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1、政府统计中的软统计政府统计中的软统计及体系建设与发展问及体系建设与发展问题题OutlineDevelopment Background of Soft Data Statistics软数据统计发展的背景软数据统计发展的背景 Soft data statistics in the statistical development of Beijing北京市统计发展过程中的软数据统计北京市统计发展过程中的软数据统计 Analysis on development demand of soft data statistics in the international metropolitan stat
2、istics of Beijing北京市国际大都市统计中的软数据统计发展需求分析北京市国际大都市统计中的软数据统计发展需求分析 Development and construction of soft data statistics in the international metropolitan statistical system of Beijing北京市国际大都市统计体系中的软数据统计发展建设北京市国际大都市统计体系中的软数据统计发展建设 In reality, the statistical function is actually not only the post-event
3、statistics of different activities, but the active influence of the pre-event statistical function will also mean a new change in the statistical function in terms of statistical ideology. By means of human subject empirical assessment, subjective rational exploration and measurement, activity featu
4、re classification and behavioral feature classification, the activity behavioral statistics, value conception statistics, development potential statistics, proper relation statistics, integrated evaluation statistics, etc enhances the human measurement of the quantification extent and quantification
5、 relation of objective existence and development and extends and elevates the application of statistical instruments.最新发展的许多事实表明，统计的作用确实不仅仅是各种活动的事后统计，事前的统事前的统计作用能否产生积极影响，在统计思想上也意味着对统计功能的一种新变换。计作用能否产生积极影响，在统计思想上也意味着对统计功能的一种新变换。活动行为统计、价值观统计、发展潜力统计、适度关系统计、综合评价统计等，借助人们主观经验判断、主观理性挖掘评测、活动特征分类、行为特征分类等方式方法，
6、增强人们关于客观存在和发展的定量程度和定量关系的测度，扩展和提升统计工具的使用。针对今天统计发展的现实，我觉得这些统计值得总结和规范发展，因此，本文提出专题的研究，并把这些统计统称为软数据统计软数据统计。I. Development Background of Soft Data Statistics 软数据统计发展的背景软数据统计发展的背景In view of the governmental statistics, the development and cooperation of soft data statistics is extremely crucial for combina
7、tion with the construction of soft strength emphasized by the state. Today, the international competitiveness is the focus of initiating the national concern and study on the soft strength. The international competitiveness is composed of hard competitiveness and soft competitiveness. 从政府统计工作来看，如何与目
8、前国家特别强调的软实力建设结合起来，可能非常重要和关键的是软数据统计的发展与配合。今天的国际竞争力，是引发国家软实力关注和研究的集中点。国际竞争力由硬竞争力和软竞争力软竞争力组成。 Soft competitiveness is mainly the statistics and evaluation of the economic institution, economic policy, environment, market, human resource, social security, information, globalization, value conception, cu
9、lture, education idea, risk consciousness, etc.软竞争力主要是对经济制度、经济政策、环境、市场、人才、社会保障、信息化、全球化、价值观、文化、教育观念、风险意识等的统计测评。软竞争力与硬竞争力的关系越来越密切，前者成为后者的重要解释因素和管理因素。 To take the lead in the world in constructing the internationalize metropolis, Beijing must attach great importance to the construction of soft data sta
10、tistics, including the integration with the governmental statistical system and enhancement of the active function of the governmental statistics in the economic and social development.北京国际化大都市建设过程中，如果走在世界的前列，必须重视软数据统计的建设，包括如何融入现有政府统计体系之中，增强政府统计对经济社会发展的积极作用。 II. Soft data statistics in the statistic
11、al development of Beijing 北京市统计发展过程中的软数据统计北京市统计发展过程中的软数据统计Beijing Municipality has developed to a great extent, which has reflected the innovative development in various aspects, especially the construction and development of the governmental soft data statistics. For instance, the “Beijing Social E
12、motion and Public Opinion Survey Network”进入新世纪，北京市政府统计工作有了很大的发展，许多方面体现创新性发展，其中最为突出的是政府软数据统计的建设和发展，例如建立“北京市社情民意调查网” 。Based on the social emotion and public opinion survey, Beijing has also introduced the satisfaction statistical analysis model and method. Especially, in combination with the telephone
13、 survey system and relevant statistical soft calculation system, it can resolve various hot issues.在社情民意统计调查基础上，引入满意度统计分析模型和方法，特别是与电话辅助调查系统和相应统计软件运算的系统结合，可以解决现实经济社会发展过程中倍受企业界、政府部门和学术研究界关注的各种热点问题，以及针对一些目标的满意度的测评，产生了非常好的作用，展示了统计的新作用，也是统计以快速、系统、客观、深刻反映实际存在的统计研究的发展方向。In addition, under the arrangement o
14、f the national statistical survey system, there are also the enterprise prosperity survey and some special questionnaire surveys.此外，在国家统计调查系统安排下，还有企业景气调查，以及一些专题的问卷调查。总体上看，北京市统计局软数据统计调查和分析研究，与事后的硬数据统计内容相比，其发展还没有被重视，统计工作不固定，也没有长期统计数据的积累概念，更没有与现有硬数据统计体系的配合与融合成新的统计体系的趋向。III.Analysis on development deman
15、d of soft data statistics in the international metropolitan statistics of Beijing北京市国际大都市统计中的软数据统计发展需求分析北京市国际大都市统计中的软数据统计发展需求分析Beijing International Metropolitan Statistical System is a public statistical system oriented for the functions of Beijing municipal governmental system mainly for the stati
16、stics of economic operation and development and the social status and development. For a long period of time, the governmental statistics has been the post-event statistics possibly due to the conventional consciousness that such statistics is scientific and regular, while the soft data statistics s
17、eems to be incomparable with it. Like the development process of market economy, it needs to be technically supported as well as to be promoted by the newer and bigger demands. Will the governmental statistics need soft data statistics? What are the main demands? These are the important issues that
18、we need first to study constantly and follow up in developing the statistics.北京市国际大都市统计体系是在北京市政府系统功能定位下的公共统计体系，主要是经济运行与经济发展的统计、社会现状与社会发展的统计。长期以来，政府统计是事后的统计，可能比较重的传统意识是这种统计是科学的和规范的，而软数据统计似乎还不能与之相比。统计事业的发展，与市场经济发展过程一样，她需要技术方法的供给水平支持，也需要新的更大的需求的推动。政府统计到底需要不需要软数据统计，主要需求是什么？这些是我们发展统计首先要不断研究和跟踪的重要问题。With
19、the support from the great development of information network technology, it shows increasingly active and strong development power. The unitary post-event statistics, i.e., the hard data statistics can no longer comply with the requirement of the times development, especially failing to meet the ne
20、eds of the increasingly active and innovative economy and social development with emotional complex.在当今信息网络技术大发展的支持下，显示出日益的活跃和强劲的发展力，单一的事后统计即硬数据统计，已经远远不适应时代发展的要求，特别是不能满足日益活跃创新的经济和情感复杂社会发展的需要。Following factors are important in promoting the governmental and social demands for soft data statistics. 1.
21、For the monitoring and forecasting of economic performance and development, it is necessary to develop various surveys such as the enterprise investment intention survey and enterprise economic prosperity assessment and the relevant statistical index developed from such surveys. 2.The evaluation of
22、institutional factors and policies and the relevant analytical studies of behavior shall be supported with the statistical survey through the qualified and quantified evaluation, classification comparison or associate behaviors explanation of the participants and interest parties in market economy.
23、3.The need to measure the behavior and activities of subjects, such as innovation activities and behavior of enterprises, becomes the important supplement to the R&D and surpasses increasingly the function of innovation statistics with R&D as the focus. 4.Due to the requirement to satisfy the first
24、target of elevating the peoples living quality, the governmental development target and particular measures shall be interactive with the experiences of common people. In terms the customer satisfaction of the market as well as in various aspects of economic development and of institutional construc
25、tion, it is necessary to use the satisfaction degree of residents to feed back accurate objective information. This is an import aspect for the soft data statistics to play a part. 5.With the development and progress of human society, such soft factors as culture, ethics and value conception play an
26、 important role in improving the social cohesion, innovation power and stability as well as are the source power for economic development and social progress. To develop energetically such source power, it is necessary to study its objective existence and development pulse and the social survival re
27、lation, for which the soft data statistics is the only statistical tool. 6.The effective control, performance examination and democratic supervision in strengthening the management are the important statistical measures. The soft data statistics also plays an important role.推动政府和社会对软数据统计需求的重要方面。推动政府
28、和社会对软数据统计需求的重要方面。1、经济运行和发展方面的监测、预测，需要发展多种像企业投资意向调查、企业经济景气判断的调查，以及、经济运行和发展方面的监测、预测，需要发展多种像企业投资意向调查、企业经济景气判断的调查，以及由此类调查所发展的相应统计指数。由此类调查所发展的相应统计指数。2、制度因素和政策评估，以及相应的行为分析研究，需要市场经济参与者和当事人的定性定量化评估、类别、制度因素和政策评估，以及相应的行为分析研究，需要市场经济参与者和当事人的定性定量化评估、类别比较或关联行为说明的统计调查支持。比较或关联行为说明的统计调查支持。3、测度主体行为活动的需要，例如企业创新活动和行为，已
29、经成为、测度主体行为活动的需要，例如企业创新活动和行为，已经成为R&D统计的重要补充，而且，越来越超越统计的重要补充，而且，越来越超越以以R&D为核心的创新统计作用。为核心的创新统计作用。4、满足人民生活质量提高第一目标的需要，提出了政府发展目标和具体措施与社会和老百姓的感受互动。不、满足人民生活质量提高第一目标的需要，提出了政府发展目标和具体措施与社会和老百姓的感受互动。不仅仅在市场的客户满意度，而且在经济社会发展的许多方面，以及制度建设的许多方面，都需要居民的满意度仅仅在市场的客户满意度，而且在经济社会发展的许多方面，以及制度建设的许多方面，都需要居民的满意度来反馈准确的客观信息。这是软数
30、据统计发挥作用的重要方面。来反馈准确的客观信息。这是软数据统计发挥作用的重要方面。5、随着人类社会的发展和进步，文化、伦理道德、价值观等软性因素，对于社会凝聚力、创新力、稳定力有、随着人类社会的发展和进步，文化、伦理道德、价值观等软性因素，对于社会凝聚力、创新力、稳定力有重要的作用，也是经济发展和社会进步的源动力，大力发展这种源动力就要研究她的客观存在和发展脉络，以重要的作用，也是经济发展和社会进步的源动力，大力发展这种源动力就要研究她的客观存在和发展脉络，以及社会生存关系等等，软数据统计是唯一的统计工具。及社会生存关系等等，软数据统计是唯一的统计工具。6、加强管理过程的有效控制，绩效考核、民
31、主监督是重要的统计手段，其中软数据统计也发挥重要的作用。、加强管理过程的有效控制，绩效考核、民主监督是重要的统计手段，其中软数据统计也发挥重要的作用。IV.Development and construction of soft data statistics in the international metropolitan statistical system of Beijing北京市国际大都市统计体系中的软数据统计发展建设北京市国际大都市统计体系中的软数据统计发展建设In view of the realistic development status of China, three
32、lines are promoting the development of soft data statistics in the governmental statistical system: (1) elevate the requirement for the quality of existing statistical data; (2) elevate the reflecting capacity of the existing statistics; (3) satisfy the new requirements for the quantification of qua
33、litative issues in the complicated economic and social development.从我国现实发展情况看，三条线推动着政府统计体系中的软数据统计发展。第一条线是提升现有统计数据质量的要求；第二条线是提升现有统计反映能力；第三条线是满足经济社会发展复杂系统中定性问题定量化的新要求。 In view of elevating the quality of existing statistical data, in addition to strengthening the control over the statistical data coll
34、ection and introducing advanced technical method for statistical work, introduction of soft data statistics is also an important development direction. With the market economy developing further and market competition becoming fierce, the statistical information of micro enterprises and institutions
35、 is increasingly sensitive. Thus, total dependence on post-event statistics will not do. Based on the currently developed telecommunication technology and network technology, it is extremely easy to undertake the survey of soft data statistics. What are crucial are the construction of organization s
36、ystem for surveys and the design of statistical survey for different statistical issues under the particular background conditions of enterprises in contact or basic units for statistical work. The auxiliary technical measures for statistical survey can be the adoption of call-survey system or the s
37、pecial mobile reporting system for the statistical volunteers to provide statistical information service. In reality, with the modern developed telecommunication technology and network technology, we can absolutely find a new approach for the governmental statistics. Actually, we can explore a brand
38、 new way for construction and development of the governmental statistics: i.e., place the modern technology and information exchange mode as an important part of the governmental statistical system, accept the influence of information technology and network technology on social progress, separate pr
39、operly the statistical purpose and realization mode and gradually transit to the new system construction with the census data as the standard, soft data statistics as the routine work, statistical statements as assistance and statistical calculation model as support. 从第一条线的提升现有统计数据质量看，除了加强统计数据搜集过程控制
40、和引入先进统计技术从第一条线的提升现有统计数据质量看，除了加强统计数据搜集过程控制和引入先进统计技术方法之外，引进软数据统计也是一个重要的发展方向。因为随着市场经济的深入和市场竞争的方法之外，引进软数据统计也是一个重要的发展方向。因为随着市场经济的深入和市场竞争的激烈，微观企业单位的统计信息越来越敏感，因此，完全依靠事后统计是行不通的。激烈，微观企业单位的统计信息越来越敏感，因此，完全依靠事后统计是行不通的。基于目前发达的电信技术和网络技术，非常容易开展软数据统计调查，关键是调查的组织系统基于目前发达的电信技术和网络技术，非常容易开展软数据统计调查，关键是调查的组织系统建设，以及针对不同的统计
41、问题，深入联系企业或统计基层单位的具体背景条件的统计调查方建设，以及针对不同的统计问题，深入联系企业或统计基层单位的具体背景条件的统计调查方案设计，统计调查实现的技术辅助手段可以采用电话调查系统，或采用统计志愿者自动提供统案设计，统计调查实现的技术辅助手段可以采用电话调查系统，或采用统计志愿者自动提供统计信息服务的专用手机报告系统。计信息服务的专用手机报告系统。事实上，现代发展起来的电信技术和网络技术，完全可以使我们的政府统计体系走出一条新路。事实上，现代发展起来的电信技术和网络技术，完全可以使我们的政府统计体系走出一条新路。实际上，我们可以探索一种全新的政府统计建设发展方式，即把现代技术和信
42、息交流方式放在实际上，我们可以探索一种全新的政府统计建设发展方式，即把现代技术和信息交流方式放在政府统计体系建设的重要位置上，认可当代社会进步的信息技术和网络技术的影响，把统计目政府统计体系建设的重要位置上，认可当代社会进步的信息技术和网络技术的影响，把统计目的与实现的途径方式适当分开，逐步过渡以普查数据为基准，软数据统计为日常，统计报表为的与实现的途径方式适当分开，逐步过渡以普查数据为基准，软数据统计为日常，统计报表为辅，统计推算模型支持的新系统建设。辅，统计推算模型支持的新系统建设。In view of elevating the reflecting capacity of the ex
43、isting statistics, we shall extend to the statistics of economic and social activities based on the existing post-event statistical findings and generate a kind of system integrating the hard data statistics and soft data statistics as to raise the objective reflection capacity of the statistics abo
44、ut the realistic development features and law,. Enterprise innovation survey and enterprise prosperity survey are two typical examples as well as the centralize representation of the governmental statistical system in elevating the capacity of statistics to reflect the regional and industrial innova
45、tion and the short-term and long-term capacity of economic cycle. 从第二条线的提升现有统计反映能力看，我们要从现有的事从第二条线的提升现有统计反映能力看，我们要从现有的事后统计结果为主，向经济社会活动本身的统计扩展，并形成后统计结果为主，向经济社会活动本身的统计扩展，并形成一种硬数据统计与软数据统计的有机结合体系，提高统计对一种硬数据统计与软数据统计的有机结合体系，提高统计对现实发展特征和规律的客观反映能力。企业创新调查和企业现实发展特征和规律的客观反映能力。企业创新调查和企业景气调查是两个典型的例子，也是政府统计体系在提高统计
46、景气调查是两个典型的例子，也是政府统计体系在提高统计反映区域与产业创新能力和经济周期短期与长期能力的集中反映区域与产业创新能力和经济周期短期与长期能力的集中体现。体现。In view of satisfying the new requirements for the quantification of qualitative issues in the complicated economic and social development, the governmental statistics should start with the target of raising the peop
47、les living quality and cooperate with the mainstream work of the government to establish the routine soft data statistics. For instance, the regular statistical survey of resident culture, consciousness, ethics, value concept and their influential factors oriented for the construction of spiritual c
48、ivilization is a kind of new statistics of reflecting objectively, scientifically and systematically the social existence and influence, which should be regularly constructed in accordance with the technical and time-sequential requirements of soft data statistics method and which shall lead the Chi
49、nese whole cultural propaganda and education system to the times of scientific analysis. The statistical survey of resident satisfaction is also the important statistical instrument for promoting the social progress and democratic supervision as well as the scientific base for elevating the governme
50、ntal social security and scientific decision making. 从第三条线的满足经济社会发展复杂系统中定性问题定量化的从第三条线的满足经济社会发展复杂系统中定性问题定量化的新要求看，政府统计应该从提高人民生活质量目标出发，配合新要求看，政府统计应该从提高人民生活质量目标出发，配合政府主流工作，建立日常性的软数据统计。例如以精神文明建政府主流工作，建立日常性的软数据统计。例如以精神文明建设为方向的居民文化、意识、伦理、价值观及其影响因素的定设为方向的居民文化、意识、伦理、价值观及其影响因素的定期统计调查，是一种客观系统科学反映社会存在与影响的新型期统计调
51、查，是一种客观系统科学反映社会存在与影响的新型统计，应该按照软数据统计方法技术及时间序列等要求规范建统计，应该按照软数据统计方法技术及时间序列等要求规范建设，它将带领我国整个文化宣传教育系统走向科学分析的时代。设，它将带领我国整个文化宣传教育系统走向科学分析的时代。居民满意度统计调查工作，也是推进社会进步、民主监督的重居民满意度统计调查工作，也是推进社会进步、民主监督的重要统计工具，也是提升政府社会保障和科学决策的科学依据。要统计工具，也是提升政府社会保障和科学决策的科学依据。The development and construction of soft data statistics in
52、 Beijing International Metropolitan Statistical System is a new thing. . It has been developed in reality to some extent, has generated certain social effect and has been accepted by the relevant governmental departments, but further in-depth study in combination with the reality shall be required r
53、egarding its particular methods and techniques, especially how to include it into Beijing International Metropolitan Statistical In terms of crucial aspects, the construction may be focused on the following: 1.The development direction with the main target to enhance the analysis and regulation of e
54、conomic operation: it is mainly reflected in the construction as per economic cycle and prosperity monitoring, including enterprise prosperity survey, priority index, economic cycle assessment and other surveys of soft data statistics and preparation of relevant indices. 2.The development direction
55、with the main target to enhance the regional and industrial innovation capacity: mainly carry out regular enterprise innovation survey and analysis and study, including the enterprise innovation survey in agriculture, industry and service industry and preparation of relevant integrated indices. 北京市国
56、际大都市统计体系中的软数据统计发展建设是一个新生事物，尽管现北京市国际大都市统计体系中的软数据统计发展建设是一个新生事物，尽管现实有了一定的发展，也产生了一定的社会效果，也被政府有关部门有所认可，实有了一定的发展，也产生了一定的社会效果，也被政府有关部门有所认可，但是，她的方法技术细节，特别是如何纳入北京市政府大都市统计体系之中，但是，她的方法技术细节，特别是如何纳入北京市政府大都市统计体系之中，还需要进一步联系实际作出深入的研究。从抓主要方面看，可以在以下几个还需要进一步联系实际作出深入的研究。从抓主要方面看，可以在以下几个方面重点建设：方面重点建设：1、以增强经济运行分析与调控为主要目标的
57、发展方向。这主要体现在按照、以增强经济运行分析与调控为主要目标的发展方向。这主要体现在按照经济周期和景气监测方向建设，包括企业景气调查、先行指数、经济周期判经济周期和景气监测方向建设，包括企业景气调查、先行指数、经济周期判断等软数据统计调查和相关指数编制。断等软数据统计调查和相关指数编制。2、以增强区域与产业创新能力为主要目标的发展方向，主要是做好定期的、以增强区域与产业创新能力为主要目标的发展方向，主要是做好定期的企业创新调查和分析研究工作，包括农业、工业和服务业各个行业的企业创企业创新调查和分析研究工作，包括农业、工业和服务业各个行业的企业创新调查和相关创新综合指数的编制。新调查和相关创新
58、综合指数的编制。3.The development direction with the main target at environment protection and sustainable development: soft data statistical survey and index preparation of environment consciousness and protection behavior to enhance the consciousness of residents for environment protection and form excell
59、ent social atmosphere and social living habit. 4.The development direction with the main target to enhance the social cohesion and creativity: mainly the regular statistical survey and index preparation of residents culture, morality, ethics, value conception and influence. 5.The development directi
60、on with the main target to enhance the institutional innovation and the effective legal institutions: statistical survey and index preparation for main institutions and development satisfaction. 6.The development direction with the main target to encourage the governmental administration: mainly the
61、 soft data statistics survey and index preparation for governmental performance examination. 3、以环境保护和可持续发展为主要目标的发展方向，主要是环境意识与保、以环境保护和可持续发展为主要目标的发展方向，主要是环境意识与保护行为的软数据统计调查和指数编制，增强居民环境保护意识，形成良好的护行为的软数据统计调查和指数编制，增强居民环境保护意识，形成良好的社会氛围和社会生活习惯。社会氛围和社会生活习惯。4、以增强社会凝聚力和创造力为主要发展目标的发展方向，主要是定期的、以增强社会凝聚力和创造力为主要发展目标的发展方向，主要是定期的居民文化、道德、伦理、价值观及影响的统计调查和指数编制。居民文化、道德、伦理、价值观及影响的统计调查和指数编制。5、以增强制度创新和法制效果为主要目标的发展方向，主要制度和发展满、以增强制度创新和法制效果为主要目标的发展方向，主要制度和发展满意度调查和指数编制。意度调查和指数编制。6、以激励政府行政管理为主要发展目标的发展方向，主要是政府绩效考核、以激励政府行政管理为主要发展目标的发展方向，主要是政府绩效考核的软数据统计调查和指数编制。的软数据统计调查和指数编制。Thanks谢谢
