环球商务观察

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1、De-risking the Broadband Business ModelIndustry Outlook 2012 , November 24th 2011, London.Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology EconomicsTechnology, Deutsche Telekom.Changing business models 2Mobile OperatorGardenCS VoiceSMSMobile DataNetworkSIMBilling50 700MHzCloudSIM“New”BillingWhitespaceOTT AppsC

2、oolstuffSmartdevicesRegulationDr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Industry Outlook 2012, November 24th 2011, London, UK.8/26/2024A typical mobile data traffic day in Europe.00:0010:00 12:0022:0017:00Illustration6:008:00voicedataWorkHomeOn theGoHomeOn theGo8/26/20243EU Broadband for All & EverythingDigital Ag

3、enda Europe 2020.2013+2 yrs2011nowAll Europeans have access to Broadband(wireless)All have access to 30 Mbps or higher.2020+9 yrs50+% HH subscribe to 100 Mbps.80%HSPA pop coverage60% 3G adaptation20% HSPA adaptation95%DSLcoverage20%+100% LTE+FTT-eNB+50%FTTH/DOCSISx+ IoT 11 IoT = Internet of Things.C

4、losing coverage gap8/26/20244Digital Agenda Europe 2020 . What does it mean.By 2013 at least 30k HSPA BTS to cover the EU 20+% pop gap.By 2020 most (if not all) base stations support LTE advanced (15 todays fixed broadband earnings.Internet-of-Things (IoT) Network for the 15+ Billion projected devic

5、es11 In Europe for every mobile device there will be 20+ IoT devices in 2020.8/26/20245900 MHz235 MHz(GSM)1800 MHz275 MHz(GSM)2100 MHz260 MHz3G core band3G5555555555552600 MHz270 MHz + 50 MHz (TDD)(Tech neutral)70Spectrum challenge 2012 - Pre-auction days.10FBO 120FBO 210202G(3G)3G2G(3G)3G2G(3G)3G2G

6、(LTE)LTE2G(LTE)LTE2G(LTE)LTE2G(LTE)LTE2G(LTE)LTELTELTELTELTELTEIllustrationUplink onlyAll FDDUn-used spectrumMNO 1MNO 2MNO 3Note: MNO = Mobile Network Operator & FBO = Fixed-Broadband Operator.108/26/20246900 MHz235 MHz(GSM)1800 MHz275 MHz(GSM)2100 MHz260 MHz3G core band3G5555555555552600 MHz270 MHz

7、 + 50 MHz (TDD)(Tech neutral)70Spectrum challenge 2012 - Pre-auction days.10FBO 120FBO 210202G(3G)3G2G(3G)3G2G(3G)3G2G(LTE)LTE2G(LTE)LTE2G(LTE)LTE2G(LTE)LTE2G(LTE)LTELTELTELTELTELTEIllustrationUplink onlyAll FDDUn-used spectrumMNO 1MNO 2MNO 3Note: MNO = Mobile Network Operator & FBO = Fixed-Broadban

8、d Operator.10Billions of Euro in mobile network assets.2G and 3G tightly integrated.By 2012 still more than 20% on 2G.No 100% 3G pop/geo coverage.8/26/20247900 MHz235 MHz(Tech neutral)1800 MHz275 MHz(Tech neutral)2100 MHz260 MHz3G core band3G5MNO2MNO3MNO13G3G555555555555 2600 MHz270 MHz + 50 MHz (TD

9、D)(Tech neutral)70Spectrum challenge 2012major disruption possible.10FBO 120FBO 210202G(3G)3G2G(3G)3G2G(3G)3G5555552G(LTE)5LTE2G(LTE)LTE2G(LTE)LTE2G(LTE)555555LTE52G(LTE)LTELTELTELTELTE555555LTE5800 MHz230 MHz(Tech neutral)LTE5LTELTELTELTELTE55555IllustrationUplink onlyAll FDDNote: MNO = Mobile Netw

10、ork Operator & FBO = Fixed-Broadband Operator.Greenfield reservationSecure min. 210 MHzSecure min. 210 MHzSecure min. 220+ MHzSecure min. 220+ MHzMNO 2 loosespectrum game!108/26/20248900 MHz235 MHz(Tech neutral)1800 MHz275 MHz(Tech neutral)2100 MHz260 MHz3G core band3G5MNO2MNO3MNO13G3G555555555555 2

11、600 MHz270 MHz + 50 MHz (TDD)(Tech neutral)70Spectrum challenge 2012major disruption possible.10FBO 120FBO 210202G(3G)3G2G(3G)3G2G(3G)3G5555552G(LTE)5LTE2G(LTE)LTE2G(LTE)LTE2G(LTE)555555LTE52G(LTE)LTELTELTELTELTE555555LTE5800 MHz230 MHz(Tech neutral)LTE5LTELTELTELTELTE55555IllustrationUplink onlyAll

12、 FDDNote: MNO = Mobile Network Operator & FBO = Fixed-Broadband Operator.Greenfield reservationSecure min. 210 MHzSecure min. 210 MHzSecure min. 220+ MHzSecure min. 220+ MHzMNO 2 loosespectrum game!New entrant buying existing incumbent spectrum.Possible (catastrophic) loss of spectrum.(catastrophic)

13、 Loss of Value and Operation.Loss of future growth possibilities in LTE.108/26/20249De-risking disruptive spectrum moves.Spectrum partnership alliance(s).Value at risk game rather than incremental value add play.Higher degree of network in-dependence Network Factory / Sharing.8/26/202410Spectral dem

14、and could exceed spectral efficiency between 2014 - 2016.When data demand exceeds spectral efficiency gains.”Houston we have problems”.1 Mobile operator with (1) 20MHz 800MHz (LTE), (2) 20MHz 900MHz (2GHSPA),(3) 50MHz 1800MHz (2GLTE), (4) 30MHz 2100MHz (HSPA+). Total spectrum position 120 MHz.Illust

15、ration of the European market 1(*) realWireless report for Ofcom,: 4G Capacity Gains, Final Report, January 2011.3G LTE LTE-aConversionLeapfrog network capacity, e.g., Densificationsmart antennasEarly LTE deploymentPrice, Control & Policy.More spectrum.The spectrum crunch.A lot moreComplexity, Capex

16、 and OpexNOT GOODATALL!8/26/202411OTT Mobile Apps impact.Mobile Apps “attacks” the highest margin services.22.4 112.71 Source 2010 & 2015 Pyramid Research September 2011 Western Europe.2010AMNO CentricARPU15.7Voice3.4SMS3.3Data6.5Voice6.2 1DataBy 2015more than 70%of users have a smartphoneARPU13.0Vo

17、ice3.8SMS2015EMobile CentricARPU6.2 1Data23.08/26/202412OTT Mobile Apps impact.Mobile Apps “attacks” the highest margin services.22.4 112.71 Source 2010 & 2015 Pyramid Research September 2011 Western Europe.2010AMNO CentricARPU2015EApps CentricARPU15.7Voice3.4SMS3.3Data6.5Voice6.2 1Data?By 2015more

18、than 70%of users have a smartphone+9.7+DataARPUARPUMoIP Death to SMS.+43%VoIP Home & maybe Work.8/26/202413Traffic & revenue changes in the last 12 month. Illustration of the European MarketDeclining MinutesDeclining SMSIncreasing DataDeclining ARPU(and top-line)#Customers#Customers#Customers#Custom

19、ers8/26/202414How to uplift the mobile data business case.Demand for new revenue, partnerships & collaboration models.Economics of mobile dataFree Cash Flow20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020Mobile BusinessmodelbreakdownInnovationIncreased spectrum availability.Early LTE deployment.Mobile F

20、ixed partnership models.Structural off-loading1Network APIs.Smarter & network friendlier devices.Femto cells.Network Aware Apps & DevicesInternet of ThingsLocation / Notifications / PaymentsCustomer insightsNew revenue streamsHSPA only, no LTEHSPA + LTE w. 50% off-load from 2012Illustration of the E

21、uropean market1 Note: off-loading here means any traffic migration from legacy technology or legacy spectrum bands to something else.LTE8/26/202415New mobile revenue opportunities making up lost.How big will the piece of the cake be?Mobile Revenues$1,200 BnInternet of Things$1,200 Bn?Social Media$30

22、+ BnMobile Entertain$55+ BnOnline Ads$100+ BnHandsets$340+ BnApps$12+ Bn1 Sources: Apps from Berg Insight (2011), Social Media from Gartner (2011), Mobile Entertainment from Juniper Research (2011), Online Adds from MagnaGlobal (2011), Handsets from MarketsandMarkets (2011), Internet of Things from

23、GSMA (2011).8/26/202416Synched notificationAd-hoc optimized routeVision - network aware mobile apps (1 of 2).Innovation is important remedy to mitigate risk.Optimized service deliveryTraffic ProfilevoicedataPrimary indoor usage off-load possibilities.Off-busy-hour In-fill delivery.N Eventsvs1 Event8

24、/26/202417Vision - network aware mobile apps (2 of 2).Collaboration across Network, Device and Apps.Smart (interconnected) devices Self-Optimized & Cognisant NetworkNetwork optimized OS & Apps8/26/202418When Network is NOT a differentiator.SUBSTANTIAL financial benefits.NOT a solution to spectrum CR

25、UNCH.COMPLEX Governance.Decreasing margins & increasing cash pressureNetwork consolidation & new partnerships. Sharing logicExperience.EconomicsTotal Opex100%TechnologyNetwork 10%RANsavingRAN 7%Cluster Opex40%Rollout 5+ yearsLTEHSPA+HSPA UMTS + GSM (LTE)Significant Capex prevention.Substantial Opex

26、prevention.Best network more for less.RolloutLittle Capex benefits.Substantial Opex savings.High write-off & restructure cost.Steady StateCapex prevention (sharing of modernization).Substantial Opex savings.Minor write-off & contract termination cost. Modernization8/26/202419Transparent off-loading

27、strategies.Inside-out coverage with in-home backhaul connectivity (i.e., via VDSL, Fiber, ).Honest always-best-connected offers.Fixed Mobile Convergence.Technology & business reasons for FMC.Mobile & Fixed the ideal partnershipFixed & Mobile enables:Most mobile data traffic is fixed-like.Usage categ

28、ory80% of traffic in 2 sites or lessNodeSharing 100 Mbps with up-to 7000+ devicesper macro-cellular radio nodeFTTS 100 MbpsFTTH 100+ MbpsCable 100+ MbpsVDSL 40+ MbpsAP (e.g., WiFi or Femto,.)Out-side in coverageHome Environment with ca. 2.3 peopleper HomeversusIn-side out coverageData distribution a

29、cross sites8/26/202420What we need to be passionate aboutDe-risking the broadband business model.How to spend itHow to earn it backInternet of ThingsMonetize social mediaTransformBusiness ModelNew partnership models8/26/202421Thank youContact: kim.larsent-mobile.nlMobile: +31 6 2409 5202http:/ Many thanks to Bin Xi, Claire Hilton, Minoo Abedi and Richard Marijs in particular and of course to my fantastic Technology Economics team for great suggestions and kind advice on how to improve the presentation. 8/26/2024

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