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1、BuyDeutsche BankMarkets ResearchGlobalChemicalsPeriodicalGlobal ChemicalsWeeklyDate14 December 2012Tim JonesNews, views and valuationVictrex (VCTX.L, BUY)Victrex reported solid H2 results with PBT increasing 5% YoY, which wasbroadly in line with consensus. The outlook was not quantified butmanagemen
2、t noted that growth drivers remain strong across all end marketsand a further signal of this confidence was provided with a 15% increase in thefull year dividend. The capacity expansion plans were again highlighted withBDF capacity (PEEK raw material) due onstream in 2013 and new PEEKcapacity in ear
3、ly 2015. At 16x 14E P/E the stock may not look cheap ontraditional multiples but with structural growth, sector leading returns and thepotential for further cash return in medium term, we have a BUY.Eastman Chemical (EMN.N, BUY)Eastmans investor meeting was upbeat as the company reaffirmed 12 EPSgui
4、dance, provided in-line 13 EPS guidance and established an $8/shr 15 EPStarget (15% CAGR 13-15). We believe the $8 target will ultimately proveconservative due to Solutia. Less than 6 months into this $5B acquisition,significant benefits are being realized from the combination such that Eastmanis hi
5、ghly confident it will materially exceed its cost and sales synergies. WithSolutia transforming Eastman to a specialty chemical company, the innovationpipeline revitalized (NPV of $1B in 15E vs $850MM in 12E and $700MM in11) and valuation an attractive 10.2x 13E EPS vs peers at 12x, reiterate Buy.Du
6、Pont (DD.N, BUY)While the midpoint of DuPonts 13 EPS guidance was 6% below consensus,the entire shortfall was due to TiO2. We note that TiO2 weakness is not asurprise, TiO2 is becoming a smaller portion of DuPonts earnings (10% in 13Evs 19% in 12E and 24% in 11) and, while a big earnings delta, TiO2
7、 has aResearch Analyst(+44) 20 754-Martin Dunwoodie, CFAResearch Analyst(+44) 20 754-Virginie Boucher-FerteResearch Analyst(+44) 20 754-57940virginie.boucher-Oliver ReiffResearch Analyst(+44) 20 754-David Begleiter, CFAResearch Analyst(+1) 212 250-Shawn ParkResearch Analyst(+82) 2 316 small impact o
8、n valuation as investors attach a low multiple to TiO2 earnings.More importantly, the rest of DuPont is performing well with 13E pretaxearnings and EPS ex-TiO2 up 12% and high teens, respectively, and theannouncement of a $1B share buyback a strong statement that managementbelieves its shares are ch
9、eap. With valuation an attractive 11.1x 13E EPS, Buy.Figure 1: European stock performance (% change absolute)Best Performer over the last week 1-week 1-month YTD 12-monthsTable Of ContentsGlobal ValuationEurope: News & valuationUS: News & valuationAsia: News & valuationEvent calendarPage 02Page 03Pa
10、ge 07Page 09Page 11WACKER CHEMIE13.214.1-22.7-25.3Top picksSYNTHOMERWorst Performer over the last weekAZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)ICLSource: DataStream3.21-week-2.9-1.919.61-month-1.40.916.9YTD49.417.818.512-months47.735.2AkzoNobel (AKZO.AS),EUR45.46Arkema (AKE.PA),EUR81.20BASF (BASFn.DE),EUR71.81Lanxess
11、 (LXSG.DE),EUR67.52Linde (LING.DE),EUR133.50BuyBuyBuyBuyBuyFigure 2: US stock performance (% change absolute)Syngenta (SYNN.VX),CHF370.40Best Performer over the last weekWESTLAKE CHEMICALEASTMAN CHEMICALWorst Performer over the last weekVALSPARAGRIUM1-week5.84.81-week-4.3-3.51-month0.811.51-month4.7
12、-0.7YTD90.863.2YTD52.740.712-months96.874.812-months64.642.6Source: DataStream_Deutsche Bank AG/LondonDeutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors shouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objecti
13、vity of this report. Investors shouldconsider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.14 December 2012Global Chemicals WeeklyGlobal sector valuationFigure 3: Global sector valuations
14、PriceTargetEst. EarningsP/EEV/EBITDAMkt CapRatingCur.13/12/2012PriceFY12EFY13EFY12EFY13EFY12EFY13E(US$ m)EUROPE: MAJORSArkemaBASFLanxessSolvaySynthomerBuyBuyBuyHoldHoldEUREUREUREURGBp81.271.867.5106.4192.092.079.080.097.0175.07.55.66.97.921.48.36.37.87.522.310.812.99.813.49.09.811.58.714.18.66.26.46
15、.46.77.15.75.95.76.76.66,52985,2697,26311,1681,053EUROPE: INDUSTRIAL GASAir LiquideLindeHoldBuyEUREUR95.5133.5101.0160.05.18.05.59.518.916.717.414.19.59.38.77.838,48730,670EUROPE: SPECIALTYAkzoNobelAZ Electronic MaterialsClariantCrodaDSMGivaudanJohnson MattheyKemiraLenzingSymriseUmicoreVictrexWacker
16、BuyBuyHoldHoldHoldSellBuyBuyBuyHoldHoldBuySellEURGBpCHFGBPEURCHFGBPEUREUREUREURGBPEUR45.5358.511.62344.044.8959.52413.011.464.027.140.31581.048.256.0450.011.52350.043.0850.02700.013.580.026.038.01825.037.03.30.40.9128.12.852.5148.40.86.81.62.485.71.83.70.40.9139.53.458.8169.21.07.41.82.693.41.913.91
17、6.213.018.316.218.316.313.89.416.816.618.426.812.114.212.316.813.016.314.311.48.714.915.616.925.37.29.56.312.48.011.810.58.25.411.29.212.04.56.68.46.011.47.110.69.37.15.210.18.210.94.313,8962,2063,6965,1289,4459,4236,5902,2492,1964,1475,9051,6883,095EUROPE: AGROCHEMICALSICLK+SSyngentaYaraHoldHoldBuy
18、HoldUSDEURUSDNOK46.335.1370.4283.045.032.0430.0300.01.12.823.637.71.12.927.331.211.212.617.07.511.112.114.79.18.56.711.74.98.57.110.15.215,5558,67136,77414,239EUROPE: PHARMA CHEMSBayerLonzaBuyHoldEURCHF72.448.3786.043.05.434.45.904.813.311.012.310.110.27.68.66.377,4452,698US: MAJORSCelaneseDowDuPont
19、PPGLyondellBasellBuyHoldBuyBuyBuy$42.531.044.0125.253.045.031.054.0132.060.03.71.93.57.95.24.22.23.97.75.911.316.712.615.910.210.113.811.116.49.17.26.07.78.35.66.65.46.58.74.96,71936,27641,02719,21030,344US: AGROCHEMICALSMosaicMonsantoPotash Corp.HoldBuyHold$55.689.540.660.0100.045.04.73.73.55.34.33
20、.911.820.711.610.420.810.46.310.46.65.511.05.625,24740,96334,893US: INDUSTRIAL GASAir ProductsPraxairAirgasBuyBuyHold$83.0107.589.795.0118.096.05.45.64.65.86.25.515.519.319.714.317.316.58.611.510.48.110.78.917,63332,0935,484US: SPECIALTYAlbemarleCytecValsparBuyBuyHold$59.369.559.564.075.064.04.52.73
21、.35.04.93.813.225.714.512.014.315.98.410.48.77.57.99.25,3303,2084,351ASIALG ChemHanwha ChemicalHonam PetrochemicalHuchemsBuySellHoldBuyKRWKRWKRWKRW3300001845023700025150350000150002200003000021395117014310151423510170118305202115.415.816.616.614.010.812.912.49.28.27.99.78.56.56.27.42268624277024956S
22、ource: Datastream, Deutsche Bank estimates. Syngenta Share price is in Swiss Francs but reporting is in US dollars, ICL report in US$ while the stock price are in ILS. *For Johnson Matthey FY12E is March ending 2013.For Airgas FY12E is March ending 2013. For Mosaic FY12E is May ending 2013. For Mons
23、anto FY12E is Aug ending 2012. For additional information on all stocks mentioned here please refer to our website at:http:/Page2Deutsche Bank AG/London14 December 2012Global Chemicals WeeklyEurope: valuation & newsflowChemicals Alert: After the close on December 11, DuPont provided 2013 EPSguidance
24、 of up “low-to-mid single digits”, or $3.85-$4.00 (6% below currentconsensus). Sales are expected to be up low single digits in 2013. The entireshortfall is due to TiO2. DuPont also announced i) that Q4 EPS would come inat the high end of the $0.02-$0.07, ii) customer destocking in Q3 has largelyaba
25、ted, although inventories at the producer level remain elevated (c.100 days)- in line with our view that inventories are not at very low levels which thereforeis likely to lead to continued mini destock/restock cycles, and iii) they plan a$1B share buyback.Victrex (VCTX.L, BUY): Victrex reported sol
26、id H2 results with PBT increasing5% YoY, which was broadly in line with consensus. The outlook was notquantified but management noted that growth drivers remain strong across allend markets and a further signal of this confidence was provided with a 15%increase in the full year dividend. The capacit
27、y expansion plans were againhighlighted with BDF capacity (PEEK raw material) due onstream in 2013 andnew PEEK capacity in early 2015. At 16x 14E P/E the stock may not look cheapon traditional multiples but with structural growth, sector leading returns andthe potential for further cash return in me
28、dium term, we have a BUY.Deutsche Bank AG/LondonPage3Page4DeutscheBankAG/LondonGlobalChemicalsWeekly14December2012Figure 4: European ValuationsCompanyMkt Cap US$Rec.CurPriceTargetP/EEV/EBITDAEV/SalesFCF Yield %Dividend Yield%Bulk13/12/1212E11.213E10.514E9.612E6.613E6.114E5.512E0.913E0.914E0.812E3.0%
29、13E6.9%14E8.8%12E2.5%13E2.9%14E3.3%ArkemaBASFLanxessSolvaySynthomer6,52985,2697,26311,1681,053Buy EURBuy EURBuy EURHold EURHold GBp81.271.867.5106.4192.092.079.080.097.0175.010.812.99.813.49.09.811.58.714.18.68.710.57.613.27.96.26.46.46.77.15.75.95.76.76.65.05.45.06.35.81.01.00.81.00.80.91.00.80.90.
30、70.81.00.70.90.72.0%5.6%3.9%4.8%-1.4%6.1%6.9%5.6%5.7%10.1%9.8%8.2%9.3%6.0%10.4%2.0%3.6%1.3%3.1%2.9%2.5%3.8%1.8%3.1%3.3%3.2%4.1%2.2%3.3%3.9%Industrial Gases17.815.714.19.48.27.52.22.01.83.0%4.2%4.8%2.3%2.5%2.7%Air LiquideLinde38,48730,670Hold EURBuy EUR95.5133.5101.0160.018.916.717.414.115.712.59.59.
31、38.77.87.97.12.32.22.11.91.91.73.2%2.7%4.1%4.2%4.6%5.0%2.5%2.1%2.7%2.2%3.0%2.4%Specialties16.514.812.58.98.17.72.01.91.80.4%3.8%4.6%2.6%2.9%3.3%AkzoNobelAZ Electronic MatClariantCrodaDSM13,8962,2063,6965,1289,445Buy EURBuy GBpHold CHFHold GBPHold EUR45.5358.511.62344.044.856.0450.011.52350.043.013.9
32、16.213.018.316.212.114.212.316.813.010.712.211.115.312.27.29.56.312.48.06.68.46.011.47.15.97.35.610.46.70.83.10.73.31.00.82.80.73.10.90.82.50.72.90.9-3.9%4.9%2.4%4.0%4.6%4.6%5.7%5.4%4.6%5.9%6.2%6.6%4.9%5.0%7.5%3.2%2.1%2.6%2.6%3.4%3.3%2.5%2.6%3.1%3.5%3.5%2.9%2.7%3.4%3.6%Givaudan9,423SellCHF959.5850.0
33、18.316.314.611.810.69.62.42.32.14.1%4.7%5.3%2.6%2.9%3.2%Johnson MattheyKemiraLenzingSymriseUmicoreVictrex6,5902,2492,1964,1475,9051,688Buy GBPBuy EURBuy EURHold EURHold EURBuy GBP2413.011.464.027.140.31581.02700.013.580.026.038.01825.016.313.89.416.816.618.414.311.48.714.915.616.912.610.48.113.613.9
34、15.310.58.25.411.29.212.09.37.15.210.18.210.98.36.45.19.37.59.92.01.00.92.22.05.71.91.01.02.11.85.31.70.90.92.01.74.86.9%4.2%-2.9%4.6%6.1%2.9%3.8%7.6%-4.9%6.1%6.2%2.9%4.8%8.8%-7.6%6.5%4.4%2.9%2.3%4.6%2.7%2.3%2.6%2.4%2.7%4.9%2.9%2.6%2.7%2.6%3.0%5.2%3.1%2.8%3.1%2.9%Wacker3,095SellEUR48.237.026.825.3na
35、4.54.3na0.70.7na-32.4%-3.4%na0.9%1.0%naAgrochemicals12.111.811.57.97.77.52.01.91.95.7%4.1%3.8%3.8%3.8%3.8%ICLK+SSyngentaYara15,5558,67136,77414,239Hold USDHold EURBuy USDHold NOK46.335.1370.4283.045.032.0430.0300.011.212.617.07.511.112.114.79.110.612.513.09.78.56.711.74.98.57.110.15.28.17.78.85.32.5
36、1.82.71.02.41.92.41.02.42.02.20.95.6%1.1%5.2%11.0%4.6%-5.3%6.2%10.9%5.2%-6.3%7.0%9.4%6.3%3.9%2.4%2.7%6.3%3.4%2.7%2.7%6.6%3.1%3.0%2.7%Hybrids12.211.210.38.97.56.71.61.51.37.0%7.2%10.0%3.4%3.5%3.6%BayerLonza77,4452,698Buy EURHold CHF72.448.486.043.013.311.012.310.111.29.510.27.68.66.37.75.81.91.31.71.
37、21.61.13.6%10.5%8.5%5.9%9.2%10.9%2.4%4.4%2.6%4.4%2.8%4.4%Sector Average14.513.311.78.37.67.11.81.71.62.4%4.7%5.8%2.8%3.0%3.3%Notes:1) FCF defined as free cashflow before acquisitions, dividends and share buyback programmes but after restructuring payments. 2) FCF Yield is defined as FCF / Market Cap
38、Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Syngenta Share price is in Swiss Francs but reporting is in US dollars, ICL report in US$ while the stock price are in ILS. *For Johnson Matthey FY12E is March ending 2013. For Victrex FY12E is September ending 2012.DeutscheBankAG/LondonPage5GlobalChemicalsWeekly14De
39、cember2012Figure 5: European chemical sector financial performanceCompanySalesNetdebtNet Debt/EBITDABV/ShareEBIT MarginEBITDA MarginCFRoARoCERoE12E13E14E12E12E12E12E13E14E12E13E14E12E13E14E12E13E14E12E13E14EBulk11.211.713.015.716.217.718.819.320.317.618.519.218.218.318.1Arkema (Euro)6,4766,7017,0058
40、340.836.8710.711.211.715.415.816.319.419.720.817.317.618.919.518.417.9BASF (Euro)77,643 80,828 75,937 10,6750.928.8811.612.414.016.016.618.620.120.721.718.619.720.419.319.719.5Lanxess (Euro)Solvay (Euro)Symthomer (GBP)9,118129811,1649,595132551,22310,050136911,293141913561851.20.71.430.7390.190.939.
41、39.59.59.98.79.310.39.09.413.315.911.513.815.111.414.115.311.516.711.314.417.511.014.618.211.415.218.010.518.919.29.918.320.410.519.118.48.819.118.18.121.118.08.419.9Industrial Gases15.115.816.224.024.424.615.616.717.515.015.416.313.113.714.1Air Liquide (Euro)Linde (Euro)15,201 16,287 17,56315,232 1
42、7,297 18,4715,3827,6391.42.232.6671.3716.713.216.914.617.115.024.723.124.923.825.124.115.815.316.417.117.217.814.315.814.916.115.716.914.910.914.912.315.212.8Specialties13.314.014.518.319.019.416.717.418.116.017.218.116.216.716.7AkzoNobel (Euro)16,476 16,975 17,6022,4281.360.468.69.09.611.812.212.81
43、7.418.219.412.314.716.19.712.813.8AZ Electronic (US$)Clariant (CHF)Croda(GBP)7957,8211,0638627,9981,1209508,2391,1932841,7311661.11.90.62.0210.10230.3319.07.523.820.27.624.221.57.924.633.111.626.933.411.727.333.811.927.717.38.929.619.49.130.421.99.431.113.88.034.516.28.235.319.58.636.117.66.655.619.
44、07.546.920.88.141.6DSM9,21510,090 10,4011,4481.335.857.38.28.312.313.113.111.011.912.28.69.910.37.79.19.2Givaudan (CHF)JMAT (GBp)KEMIRA (Euro)Symrise (Euro)Umicore (Euro)Victrex (GBp)4,2092,7132,2281,7172,4742204,3462,8432,2751,7862,4952354,5203,1802,3521,8582,6252581,250438519419150-841.50.82.01.20
45、.3-0.8403.31729.289.008.1215.48323.2813.815.27.215.115.142.814.516.08.815.915.743.515.216.09.516.216.643.620.319.511.820.021.247.121.220.413.420.722.348.521.920.314.121.023.048.512.718.510.617.014.245.313.719.012.218.215.043.114.719.813.219.015.540.213.521.49.216.215.350.114.821.911.017.516.145.216.
46、223.012.118.317.041.613.120.39.219.014.229.213.920.211.019.214.726.614.720.111.518.815.125.1Agrochemicals19.719.819.724.224.324.222.221.921.826.626.426.526.024.323.0ICL (US$)K+S (Euro)6,8143,8917,0704,0307,3844,1611,509-1360.8-0.12.5917.1125.221.124.620.824.819.829.427.328.827.029.026.027.719.225.81
47、6.825.214.531.721.629.219.428.015.738.416.234.615.232.813.5Syngenta (US$)Yara (NOK)14,224 15,115 16,16583,583 81,714 83,3487732,5320.20.190.57171.118.216.719.614.220.412.422.620.924.018.524.716.720.024.021.920.823.318.826.225.029.420.131.917.725.220.525.615.125.112.8Sector Average14.415.015.620.020.
48、421.118.519.019.618.819.420.018.518.418.1Notes:1) BV/Share adjusted for previously written-off goodwill.2) EBITA and EBITDA margins shown on an underlying basis where possible3) CFRoA is defined as EBITDA divided by Total Assets (adjusted for Goodwill write-offs) minus Cash4) RoCE defined as EBITA d
49、ivided by Total Shareholder Funds (adjusted for Goodwill write-offs), Net Debt and other long-term items5) RoE defined as pre goodwill net income divided by Total Shareholder funds (adjusted for Goodwill write-offs)Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank estimates, Syngenta Share price is in Swiss Franc
50、s but reporting is in US dollars, ICL report in US$ while the stock price are in ILS. Croda BV/Share is in Pence. *For Johnson Matthey FY12E is March ending 2013. For Victrex FY12E is September ending2012.14 December 2012Global Chemicals WeeklyFigure 6: Absolute stock price performance (%) as on 13
51、December 20121 WK2 WK3 WK4 WK5 WK6 WK7 WK8 WKWacker ChemieSynthomerUmicoreGivaudan NSymriseK+SLonza GroupBASFAkzoNobelArkemaAir LiquideYara InternationalCroda InternationalVictrexSolvayClariantJohnson MattheyLindeDSM KoninklijkeBayerSyngentaLanxessICLAZ Electronic Mats.(Di)13.23.22.92.62.41.91.91.71
52、.71.51.00.90.70.60.50.20.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.8-0.8-1.9-2.913.38.81.23.70.81.99.34.04.64.60.90.6-0.32.3-0.72.81.10.70.33.4-0.52.7-1.5-2.211.614.32.64.92.57.211.37.48.58.41.84.71.84.19.112.15.43.66.15.51.94.40.8-1.315.018.23.55.15.25.614.413.310.510.75.710.02.98.116.016.36.25.710.810.65.212.12.4-1.012.815
53、.91.84.21.8-1.25.012.57.510.95.79.76.110.413.814.06.33.610.89.32.69.0-1.11.413.227.2-0.23.2-1.4-3.91.810.46.412.13.86.07.910.213.416.95.11.711.77.31.84.2-4.6-0.213.226.52.33.8-0.3-1.74.912.89.814.24.94.02.411.616.17.07.13.614.78.64.78.9-0.76.71.320.5-0.51.8-1.4-5.40.68.26.310.4-1.0-2.80.812.311.72.6
54、5.51.012.14.46.710.0-2.58.1Source: DatastreamPage6Deutsche Bank AG/London14 December 2012Global Chemicals WeeklyUS: valuation & newsflowFigure 7: US chemicals sector valuationPriceTargetEst. EarningsP/EEV/EBITDAMkt CapRatingCur.13/12/2012priceFY12EFY13EFY12EFY13EFY12EFY13E(US$ m)MAJOR CHEMICALSCelan
55、eseDowDupontEastmanPPGLyondellBasellKronosWestlakeBuyHoldBuyBuyBuyBuyHoldHold$42.531.044.063.8125.253.016.276.845.031.054.080.0132.060.014.055.03.751.863.485.407.905.202.184.604.202.253.956.257.655.851.405.5011.316.712.611.815.910.27.416.710.113.811.110.216.49.111.514.07.26.07.77.08.35.64.67.46.65.4
56、6.55.68.74.96.06.36,71936,27641,0279,08719,21030,3441,8725,074AGROCHEMICALSMosaicMonsantoPotash CorpHoldBuyHold$55.689.540.660.0100.045.04.73.703.505.34.303.9011.820.711.610.420.810.46.310.46.65.511.05.625,24740,96334,893INDUSTRIAL GASAir ProductsPraxairAirgasBuyBuyHold$83.0107.589.795.0118.096.05.4
57、45.574.555.806.205.4515.519.319.714.317.316.58.611.510.48.110.78.917,63332,0935,484SPECIALTY CHEMICALSAshlandAlbemarleCytecEcolabValsparBuyBuyBuyBuyHold$76.159.369.570.759.590.064.075.077.064.06.724.502.702.983.297.554.954.853.553.7511.313.225.723.714.510.112.014.319.915.96.68.410.411.78.76.07.57.91
58、0.39.25,9345,3303,20820,6764,351Source: Datastream & Deutsche Bank estimates. =P/E are calculated on pre-goodwill EPS please see https:/ for further details anddisclosures. For Airgas FY12E is March ending 2013. For Mosaic FY12E is May ending 2013. For Monsanto FY12E is August ending 2012. For Air P
59、roducts FY12Eis September ending 2012.Eastman Chemical (EMN.N, BUY): Eastmans investor meeting was upbeat asthe company reaffirmed 12 EPS guidance, provided in-line 13 EPS guidanceand established an $8/shr 15 EPS target (15% CAGR 13-15). We believe the$8 target will ultimately prove conservative due
60、 to Solutia. Less than 6 monthsinto this $5B acquisition, significant benefits are being realized from thecombination such that Eastman is highly confident it will materially exceed itscost and sales synergies. With Solutia transforming Eastman to a specialtychemical company, the innovation pipeline
61、 revitalized (NPV of $1B in 15E vs$850MM in 12E and $700MM in 11) and valuation an attractive 10.2x 13EEPS vs peers at 12x, reiterate Buy.3M (MMM.N, HOLD): 3M had an upbeat but in-line 13 outlook call with themidpoint of 13 EPS guidance in-line with consensus (and up 8% YoY), the 13EPS guidance rang
62、e up 6-10% YoY, 13 organic sales growth of 2-5% slightlybelow the companys long-term organic revenue growth target of 4-6% due toa challenging macro backdrop and Q4 12 EPS guidance reaffirmed (up 2-7%YoY). While 3Ms innovation-driven growth model remains strong with salesfrom new products a record 3
63、3% in 12E (vs 32% in 11 and 21% in 05), withglobal growth remaining subdued and valuation a fair 13.6x 13E EPS, wemaintain our Hold.Deutsche Bank AG/LondonPage714 December 2012Global Chemicals WeeklyDuPont (DD.N, BUY): While the midpoint of DuPonts 13 EPS guidance was6% below consensus, the entire s
64、hortfall was due to TiO2. We note that TiO2weakness is not a surprise, TiO2 is becoming a smaller portion of DuPontsearnings (10% in 13E vs 19% in 12E and 24% in 11) and, while a big earningsdelta, TiO2 has a small impact on valuation as investors attach a low multipleto TiO2 earnings. More importan
65、tly, the rest of DuPont is performing well with13E pretax earnings and EPS ex-TiO2 up 12% and high teens, respectively, andthe announcement of a $1B share buyback a strong statement thatmanagement believes its shares are cheap. With valuation an attractive 11.1x13E EPS, Buy.Railcar & PetroChemical U
66、pdate: The 4-week moving average of chemicalrailcar loadings increased 1.2% in Week #48 (ended December 1) vs. a 0.3%increase the prior week. Loading YTD are down 0.94%. Chemical railcarloadings represent 23% of total US chemical shipment tonnage (followed bytrucks, barges, and pipelines), offering
67、a measurement of broader chemicalindustry activity and demand trends. The more volatile measure of weeklyloadings increased 2.3% YoY (versus a 3.2% increase in the prior week) andincreased 25.7% sequentially (vs. a 10.1% decrease in the prior week).Within in the chemicals sector, our top specialty c
68、hemical idea is Ashland(ASH, Buy, $76.39, TP $90), our top differentiated chemical idea is EastmanChemical (EMN, Buy, $61.85, TP $70) and our top commodity chemical idea isLyondellBasell (LYB, Buy, $53.81, TP $60).PPG Industries (PPG.N, BUY): We are trimming our Q4 EPS estimate for PPGby $0.05 to $1
69、.50, up 12% to reflect an outage at its chlor-alkali facility in LakeCharles, LA. Given that PPG is in the midst of divesting its chlor-alkali business(on track to close in Q1), we view the outage as immaterial to PPG shares.With the Q4 reduction, our full-year 2012E EPS estimate is $7.90 (from $7.9
70、5),up 15% YoY. Our 2013 EPS estimate is unchanged at $7.65, down 3% YoY. Our2013 estimate reflects PPG choosing the spit-off option for the 35MM GGCshares it will receive as part of the divestiture of its commodity chemicalbusiness and $1B of share buybacks with the cash proceeds from thetransaction
71、. With valuation attractive at 16.2x 13 EPS, reiterate Buy.Page8Deutsche Bank AG/London14 December 2012Global Chemicals WeeklyAsia: valuation & newsflowFigure 8: Asia chemicals sector valuationPriceTargetEst. EarningsP/EEV/EBITDAMkt CapRatingCur.13/12/12priceFY12EFY13EFY12EFY13EFY12EFY13E(US$ m)MAJO
72、R CHEMICALSLG ChemsHanwha ChemicalHonam PetrochemicalHuchemsBuySellHoldBuyKRWKRWKRWKRW3300001845023700025150350000150002200003000021,3951,17014,3101,51423,5101,70118,3052,02115.415.816.616.614.010.812.912.49.28.27.99.78.56.56.27.422,6862,4277,024956Source: Datastream & Deutsche Bank estimates, =P/E
73、are calculated on pre-goodwill EPS (except those marked with*).Deutsche Bank AG/LondonPage914 December 2012Global Chemicals WeeklyGlobal valuation and risksIn most cases we value the companies based on a DCF valuation to capture the long-term free-cash-flow prospects. The WACC will vary depending on
74、 the stocks volatility,the cost of debt and capital structure. Equity risk premiums and risk-free rates tend tobe the same across the sector. Long-term growth rates do vary depending on eachcompanys long-term growth prospects. For companies offering a broad portfolio, wetend to complement our DCF an
75、alysis with a SoTP, using peer group EV/EBITDA and PEmultiples and a conglomerate discount wherever relevant.Key downside/upside risks for the sector are higher/lower raw material (mostly oilbased) costs which cant/can be passed through to customers through higher prices(due to increasing/decreasing
76、 competition or weak/strong demand/GDP), FX (generallyweaker/higher US$) and weaker/higher GDP.Page10Deutsche Bank AG/London14 December 2012Global Chemicals WeeklyReporting dates & eventsFigure 9: Reporting dates & eventsDec 20121724182519262027212831Jan 20131234Mosaic Q2 13 Earning Release7891011Mo
77、nsanto Q1 131421281522DuPont Q4 12291623APD Q1 13 Earning Release3017243M Q4 12 Earning Release311825Dow Q4 12 Earning ReleaseFeb 2013145Givaudan FY 126Syngenta FY 127Umicore FY 128Victrex AGM and IMS1112131415Yara FY 12Air Liquide FY 12Clariant FY 12Solvay FY 121819202122DSM FY 12AkzoNobel FY 12252
78、6BASF FY 122728Bayer FY 12Arkema FY 12Mar 2013145678Henkel FY 12Linde FY 121112131415Symrise FY 12K+S Group FY 121819202122Lanxess FY 122526272829Apr 2013Clariant AGMMosaic Q3 13 Earning Release12345Monsanto Q2 13815Henkel AGM916Givaudan Q1 13 sales10171118Syngenta Q1 13 sales1219AkzoNobel Q1 1322Ya
79、ra Q1 1323Syngenta AGM2425Bayer Q1 1326BASF Q1 13 & AM*Dow Q1 13 Earning ReleaseBayer ASM*AkzoNobel AGM2930Umicore Q1 13 & AGMWacker Q1 13Source: Company Data NOTE: Dates are subject to change, * Annual Stockholders Meeting, * Anual MeetingDeutsche Bank AG/LondonPage11100014 December 2012Global Chem
80、icals WeeklyAppendix 1Important DisclosuresAdditional information available upon requestFor disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of thisresearch, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure l
81、ook-up page on ourwebsite at http:/ CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about thesubject issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receiveany compensati
82、on for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Tim Jones/Martin Dunwoodie/VirginieBoucher-Ferte/Oliver Reiff/David Begleiter/Shawn ParkEquity rating keyEquity rating dispersion and banking relationshipsBuy: Based on a current 12- month view of totalshare-holder return (TSR = perc
83、entage change inshare price from current price to projected target price16001400120047 %48 %plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend thatinvestors buy the stock.Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return, we recommend that investors sell thestockHold: We take a neutra
84、l view on the stock 12-months800600400200029 %Buy26 %Hold5 %24 %Sellout and, based on this time horizon, do notrecommend either a Buy or Sell.Notes:Companies CoveredCos. w/ Banking Relationship1. Newly issued research recommendations andtarget prices always supersede previously publishedresearch.2.
85、Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were:Buy: Expected total return (including dividends)of 10% or more over a 12-month periodGlobal UniverseHold:Expectedtotalreturn(includingdividends) between -10% and 10% over a 12-month periodSell: Expected total return (including dividends)of -10% or w
86、orse over a 12-month periodDeutsche Bank AG/LondonPage1314 December 2012Global Chemicals WeeklyRegulatory Disclosures1. Important Additional Conflict DisclosuresAside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https:/ under theDisclosures Lookup and Legal tabs. Inve
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