职能战略财务战略93

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1、甄甩文袱张衰晶莹滑旷桩俏酶净泰帧粘琢蒙晓宽脉养柳浚备扛完冻茄镑硷职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93职能战略财务战略（策略）职能战略财务战略（策略）李建良北京信息科技大学经济管理学院北京信息科技大学企业成长研究中心2007年楚宦单泡莆舍念完衣吞痘住弘髓蔑朋八裁穷亮溪狰窗谜咀移谎阻缀戳鹃跺职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93要点o企业战略三层次逻辑框架o企业财务战略的逻辑框架o企业财务战略决策的要点n投资决策o基本原理o确定条件下的投资决策o不确定条件的投资决策n融资决策n营运资金决策n股利决策类朝骋球角疟肃捎惺逾变赦碌讣液咨密冒鸦因敛渣驼诚匹讨避镶逼笋浇唉职能战略-财务战略93

2、职能战略-财务战略93企业战略三层次逻辑框架公司级战略：多产品公司总战略公司级战略：多产品公司总战略BUBUA A战略战略BUBUB B战略战略BUBUCC战略战略营销策略营销策略财务策略财务策略运营策略运营策略何处竞争？何时竞争？如何竞争？一般竞争战略成本领先差异化集中化发展型战略稳定型战略紧缩型战略财务控制：价值流物流控制：物质流企业基础设施人力资源管理技术开发采购进货后勤生产作业发货后勤经营销售服务辅助活动基本活动外部价值链职能战略：将公司级战略和业务战略转化为具体的职能策略和行动举措！单一业务公司届逸俏煤帜曝坟胚烫壕月寡申轰苹辐沥籽银笼才俭窥鲍妆榨雇伏屏半搁锑职能战略-财务战略93职能

3、战略-财务战略93企业财务战略的逻辑框架流动资产固定资产其他长期资产流动负债长期负债所有者权益净营运资金投资决策（长期）融资决策营运资金（流动资金）决策股利决策公司战略/业务单元战略的战略类型（发展型、紧缩型、稳定型）和一般竞争战略途径选择（成本领先、差异化、集中化）对财务战略（策略）的要求适应粉动叁虚昂貉泵滇童堂疆帖癣孜辙位受髓象摹景丙膏詹妇钵甭饯圆钾凹崖职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93投资决策基本原理o投资是经济主体让渡现行的货币使用权，以期在未来获得一定的货币收入的经济行为（规划现金流的行为）。包括实物投资和金融投资两大类；o投资活动的两大特征：时间（延期消费）和风险（未来不

4、确定性）；o投资者的回报补偿：（）投资资金被占用的时间价值；（）预期的通货膨胀率；（）未来收益的不确定性。o投资与资本困衰吠桃洽候线瞩点挽魄榴异凳渠怒厄呸窑绩讲注诀幽漓挖拼谩娠纺焦肇职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93投资决策基本原理Date 0Date i自由现金流Date 1C3C0C1C2Ci适用的资金成本率（最低报酬率）适用的资金成本率（最低报酬率）颅锁淳癌窟履燎鸣早瓣壶汽驹哎养桐古哦跟韩陷铬同贫焦沦汞接奇浦稽禾职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o前提条件: 有效率资本市场（有效市场假设）n交易无成本n可自由进入资本市场n借入和借出资本的信息可获得n存在大量的交易者，

5、且每一个交易者对市场价格均无显著影响o一个有效率的资本市场对净现值原理的意义：n (1)给投资者根据其偏好对消费模式进行跨期调整提供了可能。这样，经理层只需依据正的净现值进行决策，无需关注不同投资者的消费模式的差异（可以通过在资本市场借入借出进行调整）； n(2)给投资者、公司甚至政府提供了一个进行投资决策的比较标准：任何一项投资至少应获得与资本市场投资相同的收益，否则直接投资资本市场获取机会收益就可。投资决策基本原理漳单夜铁闽鬃锑父蛛套颅雪薄饰库徐胯置仔晶叛蠢跺阳木刃亨阻扭最欠齐职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93投资学决策基本原理o决策依据：接受净现值大于0的投资行为o确定条件下的

6、投资决策n现金流估算o估算方法o增量现金流o沉没成本与机会成本n贴现率估算n期限问题（求极限）n通货膨胀问题n互斥项目投资决策o不确定条件下的投资决策巢跟恬菏淋柄靶湛堕支尘配委漾畔陆志果捏愤舶草丧希赤祟幌剃氏吩敖赠职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o估算方法估算方法n从投资角度看，公司价值取决于其创造现金流的能力n现金流估算的不同视角o现金流量表o金融角度的现金流n注意：o净利润Net Income 自由现金流Free Cash Flow(FCF)o计算经营现金流时未考虑应收帐款是因为应收帐款在净营运资金的变动额中已经考虑了o在中国，现金流量表的编制很少有正确的，“其他与经营活动有关

7、的现金流”一项往往很大确定条件下的投资决策现金流估算跺奏狐屑羌傍刽充宽荫陷碧忍饥塑淑涵闽钵维移过瞄盆劳洞楼敌桃畴熟躯职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93现金流量表现金流量表经营活动现金流经营活动现金流净利润折旧递延税款流动资产和流动负债变动额应收帐款存货应付帐款应付费用应付票据其他经营活动现金流合计投资活动现金流投资活动现金流长期资产购置现金支出长期资产处置现金流入投资活动现金流合计融资活动现金流融资活动现金流到期偿付债务（含到期票据）新增长期负债股利支出股票回购新股发行融资活动现金流合计现金流净变动额（对应资产负债表）现金流净变动额（对应资产负债表）金融视角的现金流金融视角的现金流公

8、司现金流公司现金流经营活动现金流经营活动现金流税息前利润折旧当期支付税款资本支出资本支出长期资产购置现金支出长期资产处置现金流入净营运资金变动额净营运资金变动额 本年净营运资金上年净营运资金合计合计公司投资者的现金流公司投资者的现金流债权人债权人利息到期偿付债务长期债务融资权益方权益方红利股票（权）回购新股发行合计合计Calculate from EBIT,not after-taxation profit, so current taxes should be reduced确定条件下的投资决策现金流估算晒诗腊示卞芭昆纂赵堑率淮作敢蛀娄谢降成靖序朵辩崔殴椰改拇痔瓷汁建职能战略-财务战略93职

9、能战略-财务战略93o现金流估算增量现金流（现金流估算增量现金流（incremental basis）nIncremental Cash Flows(增量现金流）增量现金流）: in calculating the NPV of a project, only cash flows that are incremental to the project should be used. These cash flows are the changes in the firms cash flows that occur as a direct consequences of accepting

10、the project.nSunk Costs（沉没成本）（沉没成本）: a cost that has already occurred. Because sunk cost are in the past,they can not be changed by the decision to accept or reject the project. Just as we “let bygones be bygones”, we should ignore such costs, that is, sunk costs are not incremental cash outflows.nO

11、pportunity Costs（机会成本）（机会成本）: If the assets is used in a new project, potential revenues from alternative uses are lost. These lost revenues can meaningfully be viewed as cost. They are called opportunity costs because, by taking the project, the firm forgoes other opportunities for using the assets

12、.nSide Effects（关联效应）（关联效应）: another difficulty in determining incremental cash flows comes from the side effects of the proposed project on other parts of the firm. The most important side effect is erosion. Erosion is the cash flow transferred to a new project from customers and sales of other prod

13、ucts of the firm.确定条件下的投资决策现金流估算株歧饭毕醛摄沧民左籍百汕屋轴绒镐控洲赎陨榴册床崔斯色苇访蛋籽涣愈职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o现金流估算增量现金流：总结现金流估算增量现金流：总结nCapital budgeting must be placed on an incremental basis. This means that sunk costs must be ignored, while both opportunity costs and side effects must be considered;nIn the Baldwin Com

14、pany case, we computed NPV using the following two steps:oA) calculate the net cash flow from all sources for each periodoB) calculate the NPV using the cash flows calculated above.确定条件下的投资决策现金流估算喻酵阮反绑税批恢啪桌癌崭口男厦氮知写役瘪踩初沥胁尤包皆针专楚监擂职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o贴现率估算资本成本贴现率估算资本成本The Weighted Average Cost of Ca

15、pital（加权平均资金成本）（加权平均资金成本）Debts/Total CapitalCost of EquityCost of DebtsTax rate由于公司在税后才向权益投资者支付股利，所以Re是税后报酬率债务利息是税前支付，有减税作用，故Rd前必须乘以（1-T）以调整成税后债务成本资本成本在投资决策中的作用：（）在NPV运用中作为折现率（假定项目风险与公司风险一致）（）在IRR运用中作为基准利率确定条件下的投资决策贴现率估算茬泊郸初堑锋俐买蛤缴倔啮逞剥饶呵哆写唁悍限续练农送巨舞员拱蹿报坏职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o贴现率估算资本成本贴现率估算资本成本The Cos

16、t of Equity Capital（权益成本）（权益成本）Risk-free return: long-term bonds interest rateMarket return, usually represented by market index return, such as the return of S&P500RiRS&P500确定条件下的投资决策贴现率估算葫黔涕托妨镭蛔斗以奏蠢疑檄很槛贿浓联饵珠穆振嘱耘俭魄钝佐嘲街莫泛职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93nNominal interest rate（名义利率）nReal interest rate（实际利率）nRea

17、l interest rate=(1+Nominal interest rate)/(1+Inflation rate)-1nReal interest rate Nominal interest rate-Inflation ratenNominal cash flow（名义现金流）nReal cash flow（实际现金流）nReal cash flows must be discounted at the real ratenNominal cash flows must be discounted at the nominal rateDiscount: Nominal or Real

18、?确定条件下的投资决策通货膨胀处理唾匪胆迢寒悔驻新峡擅景腿盯搁钮牌兹讹衙膘泰檀嚎嚣讳羹饱恢验滑寅镜职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o互斥项目新购买决策不对等期限处理互斥项目新购买决策不对等期限处理nNew Purchase Decision（新购买决策）（新购买决策）: suppose a firm must choose between two machine of unequal lives, both machines can do the same job, but they have different operating costs and will last for

19、different time periods. A simple application of the NPV rule suggests that we should take the machine whose costs have the lower present value. This could lead to the wrong decision, though, because the lower-cost machine may need to be replaced before the other one. How should we do?nIf we are choo

20、sing between two mutually exclusive projects that have different lives, the projects must be evaluated on an equal-life basis.确定条件下的投资决策互斥项目若仍狱娜伙使略娥富妙延靳顿拽橱砧拖悄谈步戈痰浚唇壬灾略咖胚炕兹铰职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o互斥项目新购买决策不对等期限处理互斥项目新购买决策不对等期限处理Example 1(new-purchase decision): machine A costs $ 500, lasts three year

21、s, maintenance expenses $ 120 per year; machine B costs $ 600, lasts four years, maintenance expenses $ 100 per year; discount rate 10%. All costs in real term, revenue per year are assumed to be the same, regardless of machine. Which machine should be selected?Under the same revenue, machine A has

22、lower cost, choose machine A?NO! why?Because machine B has a longer life so perhaps its cost per year is actually lower!确定条件下的投资决策互斥项目遇披臻迭覆圈协片冕罗澳徊匆绚谊艰谅酵卯攫圾胶跃骨春辖纵叫嚷讶摘词职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o互斥项目新购买决策不对称期限处理：期限匹配法互斥项目新购买决策不对称期限处理：期限匹配法Method 1: Matching Cyclessuppose run the example for 12 years, mach

23、ine A has 4 complete cycles, and machine B has 3. So comparison appropriate.First replacement occurs at date 3, another 798.42 cost occurs in PV term.First replacement occurs at date 4, First replacement occurs at date 4, another 916.99 cost occurs in PV term.another 916.99 cost occurs in PV term.Pr

24、oblem: one the number of cycle is high, the amount of calculation is also high.Prefer B!Prefer B!确定条件下的投资决策互斥项目因忍溪攘节京保弘皇兆住舞邦耶圾猿絮捆剃取仕酌脊秘偿迪对榴瘩曼刮逼职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93Method 2: Equivalent Annual Cost(EAC)Equate the single payment of 798,42 to machine A at date 0 with a three-year annuity; Equate 916.9

25、9 to machine B with a four-year annuity. Choose the less EAC machine.An annuity of $1 a year for three years, discounted at 10%.Since EACB EACA, Prefer B!o互斥项目新购买决策不对称期限处理：年平均成本法互斥项目新购买决策不对称期限处理：年平均成本法确定条件下的投资决策互斥项目税画瘸承养栽蹦羚焦卜先惫掠竹杰伪孔睡桌拄周实弱彦棱升领然耽狮狗冻职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o互斥项目设备更新决策不对称期限处理互斥项目设备更新决策不对称

26、期限处理nReplacement Decision（设备更新决策）（设备更新决策）: when to replace an existing machine with a new one?nFirst, calculate the EAC for the new equipment; second, calculate the yearly cost for the old equipment, this cost likely rises over time because the machines maintenance expenses should increase with age.

27、 Replacement should occur right before the cost of the old equipment exceeds the EAC on the new equipment.确定条件下的投资决策互斥项目剁邓嘶牺话化雾烧潭淋瓣拓着丙梭慑峦彬蚊碑攒撕攀啪揩劲显放罢没鬼记职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93Example 2 (replacement decision): BIKE is contemplating whether to replace an existing machine or to spend money overhauling i

28、t. BIKE currently pays no taxes. The replacement machine costs $9000 now and requires maintenance of $1000 at the end of every year for eight years. At the end of eight years it would have a salvage value of $2000 and would be sold. The existing machine requires increasing amounts of maintenance eac

29、h year, and its salvage value falls each year, as shown below:o互斥项目设备更新决策不对称期限处理互斥项目设备更新决策不对称期限处理Year MaintenanceSalvagePresent$04000110002500220001500330001000440000Suppose the maintenance fee is paid at the end of of the year, the machine will last for four more years before it falls apart. If BIK

30、E faces an opportunity cost of capital of 15%,when should it replace the machine?确定条件下的投资决策互斥项目恼嘶伍辛方堂赐灿愉普能征贿页予荧己吸头袍迹研杨挥鸣酪圭泽申蔼再辽职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93Step 1: calculate the EAC of the new machineStep 2: calculate the cost of maintain the old machineStep 3: make a comparison: Replace immediately!Year 1

31、Year 2Year 3Year 4.Expense from replacing immediately2860286028602860.Expense from replacing one year later3100286028602860.Expense from replacing two year later3100337528602860.o互斥项目设备更新决策不对称期限处理互斥项目设备更新决策不对称期限处理确定条件下的投资决策互斥项目蕾憋泰宪氟和腥乘靠铁久抑倔近股蹄瞧撤纤衅堕郊娜泊苏妥酉长臀吗晤挎职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93不确定条件的投资决策o公司策略行为对净

32、现值的影响公司策略行为对净现值的影响nPositive NPV is accepted, but what are the sources of positive NPV?Positive NPVLower investment(outflows)Higher inflowsLower discount rate (risks)A significant part of corporate strategy analysis is seeking investment opportunities that can produce positive NPV.乖忧金树木凶爸铲协横态些讥慕作衫举丙胚

33、荫禹沧诵鞍酪壁配爆挽郴侥沼职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o公司策略行为对净现值的影响公司策略行为对净现值的影响Strategic action to create positive NPVIntroduce new productDevelop core technologyCreate barrier to entryIntroduce variation on existing productsCreate product differentiationUtilize organizational innovationExploit new technology不确定条件的投

34、资决策释溉弄拉呵絮捕理崩犹眨限器瑰秦男佑缘毁删傣江援残亢埂锰容苏亿亦七职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o公司策略行为与股票价格公司策略行为与股票价格Strategic actionsPositive NPVStock price rising中国股市的中国股市的“概念满天飞概念满天飞”现象分析现象分析不确定条件的投资决策蛹把汲攀讨劲溯腿彦浇狙叭院沛廷辽洁观嫡烦挽击簇证惺萎礁寄毁趣孰题职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o增量现金流不确定的处理方法增量现金流不确定的处理方法Strategic action to positive NPV is uncertainDevelop

35、 analytical tools to deal with uncertaintyLimit the application of NPV ruleDecision Trees（决策树）（决策树）Sensitivity Analysis（敏感性分析）（敏感性分析）Scenario Analysis（情景分析）（情景分析）Break-Even Analysis（盈亏平衡分析）（盈亏平衡分析）Options（期权）（期权）Further discussion不确定条件的投资决策调省阔患女圃俯伎嘉约辜椽掘揭织批促喜喳摄滴炔碎恫换瘫仪溜兄稍舞脚职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o增量现金流

36、不确定的处理方法增量现金流不确定的处理方法方法一：决策树方法一：决策树方法一：决策树方法一：决策树Decision TreeDecision TreeDate 0Date 1Date 2 to 5Test and develop-$ 100Initial investment-$ 1500Production$ 900Discount rate 15%75% chance to test successfullytestDo not testsuccessfailureinvestDo not investDo not investinvestNPV=1517NPV=0NPV=-3611Exp

37、ected NPV1= 151775%+25%0=1138, NPV0=-100+1138/(1+15%)=890Decision: Decision: to conduct to conduct the test!the test!不确定条件的投资决策融鳞棘缆掖佃索镭摊灌谅斥耳玖缉漳档迁揭影勇歼亨鄂顶掩霓指喷铝违遍职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93方法二：方法二：方法二：方法二： Sensitivity Analysis and Scenario Analysis Sensitivity Analysis and Scenario AnalysisOnly one variable

38、 varied,others fixedMany variables varied togetherVariablePessimisticExpected or BestOptimisticMarket size(per year)50001000020000Market share20%30%50%Price$ 1.9 million$ 2 million$ 2.2 millionVariable cost(per year)$ 1.2 million$ 1 million$ 0.8 millionFixed cost(per year)$ 1891 million$ 1791 millio

39、n$ 1741 millionInvestment $ 1900 million $ 1500 million$ 1000 millionPessimisticExpected or BestOptimisticMarket size(per year)-$ 1802$ 1517$ 8154Market share-69615175942Price85315172844Variable cost(per year)18915172844Fixed cost(per year)129515171628Investment 120815171903Investment on date o,infl

40、ows from date1 to date5,depreciation 300 per year; Discount rate 15%, tax rate 34%Given numbersNPV Using SA10000*30%*(2-1)-1791-300*(1-34%)+300=900Only Market size changed from 1000 to 20000, other variables fixedo增量现金流不确定的处理方法增量现金流不确定的处理方法不确定条件的投资决策婚忍嚼罕花惜比镣贤坊嚎椅嚎谱灿李荚肯测骑限剿音斧件呕诣柠原发厢存职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务

41、战略9310%20%10%20%30%40%50%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%Standard IRR 9%Programs IRR 12.78%Products priceFixed assets investment不确定因素变化率ABCMaterials priceo增量现金流不确定的处理方法敏感性分析的另一种表达增量现金流不确定的处理方法敏感性分析的另一种表达不确定条件的投资决策庶拖柄廓月馁着赡词花篆终比趋脑博刨萧点猜扑拘瑚淄念永坤我安纶鞠嚷职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93方法三：盈亏平衡分析方法三：盈亏平衡分析方法三：盈亏平衡分析方法三：盈亏平衡分析 Brea

42、k-Even Analysis Break-Even AnalysisIn net profit quantityIn NPV quantityP-price, V-variable costs per unit, C-fixed costs, D-depreciation, Tc-tax rate, Q*-break-even sales unitsEquivalent Annual Costs折旧亦是固定成本之一部分;在中国，工资有时亦为固定成本之一。o增量现金流不确定的处理方法增量现金流不确定的处理方法不确定条件的投资决策记材孺骨诀挠嗡猾哩类输讼压欲顾专癣葛屹娱峭治诺握用痘谗素驼怕夜拂职

43、能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93Year 0Initial investmentSales unitsrevenuesVariable costsFixed costsDepre-ciationTaxes(34%)Net profitsOperating CFNPV15000001791-300711-1380-1080-5120150010002000-10001791-300371-720-420-2980150030006000-30001791-300309600900151715001000020000-100001791-30026895220552017004Q*net

44、 profit Q*NPV用净利润口径计算的盈亏平衡点销量假设D=EAC, 即初始投资通过折旧得到弥补，这一计算忽视了初始投资的机会成本(discount rate)447.5-300=147.5o增量现金流不确定的处理方法盈亏平衡分析举例增量现金流不确定的处理方法盈亏平衡分析举例不确定条件的投资决策杖绥核吼皋巢尾舟目豺烩镑稼醇惭永互努泞忌纯橙研言趋以肪煞篱淋晋厢职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93方法四：期权法方法四：期权法方法四：期权法方法四：期权法 Options-Abandon or Expand Options-Abandon or ExpandM = NPV + OptM

45、= NPV + OptThe market value of the projectThe value of the project without options to expand or contractThe value of managerial optionsNotes: Conventional NPV analysis discounts a projects cash flows estimated for a certain project life. The decision is whether to accept the project or reject it. In

46、 practice, managers can expand or contract the scope of a project at various moments over its life. In theory, all such managerial options should be included in the projects value.The right of choice!o增量现金流不确定的处理方法增量现金流不确定的处理方法不确定条件的投资决策午逾绅诚败晰茸稠险谁事谍澜惕沁朝牌施拳早崖耪凄深粟谊恨捌弱焕悼粤职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93Conventio

47、nalDate 0Date 1unitsCash Flow-$ 105010$ 100 in perpetuityOptions a year afterAbandon( Failure)-$ 10500$ 500 equipment salvageExpand( Success )-$ 105020$ 200 in perpetuityDiscount rate 10%, the probability of failure and success is the same (50%), should we launch the new product?方法一：方法一：方法二：方法二：C/rT

48、he expected cash flow from abandonmentThe expected cash flow from optionso增量现金流不确定的处理方法期权法举例增量现金流不确定的处理方法期权法举例不确定条件的投资决策刨蓝札份戍冀胸伶梭滁芯贼亢娩抑刃虏苞浩遭赖淳姐疲掠使葫哦擞衍奈烯职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93融资决策基本逻辑Current AssetsFixed AssetsTangibleIntangibleCurrent LiabilitiesLong-term DebtsShareholders EquityNPV:investment decisi

49、onFinancing DecisionEMH and its implications for corporate financeCapital structure DecisionLong-term financing and limits to the use of debtFinancing sourcesValue of firm: from the perspective of assets value or assets return.Value of firm: from the perspective of the market value of debts and equi

50、ties狞仪嗣玉射妆寸伪畴慧肉咕晦亿器拽坚路醒鸟啦揽警瞻镰牡暗雾陀矗幕诲职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93oEquity-stock（股权股票）oBonds（债券）oPreferred stock（优先股）oConvertible preferred stock（可转换优先股）oConvertible bonds（可转换债）o Warrants（认股权证） 融资决策长期工具选择网胰谎菊皇盖忽织提妒篱勃蛰幕劳江遭壬谎银嚣哉傲蓬躯碱答贱溢棉哀俄职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o有效市场假设有效市场假设nDefinition: An efficient market is on

51、e in which stock prices fully reflect available information.nGeneral implications for investors and for firms: oBecause information is reflected in prices immediately, investors should only expect to obtain a normal rate of return. Awareness of information when it is released does an invest no good.

52、 The price adjusts before the investor has time to trade on it; oFirms should expect to receive the fair value for securities that they sell. Fair means that the price they receive for the securities they issue is the present value. Thus, valuable financing opportunities that arise from fooling inve

53、stors are unavailable in efficient capital markets.nPresuppositions: (1)efficient disclosure of information; (2)efficiently receive; (3)efficient judgments; (4)efficient feedback.融资决策的理论假设EMH厂闹加页蟹侍已池翅淌堆哎枯朴钡糟溪满腰膜传绑佛沉术瓶惧首彼愤志敦职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93Information set of past prices Information set of publi

54、cly available All information relevant to a stocko有效市场假设有效市场假设nThree types of efficient capital marketsThe weak-form of efficiency: todays price reflects only information on past prices. Pt = Pt-1 + Expected return +Random errort不完全信息、无传输渗漏、不完全解读（能且只能解读历史价格信息）、无时滞反馈The semi-strong form of efficiency

55、: todays price reflects all publicly available information.不完全信息、无传输渗漏、完全解读、无时滞反馈The strong-form of efficiency: todays price reflects all information, both public and private.完全信息、无传输渗漏、完全解读、无时滞反馈implies , implies 融资决策的理论假设EMH贱绥爆维哆饯漠矣贫噎守溅留阅橡畴丈聘读辉凳躲扣馋寝村楼藻熔及改娇职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o资本结构资本结构Bonds60%Sto

56、cks40%Bonds40%Stocks60%Value of firmValue of firmValue of firmValue of firmV V B + S B + S How to maximizing the value of the entire firm? How to maximizing the value of the entire firm? what is the ratio of debt to equity that maximizes the shareholders what is the ratio of debt to equity that maxi

57、mizes the shareholders interest?interest?融资决策资本结构怯敞勤敬站椎鳞暑玄檄土锦念稍杯艰搭雕凝箭祸檄测积治蕉却嵌烦情组鹅职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93MM Propositions Without Taxes Presuppositions:Without taxes 公司在无税收环境下运营Perfect market 存在高度完善的资本市场，股票和债券在完全资本市场上的交易意味着：）没有交易成本；）投资者进入和退出市场不受限制；）所有投资者可以平等、免费获取市场信息；）投资者个人和组织可同公司一样以同等利率借款。Measurable o

58、perating risks 企业的经营风险是可以衡量的，可以用EBIT的标准差来衡量，有相同经营风险的企业即处于同类风险等级；Risk-free debts 企业和个人的负债没有风险，所以负债利率为无风险利率，此外，不论个人和企业举债数额为多少，这个条件不变；Same expectation of EBIT 现在和将来的投资者对企业未来EBIT的估计完全相同，即投资者对公司未来收益和这些收益风险的预期是相等的；Zero growth 企业各期的现金流是固定的，形成等额年金流，企业各期的税息前利润不变，即企业为0增长。融资决策资本结构椎第渺硷穗杨拼鸯泡钦溪鄂辊士烙拔妄殿凄卯费澎捐塔鹃箍纲磅捕举

59、谍蜡职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93MM Propositions Without Taxes Proposition I ( no taxes ): The value of the levered firm is the same as the value of the un-levered firm无论公司有无负债，其价值等于公司所有资产的预期收益额除以适于该公司风险等级的报酬率。即，当不考虑公司税时，企业的价值是由它的实际资产决定的，而不取决于这些资产的取得形式，即企业的价值与资本结构无关。Investment=Depreciation,because of Zero gr

60、owth If levered firms are priced too high, rational investors will simply borrow on their personal accounts to buy shares in un-levered firms. This substitution is oftentimes called homemade leverage. As long as individuals borrows (and lend) on the same terms as the firms, they can duplicate the ef

61、fects of corporate leverage on their own.The same EBIT regardless of the L/S ratio(Assumption)融资决策资本结构下持并柜端炕屏盼高州会寒址土剪俺撑雹双绽排堕瑰藉挑客伴要躇穷乎藕职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93n负债约束负债约束VL = VU + TDMaximize firm value by issue maximum debt?No!How to maximize firm value?Maximize firm value by issue maximum debt?making us

62、e of those benefits from debt financing, such as tax shield benefit;considering those costs from debt financing, such as bankruptcy cost and and agency costs.融资决策资本结构帘繁佳蝎蛙傣南苑裕扇囊房砒枣墨曹氧讥暖啦澈湍戍琴甭愿涵析醉膳千溶职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93Tax Shield Effects（节税效应）：VL = VU + TD, MM theory argued that the firms value ris

63、es with leverage in the presence of corporate taxes. 由于债务的利息是在税前支付的，企业由此减少了所得税的支付，由此获得节税利益。节税利益的存在，使得负债企业的价值及其股东权益高于无负债企业；Motivation Effects（经营激励效应）：当公司增加债务时，公司的破产可能性增加，对债权人还本付息的现金流压力会使经理人手中的“自由现金”得到控制，现金流出的压力会促使经理人提高经营效率，以免因公司破产而导致个人的名誉、地位和收益损失。Leverage Effects（杠杆效应）：在企业资本结构一定的条件下，从EBIT中支付的债务利息和优先股

64、股利是固定的。当EBIT增长时，每一元利润负担的固定资本成本就会减少，从而使普通股的EPS以更快的速度增长，当EBIT减少时，每一元利润负担的固定资本成本就会增加，从而使普通股的EPS以更快的速度下降。这种由于负债引起的普通股每股收益的波动幅度大于EBIT波动幅度的现象被称为财务杠杆。EBITEPSLine with taxLine without tax0The Benefits from Debt Financing（债务增加的收益）（债务增加的收益）融资决策负债约束莆弛恶髓人蕉响寿骄摊疙裤登册蘑牵湿斜尹帘石呻嫌床伐被舅凌茨描稀冠职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93Bankrupt

65、cy costs（破产成本）Direct costs: Lawyer fees（律师费）, administrative and accounting fees（行政与会计费用）, expert witness fees when a trial takes place（作证费用）.Indirect costs: 股东及经理人“合谋”短期利益（transfer assets or profit, cancel required maintenance expenses, and so on), 顾客、供货商和资金提供者的避险行为选险（sales are frequently lost beca

66、use of both fear of impaired services and loss of trust, and so on).Agency costs（代理成本, shareholders versus bond-holders）: there are three kinds of selfish strategies that shareholders use to hurt the bondholders and help themselves. These strategies are costly because they will lower the market valu

67、e of the whole firm.Incentive to take risks: invest high risk project, issue more bonds, and so onIncentive toward under-investment: positive NPV benefits bondholders at the cost of shareholders money.Milking the property: pay out extra dividends or other distributions in times of financial distress

68、, leaving less in the firm for the bondholders.The Costs from Debt Financing（债务带来的成本）（债务带来的成本）融资决策负债约束医柒滋湍右氓纷再惑猛志实圣参绵哭寓障秩枫歼匡帜且麦瞒砰烧闪柄栏拥职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93The Optimal Amount of Debt and the Value of the FirmV=VU+TD-FDC=VU+TD-FCC-ACPV of bankruptcy costPV of agency costValue of Firm(V)Debt (D)Value

69、of firm with no debt(VU)Value of firm under MM with tax and debt(VL)Actual value of firm(V)Present value of tax shield on debt(TD)Present value of financial distress costs(FDC)D*-Optimal amount of debtV*-maximum firm value融资决策负债约束殿蛋是审碎督灶杭略摆柑诞棵衍慷互媳水骨姚棺歌攘身虫抿购搬塔匣掐锰职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o定义定义Payment of

70、cash for raw materialsCash received from sold goodsTime:1 year ( less )Cash inflowsCash outflowsPurchase of machineTime:yearsCash inflowsCash outflowsShort-term financial decision1324Long-term financial decisionShort-term finance is an analysis of decision that affect current assets and current liab

71、ilities and will frequently have an impact on the firm within a year(net working capital decision).The most important difference between short-term and long-term finance is the timing of cash flows. Short-term financial decisions involve cash flows and outflows within a year or less.营运资金决策矛溺氮宝他拒姑扭停呸

72、蜕行二练韶酶宠晃恤数松泛悦驴络庞嘛胎肌漂熟俩职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o现金决策定义现金决策定义Cash = Long-term debt + Equity Net working capital (excluding cash) Fixed assetsNet working capital+Fixed assets=Long-term debt+EquityNet working capital=Cash+Other current assets-Current liabilitiesCash+Other current assets-Current liabilitie

73、s=Long-term debt+Equity-Fixed assetsCash= Long-term debt+Equity-Fixed assets-(Other current assets-Current liabilities)Indicating increasing long-term debt and equity and decreasing fixed assets and net working capital (excluding cash) will increase cash to the firm.营运资金决策矛磐肠葛菊挚乖褥努萧柄瞎倍讽佳襟砖详腰骨陪扶遗需篱扔痹

74、惨交硫悠棚职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o现金决策来源和用途现金决策来源和用途Sources of Cash:Cash flow from operations:Net incomeDepreciationTotal cash flow from operationsDecrease in net working capital:Increase in accounts payableIncrease in notes payableIncrease in accrued expensesIncrease in taxes payableTotal sources of cash

75、Uses of Cash:Increase in fixed assetsIncrease in prepaymentsDividendsIncrease in net working capital:Investment in inventoryIncrease in accounts receivableIncrease in marketable securitiesTotal uses of cashChange in cash balance营运资金决策龚籍晤终用纠象哭狼涝噪宜惫猎坡怒独穗策白膝赊蜂退蚤绿坐丈蛤次可坝职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o现金循环现金循环Raw

76、 material purchasedOrder placedStock arrivesFirm receives invoiceCash paid for materialsFinished goods soldCash receivedTimeInventory periodAccounts payable periodAccounts receivable periodOperating cycleCash cycleThe operating cycle is the time period from the arrival of stock until the receipt of

77、cash. The cash cycle begins when cash is paid for materials and ends when cash is collected from receivables.The need for short-term financial decision making is suggested by the gap between the cash inflows and cash outflows. This is related to the lengths of the operating cycle and the accounts pa

78、yable period. This gap can be filled either by borrowing or by holding a liquidity reserve for marketable securities. The gap can be shortened by changing the inventory, receivable, and payable periods.营运资金决策训妒肛晴里悟冻壕宁申鸳党栏瞥蒲访豹悬平壕枫伯恭海褥峙戏申阐柄芭肤职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o流动资产决策流动资产决策The Size of the Firms Inv

79、estment in Current Assets(Current Assets/Sales)The Financing for Current Assets(short-term debt/long-term financing)Flexible PolicyKeeping large balances of cash and marketable securitiesMaking large investments in inventoryGranting liberal credit terms, which results in a high level of accounts rec

80、eivableRestrictive PolicyKeeping low cash balances and no investment in marketable securitiesMaking small investments in inventoryAllowing no credit sales and no accounts receivable.An Ideal ModelShort-term assets can always be financed with short-term debt, and long-term assets can be financed with

81、 long-term debt and equity. Net working capital is always zero.An Secular ModelCurrent assets cannot be expected to drop to zero in the real world, because a long-term rising level of sales will result in some permanent investment in current assets. A growing firm can be thought of as having both a

82、permanent requirement for current assets and one for long-term assets.matching营运资金决策膳薛考蔚屠浅啊至籽晴旗请盲载航混谋娘沟煽辫适缮围邹滞鲜斤悉橇刊丈职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o流动资产决策流动资产决策Carrying costs increase with the level of investment in current assets. They include both opportunity costs and the costs of maintaining the assets e

83、conomic value. Shortage costs decrease with increases in the level of investment in current assets. They include trading costs and the costs of running out of the current asset. For example, being short of cash.CA*CA*CA*Total cost of holding current assetsCarrying costsShortage costsAmount of curren

84、t assets(CA)Dollars Minimum pointFlexible policyRestrictive policy营运资金决策彪孙铆磋雍屉懂钉猴亲筋皑堰背山蒸械礼硒乞谴且陀宿佑吃泼炒腺帮出蒂职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o流动资产决策与融资流动资产决策与融资Fixed assetsTimeDollarCurrent assets = Short-term debtLong-term debt plus common stockDollarTimeTotal asset requirementSeasonal variationSecular growth in

85、fixed assets and permanent current assetsIdeal Model(Zero Net Working Capital)Secular Model(Total Assets Requirement )There is no definitive answer to the most appropriate amount of short-term borrowing. Several considerations must be included in proper analysis: Cash Reserves(现金储备现金储备): investment

86、in cash and marketable securities are zero NPV Maturity Hedging(期限匹配期限匹配): avoiding maturity mismatching Term Structure(利率期限结构利率期限结构): short-term interest rateslong-term interest rates营运资金决策筋佐徒焕哄赚何郊啄吉概际创帛真相滁扶奇宰烘伙葵纸恒厌牵均糜幸宫烙职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93n营运资金融资工具营运资金融资工具nCommercial Credit: Account payable, No

87、te payable, Accrued expensesnUnsecured LoansnNon-committed line of credit: (1)an informal arrangement that allows firms to borrow up to a previously specified limit without going through the normal paperwork; (2)rate=prime lending rate+an additional percentage; (3)usually requiring compensating bala

88、nces ( deposits the firm keeps with the bank in low-interest or non-interest-bearing accounts).nCommitted line of credit: (1) formal legal arrangements and usually involve a commitment fee paid by the firm to the bank, usually the fee is approximately 0.25% of the total committed funds per year. (2)

89、 London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for large firms; (3) compensating balances required for SME.nSecured LoansnAccounts receivable financingnInventory loan营运资金决策站埠簧透缅椅次舶鸿远营拨雀愧耘浆芥驭葬绊重蛤鄂孝棉煌副娠埂圣颁建职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o股利决策的重要性股利决策的重要性(1) It determines what funds flow (1) It determines what funds fl

90、ow to investors and what funds to investors and what funds are retained by the firm for are retained by the firm for reinvestment, which put an reinvestment, which put an effect on corporate value;effect on corporate value;(2) It provides information to the (2) It provides information to the stockho

91、lder concerning the stockholder concerning the firms performance, which put firms performance, which put an effect on stock price.an effect on stock price.股利决策垮的恰褐桐航哟鱼榔藕大园揣絮包戏涵盟嗡镣裤铜岳证贷溶乏中悬貉访崎职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o相关概念相关概念nDividend Per Share (DPS，每股股利）: total dividends paid to common shareholdersnDi

92、vidend Payment Ratio（股利支付率）: dividends paid divided by net profit ( DPS/EPS)nDividend Yield（股票收益率）: DPS/PricenThe Process of Dividend Paying（股利发放程序）oDeclaration Date（分红预案公布日、分红方案批准即宣告日）oDate of Record（股权登记日）oEx-Dividend Date（除息/除权日）oDate of Payment（送股交易日、股利发放日）nCash Dividend(派现)、Stock Dividend(送股)、

93、Private Placement (配股)、资本公积转增股本nStock Split（股票分拆）、Stock Repurchase（股票回购）股利决策虎辫躺贮枝忧甸归搓膝桨泊洱申恩唬碟氧怀尖拜虱墩茎绦狼茄镰逐擎邪肖职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o股利决策理论流派股利决策理论流派nMM Theory（MM的股利政策无效理论）: in a perfect capital market, dividend policy cannot put an effect on the corporate value, the latter only depends on the corpora

94、tes profitability (EBIT).n Information Content Effect（股利政策的信息效应理论）: for example, high dividend payment ratio usually transfers a message to the market that the firm will be operated well in the future ( not absolutely, maybe it has no positive project to invest)nClientele Effect（股东构成理论）: under the g

95、iven tax policy(different dividend tax rate and capital gain tax rate), different shareholders prefer to different dividend policy股利决策悟撼樟闽篓扁螟必茸侧聂淋你丈侵羽衍窘及茨跋招缅桑小吹喘捏鳞实捆减职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o决策因素决策因素nInvestment Choices（投资机会）nEarnings Stability（收入的稳定性）nThe Ability of Financing（公司融资能力的大小）nThe Limits fro

96、m Regulations and Contracts（法律法规及合同的限制）nInformation Effects（信息效应）nShareholders Preferences（股东偏好）股利决策凡茵棋凰箩剩狰峨谗蓉拎弯次俞悯蛀伐蓟译漏踢稳孪障买滴龄裂镰通掩种职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93o决策因素决策因素阶段阶段1(开发开发)阶段阶段2(扩张扩张)阶段阶段3(成熟增长成熟增长)阶段阶段4(衰退衰退)受规模和其他基础设施的限制相对于公司价值较高相对于公司价值中等由于投资项目萎缩，资金需求较低进行投资，流量为负相对于公司价值较低占公司价值的比例上升相对于公司价值较高没有股利发行新股没有或低于股利增加股利特殊股利，股票回购资金资金需求需求产生的现产生的现金流量金流量股利股利政策政策时间年份收益公司发展周期与股利政策公司发展周期与股利政策股利决策题氧润院掠雨钥观婆港挝盘请焰材躬滩碎剩易阵濒堰乾荧盘苛蟹杜碱辈抚职能战略-财务战略93职能战略-财务战略93