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1、Helen Zhu(%)(%)3.087.02.077.01.00.072.0-1.0November 1, 2012China A-share StrategyChina A-share Mutual Fund Trend Monitor 3Q12: Moredefensive in 3Q, may partly reverse in 4QPortfolio Strategy ResearchEquity position dropped in 3Q12In 3Q12, equity holdings at equity-focused fundsfell 3.2 pp to 77.8%,
2、the largest drop since 2Q10.Holdings in the property, financials andmachinery sectors fell (though property is stilloverweight (OW) vs. CSI300 index weightings);holdings in the health care, food and beverage,electronics, IT, and media and culture sectorincreased (all were OW). With relatively defens
3、iveweighting, most equity funds outperformed theCSI300.Equity holdings may edge up in 4Q2012China A-share mutual fund_Equity Position (%)PMI_New order (trend and cycle) changes (3-month leading, RHS)82.0May move slightly positive in 4QThe leading indicators (changes of PMI neworders trend and cycle)
4、 suggest there may beroom for small increases in equity holdings in 4Q.Sector-wise, the food and beverage, health careand electronics sectors could see reduced mutualfund weighting in 4Q due to: 1) their high currentweighting vs. history; 2) strong results partlyreflected in share prices; 3) investo
5、rs may shifttwd higher beta as macro stabilizes; 4) higherpressure from shares unlocking. We believe thecement sector (our OW sector) may see increasedholdings due to: 1) historically low holdings; 2) theinfrastructure investment recovery (inventoriesare low, and oversupply is light in some regions)
6、.Five most popular stocks in 3Q12Kweichow Moutai, China National Chemical,Wuliangye Yibin, Tasly Pharma, and ShandongChenjie Liu+86(10)6627-3324 Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited+852-2978-0048 Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.Timothy Moe, CFA+852-2978-1328 Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.Jason Sun+86(
7、10)6627-3187 Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company LimitedBen Bei+852-2978-1220 Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.67.0-2.0Gold Mining registered the largest increases in thenumber of equity-focused mutual funds holding62.0Jul-07Jan-08Jul-08Jan-09Jul-09Jan-10Jul-10Jan-11Jul-11Jan-12Jul-12-3.0Jan-13their stock
8、in 3Q12, which was consistent withSource: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS GlobalECS Research.sector outperformance including food & beverage,health care, and non-ferrous metals.Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, in
9、vestors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Append
10、ix, or go to Analysts employed by non-USaffiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research2November 1, 2012ChinaThis is the A-share Mutual Fund Trend Monitor for 3Q2012. We
11、 launched the China A-share Mutual Fund Trend Monitor on June 16, 2011. It is published quarterlyand attempts to follow the changes in Chinas domestic mutual funds, the most important institutional investors in the China A-share market based on theirmandatory quarterly disclosures. A brief introduct
12、ion to this product series can be found in the first issue of this product (China A-share Mutual Fund TrendMonitor: Lower equity position, net fund outflow, June 16, 2011).Mutual funds turned more defensive in 3Q12; may move slightly positive in 4Q12What happened in 3Q12?Equity holdings fell signifi
13、cantly. In 3Q12, equities made up 77.8% of the holdings of active equity funds (namely, equityfunds excluding indexed and ETF funds), down 3.2 pp from 2Q12s 81.0%the largest drop since 2Q10. Since 2003, equityholdings of actively managed funds have ranged between 53.9% and 95.7%, and averaged 77.9%.
14、Holdings fell in the property, financials and machinery sectors, but increased in the health care, food and beverage,electronics, IT, and media and cultural services sectors (see Exhibit 17). In 3Q, most mutual funds decreased their holdingsin sectors with high macro sensitivity like property, finan
15、cials, and machinery. This was the first time property holdings werelowered since 3Q11, and was a relatively large decline (-1.7 pp to 8.0%, though this is still well above the market averageproperty sector weighting of 4.2% and still near historical peak OW levels). We believe this reflects investo
16、r attitudes given: arecovery in property trading volume and slight price increases; worries about further policy tightening (including potentialexpanded property tax pilot, or even stricter purchase limits). GDP growth fell to 7.4% in 3Q12 from 7.6% the previous quarter,and the weak fundamentals cau
17、sed investors to reduce holdings of macro-sensitive sectors. By contrast, the relative lack ofmacroeconomic sensitivity and stable earnings of the food and beverage, electronics, IT, and media and cultural servicessectors attracted mutual funds in 3Q12.Sector holdings vs. CSI 300 Index weightings/hi
18、storical range. Compared with CSI300 index weighting, the equity-focusedmutual funds overweight the health care/food & beverage/electronics/property and IT sectors, and underweight thefinancials/oil & gas/smelting and processing/transportation/machinery sectors (see Exhibit 18). Furthermore, the cur
19、rentweightings of the food & beverage/health care/electronics sectors are at their highest levels vs. the historical range since 2007,while the current weightings of the cement/oil & gas/chemicals/retailing/machinery sectors are close to their lowest levels since2007 (see Exhibit 20).All types of fu
20、nds saw net redemptions. In 3Q12, net redemptions in the mutual fund industry totaled 99.3 bn units, withtotal subscriptions of 930.8 bn units and total redemptions of 1030.1 bn units. Net redemptions were 6.6 bn units for equityfunds, 8.2 bn units for mixed funds, and 3.4 bn units for other funds.
21、Net redemptions for money market and fixed incomefunds amounted to 45.7 bn units and 35.4 bn units, respectively, making up the majority of net redemptions. We believe thiswas largely due to the weak bond market in 3Q12 (see Exhibits 8-10).Despite the difficult market in 3Q12, most equity funds outp
22、erformed the CSI300 index. Returns for equity funds in 3Q12ranged from -12.1% to 6.4%, with a mean of -4.19% and a median of -4.18%, while 3Q12 CSI300 returns were -6.85%. Ofapproximately 390 equity funds, 330 outperformed the CSI300 in 3Q12 (average outperformance was 2.7%), largely due tofunds bec
23、oming increasingly defensive (see Exhibit 3).Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research3November 1, 2012ChinaStocks where mutual funds changed positions: Panels A and B in Exhibit 21 are based on stocks where equity-focusedmutual funds added exposure. Panels C and D in Exhibit
24、 22 are based on stocks where equity-focused mutual funds decreasedexposure. In 3Q12, the five stocks added by the most mutual funds were Kweichow Moutai, China National Chemical,Wuliangye Yibin, Tasly Pharma and Shandong Gold Mining; this is in line with the excellent results shown by the food andb
25、everage, medical and non-ferrous metals sectors. Poly, Gemdale, Vanke, Ping An and Zoomlion were the five stocks with thelargest decrease in the number of equity-focused mutual funds holding the stocks, which reflects the weakness of the propertyand machinery sectors.What could happen in 4Q12?We bel
26、ieve equity holdings could increase, but only to a limited extent. Equity-focused fund equity holdings movebasically in line with the CSI300 index (see Exhibit 1) and both have stabilized somewhat since the beginning of October. Ouranalysis shows that changes in PMI new orders (trend and cycle) lead
27、 equity fund holdings (monthly average) byapproximately 3-4 months. Changes in PMI new orders (trend and cycle) have recovered slightly since July 2012 (see Exhibit 2),and in line with the rule that it leads by 3-4 months, equity holdings have increased slightly since October but to adisproportionat
28、ely low extent vs. the changes of PMI new orders (trend and cycle).Sectors: The food and beverage, health care and electronics sectors may see holdings reduced in 4Q12; thecement sector may see holdings increased. Relevant to the food and beverage, medical and electronics sectors, ourresearch has fo
29、und that:1) holdings in these sectors are at their highest levels since 2007 (see Exhibit 20);2) these sectors have strong results reflected in share prices, and relatively high valuations; and3) against a backdrop of small improvements in macroeconomic fundamentals in 4Q12 and the QE3 round of over
30、seasquantitative easing, the market may start to rotate towards higher beta sectors;4) relatively higher pressure from shares unlocking in 4Q2012 in these sectors.For all these reasons, we believe mutual fund weightings in these sectors may decrease slightly in 4Q12.As for the cement sector:1) holdi
31、ngs are currently at historically low levels; and2) the infrastructure investment recovery could be beneficial to the sector (inventories are low, and oversupply is light in someregions).Please refer to the first issue of this product for a detailed discussion on the limitations of our analysis here
32、 (China A-share MutualFund Trend Monitor: Lower equity position, net fund outflow, June 16, 2011).Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research(%)(%)(%)4November 1, 2012Exhibit 1: Estimates by WIND indicate that equity mutual fund positions have edged up since early OctChina90Chi
33、na A-share mutual fund_Equity Position (%)CSI300 (RHS)230Indexed Apr 2, 2007=1002108519080170150751307011090657060502007-04-022007-11-122008-06-242009-02-062009-09-102010-04-272010-12-092011-7-192012-3-22012-10-15Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS Research.Exhibit 2:
34、Leading indicator (changes of PMI new order (trend and cycle) indicated that equity mutual fund positions (monthlyaverage) may rise gradually in next few months, but range would be limitedChina A-share mutual fund_Equity Position (%)PMI_New order (trend and cycle) changes (3-month leading, RHS)3.087
35、.02.082.01.077.00.072.067.062.0-1.0-2.0-3.0Jul-07Jan-08Jul-08Jan-09Jul-09Jan-10Jul-10Jan-11Jul-11Jan-12Jul-12Jan-13Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS Research.Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research605November 1, 2012Exhibit 3: Median return
36、of equity-focused mutual funds in 3Q2012 was -4.18%, outperforming CSI300s -6.85% in 3QExcess return of equity focused mutual funds (Median) vs. CSI300China50403020100-10-20-30-40(%)MedianCSI300 returnMar-03Mar-04Mar-05Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Resear
37、ch estimates, GS Global ECS Research.Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research-3.0 -4.1-22.3-3.4-5.2-5.9-3.8-9.96November 1, 2012Exhibit 4: Mutual funds equity positions declined slightly in 3Q2012100%ChinaExhibit 5: Total AUM increased to Rmb2.48tn in 2Q2012 from Rmb2.29tn i
38、n1Q20123,50090%80%70%3,0002,500(Rmb bn)60%50%40%30%20%OthersCashWarrantFundBondEquity2,0001,5001,000OthersCashWarrantFundBondEquity10%0%Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchExhibit 6: Equity position of equity-focused mutual funds*5000Source: Wind, Gao Hua Secur
39、ities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchExhibit 7: Aggregate AUM of all equity-focused mutual funds investing indomestic markets100%90%8.110.12,500(Rmb bn)AUM of equity focused mutual funds118.4Change in AUM (RHS)(%)14012080%70%81.077.82,00010060%50%CashOthersWarrant1,50060.985.479.178.6 80.
40、6806040%Fund30%20%BondEquity1,00040.536.741.723.120.921.7402010%0%5002.711.28.60.6 -0.7-9.92.8-23.9-12.4-16.213.8 13.6-13.70.4 0-1.31.8-5.4 -7.4-20*We include only those actively managed equity mutual funds in the calculation (thus excluding indexedfunds and ETFs, etc).0Mar-03Mar-04Mar-05Mar-06Mar-0
41、7Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12-40Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchGoldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy ResearchSource: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS Research-32.2-28.5-39.423.1-28.5-73.0-129.17November 1, 201
42、2Exhibit 8: The whole mutual fund industry saw net subscription of -99.3 bnfund units in 3Q2012ChinaExhibit 9: Total subscription was 930.8bn units while total redemption was1030.1bn units in 3Q2012 for all mutual funds6,000Fund unit net purchases (RHS)CSI300 Index(bn units)6001,200(bn shares)Total
43、new subscription6005,000521.85001,000521.8Total redemptionFund unit net purchases (RHS)5004004004,000319.9300800319.93003,0002,0001,000-39.4-174.8-2.497.6171.29.8206.811.8-55.223.1-20.3-73.0-90.1-111.3 -111.0-129.1-145.0-52.8 -56.2143.728.0-99.32001000-100-200600400200-32.2-174.8-2.497.6171.29.8206.
44、811.8-272.6-111.3 -111.0-20.3-145.0-90.1-55.2 -52.8 -56.2143.728.02001000-100-99.3-200-3000-272.6-3000-400Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-1206-0307-0308-0309-0310-0311-0312-03Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchExhibit 10: All categories of funds includ
45、ing equity, mixed, fixed income,monetary market funds and others, saw net redemption in 3Q2012Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchExhibit 11: Fund size distribution: around 80% mutual funds have a size lowerthan Rmb3 bn600OthersMixed FundsMonetary market fundsE
46、quity fundsFixed income funds450422 (Units)Mutual fund distribution by size(bn units)4004003502000300250200148 150150-2001007557-4005034251621126183000.5 12345678910 20 =30-60006-0307-0308-0309-0310-0311-0312-03(Rmb bn)Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchGoldma
47、n Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy ResearchSource: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS Research1H20042H20041H20052H20051H20062H20061H20072H20071H20082H20081H20092H20091H20102H20101H20112H20111H20121008November 1, 2012Exhibit 12: Mutual funds AUM by categoryExhi
48、bit 13: Distribution of equity focused mutual funds return in 3Q2012China3,5003,000(RmbOthersFixed income mutual fundEquity mutual fundMonetary market mutual fundMixed mutual fund90Distribution of return (equity focused mutual funds, June 30 2012 to September 302012)9292(Units)802,500702,00060505747
49、1,50040301,00030202550010810(%)1310100Mar-03Mar-04Mar-05Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12-12-10.4-8.8-7.2-5.6-4-2.4-0.80.82.445.67.2Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS Research.Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS Research.Exhibit
50、 14: A-share mutual funds equity holding only accounted for a small portion of the total market capA share market investor distribution100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS Research.Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy
51、 ResearchMutual FundRetail InvestorsOthersOrdinary legal personsLockup shares9November 1, 2012Exhibit 15: Large cap, mid caps and small caps: small caps underperformed slightly vs. large-mid caps in 3Q2012China100%90%80%(X)21.81.670%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%1.41.210.80.60.40.20Small Cap (LHS)Middle Cap (
52、LHS)Large Cap (LHS)CSI500/CSI100Ratio(RHS)Mar-03Mar-04Mar-05Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchExhibit 16: Sector weightings shift (by A-share equity-focused mutual funds) since 1Q2003100%90%ConglomeratesMedia and cult
53、ural serviceSocial servicePropertyIT80%Transportation and warehousingConstruction70%Productionand supply of power, gas andwaterOther manufacturing60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Smelting and processingElectronicsChemical,rubber and plasticsPaper and pressWoods and furnitureTextile, clothes, furFoods and beverag
54、eOil, coal, and other miningsAgriculture, forestry, farming and fisheryRetail and wholesalePharma and biotech productsMachinery, equipment and instrumentsFinancial and insuranceMar-03Mar-04Mar-05Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global
55、ECS ResearchGoldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy ResearchMediaandculturalserviceSmeltingandprocessingConstructionAgriculture,forestry,farmingandfisheryTransportationandwarehousingFinancialandinsuranceOthermanufacturingSocialserviceITWoodsandfurniturePropertyMachinery,equipmentand
56、instrumentsConglomeratesElectronicsPharmaandbiotechproductsProductionandsupplyofpower,gasandwaterChemical,rubberandplasticsOil,coal,andotherminingsRetailandwholesaleFoodsandbeveragePaperandpressTextile,clothes,fur(%)2.17.77.62.60.12.01.20.90.50.1-0.3-0.1-7.7-16.730(%)2510November 1, 2012Exhibit 17:
57、Compared with previous quarter, equity-focused funds add/cutexposure by sector in 3Q2012Sector position change vs previous quarterPharma and biotech productsChinaExhibit 18: Compared with CSI300 index weighting, the equity-focusedmutual funds OW Health care sector the most, and UW financials the mos
58、tMutual fund weightings vs. CSI300 index weightingsPharma and biotech productsFoods and beverage0.9Foods and beverageElectronicsITChemical,rubber and plasticsSocial serviceMedia and cultural serviceAgriculture, forestry, farming and fisheryOther manufacturingProduction and supply of power, gas and w
59、aterPaper and pressWoods and furnitureConstructionConglomeratesOil, coal, and other miningsTransportation and warehousingRetail and wholesale-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.30.10.10.10.00.40.80.80.70.6ElectronicsSocial servicePropertyITRetail and wholesaleChemical,rubber and plasticsMedia and cultural serviceTextile
60、, clothes, furConstructionAgriculture, forestry, farming and fisheryPaper and pressWoods and furnitureOther manufacturingProduction and supply of power, gas and waterMachinery, equipment and instruments-1.30.50.30.13.93.12.82.8Textile, clothes, furSmelting and processingMachinery, equipment and inst
61、ruments-1.3-0.4-0.4ConglomeratesTransportation and warehousingSmelting and processingOil, coal, and other minings-5.6-1.5-2.9Financial and insurance -1.7Property -1.7Financial and insurance-20-15-10-50510-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5Exhibit 19: 3Q2012 sector return vs. sector position changesSe
62、ctor return QoQ vs. Sector position changes (2Q 2012 to3Q 2012)Exhibit 20: The current sector weighting vs. historical range of sectorweighting for each sectorHigh point since 1Q2007Low point since 1Q20072.52.01.51.0(%)y = 0.127x + 0.8175R = 0.2532015105Current level00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.5(%-2.0-14-12-1
63、0-8-6-4-20Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchGoldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy ResearchSource: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS Research698911November 1, 2012ChinaExhibit 21: 20 stocks with the largest increase
64、in number of equity-focused mutual funds holding the stock and 20 stocks with thelargest increase in the stake held by equity-focused mutual fundsPanel A: 20 stocks with the largest increase in number of equity-focused mutual funds holding the stockCompanyWind Ticker GICS Industry GroupFloat MarketC
65、ap (Rmb bn)2012-10-31No. of funds with stock asTop 10 holdings2012-9-302012-6-30Changes from previous % of float market cap Total Return inperiod owned by fund (%) 3Q 2012 (%)KWEICHOW MOUTACHINA NATIONALWULIANGYE YIBINTASLY PHARMACSHANDONG GOLD-MISHANGHAI JAHWAANHUI USTCHUAYU AUTOMZHEJIANG DAHUAJIAN
66、GSU KANIONKANGMEI PHARMACHINA LIFE INSCHINA CAMCJIANGSU HENGRUHUADONG MEDICICHINA NATIONALCHINA RESOURCEEAST CHINA ENGANHUI CONCHBLUEFOCUS COMMAverageMedian600519.SH601117.SH000858.SZ600535.SH600547.SH600315.SH002230.SZ600741.SH002236.SZ600557.SH600518.SH601628.SH002051.SZ600276.SH000963.SZ000028.SZ
67、000999.SZ002140.SZ600585.SH300058.SZFood Beverage & TobaccoCapital GoodsFood Beverage & TobaccoPharmaceuticals, BiotechnologyMaterialsRetailingSoftware & ServicesAutomobiles & ComponentsTechnology Hardware & EquipmenPharmaceuticals, BiotechnologyPharmaceuticals, BiotechnologyInsuranceCapital GoodsPh
68、armaceuticals, BiotechnologyHealth Care Equipment & ServicHealth Care Equipment & ServicPharmaceuticals, BiotechnologyCapital GoodsMaterialsCommercial & Professional Serv256.810.2127.527.352.921.39.222.913.26.637.4361.513.937.19.77.68.19.065.94.655.117.62073298472344212146227632214128221816232343261
69、73107727428532642093017116141428143422212019161615141312121211111110109151310.119.67.818.82.429.612.55.633.426.220.90.68.410.027.620.616.16.15.124.215.314.34.420.23.517.727.020.644.35.733.631.72.63.312.55.614.213.85.821.67.827.616.214.0Panel B: 20 stocks with the largest increase in the stake held b
70、y equity-focused mutual fundsCompanyWindTickerGICS Industry GroupFloat MarketCap (Rmb bn)2012-10-31% of float market cap owned Changes from previous % of float market cap Total Return inby fund period (%) owned by fund (%) 3Q 2012 (%)2012-9-302012-6-30HEFEI MEIYA OPYINBANG CLAD M002690.SZ300337.SZCa
71、pital GoodsMaterials1.10.925.522.825.522.825.522.838.028.5GLODON SOFTWARJIANGSU KANIONLIAONING JULONSVG OPTRONICSHARBIN GLORIAXINZHI MOTOR CO-SHENZHEN DASSHENZHEN LUXSHBEIJING LEADMACHINA RESOURCEZHEJIANG DAHUABEIJING JETSENCHINA NATIONALGUIZHOU YIBAISHANDONG LONGQXIZANG HAISCOBEIJING DABEINBEIJING
72、E-HUALAverageMedian002410.SZ600557.SH300202.SZ300331.SZ002437.SZ002664.SZ002421.SZ002475.SZ300289.SZ000999.SZ002236.SZ300182.SZ000028.SZ600594.SH002671.SZ002653.SZ002385.SZ300212.SZSoftware & ServicesPharmaceuticals, BiotechnologyTechnology Hardware & EquipmenTechnology Hardware & EquipmenPharmaceut
73、icals, BiotechnologyAutomobiles & ComponentsConsumer Durables & ApparelCapital GoodsPharmaceuticals, BiotechnologyPharmaceuticals, BiotechnologyTechnology Hardware & EquipmenSoftware & ServicesHealth Care Equipment & ServicPharmaceuticals, BiotechnologyCapital GoodsPharmaceuticals, BiotechnologyFood
74、 Beverage & TobaccoSoftware & Services1.76.61.40.51.80.71.82.80.98.113.21.17.67.60.61.27.52.33.51.826.226.217.815.715.814.914.331.612.216.133.42.82.72.81.224.717.49.616.716.06.68.318.85.222.71.41.31.514.87.68.87.119.518.217.815.715.814.914.312.812.211.11.81.41.31.41.29.99.79.611.912.526.226.217.815.
75、715.814.914.331.612.216.133.42.82.72.81.224.717.49.616.716.0-26.931.726.850.3-19.615.632.64.213.55.833.64.313.85.82.56.510.053.016.513.7Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, GS Global ECS ResearchGoldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research5462412November 1, 2012ChinaExhibi
76、t 22: 20 stocks with the largest decrease in number of equity-focused mutual funds holding the stock and 20 stocks with thelargest decrease in the stake held by equity-focused mutual fundsPanel C: 20 stocks with the largest decrease in number of equity-focused mutual funds holding the stockCompanyWi
77、nd Ticker GICS Industry GroupFloat MarketCap (Rmb bn)No. of funds with stock asTop 10 holdingsChanges fromprevious period% of float market cap Total Return inowned by fund (%) 3Q 2012 (%)2012-10-312012-9-302012-6-30POLY REAL ESTAGEMDALE CORPCHINA VANKE COPING AN INSURAZOOMLION HEAVYCITIC SECURITIBEI
78、JING CAPITACHINA PACIFICNEW CHINA LIFESANY HEAVY INDUSCHINA MERCHANTSINOHYDRO GROUCHINA MERCH BKSHANG PUDONGYANTAI CHANGYUJOEONE CO LTDSHENZEN OVERSEBEIJING URBANJIANGSU ZHONGHUBEI FUXINGAverageMedian600048.SH600383.SH000002.SZ601318.SH000157.SZ600030.SH600376.SH601601.SH601336.SH600031.SH000024.SZ6
79、01669.SH600036.SH600000.SH000869.SZ601566.SH000069.SZ600266.SH000961.SZ000926.SZReal EstateReal EstateReal EstateInsuranceCapital GoodsDiversified FinancialsReal EstateInsuranceInsuranceCapital GoodsReal EstateCapital GoodsBanksBanksFood Beverage & TobaccoConsumer Durables & ApparelConsumer Services
80、Real EstateCapital GoodsMaterials79.323.380.4185.752.6106.915.3111.33.563.115.510.2178.1112.119.82.118.39.611.44.255.121.5873482166135585744040192362331612565104187327326742121551954321814331513115032-38-31-22-21-19-18-18-17-17-16-15-15-14-13-12-12-10-9-9-9-17-1611.513.511.99.31.13.55.73.61.50.625.9
81、5.32.82.21.68.411.914.16.82.67.25.5-5.1-22.4-4.0-7.5-11.8-3.3-25.8-8.8-27.4-29.3-15.2-27.9-7.0-9.2-30.5-29.7-12.2-27.2-24.4-19.8-17.4-17.5Panel D: 20 stocks with the largest decrease in the stake held by equity-focused mutual fundsCompanyWindTickerGICS Industry GroupFloat MarketCap (Rmb bn)% of floa
82、t market capowned by fundChanges fromprevious period (%)% of float market cap Total Return inowned by fund (%) 3Q 2012 (%)2012-10-312012-9-302012-6-30JOEONE CO LTDZHEJIANG KAISHHUNAN MENDALELUOLAI HOME TESHENZHEN FUANNNEW CHINA LIFESUNWODA ELECTRJIANGSU ZHONGSINOER MENSXIAMEN MEIYAJIANGXI ZHENGBGUAN
83、GDONG ALPHSHENZHEN INOVAEAST MONEY INFSURFILTER NETWSHIJIAZHUANG YZHEJIANG YASHASHANGHAI KINGSSINOHYDRO GROUGF SECURITIESAverageMedian601566.SH300257.SZ002397.SZ002293.SZ002327.SZ601336.SH300207.SZ000961.SZ002485.SZ300188.SZ002157.SZ002292.SZ300124.SZ300059.SZ300311.SZ002603.SZ002375.SZ300253.SZ6016
84、69.SH000776.SZConsumer Durables & ApparelCapital GoodsConsumer Durables & ApparelConsumer Durables & ApparelConsumer Durables & ApparelInsuranceCapital GoodsCapital GoodsConsumer Durables & ApparelTechnology Hardware & EquipmenFood Beverage & TobaccoConsumer Durables & ApparelCapital GoodsSoftware &
85、 ServicesSoftware & ServicesPharmaceuticals, BiotechnologyConsumer ServicesHealth Care Equipment & ServicCapital GoodsDiversified Financials2.12.30.65.61.43.50.911.40.80.62.37.82.41.90.22.15.71.010.231.64.72.28.413.60.11.91.50.26.84.53.717.615.336.49.45.31.38.45.331.831.614.814.115.614.813.418.21.71
86、.514.412.626.28.58.323.644.717.613.49.116.814.6-23.4-18.3-14.8-14.0-13.8-13.3-13.2-11.4-1.7-1.5-9.9-8.8-8.5-8.5-8.3-8.3-8.4-8.2-8.8-7.9-10.6-8.88.413.60.11.91.50.26.84.53.717.615.336.49.45.31.38.45.3-29.7-14.0-38.0-37.4-22.7-27.4-9.5-24.4-27.05.1-11.5-10.6-16.9-13.0-9.60.72.3-9.3-27.9-7.3-16.4-13.5S
87、ource: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research, GS Global ECS Research.Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research13November 1, 2012Exhibit 23: Mutual fund sector weighting vs. sector index performance:Agriculture, forestry, farming, and fisheryChinaExhibit 24: Mutual fund sector wei
88、ghting vs. sector index performance: oil,coal, and other minings2.0Agriculture, forestry, farming and fishery1,60014.0Oil, coal, and other minings7,0001.8(%)Agriculture, forestry, farming and fishery sector index (RHS)(Index)1,40012.0(%)Oil, coal, and other minings sector index (RHS)(Index)6,0001.61
89、,2001.410.05,0001.21.00.80.61,0008006008.06.04.04,0003,0002,0004000.40.20.020002.00.01,0000Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchExhibit 25: Mutual fund sector weighting vs. secto
90、r index performance: Foodsand beverageSource: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchExhibit 26: Mutual fund sector weighting vs. sector index performance:Textile, clothes, and fur16.0(%)Foods and beverageFoods and beverage sector index (RHS)(Index)4,0001.8(%)Textile, clo
91、thes, furTextile, clothes, fur sector index (RHS)(Index)1,80014.012.010.08.06.04.02.00.03,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,00050001.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.01,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities R
92、esearch estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchGoldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy ResearchSource: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS Research14November 1, 2012Exhibit 27: Mutual fund sector weighting vs. sector index performance:Woods and furnitureChinaExhibit
93、 28: Mutual fund sector weighting vs. sector index performance: Paperand press0.4(%)Woods and furnitureWoods and furniture sector index (RHS)(Index)2,0001.4(%)Paper and pressPaper and press sector index (RHS)(Index)1,6000.41,8001.21,4001,6000.31,4001.01,2000.30.20.21,2001,0008000.80.61,0008006000.16
94、004000.44000.10.020000.20.02000Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchExhibit 29: Mutual fund sector weighting vs. sector index performance:Chemical, rubber, and plasticsSource: Wi
95、nd, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchExhibit 30: Mutual fund sector weighting vs. sector index performance:Electronics9.0(%)Chemical,rubber and plasticsChemical,rubber and plastics sector index (RHS)(Index)2,5006.0(%)ElectronicsElectronics sector index (RHS)(Index)1,2008.
96、07.06.02,0005.04.01,0008001,5005.04.01,0003.06003.02.01.05002.01.04002000.000.00Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchGoldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Rese
97、archSource: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS Research15November 1, 2012Exhibit 31: Mutual fund sector weighting vs. sector index performance:Smelting and processingExhibit 32: Mutual fund sector weighting vs. sector index performance:Machinery, equipment, and instrumentsChi
98、na18.016.0(%)Smelting and processingSmelting and processing sector index (RHS)(Index)4,0003,50020.018.0(%)Machinery, equipment and instrumentsMachinery, equipment and instruments sector index (RHS)(Index)3,5003,00014.012.03,00016.014.02,50010.08.06.04.02.00.02,5002,0001,5001,000500012.010.08.06.04.0
99、2.00.02,0001,5001,0005000Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchExhibit 33: Mutual fund sector weighting vs. sector index performance:Pharma and biotech productsSource: Wind, Gao H
100、ua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchExhibit 34: Mutual fund sector weighting vs. sector index performance: Othermanufacturing14.012.0(%)Pharma and biotech productsPharma and biotech products sector index (RHS)(Index)3,0002,5000.60.5(%)Other manufacturingOther manufacturing sector
101、 index (RHS)(Index)1,2001,00010.08.06.04.02,0001,5001,0000.40.30.28006004002.00.050000.10.02000Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchGoldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities an
102、d Strategy ResearchSource: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS Research16November 1, 2012Exhibit 35: Mutual fund sector weighting vs. sector index performance:Production and supply of power, gas, and waterExhibit 36: Mutual fund sector weighting vs. sector index performance:Co
103、nstructionChina4.0Production and supply of power, gas and water2,5004.02,500(%)Production and supply of power, gas and water sector index (RHS)(Index)(%)ConstructionConstruction sector index (RHS)(Index)3.53.02,0003.53.02,0002.52.01.51,5001,0002.52.01.51,5001,0001.00.55001.00.55000.000.00Mar-06Mar-0
104、7Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchExhibit 37: Mutual fund sector weighting vs. sector index performance:Transportation and warehousingSource: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates,
105、 GS Global ECS ResearchExhibit 38: Mutual fund sector weighting vs. sector index performance: IT8.0(%)Transportation and warehousingTransportation and warehousing sector index (RHS)(Index)4,0009.0(%)ITIT sector index (RHS)(Index)1,6007.06.03,5003,0008.07.01,4001,2006.05.04.03.02,5002,0001,5005.04.03
106、.01,0008006002.01.00.01,00050002.01.00.04002000Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchGoldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy ResearchSource: Wind, Gao Hua Securit
107、ies Research estimates, GS Global ECS Research17November 1, 2012Exhibit 39: Mutual fund sector weighting vs. sector index performance: Retailand wholesaleExhibit 40: Mutual fund sector weighting vs. sector index performance:Financial and insuranceChina14.0(%)Retail and wholesaleRetail and wholesale
108、sector index (RHS)(Index)3,50030.0(%)Financial and insuranceFinancial and insurance sector index (RHS)(Index)4,50012.03,00025.04,0003,50010.02,50020.03,0008.06.04.02,0001,5001,00015.010.02,5002,0001,5001,0002.00.050005.00.05000Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10M
109、ar-11Mar-12Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchExhibit 41: Mutual fund sector weighting vs. sector index performance:PropertySource: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchExhibit 42: Mutual fund sector weighting vs. sector index per
110、formance: Socialservice12.0(%)PropertyProperty sector index (RHS)(Index)4,0004.5(%)Social serviceSocial service sector index (RHS)(Index)2,5003,5004.010.03,0003.52,0008.02,5003.02.51,5006.02,0002.04.01,5001.51,0002.01,0005001.00.55000.000.00Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Mar-06Mar-07Mar-0
111、8Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchGoldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy ResearchSource: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS Research18November 1, 2012Exhibit 43: Mutual fund sector weighting v
112、s. sector index performance:Media and cultural serviceExhibit 44: Mutual fund sector weighting vs. sector index performance:ConglomeratesChina2.5(%)Media and cultural service(Index)2,0002.5(%)ConglomeratesConglomerates sector index (RHS)(Index)2,000Media and cultural service sector index (RHS)1,8001
113、,8002.01.51.00.50.01,6001,4001,2001,00080060040020002.01.51.00.50.01,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Source: Wind, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates, GS Global ECS ResearchGoldman Sachs Global Economics, Commoditi
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