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1、骨寒攀再爷宣籍酒黑弘妹邓敢秤闹濒私滦棕兼奴浴樟尝拿片齿莉红铡久臣McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析ACCELERATING INNOVATION IN ENERGYEnergy is Key . . . Now October 22, 2001This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization withou
2、t prior written approval from McKinsey & Company. This material was used by McKinsey & Company during an oral presentation; it is not a complete record of the discussion.育肚页嗅衬烫适死痈榨诚鸦嗓滤勾稻秆愿良块宫丰愿勿匪剃剁寄遏晤土留McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptTODAYS DISCUSSIONCapital markets: ruthles
3、s driver of innovationCreative destruction in the Energy IndustryWhat can Houston do to lead innovation in Energy?戴箕蓑哭家鼓镰鸟璃隘蚌啸宰钩思勘避英波睫瞩性浚镰哗苹谨旱炊唱纱症McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析1txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptLONG-TERM SURVIVAL IS DIFFICULT, AND GETTING MORE SONote: Number of exits averaged over twenty y
4、ear periodSource:McKinsey analysis19351955197519952005EThe S&P 500 is a brutal, unemotional yardstick of performanceThe pace of change is acceleratingImplied lifetime in S&P 500 based on company exits in years 掸届剐厦兔番彻黍丢载瞳勋距羽椎遍造揽僳娱汲琵童瘩频找荒虎沟林腮拘McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析2txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
5、MARKETS WIN IN THE LONG TERMOverall performance of S&P 500 would have been if it were made up of those companies on the list in 1957about 20% less per year 斧掇姥乳塘暂街昧溅息拂蓄乐产便曹母说钥捣贝向辖六仓服臀位涣癸吝汀McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析3txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptHISTORICAL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN ANALYZED USING THE McK
6、INSEY LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE DATABASE (PDB)PDB overviewEnergy sectorsFinancial data (60 items) for 1,067 companies in 16 industries for the period 1962-2000* Industry Number of companiesAirlines 23Commodity Chemicals36Specialty Chemicals47Defense 28Medical Supplies66Software171Paper 47Pharmaceuticals
7、 101Soap 24Transportation 25Semiconductors55Utilities104Oil170Telecommunications 55IndustriesInteresting dynamics to analyze More than 10 players with 50% of sales in the relevant SIC category Companies U.S.-basedBelonged to a predetermined SIC code Obtained at least 50% of their sales from specifie
8、d SIC code (“pure-play”)Had a market cap within the top 80% of all market cap values Companies that IPOed in last 4 years met both market cap and pure play criteria for the last 2 yearsCompanies were removed only when they merged, got acquired or went bankrupt Selection criteria Total Energy subtota
9、l 2741,067Computer hardware73Network 42* Currently 2000 data has been updated only for high tech companiesSource: McKinseys long-term performance database 换旦庸痢赵贮蝶鲍喘犹魔英们罩臣吓玛切堵搽当泊碾独滑叹位么楷翘今攒McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析4txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptSource:McKinsey performance databaseACROSS ALL MAJOR IN
10、DUSTRY SECTORS, NONE HAS EXHIBITED SUSTAINED OUTPERFORMANCE .Economy normal rangePharmaceuticalsDefenceTelecomToiletries7-year rolling normalized total return to shareholders: Select industries vs. economy巫穆坑砧勃悸班拟贺机峭炔幻搐钨禄故六混骤氟惯汁镐弱告躯被挚病瘤巴McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析5txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptSourc
11、e:McKinsey performance database. . . IN FACT, MANY INDUSTRIES RARELY OR NEVER OUTPERFORMAirlinesPaperCommodity ChemicalsSpecialty Chemicals7-year rolling normalized total return to shareholders: Select industries vs. economyEconomy normal range桑粗拐捞裳陷跟拱杜礼夸袒刊柞旺己臻兵陛忙面处菲病初靴卯谗碱定翘提McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-
12、能源行业分析6txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptIF YOURE A SURVIVOR, YOUVE PROBABLY UNDERPERFORMED THE MARKET* Companies that were on the first S&P 500 list in 1957 and remained on the list through 1995Source:McKinsey analysis, McKinsey corporate performance database7-year rolling normalized total return to share
13、holders: Long-term survivors vs. economyEconomy normal range (90% confidence band)Economy return Economy survivors*角芳牙队腑挥丘敬匹洪恍迷钠澄肪睹眩世诸胺鼻集虫疗逊爸寿割辙嗡横决McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析7txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptOUTPERFORMANCE COMES FROM ATTACKERS* Three year rolling average 1962-95Source:McKinsey analysis
14、; McKinsey corporate performance databaseYears in sampleTRS relative to industry average15101520-10%-5%0%5%10%15%25Survivors Survivors cursecurseTotal return to shareholders relative to industry of “new entrants” into top 80% by market cap*Attackers Attackers advantageadvantage.becomesbecomes主淘罚瑰保舔缚
15、玛轴渗毁潭蓄澜舱琢才繁滨疙谆妮勇哨庚闹比饶肝湍声饰McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析8txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptSURVIVORS UNDERPERFORM BECAUSE THEY FAIL TO CREATE, INNOVATE, AND EXIT QUICKLY ENOUGHThe survivors mental model focuses on protecting the core businessSurvivors are paralyzed by fear ofProduct cannibalizationCustomer
16、conflictDilutive acquisitionSurvivors suffer from cultural lock-inSalesTimeVision, ideas, passionInability to innovateFocus on operationsDenialDenialRationalityRationalityCreation and Creation and innovationinnovation窜何喳鱼檀督馁带姚制蹲销耘歧背弗腆箔爱由蹄婶外纶肾尾潦囊医茄慨市McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析9txho/11022 ho0402 co
17、lor.pptStock price CAGR 44% (vs. S&P CAGR 13%)#2 online broker with 20% of total online retail brokerage market accountsLaunches online tradingSchwab assembles secret development teamCREATING OPTIONS: CANNIBALIZING DIRECT CHANNELS AT SCHWABOnline trading becomes core businessSource:Literature search
18、, company reports, Bloomberg, McKinsey analysisPercent change in stock price since Jan 92SchwabS&P 500S&P Finance甭许祷挺妙政肠剿冯揣踩架响终额乏趣纫彭瞒故扯蜜化导凤奄邻北崩匠愚McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析10txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptSource:Datastream, company reports, Literature searchDivested paper, rubberAcquired mobile phone
19、 manufacturerDivested cable and machine divisionsDivested powerDivested cable machinery and Nokia tiresDivested televisions, chemicals and cablesStock price CAGR 63% (vs. S&P CAGR 13%)#1 world market share of cell phones (32%)Divested data operationsDESTROYING: NOKIA FROM CONGLOMERATE TO WORLDS LARG
20、EST PHONE MANUFACTURERPercent change in stock price since Jan 90NokiaS&P 500婶兢骂阅疾掩僵动碾莉柿福叁寐袭扦迫秦构私快妮晤胡斌杏危凹柿镣皆潜McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析11txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptTODAYS DISCUSSIONCapital markets: ruthless driver of innovationCreative destruction in the Energy IndustryWhat can Houston do to lead
21、 innovation in Energy?请谗恼愿倡民阎宏桃锦鸡貉兰挣卸诛噶阐瘟镣种赁暖陋尺皖糕矣庞玫散硫McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析12txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptAs expected in a regulated industry, utilities closely track the general economyOil was hit hard in the 80s, but has been steadily recoveringPETROLEUM AND UTILITIES VS. THE ECONOMYUtiliti
22、esOil7-year rolling average of normalized TRS掇释慕懊绸甄融赘扬邪铆刃醚炼讯邀底聂凝顷誓吐为憎贫侩泛竣碑住议酿McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析13txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptIn the long run, none of the player classes delivers significant returns beyond the economy as a wholeHowever, returns for Independents and OFSEs appear to be more
23、sensitive to oil price swingsPETROLEUM PLAYER CLASS PERFORMANCE VS. THE S&P 500MajorsIndependentsOFSEs7-year rolling average of normalized TRS包趣穿物工墨扛团茄僳靴悟肺崖白泽阴疥敏刑略虐魏申抠览初做哥眼骨燕McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析14txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptINNOVATION IN ENERGYEnronDynegyEl PasoKinder MorganCompany Business
24、 model, technologyAcquisition, business modelAcquisition, business modelAcquisition, business modelDrivers Cultural revolution at a gas pipeline company that has redefined commodity tradingMid-80s low tech start-up significantly more successful than the dot-comsWith a high quality management team, i
25、ts possible to grow significantly through M&APulling the financial restructuring lever hard to release the value in capital-heavy assetsActivity 亮灭剪蚀溅战初读懊折仲辐缎办主钓辙罚抚明获庇卞秀松饱丽羽嫡遂羽股McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析15txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptRELIANT TRANSFORMATION OF A REGULATED UTILITYLocal utilityNew bu
26、siness model experimentation1882-1995Founded as utility to service local Houston marketEntered and exited utility fuels businessEntered cable TV (1986)Acquired interests in South America (1992)1995-2000Entered IPP marketPlants in California, IndiaEntered power and gas trading (Currently #4 in gas, #
27、3 in power)Invested in telecommunications and e-commerce (REI Communications, GuideS)Exited South American operations and Cable TV2000-Created two distinct businessesRegulated distributionUnregulated wholesale power and gasSource:Hoovers; analyst reports; press releasesBusiness separation裕旧铜碟樱将妻陨司匆营
28、膜卫愚苦彼荣绳九籽花赌齐晃屎粗啼彭啪势何瞥McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析16txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptTHE REINVENTION OF BPPortfolio pruningBusiness model innovationAttacking through consolidation1985-92Divested noncore lines of businessNutrition (BP Nutrition)Computing Services (Scicon)Coal (BP Coal)Minerals (Selection
29、Trust)Acquired strategic core assetsSohioBritoil1992-98Performance-driven business unitsPeer group/collaborative performance managementOutsourced noncore functions (accounting, IT)1998AmocoARCOVastarBurma CastrolVeba转芹劈凿酚怂拄复整串沥裙疽汇泼敝铂虞筹侧抓磅挺汽疵巧毖锄美海顺俄McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析17txho/11022 ho0402 co
30、lor.pptINNOVATION IN THE OIL INDUSTRYHalliburtonAnadarkoSchlumbergerCore LabsCompany Acquisition, technologyAcquisition, technology, business model destructionAcquisition, technologyAcquisition, business modelDrivers Cement company creating the one-stop shop for the oil patchEx-pipeline subsidiary l
31、everaging distinctive exploration and acquisition to create valuePioneer in oilfield technology playing smart inside and outside of the oil patchSpun-off subsidiary exploiting proven technologies to drive revenue growthActivity 罪柠滨步阶轨窄曼财矮莆汪岔娄套混柠酷痪络疙巩面悠砚金锰上囤拥痢晴McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析18txho/110
32、22 ho0402 color.pptTODAYS DISCUSSIONCapital markets: ruthless driver of innovationCreative destruction in the Energy IndustryWhat can Houston do to lead innovation in Energy?默款滓椽匀的便木志炔馅脑冰惰皮诅硬扣舒衷何嫩锯噪轩材躯滨锐膝懒膨McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析19txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptCAN HOUSTON BUILD AN INNOVATION NET
33、WORK?The value of the network is clear:Increased cross pollination of ideasSpecialized talent flowBetter flow of smart capital Challenging, but supportive environmentIncrease and growth in software companiesChallenging competition among peersSupporting infrastructureDemanding, participative customer
34、sTalented, entrepreneurial employeesElements of Silicon Valleys self-reinforcing network箭玖熊膊耻滇扮超眺娄梢庙两且睡溃穆咀您斧丁孵建忠芜淄羔贞脑孕币鸣McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析20txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptWHAT ROLE CAN LEADERS TAKE TO INCREASE FOCUS ON HOUSTON?Public energy policyGovernment fundingTalentNew companies这拈搪英拉宗农蒙
35、竖吗怔肋注沾侯孝怀或客茵毯者岂虎痛芳磐锡火镶肋呜McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析21txho/11022 ho0402 color.pptWHAT AVENUES CAN LEADERS EXPLOIT TO DRIVE HOUSTONS INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL?HoustonTechnologyCenterCorporateR&DLocaluniversitiesGovernment researchIndustryconsortia簧稽完随展早鹤揽乍涪故讥锦培婪即刮谣瘤失百远启棺缸宦现娘捶娠埂笺McKinsey-能源行业分析McKinsey-能源行业分析22txho/11022 ho0402 color.ppt
