underpin clusters preferences. It requires
153、an Excel spreadsheet and a conjoint analysis software, such as SPSSCreate Excel table with detail of customer interview programme : score given to each criteria by each customer (one customer per row, one criteria per column)Import dataset into conjoint analysis software (SPSS or other)Run Data Redu
154、ction Factor function in Statistics menu of conjoint analysis softwareCheck resulting plot, and iterate if need beSpend 3 or 4 hours reading the conjoint analysis software manual, and practicing on fictitious dataset !A good dataset will always give you a reduction of your X criteria into X/3 or X/4
155、 factors. Trying to fathom what these factors represent can be a notoriously difficult exercise. Ask for helpTip : it is usually easier to understand a factor after having carried out a Cluster analysis (see previous page)Customer-IFactorialanalysis,Storageproductindustry,1998Factor1Speed of service
156、Factor2Exclusivity of operationsFactor3All-round support1.Speedy quotations turnaround time2.Distributor brand3.Choice of payment terms4.Technical support & design assistance5.Speedy & reliable delivery6.Literature with distributor brand/name7.No competing direct sales force8.Complete territorial ex
157、clusivity9.Choice of pricing structures10.Full technical & design digest11.Free contract management facility12.Choice of stock holding policy13.Free & regular training programmes14.Dedicated account managerKeyPurchasingCriteriaFactorsFactor 1 = KPC 1 & 5Factor 2 = KPC 2, 7 & 8Factor 3 = KPC 3, 4, 6,
158、 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 & 14Key QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesTable of Contents4. Sources Key QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesDesk SourcesWherecanIfi
159、ndsecondarydata?Check-list for Desk Sources. Use framework below and create your own portfolio of regular & favourite sourcesSpend 10 minutes laying out the nature and type of the data you are afterSpend 10 minutes writing down the sources where you are likely to encounter each required dataStart ch
160、asing ! Tip : when procuring documents there is always a trade-off between immediacy of availability and cost a well planned research is one that leaves more $ in the case-team dinner pot !Tip2 : it is uncanny how the document you need on D day is the one you thew away on day D-1. Never throw, alway
161、s .Tip3 : other team members will randomly access your file. Do develop a filing system that is easily understandable by all .GenericResearchDeskresearchavenuesofenquirySearch CD-ROMor on-line databases Search theNet Search AABCknowledgebaseSearch businesssourcesProcuredocumentsGo to various librari
162、es- Profound- Datastar- Reuters- Worldscope- etcEg.- FT.com- search engines- etc- annual reports- brokers reports- market reports- etc- City business library- MBS library- etcPure electronicPure paperMix- trade publications- government statistics- etc- Global Best Practices database- etcKey Question
163、Typical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTraining ModulesTools and TechniquesReutersBusinessBriefingNews articles, regulatory news announcements (e.g. latest interims, directors shareholdings etc)Competitor listingsDescriptions of businessDisclosure tearsheets (one page share
164、 performance and financial summary)Reuters industry briefings (useful snapshot)(25 per hour)FTProfileSimilar to Reuters but refined searching method (words in the first paragraph of an article, within one sentence / paragraph and using truncationmore FT articlesMintel (market research reports)(4p or
165、 more for every line viewed including headlines)DowJonesInteractive Similar to FT but US focus(Approx 2 per article)ResearchBankCD (Investext) Company and industry reports, merger info etc(FREE unless printing, then $9 per page)I-PlusDirectOn-line version of Research Bank CDNo free viewing, but can
166、be useful for text searching (reports available one weeks after published date)ProfoundMarket research reports and briefing reports (UK, USA, Japan, France & Germany)(200+ per report, can do individual sections for 2)AnbarManagement and academic journals(6 per article next day delivery)OxfordEconomi
167、cForecastingon the webGlobal forecast for industries, consumer prices etc.(FREE)UMI-ProquestManagement and academic journals (can download info)(Approx. $4 per article)LexisNexis General business news and legal information database, e.g. EC directives, particular cases etc. ($1-4 per article)Datasta
168、r+DialogHost system for databases. Particularly strong on medical, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, intellectual property and patents.(European bias for Datastar, US for Dialog)(Charge per article)Consumersassociation on the webSearch back copies of “which”(FREE)Marketsearch onlineGlobal sources of publi
169、shed market research and market reports(FREE) WARCWorld Advertising Research CentreSource of advertising information including “Admap” main advertising journal not avail elsewhere(FREE)NewsResearchUsual AABC Sources (1)Key QuestionTypical ProcessTricks & TipsTool DescriptionTypical Output FormatTrai
170、ning ModulesTools and TechniquesOneSourceWeb&CDReports or custom tables on historical financials (weblinks news stories) Web = UK companies + current yearCD = Global + last 10 years(FREE)Worldscope+AmadeusCondensed financial information on quoted companies worldwide. Amadeus = Europe (including non
171、listed, but have to be of certain size)(FREE)ICCJuniper100% coverage of UK companies including info on dissolved companies(9 for annual reports and accounts on private co.s)HooversUS company profiles, including history, competitors, management structure useful for large US private companies(Reuters
172、or FREE on web)Dun&Bradstreet Direct AccessWorld-wide company reports including credit score. Useful for US companies that are not listed or small UK companies(20-70 per report)Disclosure-GlobalAccessAnnual reports, etc of almost all listed companies globally(22 annual report)KompassOn-lineIdentifyi
173、ng companies within a particular industry worldwide(1.15 per minute + 15 75p per article)Chartered Institute of Marketing Chartered Institute of Accountants Electricity Council Institute of Management Industrial Society IPD - Institute of personnel development. London Business School LibraryFreeacce
174、sstoallstaffInstitute of LogisticsCranfield Material Handling Centre(Logistics issues)Anglo American ChamberLondon Chamber of CommerceInstitute of DirectorsFinancial Times Business Information ServicesDisclosure First Contact British Library Document Supply Centre.Xls. Gateway to Information provide
175、rsEuromonitor Global Marketing data & statistics on- lineDatamonitor Statistics extractsFT journals online Media/ EnergyPrimark Extel Company AnalysisAnalysis telecoms informationLafferty online DirectEIU directMintel Market ResearchFinancialInformationInformationAlliancesProposed/OnTrialUsual AABC Sources (2)All of the below offer us research and information resources/ book loans , research helpline and library access
