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1、BuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuySellSellDeutsche BankMarkets ResearchAsiaChinaPropertyPropertyIndustryChina Prop WeeklyDate5 November 2012Industry UpdateTony TsangJason Ching, CFASales to remain stable for the rest ofthis yearTotal volume down 1.5% WoWTotal volume in 40 major cities down 1.5%
2、 WoW to 6.81msqm during Oct 29 Nov 4. Total one-week volume for MTD November 2012 was down 1% YoY.Following the weaker-than-expected sales performance in September/October,sales looks like stabilizing last 2 weeks. Overall, sales volume was ranked asthe 4th highest weekly volume YTD.Volume in Tier-1
3、 cities up 10.8% WoWSales volume in Tier-1 cities during October 29 November 4 increased 10.8%WoW (four-week volume 76% YoY and up 45% MoM). Beijing was down 7%WoW, Shanghai up 41% WoW, Shenzhen up 1% WoW and Guangzhou down1% WoW. Volume this week was down 27% from the October 2010 peak; Tier-1 citi
4、es accounted for 17.0% of the total sales volume in the 40 major cities.Volume in Tier-2/3 cities down 3.7% WoWSales volume in Tier-2/3 cities during Oct 29 Nov 4 was down 3.7% WoW(four-week volume up 53% YoY and up 28% MoM). Volume this week wasdown 7% from the October 2010 peak. Chengdu, Sanya and
5、 Lanzhou saw thebiggest increases of 424%, 291% and 68% WoW, respectively.Research Analyst Research Analyst(+852) 2203 6256 (+852) 2203 Top picksCOLI (0688.HK),HKD21.65China Ovs Grand Oceans(0081.HK),HKD8.30China Resources Land(1109.HK),HKD18.50Sunac (1918.HK),HKD4.25Companies FeaturedCOLI (0688.HK
6、),HKD21.65China Ovs Grand Oceans(0081.HK),HKD8.30China Resources Land(1109.HK),HKD18.50Sunac (1918.HK),HKD4.25Country Garden Holdings(2007.HK),HKD3.51Guangzhou R&F Prop (2777.HK),HKD10.20KWG Property (1813.HK),HKD4.77C C Land (1224.HK),HKD1.93Minmetals Land LimitedBuyPBOC to suppress speculative/inv
7、estment housing demandPBOC issued the 3Q12 China Monetary Policy Report, reiterating its pledge tosuppress speculative/investment housing demand. The report also said Chinashould continue to strictly follow a differentiating lending policy in the propertysector, and should support the construction o
8、f social housing and(0230.HK),HKD1.15Central China Real Estate(0832.HK),HKD1.93Sino Ocean (3377.HK),HKD5.17Yanlord Land (YNLG.SI),SGD1.27small/medium sized ordinary commodity housing, while supporting genuinedemand from self-use first-time homebuyers. In our view, this clearly indicatesthat it will
9、continue to support genuine homebuyers demand, which lays asolid foundation for property sales in 2013. At the same time, with thesuppression of speculative/investment demand, we think the property industryconsolidation trend is likely to continue, with a lot of smaller developerscontinuing to face
10、difficulties, while leading developers take market share.Differentiating growth stocks vs. value stocks in China propertyThe China property sector was earlier viewed as a growth sector, but webelieve that growth has likely peaked for the sector and is now only possiblefor a few individual developers
11、. The ability to sustain growth in 2013/14 willdepend largely on: 1) ability to replenish landbank at cheaper land costs in2011/1H12, and 2) whether there are restrictive, debt covenants that limitgrowth (via both new acquisitions and construction starts). For growth, our toppicks are COLI, CR Land,
12、 COGO and Sunac. For value, we recommenddevelopers with accelerating sales in 4Q12E Country Garden, R&F and KWG.For small-cap turnaround stories, we like C C Land, Minmetals and CCRE. As ahedge, we recommend selling Sino Ocean and Yanlord. We derive our targetprices from NAV and DCF. Key risks: wide
13、spread financial distress and sharpdeterioration in the global economy._Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongAll prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from
14、Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only
15、a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.Jul-09Jul-10Jul-11Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Apr-12Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jul-12Jul-12Jul-09Jul-10Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jul-11Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Jan-12Oct-09
16、Oct-10Oct-11Apr-12Oct-12Oct-125 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyWeekly transaction volumes40 cities total weekly transaction volumesFigure 1: Weekly transaction volumes of the 40 major cities in Chinaksqm9,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0001st roundtightening3rd roundtightening2nd rou
17、ndtightening-Source: Deutsche Bank, SoufunTier-1 cities weekly transaction volumesFigure 2: Weekly transaction volumes of Tier-1 cities in Chinaksqm3,000Source: Deutsche Bank, SoufunPage 22,5002,0001,5001,000500-1st roundtightening2nd roundtightening3rd roundtighteningDeutsche Bank AG/Hong KongJan-0
18、9Jan-10Jan-11Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Jan-12 Apr-12Jul-09Jul-10Jul-11Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Jul-12Sep-09Sep-10Sep-11Nov-09Nov-10Nov-11Mar-10Mar-11Mar-09Mar-12Jul-09Jul-10Jul-11May-09May-10May-11May-12Jan-10Jan-11Jan-09Jan-12Jul-12Oct-125 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyTier-2/3 cities weekly transaction v
19、olumesFigure 3: Weekly transaction volumes of Tier-2/3 cities in Chinaksqm7,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001st roundtightening3rd roundtightening2nd roundtightening1,000-Source: Deutsche Bank, SoufunPercentages of Tier-1 and Tier-2/3 cities volumesFigure 4: Percentages of Tier-1 and Tier-2/3 cities vol
20、umes100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Source: Deutsche Bank, SoufunDeutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong% Tier 1% Tier 2/3Page 3Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Apr-12Jul-09Jul-10Jul-11Jul-12Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Oct-12Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Apr-12Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Apr-12Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Apr-09Apr-
21、10Apr-11Apr-12Oct-12Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jul-09Jul-10Jul-11Jul-12Oct-12Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jul-09Jul-10Jul-11Jul-12Oct-12Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jul-09Jul-10Jul-11Jul-125 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyFigure 5: Weekly volume BeijingFigure 6: Weekly volume Shang
22、haiksqm7006005004001st roundtightening2nd roundtightening3rd roundtighteningksqm8007006005001st roundtightening2nd roundtightening3rd roundtightening300400300200100-Purchaserestriction200100-PurchaserestrictionSource: Deutsche Bank, SoufunFigure 7: Weekly volume GuangzhouksqmSource: Deutsche Bank, S
23、oufunFigure 8: Weekly volume Shenzhenksqm1,2002nd round4501,000800600400tightening1st roundtighteningPurchaserestriction3rd roundtightening4003503002502001501002nd roundtightening1st roundtighteningPurchaserestriction3rd roundtightening200-Source: Deutsche Bank, SoufunFigure 9: Cities with top 10 we
24、ekly transaction volumes50-Source: Deutsche Bank, SoufunFigure 10: Cities with top 10 WoW volume changesRanking12345678910CityChongqingChangshaShanghaiWuhanGuangzhouShenyangBeijingChengduGuiyangHangzhouVolume616552473334303286285285278256WoW13%25%41%2%-1%-12%-7%424%2%29%Ranking12345678910CityChengdu
25、SanyaLanzhouWenzhouShanghaiNingboXiamenTianjinHangzhouChangshaWoW424%291%68%59%41%34%32%31%29%25%Volume(ksqm)2853325474739449250256552Source: Deutsche Bank, SoufunPage 4Source: Deutsche Bank, SoufunDeutsche Bank AG/Hong KongOct-09Oct-10Oct-11Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Apr-12Oct-12Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jul-
26、09Jul-10Jul-11Jul-125 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyFigure 11: Average weekly ASP for the 40 major citiesRmb/sqm12,00011,00010,0009,0008,0007,0001st roundtightening2nd roundtightening3rd roundtightening6,0005,000Source: Deutsche Bank, SoufunFigure 12: Average weekly ASP for Tier-1 citiesRmb/
27、sqm24,00022,00020,00018,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,000Source: Deutsche Bank, SoufunDeutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong1st roundtightening2nd roundtightening3rd roundtighteningPage 5Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Apr-12Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Apr-12Jan-09Jan-10Jul-09Jul-10Oct-12Jan-09Jan-10
28、Jan-11Jan-12Jul-09Jul-10Jul-11Jul-12Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Apr-12Jul-09Jul-10Jul-11Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Jul-12Oct-12Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Apr-12Oct-10Oct-11Feb-10Feb-11Dec-10Dec-11Feb-12Apr-10Apr-11Aug-10Aug-11Apr-12 Aug-12Oct-12Jun-10Jun-11Jun-12Oct-12Jan-09Jan-10Jan-1
29、1Jan-12Jul-09Jul-10Jul-11Jul-12Oct-12Jan-11Jan-12Jul-11Jul-125 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyFigure 13: Average weekly ASP for Tier-2/3 citiesRmb/sqm11,00010,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,000Source: Deutsche Bank, SoufunFigure 14: Weekly ASP Beijing1st roundtightening3rd roundtightening2nd roundt
30、ighteningFigure 15: Weekly ASP ShanghaiRmb/sqm35,00030,0001st roundtightening3rd roundtighteningRmb/sqm21,00019,00017,0001st roundtightening3rd roundtightening25,00020,00015,00013,00011,00015,0009,0002nd round10,0005,0002nd roundtightening7,0005,000tighteningSource: Deutsche Bank, SoufunFigure 16: W
31、eekly ASP GuangzhouRmb/sqmSource: Deutsche Bank, SoufunFigure 17: Weekly ASP ShenzhenRmb/sqm15,00014,00013,0001st roundtightening3rd roundtightening35,00030,0001st roundtightening3rd roundtightening12,00011,00010,0009,00025,00020,00015,0008,0007,0006,0002nd roundtightening10,0005,0002nd roundtighten
32、ing5,000Source: Deutsche Bank, SoufunPage 6Source: Deutsche Bank, SoufunDeutsche Bank AG/Hong KongOct-08Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Apr-08Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Apr-12Oct-12Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jul-08Jul-09Jul-10Jul-11Jul-125 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyFigure 18: Sellable GFA (supply) in major
33、citiesksqm14,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000-BeijingShanghaiShenzhenGuangzhouChongqingHangzhouSource: Deutsche Bank, SoufunDeutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 7Oct-08Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Apr-08Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Apr-12Oct-08Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Oct-12Apr-08Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Apr-12Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan
34、-12Jul-08Jul-09Jul-10Jul-11Jul-12Oct-08Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Oct-12Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jul-08Jul-09Jul-10Jul-11Jul-12Apr-08Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Apr-12 Oct-12Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jul-08Jul-09Jul-10Jul-11Jul-125 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyFigure 19: Supply/sales ratio of major c
35、itiesMonths706050403020100BeijingShanghaiShenzhenGuangzhouChongqingHangzhouSource: Deutsche Bank, SoufunFigure 20: Inventory period BeijingMonths6050403020100Figure 21: Inventory period ShanghaiMonths20181614121086420BeijingBeijing AvrgShanghaiShanghai AvrgSource: Deutsche Bank, SoufunPage 8Source:
36、Deutsche Bank, SoufunDeutsche Bank AG/Hong KongOct-08Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Apr-08Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Apr-12 Oct-12Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jul-08Jul-09Jul-10Jul-11Jul-12Apr-10Apr-11Feb-10Feb-11Feb-12Apr-12Jun-10Jun-11Dec-09Dec-10Aug-10Aug-11 Dec-11Jun-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Oct-12Nov-12Oct-0
37、8Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Apr-08Apr-09Apr-10Apr-11Apr-12 Oct-12Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jul-08Jul-09Jul-10Jul-11Jul-12Nov-09Nov-10Nov-11Jan-10Jan-11May-10May-11Jan-12May-12Sep-10Sep-11Jul-10Jul-11Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Jul-125 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyFigure 22: Inventory period ShenzhenMonths
38、50454035302520151050Figure 23: Inventory period GuangzhouMonths4035302520151050ShenzhenShenzhen AvrgGuangzhouGuangzhou AvrgSource: Deutsche Bank, SoufunFigure 24: Inventory period HangzhouMonths140120100806040200Source: Deutsche Bank, SoufunFigure 25: Inventory period NanjingMonths454035302520151050
39、Source: Deutsche Bank, SoufunHangzhouHangzhou AvrgSource: Deutsche Bank, SoufunNanjingNanjing AvrgFigure 26: Cities with Home Purchase Restrictions (HPR)Date13-Oct-111-Feb-111-Feb-111-Feb-1116-Feb-1116-Feb-1120-Feb-1121-Feb-1121-Feb-1121-Feb-1121-Feb-1121-Feb-1123-Feb-1123-Feb-11CityZhoushanQingdaoC
40、hangchunShanghaiChengduBeijingNingboShijiazhuangGuiyangWuxiNanjingXiamenWuhanTaiyuanTierTier 3Tier 2Tier 2Tier 1Tier 2Tier 1Tier 2Tier 2Tier 2Tier 3Tier 2Tier 2Tier 2Tier 2NoteBoth local and non-local households can buy one additional home in the city, except for any tourism-related property7 distri
41、cts (崂山/市南/市北/城阳/黄岛/李沧/四方)N/ACumulative 1 year of local tax/social security proof within last 2 years6 districts (锦江/青羊/金牛/武侯/成华/高新)5 consecutive years of local tax/social security proofN/A5 districts + High Tech Dev district (桥东/新华/桥西/长安/裕华/高新)Within 1st ring road6 districts (崇安/南长/北塘/滨湖(incl.高新区)/
42、惠山/锡山)11 districts (玄武/鼓楼/建邺/白下/秦淮/下关/雨花台/栖霞/浦口/江宁/六合)N/AN/A6 districts (迎泽/杏花岭/万柏林/尖草坪/小店/晋源)Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 9Feb11Oct11Feb12Apr11May11Apr12May12Jul11Jun11Jan12Aug11Sep11 Nov11Dec11Jun12Jan11Jul12Aug12Oct11Apr11Feb11May11Feb12Apr12May12Jan11Jun11Jan12Nov11Dec11Aug11Sep11Jun12Aug12Sep
43、12Mar11Mar12Sep12Mar11Mar12Jul11Jul12Tier 11.07.05 November 2012PropertyChina Prop Weekly23-Feb-11 Nanchang24-Feb-11 Yinchuan25-Feb-11 GuangzhouTier 2Tier 35 districts (东湖/西湖/青云谱/湾里/青山湖)Households with 2+ homes but GFA per head of less than 43sqm can buy a third home10 main districts (越秀/荔湾/海珠/天河/白云
44、/黄埔/番禺/花都/南沙/萝岗); cumulative 1 year of local tax/social security proofwithin last 2 years25-Feb-1125-Feb-1128-Feb-1128-Feb-1128-Feb-111-Mar-111-Mar-111-Mar-111-Mar-111-Mar-112-Mar-112-Mar-114-Mar-115-Mar-115-Mar-117-Mar-118-Mar-119-Mar-1110-Mar-1115-Mar-1118-Mar-1124-Mar-1125-Mar-1128-Mar-1125-Apr-1
45、11-May-111-Sep-118-Sep-111-Nov-11JinanXianHangzhouUrumqiHaikouHohhotHarbinKunmingTianjinNanningFuzhouShenzhenZhengzhouSanyaChangshaSuzhouShenyangLanzhouWenzhouJinhuaFoshanHefeiXiningDalianShaoxingXuzhouTaizhou (ZJ)QuzhouZhuhaiTier 2Tier 2Tier 2Tier 2Tier 3Tier 2Tier 2Tier 3Tier 2Tier 2Tier 2Tier 1Ti
46、er 2Tier 3Tier 2Tier 2Tier 2Tier 2Tier 3Tier 3Tier 2Tier 2Tier 3Tier 2Tier 3Tier 3Tier 3Tier 3Tier 37 districts 历下/市中/槐荫/天桥/历城/长清/高新; cumulative 1 year of local tax/social security proof within last 2 yearsN/ACumulative 1 year of local tax/social security proof within last 2 yearsN/ACumulative 1 yea
47、r of local tax/social security proof within last 2 years4 districts (回民/新城/玉泉/赛罕)6 districts (道里/道外/南岗/香坊/平房/松北)4 districts + Chenggong district (五华/盘龙/西山/官渡/呈贡)N/A6 districts (兴宁/青秀/江南/西乡塘/良庆/邕宁);5 districts (台江/鼓楼/仓山/马尾/晋安)1 year of local tax/social security proof, no one-off payment allowed6 dist
48、ricts (中原/二七/金水/惠济/上街/郑东新区)2 districts (河东/河西)5 districts (芙蓉/天心/开福/岳麓/雨花)7 districts (吴中/相城/金阊/平江/沧浪/虎丘/高新); cumulative 1 year of local tax/social security proof within last 2 years;Within 2nd ring road (人口密集、房价过高的二环区域内)Cumulative 2 years of local tax/social security proof within last 2 yearsN/A2 d
49、istricts (婺城/金东)N/A4 districts (瑶海/庐阳/蜀山/包河)4 districts (城东/城中/城西/城北)5 districts (中山/西岗/沙河口/甘井子/高新园区)Shaoxing district (绍兴市区)4 districts (鼓楼/云龙/泉山/新城区);Cumulative 1 year of local tax/social security proof within last 2 years; downtown districts; for primary homesCumulative 1 year of local tax/social
50、 security proof within last 2 years; no home allowed for local families already owning 3+homes or non-local families already owning 1+ homeXiangzhou district (香洲); cumulative 1 year of local tax/social security proof within last 2 yearsSource: Deutsche BankFigure 27: 70-city primary residential ASP
51、MoMNBS 70-City Primary Residential ASP - % MoM0.80.60.40.2-(0.2)(0.4)Source: Deutsche Bank, NBSPage 10Figure 28: 70-city primary residential ASP YoYNBS 70-City Primary Residential ASP - % YoY6.05.04.03.02.01.0-(1.0)(2.0)Source: Deutsche Bank, NBSDeutsche Bank AG/Hong KongNov11Dec11Aug12Aug12Aug12Aug
52、11Sep11May11May12Aug11Sep11Dec11Aug12May11May12Sep12Nov11Apr11Oct11Feb11Feb12Mar11Mar12Apr12Jul11Jun11Jan12Jun12Jan11Jul12Oct11Apr11Feb11Feb12Apr12Jul11May11May12Jan11Jun11Jan12Aug11Sep11 Nov11Dec11Jun12Jul12Feb11Feb12May11May12Aug11Sep11Aug12Sep12Dec11Nov11Mar11Mar12Dec11Nov11Aug11Sep11May11May12Oc
53、t11Apr11Feb11Feb12Apr12May11May12Jun11Dec11Nov11Jan11Jan12Jun12Aug12Aug11Sep11Sep12Mar11Mar12Sep12Oct11Apr11Feb11Mar11Feb12Mar12Apr12Jul11Jan11Jun11Jan12Jul11Jul12Jun12Jul12Sep12Mar11Apr11Oct11Apr12Jan11Jun11Jan12Jun12Mar12Jul11Jul12Sep12Oct11Apr11Feb12Mar12Apr12Feb11Mar11Jul11Jun11Jan11Jan12Jun12Ju
54、l120.80.65.04.01.61.41.210.08.01.21.06.05.05 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyFigure 29: 70-city secondary residential ASP MoMNBS 70-City Secondary Commodity Residential ASP - % MoMFigure 30: 70-city secondary residential ASP YoYNBS 70-City Secondary Commodity Residential ASP - % YoY3.00.42.00.
55、2-(0.2)(0.4)1.0-(1.0)(2.0)(3.0)(0.6)Source: Deutsche Bank, NBSFigure 31: 70-city primary residential ASP by city tiers MoMNBS 70-City Primary Residential ASP - % MoM1.00.80.60.40.20.0(0.2)(0.4)(0.6)Source: Deutsche Bank, NBSFigure 32: 70-city primary residential ASP by city tiers YoYNBS 70-City Prim
56、ary Residential ASP - % YoY6.04.02.00.0(2.0)(4.0)Tier 1 CitiesTier 2 CitiesTier 3/4 CitiesTier 1 CitiesTier 2 CitiesTier 3/4 CitiesSource: Deutsche Bank, NBSFigure 33: 70-city secondary residential ASP by city tiers MoMNBS 70-City Secondary Commodity Residential ASP - % MoM0.80.60.40.20.0(0.2)(0.4)(
57、0.6)(0.8)Source: Deutsche Bank, NBSFigure 34: 70-city secondary residential ASP by city tiers YoYNBS 70-City Secondary Commodity Residential ASP - % YoY4.03.02.01.00.0(1.0)(2.0)(3.0)(4.0)Tier 1 CitiesTier 2 CitiesTier 3/4 CitiesTier 1 CitiesTier 2 CitiesTier 3/4 CitiesSource: Deutsche Bank, NBSDeuts
58、che Bank AG/Hong KongSource: Deutsche Bank, NBSPage 11Aug-10Aug-11Aug-12Dec-10Dec-11Oct-10Oct-11Feb-11Feb-12Apr-12Apr-11 Jun-11Jun-12Aug-12Aug-11Sep-11Nov-11Dec-11May-12ShimaoYuexiuYuzhouChinaSCEPolyCNCRLandCOLICOGOPolyPropertySino-OceanCCREGreentownPowerlongFantasiaBCLandCCLandEvergrandeKWGChinaVan
59、keSZInvLongForR&FC.GardenGemdaleGloriousMinmetalsKaisaSunacAgileSPGLandSep-12Oct-11Apr-12Feb-12 Mar-12Jul-11Jan-12Jun-12Jul-1210%-5 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyFigure 35: Soufun 100-city ASP MoMFigure 36: Soufun 100-city ASP by tiers YoY2.0%1.5%1.0%Souf un 100 City Average ASP - MoM8%6%Sou
60、f un 100 City Average ASP - YoY4%0.5%2%0.0%0%-0.5%-1.0%-2%-4%Tier 1 CitiesTier 2 CitiesTier 3/4 CitiesTier 1 CitiesTier 2 CitiesTier 3/4 CitiesSource: Deutsche Bank, SoufunFigure 37: Contracted sales target achieved YTDSource: Deutsche Bank, Soufun140% achieved in 9M12 (Revised target)Average120%100
61、%80%60%40%20%0%Source: Deutsche Bank, Company data; * EstimatedFigure 38: Recent contracted sales of major developers (in RMBm)%achieved%achieved%2012in 9M122012in 9M122011 achievedTarget(RevisedTarget(Original% YoY -% MoM -% YoY -CompanyTicker9M11Target in 9M119M12(Revised)target)(Original)target)9
62、M12Sep-12Sep 12Sep 12AgileAoyuanBC LandCC LandCCREChina SCE3383 HK3883 HK2868 HK1224 HK832 HK1966 HK22,9003,6207,7804,4796,9933,91737,0005,50015,0007,5007,3005,50062%66%52%60%96%71%20,7409,0004,9907,8133,88735,0005,00012,0006,8079,0004,00059%na75%73%87%97%35,0005,00012,0006,8079,0004,00059%na75%73%8
63、7%97%-9%na16%11%12%-1%2,3501,0309578933107%na13%48%-9%-51%-16%na-1%40%59%3%China Vanke 200002 CH97,080 120,00081%96,320133,00072%133,00072%-1%12,0406%-4%COLICOGOC. GardenCR Land688 HK81 HK2007 HK1109 HK71,3385,43932,50024,09080,0007,00043,00030,00089%78%76%80%91,90411,80029,60037,680100,00013,00043,
64、00040,00092%91%69%94%80,00010,00043,00040,000115%118%69%94%29%117%-9%56%8,6281,5863,8103,8108%50%3%-36%31%na41%-6%Page 12Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong5 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyEvergrandeFantasiaGemdaleGloriousGreentownKaisaKWGLongForMinmetalsPoly CN3333 HK1777 HK600383 CH845 HK3900 HK1638
65、 HK1813 HK960 HK230 HK600048 CH69,2605,47719,73010,33424,00010,2939,22928,2503,00357,27570,0006,00032,50015,00050,00015,00015,00040,0004,04580,00099%91%61%69%48%69%62%71%74%72%58,5805,43022,3208,90432,50010,9818,77228,1202,71275,62880,0007,20032,50013,00040,00016,50012,00039,0004,00080,00073%75%69%6
66、8%81%67%73%72%68%95%80,0007,20032,50013,00040,00016,50012,00039,0004,00080,00073%75%69%68%81%67%73%72%68%95%-15%-1%13%-14%35%7%-5%0%-10%32%8,1207044,0601,0865,3001,6301,2464,0103807,75913%-1%82%-1%19%14%13%12%-24%-9%-11%-11%7%-10%212%-18%52%-5%-31%15%Poly Property 119 HK12,20018,00068%17,20019,00091
67、%16,000108%41%2,100-9%62%PowerlongR&FSZ InvShimaoSino-OceanSPG LandSunacYuexiuYuzhou1238 HK2777 HK604 HK813 HK3377 HK337 HK1918 HK123 HK1628 HK4,06821,4593,63024,48019,0002,32911,1174,7193,40010,00032,0004,70036,00030,0008,00018,3009,0006,50041%67%77%68%63%29%61%52%52%4,66922,3334,32835,69823,6002,1
68、4619,20011,0205,1486,00032,0006,00030,70027,0004,20030,00010,0005,00078%70%72%116%87%51%64%110%103%6,00032,0006,00030,70027,0004,20022,00010,0005,00078%70%72%116%87%51%87%110%103%15%4%19%46%24%-8%73%134%51%6672,5018335,1373,3001662,9601,37661265%-11%34%27%0%-14%13%20%67%6%-17%177%44%-6%16%84%10%71%A
69、verage68%80%83%22%12%27%Source: Deutsche Bank, CompanyNote: COLI and COGO in HKDmFigure 39: China property valuationsDBTrade ReportMktCap12MDaily Nov 05 Target ImpliedT/OEst.NAVEPSPE(x)CompanyTickerRatingCcyCcyUSDm USDm PricePrice Upside NAVDisc11A12F13F11A12A13FCoveredCOLICR LandLongforCountry Gard
70、enEvergrandeCSCIR&FAgileSino-OceanSOHO China688 HK1109 HK960 HK2007 HK3333 HK3311 HK2777 HK3383 HK3377 HK410 HKBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuySellBuyHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDCNYCNYCNYHKDCNYCNYCNYCNY22,83013,9109,9028,2566,9544,8354,2414,2283,9013,74855.1622.1313.0611.1541.358.618.8016.973.466.49
71、21.6518.5014.143.513.609.6410.209.505.175.6725.7021.8016.003.856.1610.0016.7912.953.637.7019%18%13%10%71%4%65%36%-30%36%28.627.320.05.58.810.028.018.59.112.8-24%-32%-29%-36%-59%-4%-64%-49%-43%-56%1.591.030.870.350.570.441.361.290.380.272.031.371.060.380.600.541.711.230.390.522.881.561.310.430.740.60
72、1.791.530.450.5913.618.013.08.15.121.86.05.911.016.710.613.510.77.54.917.74.86.210.68.87.511.98.76.63.916.04.65.09.37.7Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 135 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyHui Xian REITFranshionYuexiuShui OnCOGOPoly PropertyYanlordKWGSunacKaisaC C LandCentral ChinaE-HouseMinmetal
73、sFar East Global87001 HK817 HK123 HK272 HK81 HK119 HKYLLG SP1813 HK1918 HK1638 HK1224 HK832 HKEJ US230 HK830 HKBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuySellBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyCNYHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDSGDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDUSDHKDHKDCNYHKDCNYCNYHKDHKDCNYCNYCNYCNYHKDCNYUSDHKDHKD3,4382,8732,6512,6172,4442,2812,0191,7811,65093764460
74、54974953921.971.614.952.472.5610.346.585.451.770.990.950.151.560.281.334.232.432.213.388.304.901.274.774.251.481.931.934.211.151.414.633.553.045.019.787.821.006.595.214.004.594.139.502.002.919%46%38%48%18%60%-21%38%23%170%138%114%126%74%106%6.65.14.38.412.211.22.011.08.76.79.26.90.03.42.9-36%-52%-49
75、%-60%-32%-56%-36%-57%-51%-78%-79%-72%NA-66%-52%0.110.180.120.270.700.680.440.640.800.320.110.30(0.11)0.180.070.210.250.290.311.080.550.400.790.910.360.270.350.500.18(0.07)0.240.300.300.492.240.820.500.800.960.490.410.630.840.280.0638.613.514.610.111.97.314.86.04.33.717.45.2NA6.320.719.79.66.28.77.78
76、.916.14.83.83.37.24.48.46.2NA17.98.06.05.63.76.012.94.83.62.44.72.55.04.125.5Not RatedLippo Select HK2824 HKNRHKDHKDNA0.1037.60NANANANANANANANANANAMainland ETFChina Vanke - AChina Vanke - BShimaoNWCLGreentownHopsonMingfaGloriousShenzhen InvRenheBJ North StarPowerlongYuzhouFantasiaAoyuanBC LandSPG La
77、ndZhong An000002 CH200002 CH813 HK917 HK3900 HK754 HK846 HK845 HK604 HK1387 HK588 HK1238 HK1628 HK1777 HK3883 HK2868 HK337 HK672 HKNRNRNRNRNRNRNRNRNRNRNRNRNRNRNRNRNRNRCNYHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDCNYCNYCNYHKDCNYHKDCNYCNYHKDCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNY15,32215,3226,7664,3432,7
78、311,8371,7221,2571,04895571771667355841232326025170.412.9216.071.452.381.190.592.131.974.880.130.620.130.300.131.000.150.078.6711.1015.103.899.938.202.191.252.240.351.651.371.810.831.222.451.920.82NANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANAN
79、ANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANA0.880.881.60.51.60.80.30.30.40.20.30.80.40.20.20.50.90.21.091.091.30.31.80.80.20.20.40.20.20.20.60.11.271.271.560.331.941.030.120.250.390.260.260.210.560.269.910.27.57.45.110.06.73.65.21.13.81.33.72.95.74.21.84.47.98.29.113.64.510.811.05.16.0NA7.04.6NA3.4NA3.
80、611.5NA6.87.07.812.04.18.014.74.15.7NA5.14.2NA3.2NA3.65.9NAOverall average-49%9.28.37.3(including notrated)Source: Deutsche Bank, Company, Bloomberg Finance LP consensus estimates for companies NRPage 14Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong-5 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyFigure 40: China property valu
81、ations (contd)EPS growth %BVPSPB(x)DPSDividends yield %Net gearing %CompanyTicker11A12F13F11A12F13F11A12F13F11A12F13F11A12F13F11A12F13FCoveredCOLICR LandLongforCountry GardenEvergrandeCSCIAgileR&FSino-OceanSOHO ChinaHui Xian REITFranshionShui OnYuexiuCOGOPoly PropertyYanlordKWGSunacKaisaC C LandCent
82、ral ChinaE-HouseMinmetalsFar East Global688 HK1109 HK960 HK2007 HK3333 HK3311 HK3383 HK2777 HK3377 HK410 HK87001 HK817 HK272 HK123 HK81 HK119 HKYLLG SP1813 HK1918 HK1638 HK1224 HK832 HKEJ US230 HK830 HK3721413513261330(7)(60)(47)548223057101(33)222912NA10NA(4)(36)2833228423(5)2539096411713754(19)(8)
83、23131114219NA1NA4214231423112451414112055310949251637537867528.610.44.31.72.22.67.57.06.34.25.22.95.42.22.36.87.64.72.42.45.12.17.91.90.610.511.55.11.92.53.47.18.37.14.85.13.15.72.43.37.58.05.23.22.85.42.27.82.10.513.012.86.22.23.03.98.39.57.45.65.13.46.52.65.48.48.55.84.23.45.72.77.92.40.52.31.72.5
84、1.41.23.40.91.10.61.00.80.80.50.83.50.70.80.81.30.50.30.70.50.52.61.91.52.11.31.12.61.00.90.50.90.80.80.50.72.40.60.80.71.00.40.30.70.50.52.91.51.31.71.10.92.30.80.80.50.80.80.70.40.61.50.50.70.60.70.30.30.50.50.42.70.30.30.20.20.20.10.30.60.20.30.10.00.10.10.1-0.10.1-0.00.10.20.0-0.40.30.20.20.20.1
85、0.30.60.20.30.30.10.10.10.1-0.00.2-0.10.20.20.0-0.40.30.30.20.30.10.40.60.20.30.30.10.10.10.2-0.00.2-0.10.20.20.00.01.71.51.77.28.51.44.98.04.06.03.61.74.84.20.60.00.01.62.50.02.35.53.71.00.01.81.52.06.38.91.54.98.04.26.06.22.15.04.21.30.00.35.80.00.02.812.33.71.80.02.21.52.57.211.11.65.48.04.56.26.
86、72.55.04.21.90.00.45.80.00.03.410.63.71.61.133.362.340.970.682.3-1.576.685.964.3-9.6-3.248.768.477.222.9104.050.662.7109.376.63.845.7-62.330.5-6.413.761.441.870.8107.3-7.688.780.061.6-23.91.332.749.151.1-90.8106.052.231.519.169.910.733.0-57.934.1-42.5-5.835.042.264.795.8-8.078.149.4-72.565.5-24.520.
87、2-168.033.842.290.854.030.6-35.569.77.8-19.150.528.3-35.6Not RatedLippo Select HK2824 HKNANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANANAMainland ETFChina Vanke - AChina Vanke - BShimaoNWCLGreentown000002 CH200002 CH813 HK917 HK3900 HK33332341272424(18)(44)131717171454.84.88.87.07.35.75.79.75.58.96.76.710.86.010.3
88、1.71.71.30.51.01.41.41.20.60.81.21.21.10.60.70.10.10.30.10.20.20.40.10.20.20.20.40.10.21.61.62.2NA1.41.91.92.51.62.92.12.13.02.13.3NANA86.2NA252.2NANA82.019.6NANANA82.019.6NAMingfa846 HK185(40)(25)1.21.5NANA0.00.02.32.8NANANANAHopsonGlorious754 HK845 HK(54)39(8)(29)3524242.2232.424.0 0.32.7 0.40.30.
89、40.30.40.10.00.10.00.00.01.11.51.52.139.566.276.769.276.769.2Shenzhen InvRenheBJ North StarPowerlong604 HK1387 HK588 HK1238 HK7394252234(13)NA(45)(72)4NA3784.31.04.13.55.01.04.54.05.3 0.51.1 0.34.8 0.34.6 0.30.40.30.30.30.40.20.30.20.2-0.00.10.20.00.10.20.00.17.70.02.35.78.90.8NA6.010.21.1NA6.4NANAN
90、ANANANANANANANANANAYuzhou1628 HK3NANA1.90.8NANA0.01.8NANANANANAFantasia1777 HK117(14)81.11.21.3 0.60.50.50.00.00.15.27.38.1NANA12.5Aoyuan3883 HK171NANA2.40.3NANA0.16.1NANANANANABC LandSPG Land2868 HK337 HK42514(84)4952.85.03.15.33.5 0.75.4 0.30.60.30.50.30.20.20.00.20.010.30.011.11.311.11.281.7NANAN
91、ANANAZhong An672 HK103NANA2.10.3NANA-0.0NANANANANAOverall average5113271.00.90.83.03.64.055.335.925.0(including notrated)Source: Deutsche Bank, Company, Bloomberg Finance LP, Consensus estimates for companies NRDeutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 15NA5 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyAppendix 1Impo
92、rtant DisclosuresAdditional information available upon requestDisclosure checklistCompanyCOLIChina Ovs Grand OceansTicker0688.HK0081.HKRecent price*21.65 (HKD) 5 Nov 128.28 (HKD) 5 Nov 12Disclosure14*Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced fr
93、om Deutsche Bank and subject companiesImportant Disclosures Required by U.S. RegulatorsDisclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.See Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes.14. Deutsche Ban
94、k and/or its affiliate(s) has received non-investment banking related compensation from this companywithin the past year.For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of thisresearch, please see the most recently published company report
95、 or visit our global disclosure look-up page on ourwebsite at http:/ CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about thesubject issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not a
96、nd will not receiveany compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Tony Tsang/Jason ChingPage 16Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongSecurityPriceSecurityPrice921.6.2.7.3.8.4.9.5.1.7.2.8.3.9.4.5.6.5 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyHistorical recommendations and target pri
97、ce: COLI (0688.HK)(as of 11/5/2012)25.00Previous RecommendationsStrong BuyBuy20.0034 5678Market PerformUnderperformNot Rated15.0010.005.001Suspended RatingCurrent RecommendationsBuyHoldSellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,20020.00Nov 10Feb 11May 11Aug 11Nov 11F
98、eb 12May 12Aug 12Date14/03/2011:17/03/2011:31/05/2011:17/07/2011:09/08/2011:Buy, Target Price Change HKD19.50Buy, Target Price Change HKD19.60Buy, Target Price Change HKD21.38Buy, Target Price Change HKD23.33Buy, Target Price Change HKD23.4315/03/2012:27/06/2012:09/08/2012:25/10/2012:Buy, Target Pri
99、ce Change HKD23.68Buy, Target Price Change HKD24.38Buy, Target Price Change HKD24.91Buy, Target Price Change HKD25.70Historical recommendations and target price: China Ovs Grand Oceans (0081.HK)(as of 11/5/2012)16.0014.007Previous RecommendationsStrong BuyBuy12.0056Market PerformUnderperform10.008.0
100、0123481091112Not RatedSuspended RatingCurrent RecommendationsBuy6.004.002.00HoldSellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,20020.00Nov 10Feb 11May 11Aug 11Nov 11Feb 12May 12Aug 12Date09/03/2011:15/03/2011:21/03/2011:10/04/2011:31/05/2011:07/07/2011:Upgrade to Buy, Ta
101、rget Price Change HKD9.64Buy, Target Price Change HKD11.39Buy, Target Price Change HKD11.82Buy, Target Price Change HKD12.25Buy, Target Price Change HKD14.72Buy, Target Price Change HKD15.2004/08/2011:27/10/2011:14/02/2012:10. 28/02/2012:11. 06/07/2012:12. 10/09/2012:Buy, Target Price Change HKD16.3
102、5Buy, Target Price Change HKD11.79Buy, Target Price Change HKD12.88Buy, Target Price Change HKD12.98Buy, Target Price Change HKD9.55Buy, Target Price Change HKD9.78Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 1705 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyEquity rating keyBuy: Based on a current 12- month view of tot
103、alEquity rating dispersion and banking relationshipsshare-holder return (TSR = percentage change inshare price from current price to projected target priceplus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend thatinvestors buy the stock.Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return,
104、we recommend that investors sell thestockHold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months4504003503002502001501005056 %11 %38 %16 %6%13 %out and, based on this time horizon, do notrecommend either a Buy or Sell.Notes:BuyHoldSell1. Newly issued research recommendations andtarget prices always supe
105、rsede previously publishedCompaniesCoveredCos. w/ BankingRelationshipresearch.2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were:Buy: Expected total return (including dividends)of 10% or more over a 12-month periodAsia-PacificUniverseHold:Expectedtotalreturn(includingdividends) between -10% and 1
106、0% over a 12-month periodSell: Expected total return (including dividends)of -10% or worse over a 12-month periodPage 18Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong5 November 2012PropertyChina Prop WeeklyRegulatory Disclosures1. Important Additional Conflict DisclosuresAside from within this report, important conflic
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