《SCENEINSINGAPORE：RESULTS：SCI(=)WILMAR(+);GDPFORECASTS&MORE...1112》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《SCENEINSINGAPORE：RESULTS：SCI(=)WILMAR(+);GDPFORECASTS&MORE...1112（14页珍藏版）》请在金锄头文库上搜索。
1、IndicesDeutsche BankMarkets ResearchAsiaASEAN SingaporeStrategyPeriodicalScene in SingaporeDate12 November 2012Gregory Lui, CFA Kevin ChongStrategistResearch Analyst(+65) 6423 5958(+65) 6423 Results: SCI (=), Wilmar (+); GDPAndrew Hill, CFAResearch AnalystElaine Khoo, CFAResearch Analystforecasts &
2、more.(+61) 2 8258 1474 (+65) 6423 6435andrew- Food for ThoughtSembcorp Industries 9M12 sales rose 8% yoy, while PATMI declined 2% yoy,to S$549m (c.75% of our FY12E). In 3Q12, group PATMI declined 19% yoy, toS$181m. The lower 3Q12 result was due mainly to a 48% yoy decline inMarine earnings, which wa
3、s partly offset by a 27% yoy increase in Utilitiesearnings. We have incorporated our latest downgraded SMM forecasts,resulting in a 7-9% cut in 2012-14E earnings for SCI. We maintain our Buyrecommendation on healthy long-term prospects in Utilities and attractivevaluations.Wilmar reported a NP of US
4、$405.8m in 3Q12 (adj. NP of US$388m), beatingconsensus and our estimates of US$330m and US$346m respectively. Thestrong performance was mainly due to a turnaround in oilseeds and sugar aswell as higher consumer product margins. However, divisional sales volumegrowth was lower to flattish. We believe
5、 that given a weaker outlook oncommodities prices (especially soybean due to better harvest), Wilmar maycontinue to deliver stronger earnings in the near term due to lower feedstockcost and hence, higher margins.Deutsche Bank economists believe that Singapores economy remains mired inan uneasy mix o
6、f weak external demand on one side and strong domesticdemand and inflation on to the other side. This mix of outcomes iscomplicating policy options considerably, as analyzed by us extensively inrecent months. The authorities expect GDP growth to be in the 1.52.5% rangethis year, and not a whole lot
7、more next year. Our view is slightly moreoptimistic, but the key point here is that even at these growth rates the level ofoutput would remain above the potential level of GDP. We forecast Q3 GDPgrowth of Singapore to be 2%, up from 1.3% in the last quarter.Wei-Shi WuResearch Analyst(+65) 6423 4114w
8、ei-STI, Volume & IndicesChien-Fie ManResearch Associate(+65) 6423 6897chien-Todays HighlightsDB Key Economic ForecastsAsia Economics Monthly - November Taimur BaigAsia Data Flash - Economic Diary: Nov 12 - 16 Taimur BaigSembcorp Industries Ltd - Utilities shine; division well positionedKevin ChongWi
9、lmar International - Oilseeds delivering profit, beating expectationsEltricia FoongGDP %CPI (YoY%) eopUnemploymentUSD/SGD3m Interbank Rate20114.95.52.1Current1.220.382012F2.54.42.66M1.120.452013F3.03.62.812M1.210.70Press Snippets Companies & Economics & others (pp 8-9)Chart of the Day: Singapore Inf
10、lation - From no-inflation to high inflationSource: CEIC, Deutsche Bank2010 Adrian Jones, Image from B_Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongAll prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other
11、 vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subjectcompanies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors shoul
12、d consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES ANDANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 072/04/2012.12 November 2012Scene in SingaporeEquity NewsAsia Economics Monthly - NovemberProspects have not changed in recent months, with dom
13、estic demand holding updespite a slowdown in external demand. This pattern could persist in the comingquarters.Inflation could remain stubbornly high despite repeated bouts of policy tightening,making economic management particularly tricky.Slow but decent growth - Singapores economy remains mired i
14、n an uneasy mix ofweak external demand on one side and strong domestic demand and inflation onto the other side. This mix of outcomes is complicating policy options considerably,as analyzed by us extensively in recent months.The authorities expect GDP growth to be in the 1.52.5% range this year, and
15、 nota whole lot more next year. Our view is slightly more optimistic, but the key pointhere is that even at these growth rates the level of output would remain above thepotential level of GDP. In its latest macroeconomic review, the Monetary Authorityof Singapore stressed this point, adding that the
16、 economy continues to be at fullemployment (1.9% in September). Hence the yoy growth rates are misleading;Singapores economy remains strong in this cycle.Where is this strength coming from and will those areas continue to supportincome and employment? The key driver seems to be an absence of a major
17、external shock. Weak US/EU demand has long been priced in, whereasdevelopments in China have not been a source of major market dislocation. In thissubdued, but major shock-free environment, Singaporean individuals and firmshave been well supported by exceptionally low interest rates, comfortable liq
18、uidity,strong investor investment, support from public works in infrastructure, and fairlystrong regional demand.The trend is clear: domesticoriented activities such as construction (public andprivate), transportation, and retail operations (+3.2%yoy in August) are helping,while tourism and financia
19、l services remain buoyant despite external headwinds.Credit growth is high by historical standards, and household balance sheets havebeen augmented by substantial wealth effect coming from rising asset prices.Going into 2013, given that global macro environment would likely either beunchanged or get
20、 slightly better, manufacturing and commodity-related industrieswould begin to support the economy as well, in our view. Hence short of a majorexternal shock, growth should pick up modestly next year.The problem with inflation - Inflation was 4.7%yoy in September. A time serieschart of the past 15 y
21、ears presented below underscores how exceptionally highthis outturn is by historical standards. Between 1997 and 2006, average inflationwas less than 1%, while since then it has been close to 4%.Page 2Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong12 November 2012Scene in SingaporeDecades of steady growth have resulted
22、in substantial rise in income and profits,pushing up local demand. Global commodity prices shocks have become morefrequent, and capital flows and foreign buying interests have surged.Consequently, an economy where inflation was a non-issue has become onewhere bringing down inflation has become a maj
23、or challenge. MAS has beentightening monetary policy for well over 2 years to combat inflationary pressure,but during that period inflation has averaged 4.6%, leading to questions about theefficacy of policy tightening through exchange rate appreciation when most of theinflation is coming from non-t
24、radables (mainly accommodation and transportation).The monetary policy officials have correctly pointed out that inflation would havebeen even higher if the exchange rate had not appreciated in the last few years.Indeed, fuel price pass-through has been less due to the currencys climb, butmonetary p
25、olicy seems incapable of dealing with rising domestic costs. Laborsupply is tight, wages are rising, unit labor costs are increasing due to weakproductivity growth (especially in the services sector), and housing andtransportation costs have risen sharply due to strong demand, with no respite insigh
26、t.The authorities dont seem hopeful about inflation heading substantially lower anytime soon. Labor market tightness will most likely persist, wage growth isexpected to continue, and despite a series of tightening measures, it is hard to seeaccommodation and transportation prices easing either. With
27、 this set of likelydevelopments, inflation will stay in the 4-5% range, in our view.This stubborn inflation outlook entails some policy risks. The authorities haverecognized that there is a limit to how much exchange rate appreciation can betolerated, especially while wages are rising and in the abs
28、ence of majorproductivity enhancement in key sectors. As Singapore becomes progressivelymore costly, the risk of manufacturing flight will rise. While we dont see theauthorities abandoning the prevailing monetary policy framework, we do expectmore macro-prudential measures to cool the real estate ma
29、rket and reduce hotflows. There are no easy answers to Singapores current policy dilemma, whichmakes us worry if we are simply going to have live with years of high inflation andsteady erosion of the manufacturing base.DB weblink for the note:http:/ Published: 09 November 2012Taimur Baig, Ph.D(+65)
30、6423 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 312 November 2012Scene in SingaporeAsia Data Flash - Economic Diary: Nov 12 - 16In the coming week, the central bank of Sri Lanka will announce its key policyrates and we expect it to remain unchanged. We forecast Q3 GDP growth of HongKong and Singapore to be 1.5%
31、 and 2%, up from 1.1% and 1.3% in the lastquarter respectively, while Malaysia to have slowed down to 4.8% (from 5.4% inQ2). We also expect IP growth in India to have risen to 3.5% in Sep from 2.7% inAug, and WPI inflation to have edged up further to 7.9% in Oct. (from 7.8% in Sep).We forecast Phili
32、ppines exports to have rebounded in Sep (growing by 20%), whileshipments from Singapore is expected to have declined further by 3.5%.Highlights from elsewhere include Singapore retail sales (5.5%yoy in Sep vs.3.2%yoy in Aug), Malaysia current account balance, and South Koreaunemployment rate.DB webl
33、ink for the note:http:/ Published: 09 November 2012Taimur Baig, Ph.D(+65) 6423 Page 4Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong12 November 2012Scene in SingaporeSembcorp Industries Ltd - Utilities shine; division well positioned(SCIL.SI, Buy, SGD 5.04, Price Target: SGD 6.35)3Q12 Utilities net income up 27% yoy - S
34、CIs 9M12 sales rose 8% yoy, toS$7,374m, while PATMI declined 2% yoy, to S$549m (c.75% of our FY12E). In3Q12, group PATMI declined 19% yoy, to S$181m. The lower 3Q12 result was duemainly to a 48% yoy decline in Marine earnings, which was partly offset by a 27%yoy increase in Utilities earnings. We ha
35、ve incorporated our latest downgradedSMM forecasts, resulting in a 7-9% cut in 2012-14E earnings for SCI. We maintaina Buy on healthy long-term prospects in Utilities and attractive valuations.Utilities continue to perform strongly - Utilities delivered strong results, with 9M12net income growing 36
36、% yoy, to S$294m. The strength came largely fromSingapore, which was up 49% yoy, to S$199m, on additional gas sales and highpower spreads. ASEAN, Australia, India, Middle East, Africa and the Americasexperienced earnings growth. China was slightly flat in 3Q12, but the companyexpects a better 4Q12,
37、due to contributions from its new wind assets. Its UKoperations were weak, due largely to maintenance of Wilton 10 and the defermentof carbon sales.Share price weakness a buying opportunity - SCIs recent share price weaknesshas been due largely to weakness from SMM (Hold, target price S$4.90). Atcur
38、rent prices, Utilities is trading at an attractive implied forward PE of 6.7x, 49%below that of the regional utility peers, at 13.2x. Prospects are healthy, with thefollowing upcoming projects: Woodchip Boiler 2 (2Q13), Banyan Cogen and amulti-utilities facility (4Q13), Andhra Pradesh plant (1H14),
39、and a desalination plantin Fujairah (2H14).Reiterating Buy; risks - Our SOTP is based on our target price for SembMarine,Gallant Ventures market price, and using 12x PE for the Utilities business. Thisyields a target price of S$6.35. Downside risks: execution of projects; unforeseenmarket risks in t
40、he countries in which it has invested; sustained credit problems;contract execution failures for SMM (see page 5 for details).DB weblink for the note:http:/ Published: 09 November 2012Kevin Chong(+65) 6423 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 512 November 2012Scene in SingaporeWilmar International - Oilse
41、eds delivering profit, beating expectations(WLIL.SI, Buy, SGD 3.12, Price Target: SGD 3.50)3Q12 net profit rose 26%, beating consensus and our expectations - Wilmarreported a NP of US$405.8m in 3Q12 (adj. NP of US$388m), beating consensusand our estimates of US$330m and US$346m respectively. The str
42、ongperformance was mainly due to a turnaround in oilseeds and sugar as well ashigher consumer product margins. However, divisional sales volume growth waslower to flattish.Oilseeds and sugar divisions back in the black - Oilseeds recorded a sharp q-qimprovement, posting a pretax profit of US$60m aft
43、er reporting 2 consecutivequarters of losses (1H12 pretax loss: US$92.5m). We attribute this to lowersoybean prices that led to lower feedstock cost and higher margins. Sugar alsoposted a pretax profit of US$101m (1H12 pretax loss: US$108m) as the sugarcrushing season went into full swing in 3Q12. G
44、iven a weaker outlook oncommodities prices (especially soybean due to better harvest), Wilmar maycontinue to deliver stronger earnings in the near term due to lower feedstock costand hence, higher margins.DB weblink for the note:http:/ Published: 09 November 2012Eltricia Foong, CFA(+60) 3 2053 Page
45、6Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong12 November 2012Scene in SingaporePress Snippets CompaniesOCBC says keen to boost Greater China, Indonesia ops(OCBC.SI, Hold, SGD 9.09, Price Target: SGD 9.70)Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp , Singapores second-largest lender, said on Friday itwas keen to put more resources i
46、nto Greater China and Indonesia.Source: Business Times Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. Reproduced with permissionDeadline looms for Thais to raise F&N offer(FRNM.SI, Buy, SGD 9.19, Price Target: SGD 10.23)The market will find out today what Thai tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi isultimately willing to
47、 pay for majority control of Fraser and Neave (F&N) if no rival bidemerges.Source: Business Times Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. Reproduced with permissionMaybank Spore 9-month pre-tax profit up 2.8%Maybank Singapore posted a pre-tax profit of $306.6 million for the nine monthsended Sept 30 - 2.8 per
48、 cent higher than a year ago. This followed a 0.1 per centincrease in total income to $542.4 million, with the bank attributing the tepid growth toSingapores slower pace of expansion.Source: Business Times Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. Reproduced with permissionSBS Transits Q3 profit falls 41% as co
49、sts increaseSBS Transits net profit decelerated sharply in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2012,falling 40.9 per cent to $6.3 million on increased staff, depreciation and maintenancecosts, even as revenue rose 5.9 per cent to $203.8 million on higher average dailyridership.Source: Business Times Si
50、ngapore Press Holdings Ltd. Reproduced with permissionChip Eng Seng Q3 profit up 22%, but down 55% in first 9 monthsMainboard -listed construction and property group Chip Eng Seng on Friday posted a21.8 per cent increase in net profit to S$30.26 million, or 4.57 cents per share, fromS$24.85 million,
51、 or 3.76 cents per share, for the fiscal third quarter ended Sept 30.Source: Business Times Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. Reproduced with permissionUnited Engineers Q3 profit dives 92%United Engineers Limited saw its net profit for the fiscal third quarter ended Sept 30plunge 92 per cent to S$12.80
52、million from S$159.85 million a year ago.Source: Business Times Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. Reproduced with permissionTat Hongs Q2 earnings jump 37%Crane company Tat Hong Holdings reported a net profit of $17.31 million for the fiscalsecond quarter ended Sept 30, 2012, up 37 per cent from $12.63 m
53、illion a year earlier.Source: Business Times Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. Reproduced with permissionPress Snippets Economics and othersNon-landed private homes resale prices up 7.3% in Jan-Oct periodResale prices of non-landed private homes rose over the first 10 months of the year,even as transact
54、ion volumes fell 10.2 per cent. The latest Singapore Real EstateExchange (SRX) Residential Property Flash Report released indicated that overall resaleprices gained 7.3 per cent to $1,133 per square foot (psf), up from $1,056 psf in theyear-ago period.Source: Business Times Singapore Press Holdings
55、Ltd. Reproduced with permissionDeutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 712 November 2012Scene in SingaporeSales down for flats worth $10m and moreSales of luxury condos and apartments priced $10 million and above have taken a hitthis year, with 33 such properties changing hands in the first 10 months, down f
56、rom57 units in the same period last year.Source: Business Times Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. Reproduced with permissionRise in Singapores investments in Iskandar MalaysiaSingapores cumulative investments in Iskandar Malaysia increased by more than athird in just over the first half of this year. Th
57、e republic remains the leading foreignsource of capital for the Johor-based economic zone with one out of every six dollarsof foreign capital that flows in there coming from Singapore.Source: Business Times Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. Reproduced with permissionBanks cross fingers as govt talks to
58、US on tricky tax lawThe government is in talks with the US Department of the Treasury, which will help allfinancial institutions here comply with a new US law to provide details of US accounts.Source: Business Times Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. Reproduced with permissionPage 8Deutsche Bank AG/Hong
59、Kong12 November 2012Scene in SingaporeSingapore focus list, shareholding changes and share buybacksSingapore focus listPrice ($)Price Performance (%)Relative Performance (%)StockRatings11/09/12 Target (S$)% upside1D1 mth3 mth1D1 mth3 mthSTI (FSSTI Index)3,009.56-0.1-1.8-1.4Ascendas Real EstateCapita
60、Commercial TrustCapitaMalls AsiaEzra HoldingsFraser & NeaveKeppel CorpMapletree Commercial TrustNeptune Orient LinesSembcorp IndustriesSATSBuyBuyHoldBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuyBuy2.301.541.891.089.1910.151.201.144.992.812.601.661.961.3610.2313.501.331.456.353.0513.07.83.725.911.333.010.827.827.38.5-1.3-1.60.
61、0-1.81.0-2.2-0.8-2.2-1.00.4-5.73.012.8-3.62.9-9.20.81.8-10.90.40.010.411.815.77.2-11.010.6-2.6-9.812.9-1.2-1.50.1-1.71.1-2.1-0.7-2.1-0.90.4-3.94.814.7-1.74.8-7.42.73.6-9.12.21.411.813.217.18.6-9.612.0-1.2-8.414.3Source: Deutsche BankShareholding changesCompanyShareholderTransactiontypeDate ofchange
62、ofinterestBalance Balanceafter beforetransaction transaction(m) (m)Sharestransacted(m)Valuetraded($m)Av price % hold after %done ($) transaction increaseordecreaseCommentMarathonAssetManagementGUOCOLEISURE LLPOthers08/11/2012 66.0768.78-2.71-1.570.584.83%-0.20%OthersSuntoryBeverage &CEREBOSFood Asia
63、 Pte.PACIFICLtdOthers08/11/2012 314.36309.984.380.000.0099.06%1.38%OthersSuntoryCEREBOSBeverage &PACIFICFood Limited Others08/11/2012 314.36309.984.380.000.0099.06%1.38%OthersSuntoryCEREBOSHoldingsPACIFICLimitedOthers08/11/2012 314.36309.984.380.000.0099.06%1.38%OthersKotobukiCEREBOSRealtyPACIFICCom
64、pany Ltd Others08/11/2012 314.36309.984.380.000.0099.06%1.38%OthersAberdeenAssetManagementOpenYANLORDPLC and itsMarketLAND GROUPSubsidiaries BUY08/11/2012 136.98134.862.122.731.297.03%0.11%PurchaseSource: Singapore ExchangeShare buybackCompanyBIOSENSORS INTL GROUPVENTURE CORPORATIONHO BEE INVESTMENT
65、GLOBAL TESTING CORPORATIONEPICENTRE HOLDINGSSAIZEN REAL ESTATE INV TRUSTNo of shares (m)1.4960.0240.2530.0400.1000.400Av price ($)1.1027.6911.5150.0670.3500.173Total amt paid ($m)1.6490.1850.3830.0030.0350.069Stock price as at 11/09/121.1007.7401.5150.0670.3500.172Source: Singapore ExchangeDeutsche
66、Bank AG/Hong KongPage 912 November 2012Scene in SingaporeAppendix 1Important DisclosuresAdditional information available upon requestDisclosure checklistCompanySembcorp Industries LtdWilmar InternationalTickerSCIL.SIWLIL.SIRecent price*4.99 (SGD) 9 Nov 123.17 (SGD) 9 Nov 12Disclosure14,15NA*Prices a
67、re sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companiesImportant Disclosures Required by U.S. RegulatorsDisclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.Se
68、e Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes.14. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received non-investment banking related compensation from this companywithin the past year.15. This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. within the past yea
69、r, during which time it receivednon-investment banking securities-related services.For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of thisresearch, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-u
70、p page on ourwebsite at http:/ CertificationThis report covers more than one security and was contributed to by more than one analyst. The views expressed inthis report accurately reflect the views of each contributor to this compendium report. In addition, each contributor hasnot and will not recei
71、ve any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this compendium report.Page 10Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongSecurityPriceSecurityPriceDate1.5.2.6.3.7.4.8.3Date1.8.2.9.3.4.5.6.7.12 November 2012Scene in SingaporeHistorical recommendations and target price: Sembcorp Industries Ltd (
72、SCIL.SI)(as of 11/9/2012)7.00Previous RecommendationsStrong Buy6.005.0012345678BuyMarket PerformUnderperformNot RatedSuspended Rating4.003.002.001.000.00Current RecommendationsBuyHoldSellNot RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,2002Nov 10Feb 11May 11Aug 11Nov 11Feb 12M
73、ay 12Aug 1220/01/2011:04/08/2011:05/09/2011:04/11/2011:Buy, Target Price Change SGD7.00Buy, Target Price Change SGD7.20Buy, Target Price Change SGD6.80Buy, Target Price Change SGD6.6527/02/2012:11/05/2012:03/08/2012:09/11/2012:Buy, Target Price Change SGD6.80Buy, Target Price Change SGD6.65Buy, Targ
74、et Price Change SGD6.80Buy, Target Price Change SGD6.35Historical recommendations and target price: Wilmar International (WLIL.SI)(as of 11/9/2012)7.00Previous Recommendations6.005.0012456789Strong BuyBuyMarket PerformUnderperformNot Rated10Suspended Rating4.003.00111213Current RecommendationsBuyHol
75、dSell2.001.000.00Not RatedSuspended Rating*New Recommendation Structureas of September 9,2002Nov 10Feb 11May 11Aug 11Nov 11Feb 12May 12Aug 1222/11/2010:09/01/2011:12/01/2011:02/05/2011:20/07/2011:05/10/2011:12/10/2011:Downgrade to Hold, Target Price Change SGD6.50Hold, Target Price Change SGD5.20Hol
76、d, Target Price Change SGD5.30Hold, Target Price Change SGD5.20Upgrade to Buy, Target Price Change SGD6.40Buy, Target Price Change SGD5.80Buy, Target Price Change SGD5.7007/01/2012:27/02/2012:10. 16/05/2012:11. 15/07/2012:12. 15/08/2012:13. 01/11/2012:Buy, Target Price Change SGD5.90Buy, Target Pric
77、e Change SGD5.70Downgrade to Hold, Target Price Change SGD4.50Upgrade to Buy, Target Price Change SGD4.40Buy, Target Price Change SGD3.60Buy, Target Price Change SGD3.50Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 1112 November 2012Scene in SingaporeEquity rating keyEquity rating dispersion and banking relationsh
78、ipsBuy: Based on a current 12- month view of totalshare-holder return (TSR = percentage change inshare price from current price to projected target priceplus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend thatinvestors buy the stock.45040035030025020056 %38 %Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of tot
79、al share-holder return, we recommend that investors sell thestockHold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months15010050011 %Buy16 %Hold5%13 %Sellout and, based on this time horizon, do notrecommend either a Buy or Sell.Notes:Companies CoveredCos. w/ Banking Relationship1. Newly issued research
80、recommendations andtarget prices always supersede previously publishedresearch.2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were:Buy: Expected total return (including dividends)of 10% or more over a 12-month periodAsia-Pacific UniverseHold:Expectedtotalreturn(includingdividends) between -10% and
81、 10% over a 12-month periodSell: Expected total return (including dividends)of -10% or worse over a 12-month periodPage 12Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong12 November 2012Scene in SingaporeRegulatory Disclosures1. Important Additional Conflict DisclosuresAside from within this report, important conflict di
82、sclosures can also be found athttps:/ under the Disclosures Lookup and Legal tabs. Investorsare strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.2. Short-Term Trade IdeasDeutsche Bank equity research analysts sometimes have shorter-term trade ideas(known as SOLAR ideas) that are consi
83、stent or inconsistent with Deutsche Banksexisting longer term ratings. These trade ideas can be found at the SOLAR link athttp:/.3. Country-Specific DisclosuresAustralia and New Zealand: This research, and any access to it, is intended only forwholesale clients within the meaning of the Australian C
84、orporations Act and NewZealand Financial Advisors Act respectively.Brazil: The views expressed above accurately reflect personal views of the authorsabout the subject company(ies) and its(their) securities, including in relation toDeutsche Bank. The compensation of the equity research analyst(s) is
85、indirectlyaffected by revenues deriving from the business and financial transactions of DeutscheBank. In cases where at least one Brazil based analyst (identified by a phone numberstarting with +55 country code) has taken part in the preparation of this researchreport, the Brazil based analyst whose
86、 name appears first assumes primaryresponsibility for its content from a Brazilian regulatory perspective and for itscompliance with CVM Instruction # 483.EU countries: Disclosures relating to our obligations under MiFiD can be found athttp:/ Disclosures under the Financial Instruments and Exchange
87、Law: Companyname - Deutsche Securities Inc. Registration number - Registered as a financialinstruments dealer by the Head of the Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kinsho) No. 117.Member of associations: JSDA, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association, TheFinancial Futures Association of Japan, Japan
88、 Investment Advisers Association.Commissions and risks involved in stock transactions - for stock transactions, wecharge stock commissions and consumption tax by multiplying the transaction amountby the commission rate agreed with each customer. Stock transactions can lead tolosses as a result of sh
89、are price fluctuations and other factors. Transactions in foreignstocks can lead to additional losses stemming from foreign exchange fluctuations.Moodys, Standard & Poors, and Fitch mentioned in this report are not registeredcredit rating agencies in Japan unless “Japan” or Nippon is specifically de
90、signated inthe name of the entity.Russia: This information, interpretation and opinions submitted herein are not in thecontext of, and do not constitute, any appraisal or evaluation activity requiring alicense in the Russian Federation.Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongPage 13Deutsche Bank AG/Hong KongAsia-
91、Pacific locationsDeutsche Bank AGDeutsche Bank PlaceLevel 16Corner of Hunter & Phillip StreetsSydney, NSW 2000AustraliaTel: (61) 2 8258 1234Deutsche Bank (Malaysia)BerhadLevel 18-20Menara IMC8 Jalan Sultan IsmailKuala Lumpur 50250Deutsche Bank AGFiliale HongkongInternational Commerce Centre,1 Austin
92、 Road West,Kowloon,Hong Kongtel: (852) 2203 8888In association withDeutsche Regis Partners, Inc.Level 23, Tower OneAyala Triangle, Ayala AvenueMakati City, PhilippinesTel: (63) 2 894 6600Deutsche Equities India Pte Ltd3rd Floor, Kodak House222, Dr D.N. RoadFort, Mumbai 400 001SEBI Nos: INB231196834I
93、NB011196830, INF231196834Tel: (91) 22 6658 4600Deutsche Securities Korea Co.17th Floor, YoungPoong Bldg.,33 SeoRin-Dong,Chongro-Ku, Seoul (110-752)Republic of KoreaTel: (82) 2 316 8888Deutsche Securities Inc.2-11-1 NagatachoSanno Park TowerChiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-6171JapanTel: (81) 3 5156 6770Deutsche
94、 Bank AGSingaporeOne Raffles QuaySouth TowerSingapore 048583Tel: (65) 6423 8001MalaysiaTel: (60) 3 2053 6760Deutsche Securities Asia LtdTaiwan BranchLevel 6296 Jen-Ai Road, Sec 4Taipei 106TaiwanTel: (886) 2 2192 2888International locationsIn association withTISCO Securities Co., LtdTISCO Tower48/8 N
95、orth Sathorn RoadBangkok 10500ThailandTel: (66) 2 633 6470In association withPT Deutsche Verdhana IndonesiaDeutsche Bank Building,6th Floor, Jl. Imam Bonjol No.80,Central Jakarta,IndonesiaTel: (62 21) 318 9541Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.60 Wall StreetNew York, NY 10005United States of AmericaTel: (
96、1) 212 250 2500Deutsche Bank AG London1 Great Winchester StreetLondon EC2N 2EQUnited KingdomTel: (44) 20 7545 8000Deutsche Bank AGGroe Gallusstrae 10-1460272 Frankfurt am MainGermanyTel: (49) 69 910 00Deutsche Bank AGDeutsche Bank PlaceLevel 16Corner of Hunter & Phillip StreetsSydney, NSW 2000Austra
97、liaTel: (61) 2 8258 1234Deutsche Bank AGFiliale HongkongInternational Commerce Centre,1 Austin Road West,Kowloon,Hong KongTel: (852) 2203 8888Deutsche Securities Inc.2-11-1 NagatachoSanno Park TowerChiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-6171JapanTel: (81) 3 5156 6770Global DisclaimerThe information and opinions in t
98、his report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively Deutsche Bank). The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from publicsources believed to be reliable. Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such inf
99、ormation.Deutsche Bank may engage in securities transactions, on a proprietary basis or otherwise, in a manner inconsistent with the view taken in this research report. In addition, others within Deutsche Bank, includingstrategists and sales staff, may take a view that is inconsistent with that take
100、n in this research report.Opinions, estimates and projections in this report constitute the current judgement of the author as of the date of this report. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to changewithout notice. Deutsche Bank has no obligation to update,
101、 modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof in the event that any opinion, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes orsubsequently becomes inaccurate. Prices and availability of financial instruments are subject to change without notice. This report is provided for
102、informational purposes only. It is not an offer or a solicitation of anoffer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. Target prices are inherently imprecise and a product of the analyst judgement.As a result of Deutsche Banks March 2010 acquisiti
103、on of BHF-Bank AG, a security may be covered by more than one analyst within the Deutsche Bank group. Each of these analysts may use differing methodologiesto value the security; as a result, the recommendations may differ and the price targets and estimates of each may vary widely.In August 2009, D
104、eutsche Bank instituted a new policy whereby analysts may choose not to set or maintain a target price of certain issuers under coverage with a Hold rating. In particular, this will typically occur forHold rated stocks having a market cap smaller than most other companies in its sector or region. We
105、 believe that such policy will allow us to make best use of our resources. Please visit our website athttp:/ to determine the target price of any stock.The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed investment decis
106、ions. Stock transactions can lead to losses as a result of pricefluctuations and other factors. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investors currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment. Past performance is notnecessarily indicative of fu
107、ture results. Deutsche Bank may with respect to securities covered by this report, sell to or buy from customers on a principal basis, and consider this report in deciding to trade on aproprietary basis.Unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the Deutsche
108、 Bank entity in the investors home jurisdiction. In the U.S. this report is approved and/or distributed by DeutscheBank Securities Inc., a member of the NYSE, the NASD, NFA and SIPC. In Germany this report is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt authorized by the BaFin. In the
109、United Kingdom thisreport is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG London, a member of the London Stock Exchange and regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of investment business in the UKand authorized by the BaFin. This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Deutsc
110、he Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch, in Korea by Deutsche Securities Korea Co. This report is distributed in Singapore by Deutsche Bank AG,Singapore Branch, and recipients in Singapore of this report are to contact Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection
111、with, this report. Where this report is issued orpromulgated in Singapore to a person who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined in the applicable Singapore laws and regulations), Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branchaccepts legal responsibility to such per
112、son for the contents of this report. In Japan this report is approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Securities Inc. The information contained in this report does not constitute theprovision of investment advice. In Australia, retail clients should obtain a copy of a Product Disclosure Statement (PD
113、S) relating to any financial product referred to in this report and consider the PDS before making anydecision about whether to acquire the product. Deutsche Bank AG Johannesburg is incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany (Branch Register Number in South Africa: 1998/003298/10). Additional i
114、nformationrelative to securities, other financial products or issuers discussed in this report is available upon request. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without DeutscheBanks prior written consent. Please cite source when quoting.Copyright 2012 Deutsche Bank AG
